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CNN Live Saturday

Interview With Ken Rudin

Aired November 02, 2002 - 17:09   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Predicting who will win big in the midterm elections can be the stuff of blue smoke and mirrors, but one man who has helped turn it into an art form is National Public Radio's political editor Ken Rudin, and he joins me here in Washington with some insights on the most pivotal races and let's talk about Minnesota again real quick. We're talking about a very tight race between Mondale and Coleman, and certainly name recognition is a factor, but both of these names are very well known in Minnesota, so what's it going to hang on?
KEN RUDIN, NPR POLITICAL EDITOR: Exactly, as you say Walter Mondale has been a long time senator and vice president, but he has not been on a ballot in Minnesota since 1984 when he lost to Ronald Reagan. Norm Coleman has been running for a Senator for two years. Prior to that he ran for governor and narrowly lost.

Basically, the Coleman people are trying to make the presentation on Monday morning's debate, if you look at Coleman and you look at Mondale, maybe you could do the difference between today and tomorrow, the past and the future. That's what Coleman is trying to present, sort of what Mondale tried to do with Ronald Reagan in 1984 in the debate when there were rumors about Ronald Reagan's age, but obviously Ronald Reagan carried 49 states that year.

WHITFIELD: And when we say tight, we're talking about Mondale with 47 percent and Coleman with 39 percent.

RUDIN: And that's before they see...

WHITFIELD: The debate.

RUDIN: ...the voters have seen the two of them together, right.

WHITFIELD: OK and that's going to be interesting on Monday morning.

RUDIN: Pivotal.

WHITFIELD: All right, Florida, another very pivotal race and certainly when you've got a sitting president and a former president visiting that state and campaigning, is this an indicator that the incumbent Jeb Bush is in trouble?

RUDIN: Well, he's always been in trouble. As a matter of fact, from the day Al Gore was denied the presidency in 2000, Democrats in Florida wanted to exact revenge and they said the first target was going to be Jeb Bush who they say was part of this cabal that denied Gore the presidency. So, Bush's numbers have always been pretty much 50/50 since the 2000 election.

The problem with Bill McBride is that he is not a gregarious candidate. He has far less money than Jeb Bush and the fact that Bill Clinton needs to come to Florida to rally black voters is an indication that McBride may be in some kind of trouble. Again, it's probably a five-point margin at this point with Bush with the lead.

WHITFIELD: And now, national security not just a national issue but being made an issue in Florida, particularly after last week with the number of Haitian immigrants able to get right by the Coast Guard. That certainly does not bode well for Jeb Bush.

RUDIN: No, and Bill McBride has tried to make it an issue. First of all, for the last couple of months McBride has been using the overcrowding of Florida schools. That has helped him a little bit, but that issue seems to have been stalled a little bit, and now we have the issue of immigration and the Haitians' arrival and he's tried to make that an issue to put him over the top.

WHITFIELD: Senatorial race in Missouri, what happened? You would think that Jean Carnahan just might be a shoe-in, but really it's not. It appears as though the criticism has been she's not experienced enough but she wasn't experienced when she took the seat, you know, after her husband died.

RUDIN: Right, but that election happened three weeks after her husband, who was running against John Ashcroft at the time, died in a plane crash and there was so much emotion in that race that Jean Carnahan said if my late husband wins that contest, I will accept appointment to the vacant Senate seat. So there was a lot of emotion in 2000.

A lot of that has dissipated since that time, and now Jim Talent, the former congressman, Republican congressman, who barely lost the governor's race in 2000, very good campaigner, making inroads into the black community, and Jean Carnahan, some people feel has looked uneasy, unsteady as an incumbent.

WHITFIELD: All right, Ken Rudin, good to see you.

RUDIN: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired November 2, 2002 - 17:09   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Predicting who will win big in the midterm elections can be the stuff of blue smoke and mirrors, but one man who has helped turn it into an art form is National Public Radio's political editor Ken Rudin, and he joins me here in Washington with some insights on the most pivotal races and let's talk about Minnesota again real quick. We're talking about a very tight race between Mondale and Coleman, and certainly name recognition is a factor, but both of these names are very well known in Minnesota, so what's it going to hang on?
KEN RUDIN, NPR POLITICAL EDITOR: Exactly, as you say Walter Mondale has been a long time senator and vice president, but he has not been on a ballot in Minnesota since 1984 when he lost to Ronald Reagan. Norm Coleman has been running for a Senator for two years. Prior to that he ran for governor and narrowly lost.

Basically, the Coleman people are trying to make the presentation on Monday morning's debate, if you look at Coleman and you look at Mondale, maybe you could do the difference between today and tomorrow, the past and the future. That's what Coleman is trying to present, sort of what Mondale tried to do with Ronald Reagan in 1984 in the debate when there were rumors about Ronald Reagan's age, but obviously Ronald Reagan carried 49 states that year.

WHITFIELD: And when we say tight, we're talking about Mondale with 47 percent and Coleman with 39 percent.

RUDIN: And that's before they see...

WHITFIELD: The debate.

RUDIN: ...the voters have seen the two of them together, right.

WHITFIELD: OK and that's going to be interesting on Monday morning.

RUDIN: Pivotal.

WHITFIELD: All right, Florida, another very pivotal race and certainly when you've got a sitting president and a former president visiting that state and campaigning, is this an indicator that the incumbent Jeb Bush is in trouble?

RUDIN: Well, he's always been in trouble. As a matter of fact, from the day Al Gore was denied the presidency in 2000, Democrats in Florida wanted to exact revenge and they said the first target was going to be Jeb Bush who they say was part of this cabal that denied Gore the presidency. So, Bush's numbers have always been pretty much 50/50 since the 2000 election.

The problem with Bill McBride is that he is not a gregarious candidate. He has far less money than Jeb Bush and the fact that Bill Clinton needs to come to Florida to rally black voters is an indication that McBride may be in some kind of trouble. Again, it's probably a five-point margin at this point with Bush with the lead.

WHITFIELD: And now, national security not just a national issue but being made an issue in Florida, particularly after last week with the number of Haitian immigrants able to get right by the Coast Guard. That certainly does not bode well for Jeb Bush.

RUDIN: No, and Bill McBride has tried to make it an issue. First of all, for the last couple of months McBride has been using the overcrowding of Florida schools. That has helped him a little bit, but that issue seems to have been stalled a little bit, and now we have the issue of immigration and the Haitians' arrival and he's tried to make that an issue to put him over the top.

WHITFIELD: Senatorial race in Missouri, what happened? You would think that Jean Carnahan just might be a shoe-in, but really it's not. It appears as though the criticism has been she's not experienced enough but she wasn't experienced when she took the seat, you know, after her husband died.

RUDIN: Right, but that election happened three weeks after her husband, who was running against John Ashcroft at the time, died in a plane crash and there was so much emotion in that race that Jean Carnahan said if my late husband wins that contest, I will accept appointment to the vacant Senate seat. So there was a lot of emotion in 2000.

A lot of that has dissipated since that time, and now Jim Talent, the former congressman, Republican congressman, who barely lost the governor's race in 2000, very good campaigner, making inroads into the black community, and Jean Carnahan, some people feel has looked uneasy, unsteady as an incumbent.

WHITFIELD: All right, Ken Rudin, good to see you.

RUDIN: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com