Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Live Saturday

Interview With John Holum

Aired October 19, 2002 - 13:14   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: The U.S. is stepping up the pressure on North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program. But can North Korea be contained? Today, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly is calling on North Korea to disarm or face maximum international pressure. With more, we're joined by White House Correspondent Suzanne Malveaux in Washington -- Suzanne.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Fredricka.

It's really high-powered diplomacy that is taking place both in front and behind the scenes. The White House really emphasizing they believe that diplomacy and international pressure is really going to force North Korea to comply to disarm, to comply to that 1994 agreement, this country that President Bush has dubbed the axis of evil.

Now, Assistant Secretary of State James Baker (sic) is overseas. He is bringing that message over there, first in Beijing onto Seoul South Korea, that's where he held a press conference to lay out the Bush administration's case.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAMES KELLY, ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE: North Korea's covert nuclear arms program is a grave concern and a serious violation of its commitments under the agreed framework, the nonproliferation treaty, its safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency and the joint North-South declaration on denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MALVEAUX: Now, Kelly's going to traveling onto Japan as well and President Bush, of course, is going to be getting involved in all of these talks as well. On Friday, he's going to be meeting with China's President Jiang Zemin at his Crawford ranch. That meeting had been scheduled prior to when all this happened but you can bet these talks are really going to be the center focus, this issue of North Korea.

The president also going to be meeting with the leaders of Japan and South Korea at an economic summit next weekend in Mexico. And Fredricka, one of the things that they're looking at as a possible economic options, the United States, perhaps, cutting off fuel assistance to North Korea in the short-term for those non-humanitarian needs and also putting a great deal of pressure on other countries as well, particularly China and Russia, really critical trading partners for North Korea, to really curb that as well, trying to get them to respond to economic pressure as well as diplomacy -- Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: All right. Suzanne Malveaux from the White House, thank you very much.

Well, for further insight on the North Korean nuclear problem, we turn to John Holum in Washington. He is the former director of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency and a former undersecretary of state for arms control.

Good to see you, John.

JOHN HOLUM, FORMER DIRECTOR, U.S. ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT AGENCY: Good to see you.

WHITFIELD: Well, why was the tip-off the purchasing of aluminum? Why would that normally raise the red flag that perhaps there's a buildup of nuclear arms going on here?

HOLUM: My suspicion is that there are -- there is other evidence besides this particular attempt to purchase but the kind of aluminum they were purchasing has very little utility in the quantities they were acquiring other than for nuclear facility for an enrichment program.

WHITFIELD: And what do you read into -- why now, why would North Korea now admit to this kind of buildup?

HOLUM: That's a very complex question. I harbored the suspicion that this might be inadvertent. That, in fact, presented with the evidence on the spur of the moment, the particular North Korean official, that Assistant Secretary Kelly was meeting with, responded by coming clean without having coordinated this with the rest of the government. I suspect it's more likely, however, that this was, in fact, a strategic decision on their part. That they feel the agreed framework for whatever reason no longer serves their interests. And that they could apply more pressure ...

WHITFIELD: Strategic too in that -- strategic too in that they see how the U.S. is now going full throttle with Iraq and its weapons of mass destruction program and that, perhaps, North Korea, this is their way of averting a similar potential showdown?

HOLUM: I don't know. You know Iraq we believe has a nuclear weapons program but there's no hard evidence. In the case of North Korea, they've suddenly said, we have one. It's a highly risky strategy, if it is strategic because, first of all, it costs the agreed framework, which is now out the window, that means 2,000 megawatts of power that they'd have on line in a few years is going to be gone. Our commitment to provide fuel oil is gone and a wide range of potential economic sanctions are in the offing. So this is a strange way to change tactics but given the unpredictability of the North Korean regime, it could be deliberate.

WHITFIELD: We just heard our Suzanne Malveaux report that China and Russia will be in direct communication with the Bush Administration as President Bush now tries to get those two countries involved in how to handle North Korea. What is the strategy here? How do you see that as beneficial?

HOLUM: Well, North -- both Russia and China, as your reporter noted, have very -- are very important trading partners for North Korea. So to the extent that they're prepared to scale back their relationship with North Korea, that can put a very large crimp in the North Korean economy, although it's very hard to hurt something ...

WHITFIELD: It's safe for you -- you see it as safer to go that route as opposed to the U.S. trying to take on North Korea directly, especially after naming it a member of the axis of evil?

HOLUM: I don't think there's a military option here, at least not in the near-term. It's a war different matter to go to war or to contemplate war when we have 37,000 some troops stationed in South Korea and Seoul, is just 25 miles from the demilitarized zone. And we're dealing with a country that has chemical weapons, in all likelihood, has biological weapons, has hundreds of missiles that are capable of reaching Japan. War is by all means the last option rather than the first option here.

WHITFIELD: All right. John Holum, thank you very much for joining us. Appreciate it.

