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CNN Live Saturday
Interview With Sandra Mackey
Aired December 07, 2002 - 16:25 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: If Saddam Hussein is removed from power by force or other means what does Iraq become, a democracy or a land torn by civil war? For that we turn to Middle East analyst Sandra Mackey. We're in the CNN Map Room, here, to kind you a little perspective of the region, and Iraq's neighbors and talk a little politics -- and possible war.
Thanks for being with us.
SANDRA MACKEY, MIDDLE EAST ANALYST: Thank you. Nice to be here.
PHILLIPS: Let's talk about Iraq, specifically, right now. And what do you think Saddam could expect from his neighbors if a war against Iraq takes place?
MACKEY: Well, I think this is going to be, of course, critical to American planning. And certainly something we have to think about very carefully ahead of time. Because, obviously, if we are going to send in a force of 250,000 troops to have all the men and equipment, basically, now as they are in Kuwait and Qatar and in the Persian Gulf, it is just not going to be adequate. We need territory from the surrounding countries.
The big question right now, of course, is what is Saudi Arabia going to do, which provided the staging area for American troops in the last Gulf War.
Riyadh is in a very delicate situation, because, obviously, they have a lot of internal problems. They've been developing for a number of years. But the immediate thing they're facing is the fact that there has been a large American presence in Saudi Arabia since the end of the Gulf War. And it has caused a lot of internal conflict in the country. And so that -- they are weighing those. Can they afford to jeopardize their alliance with the United States? On the other hand, can they afford to become involved in another military action on the side of the United States that's been in flames there, more militant citizens?
I think another interesting question would be, what would Iran do?
PHILLIPS: OK?
MACKEY: Iran has actually been contacted by the United States about providing some support or at least not opposing an American invasion. And the Iranians, after these two decades-plus of the Iranian revolution, are beginning to look at the United States as a useful ally against Saddam Hussein. Because I think we need to remember that Iran has been a victim of Saddam Hussein, even much worse than Kuwait was.
PHILLIPS: Of course, President Bush continues to talk about Iran being part of that axis of evil. Even when I was out in the region, Iran was showing support to the U.S., and other allies, when it came to maritime interdiction operations. They were actually lending support when it came to the smuggling that was going on in the waterways, which I thought was very interesting.
MACKEY: Yes. And the Iranians seem to be, you know, open to giving some kind of assistance to the United States. Now, the problem you have, though, is that if the United States sends its -- you know, is trapped in Iraq as a -- and becomes an occupying power, then the Iranians are going to become very, very nervous about this, because they consider the Persian Gulf their front yard. So, this is going to be difficult to sustain.
Another country I think would be interesting, and this is something that we could talk about as being ironic, is that off all of these countries in this region, Syria might prove to be the most compliant as far as a U.S. invasion of Baghdad. The fact that Hafez al-Assad, who was the former ruler of Syria, and Saddam Hussein were bitter, bitter rivals for many years. And now you have the son of Hafez al-Assad Bashir, on ruling Syria. And so he has some interest in helping the United States in that war. But very, very quietly, I might say.
PHILLIPS: And this question may be a little general, as you're talking specifics here in the region. You know, going back over here to Afghanistan, OK? And taking a look at post-Taliban Afghanistan with a post-Saddam Iraq, do you think it will be proven to be more of a problem for the United States? MACKEY: Oh, well it is definitely more of a problem simply because of your geographic location. If we look at Afghanistan ...
PHILLIPS: Right.
MACKEY: We're talking about a very mountainous country. It does not have many resources. Certainly nothing on the level of oil. And it's here in Central Asia.
And therefore all of these tribal conflicts that you have in Afghanistan can more or less work themselves out out of the strategic balance, so to speak.
But now if we go back to Iraq then you see Iraq sits -- here is the Persian Gulf and then we have the pipelines coming out of Central Asia that are carrying all of those principally gas resources and also some oil resources across Turkey.
Now if you start destabilizing this area, that then causes a great deal of problems any time you destabilize this area.
But then you add to that that Iraq has oil resources second only to those of Saudi Arabia and you put that into the equation.
And then you add the third factor is that you have Iran here, you have the Fertile Crescent here that Iraq is just at this incredible crossroads here and that is why it really makes it a very large problem for the United States if we go militarily.
PHILLIPS: Sandra Mackey, Middle East expert and analyst -- thank you so much.
And we have to mention your book, too -- "The Reckoning" -- a fabulous book. Thank you very much.
MACKEY: Thank you.
