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CNN Live Saturday

Hurricane Research Suffers From Lack of Funding

Aired June 08, 2002 - 12:23   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Now to another force of nature, hurricanes. CNN's John Zarrella takes a closer look at these potentially deadly storms.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): On Labor Day 1935, the most powerful hurricane to hit the United States killed hundreds in the Florida Keys. The federal government's weather bureau was caught off guard.

HUGH WILLOUGHBY: They didn't have a good idea of where it was going to hit or how strong it was going to be, or that all these people were going to die.

ZARRELLA: Now, fast forward to 1995. Hurricane Opal is in the Gulf of Mexico.

WILLOUGHBY: It was a minor hurricane, and it was a long ways away. They weren't calling for an evacuation at all.

ZARRELLA: But overnight, it intensifies. Close to a category five storm. Opal weakens just before land fall. Had it not, some experts envisioned a highway of death.

WILLOUGHBY: Frankly, the failure to forecast rapid intensification, is the way the next hurricane catastrophe is going to happen unless we learn how to do it.

ZARRELLA (on camera): Predicting which hurricanes will grow and which will fizzle is one of the big challenges in meteorology. But many experts say that without increased spending on research, the answers will be hard to find.

(voice-over): They point to Hurricane Bret, which hit Texas in 1999. NOAA research planes were in the air just as the storm exploded. But three years later, scientists are still analyzing the data. The delay is due to years of shrinking budgets.

WILLOUGHBY: We've been losing staff and not replacing them.

ZARRELLA: Many scientists say forecasts will improve when they can improve the mathematical models that run on computers. Two years ago, four government agencies proposed a joint effort to do just that. They're getting about one-fourth the money they said they needed.

DAVID ROGERS, NOAA SCIENTIST: Our plan's basically take longer to yield fruit, but they are still valid and we're still trying to solve the problem.

ZARRELLA: While more accurate forecasts may some day provide more credible warnings, they will not stop hurricanes. That's why the experts warn, don't wait on science or government.

MAX MAYFIELD, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: Take that individual responsibility and develop your own hurricane plan, know what you're vulnerable to, know exactly what you're going to do the next time a hurricane comes.

ZARRELLA: But a Red Cross poll found that 50 percent of people living where hurricanes are most likely to hit do not even have a plan for evacuation. If there's anything worse than an era of more frequent and more powerful hurricanes, it may be the news that so many of us are not prepared for the big one.

John Zarrella, CNN, Miami.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WHITFIELD: And you can see much more tonight on "CNN PRESENTS: Hurricane, When the Big One Hits." That's at 8:00 p.m. Eastern, 5:00 Pacific.

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