HOLUM: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com








Aired October 19, 2002 - 13:14   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: The U.S. is stepping up the pressure on North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program. But can North Korea be contained? Today, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly is calling on North Korea to disarm or face maximum international pressure. With more, we're joined by White House Correspondent Suzanne Malveaux in Washington -- Suzanne.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Fredricka.

It's really high-powered diplomacy that is taking place both in front and behind the scenes. The White House really emphasizing they believe that diplomacy and international pressure is really going to force North Korea to comply to disarm, to comply to that 1994 agreement, this country that President Bush has dubbed the axis of evil.

Now, Assistant Secretary of State James Baker (sic) is overseas. He is bringing that message over there, first in Beijing onto Seoul South Korea, that's where he held a press conference to lay out the Bush administration's case.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAMES KELLY, ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE: North Korea's covert nuclear arms program is a grave concern and a serious violation of its commitments under the agreed framework, the nonproliferation treaty, its safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency and the joint North-South declaration on denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MALVEAUX: Now, Kelly's going to traveling onto Japan as well and President Bush, of course, is going to be getting involved in all of these talks as well. On Friday, he's going to be meeting with China's President Jiang Zemin at his Crawford ranch. That meeting had been scheduled prior to when all this happened but you can bet these talks are really going to be the center focus, this issue of North Korea.

The president also going to be meeting with the leaders of Japan and South Korea at an economic summit next weekend in Mexico. And Fredricka, one of the things that they're looking at as a possible economic options, the United States, perhaps, cutting off fuel assistance to North Korea in the short-term for those non-humanitarian needs and also putting a great deal of pressure on other countries as well, particularly China and Russia, really critical trading partners for North Korea, to really curb that as well, trying to get them to respond to economic pressure as well as diplomacy -- Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: All right. Suzanne Malveaux from the White House, thank you very much.

Well, for further insight on the North Korean nuclear problem, we turn to John Holum in Washington. He is the former director of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency and a former undersecretary of state for arms control.

Good to see you, John.

JOHN HOLUM, FORMER DIRECTOR, U.S. ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT AGENCY: Good to see you.

WHITFIELD: Well, why was the tip-off the purchasing of aluminum? Why would that normally raise the red flag that perhaps there's a buildup of nuclear arms going on here?

HOLUM: My suspicion is that there are -- there is other evidence besides this particular attempt to purchase but the kind of aluminum they were purchasing has very little utility in the quantities they were acquiring other than for nuclear facility for an enrichment program.

WHITFIELD: And what do you read into -- why now, why would North Korea now admit to this kind of buildup?

HOLUM: That's a very complex question. I harbored the suspicion that this might be inadvertent. That, in fact, presented with the evidence on the spur of the moment, the particular North Korean official, that Assistant Secretary Kelly was meeting with, responded by coming clean without having coordinated this with the rest of the government. I suspect it's more likely, however, that this was, in fact, a strategic decision on their part. That they feel the agreed framework for whatever reason no longer serves their interests. And that they could apply more pressure ...

WHITFIELD: Strategic too in that -- strategic too in that they see how the U.S. is now going full throttle with Iraq and its weapons of mass destruction program and that, perhaps, North Korea, this is their way of averting a similar potential showdown?

HOLUM: I don't know. You know Iraq we believe has a nuclear weapons program but there's no hard evidence. In the case of North Korea, they've suddenly said, we have one. It's a highly risky strategy, if it is strategic because, first of all, it costs the agreed framework, which is now out the window, that means 2,000 megawatts of power that they'd have on line in a few years is going to be gone. Our commitment to provide fuel oil is gone and a wide range of potential economic sanctions are in the offing. So this is a strange way to change tactics but given the unpredictability of the North Korean regime, it could be deliberate.

WHITFIELD: We just heard our Suzanne Malveaux report that China and Russia will be in direct communication with the Bush Administration as President Bush now tries to get those two countries involved in how to handle North Korea. What is the strategy here? How do you see that as beneficial?

HOLUM: Well, North -- both Russia and China, as your reporter noted, have very -- are very important trading partners for North Korea. So to the extent that they're prepared to scale back their relationship with North Korea, that can put a very large crimp in the North Korean economy, although it's very hard to hurt something ...

WHITFIELD: It's safe for you -- you see it as safer to go that route as opposed to the U.S. trying to take on North Korea directly, especially after naming it a member of the axis of evil?

HOLUM: I don't think there's a military option here, at least not in the near-term. It's a war different matter to go to war or to contemplate war when we have 37,000 some troops stationed in South Korea and Seoul, is just 25 miles from the demilitarized zone. And we're dealing with a country that has chemical weapons, in all likelihood, has biological weapons, has hundreds of missiles that are capable of reaching Japan. War is by all means the last option rather than the first option here.

WHITFIELD: All right. John Holum, thank you very much for joining us. Appreciate it.

HOLUM: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com