PHILLIPS: A great insight.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired December 7, 2002 - 16:25 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: If Saddam Hussein is removed from power by force or other means what does Iraq become, a democracy or a land torn by civil war? For that we turn to Middle East analyst Sandra Mackey. We're in the CNN Map Room, here, to kind you a little perspective of the region, and Iraq's neighbors and talk a little politics -- and possible war.
Thanks for being with us.
SANDRA MACKEY, MIDDLE EAST ANALYST: Thank you. Nice to be here.
PHILLIPS: Let's talk about Iraq, specifically, right now. And what do you think Saddam could expect from his neighbors if a war against Iraq takes place?
MACKEY: Well, I think this is going to be, of course, critical to American planning. And certainly something we have to think about very carefully ahead of time. Because, obviously, if we are going to send in a force of 250,000 troops to have all the men and equipment, basically, now as they are in Kuwait and Qatar and in the Persian Gulf, it is just not going to be adequate. We need territory from the surrounding countries.
The big question right now, of course, is what is Saudi Arabia going to do, which provided the staging area for American troops in the last Gulf War.
Riyadh is in a very delicate situation, because, obviously, they have a lot of internal problems. They've been developing for a number of years. But the immediate thing they're facing is the fact that there has been a large American presence in Saudi Arabia since the end of the Gulf War. And it has caused a lot of internal conflict in the country. And so that -- they are weighing those. Can they afford to jeopardize their alliance with the United States? On the other hand, can they afford to become involved in another military action on the side of the United States that's been in flames there, more militant citizens?
I think another interesting question would be, what would Iran do?
PHILLIPS: OK?
MACKEY: Iran has actually been contacted by the United States about providing some support or at least not opposing an American invasion. And the Iranians, after these two decades-plus of the Iranian revolution, are beginning to look at the United States as a useful ally against Saddam Hussein. Because I think we need to remember that Iran has been a victim of Saddam Hussein, even much worse than Kuwait was.
PHILLIPS: Of course, President Bush continues to talk about Iran being part of that axis of evil. Even when I was out in the region, Iran was showing support to the U.S., and other allies, when it came to maritime interdiction operations. They were actually lending support when it came to the smuggling that was going on in the waterways, which I thought was very interesting.
MACKEY: Yes. And the Iranians seem to be, you know, open to giving some kind of assistance to the United States. Now, the problem you have, though, is that if the United States sends its -- you know, is trapped in Iraq as a -- and becomes an occupying power, then the Iranians are going to become very, very nervous about this, because they consider the Persian Gulf their front yard. So, this is going to be difficult to sustain.
Another country I think would be interesting, and this is something that we could talk about as being ironic, is that off all of these countries in this region, Syria might prove to be the most compliant as far as a U.S. invasion of Baghdad. The fact that Hafez al-Assad, who was the former ruler of Syria, and Saddam Hussein were bitter, bitter rivals for many years. And now you have the son of Hafez al-Assad Bashir, on ruling Syria. And so he has some interest in helping the United States in that war. But very, very quietly, I might say.
PHILLIPS: And this question may be a little general, as you're talking specifics here in the region. You know, going back over here to Afghanistan, OK? And taking a look at post-Taliban Afghanistan with a post-Saddam Iraq, do you think it will be proven to be more of a problem for the United States? MACKEY: Oh, well it is definitely more of a problem simply because of your geographic location. If we look at Afghanistan ...
PHILLIPS: Right.
MACKEY: We're talking about a very mountainous country. It does not have many resources. Certainly nothing on the level of oil. And it's here in Central Asia.
And therefore all of these tribal conflicts that you have in Afghanistan can more or less work themselves out out of the strategic balance, so to speak.
But now if we go back to Iraq then you see Iraq sits -- here is the Persian Gulf and then we have the pipelines coming out of Central Asia that are carrying all of those principally gas resources and also some oil resources across Turkey.
Now if you start destabilizing this area, that then causes a great deal of problems any time you destabilize this area.
But then you add to that that Iraq has oil resources second only to those of Saudi Arabia and you put that into the equation.
And then you add the third factor is that you have Iran here, you have the Fertile Crescent here that Iraq is just at this incredible crossroads here and that is why it really makes it a very large problem for the United States if we go militarily.
PHILLIPS: Sandra Mackey, Middle East expert and analyst -- thank you so much.
And we have to mention your book, too -- "The Reckoning" -- a fabulous book. Thank you very much.
MACKEY: Thank you.
PHILLIPS: A great insight.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
