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CNN Live Saturday
Interview With Sandra Mackey
Aired December 07, 2002 - 17:26 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: If Saddam Hussein is removed from power, where exactly does that leave Iraq? Will it be a flourishing democracy or a land torn apart by civil war? For more on that, we're going to turn to our Middle East analyst Sandra Mackey. She is in the CNN map room here.
Sandra, you have written a book on this very subject, because what's interesting about Iraq is just the different composition of people in that country, most who have been warring with each other for hundreds of years.
SANDRA MACKEY, AUTHOR: Well, actually, Iraq was put together in 1921, and it was assembled as a contrived country rather than rising as a nation that you ordinarily see in countries. And it has very distinct ethnic and sectarian divisions.
The three main groups that we need to talk about are the Arab Sunnis, the Arab Shiia and the non-Arab Kurds, and not only do we have these three main groups, but we have them separated into distinct geographic areas. Now, obviously, there is some intermingling, but generally, what you have here is you have what's called the Sunni triangle that runs across this way toward the Syrian and Jordanian borders. And this is where Arab Sunnis live. This is where Baghdad is, and this is the group that keeps Saddam Hussein in power.
LIN: They are the power elite, they hold the ministry positions, most of the power in the government?
MACKEY: Correct, and also the tribal, the main tribal alliances that Saddam Hussein has are in this area.
Then in the south, we have the Iraqi Shia, which means that these are Arabic-speaking people, but they follow the dissenting sect of Islam that you find in Iran. But they are not Persians like the Iranians are. They are Arabs.
Then you have on the northern arc here the Kurdish area. And the Kurds are not Arabic-speaking. They are Muslim, but they are both Sunni and Shia. And what their great desire is is to have their own independent state.
Now, these three groups have constantly competed with each other throughout the history of Iraq, which we have to keep in mind is a history that's only, you know, 80 plus years. This is not an old, ancient country. So what this presents the United States with is, you know, an enormous political problem at the end of any military operation. The great challenge of the United States in a war in Iraq is not the military part of it. It is really what follows politically after that war is over and Saddam Hussein has been removed from power.
LIN: Let's get to that in just a minute. But let's say there is a conflict. Let's say the United States does go to war with Iraq. What role would each of these groups play during that conflict? Would they rise up against Saddam Hussein? Would they fight for Saddam Hussein? Where are their loyalties?
MACKEY: Well, this is the big question. Because I think we can say that in the Sunni triangle here, among the Sunnis, we have to at least plan for the fact that there will be a great defense of Baghdad here by the people who are very loyal to Saddam Hussein -- not because they necessarily like Saddam Hussein, but because they fear their Shia and Kurdish rivals.
What the Shia will do is very interesting. They may turn against Saddam Hussein, but on the other hand, they may decide that this American invasion is not for political reform, but rather is an imperialistic war aimed at taking Iraq's oil resources, so that is a huge question mark, because this is 60 percent of the population.
The Kurds in the north, you would assume would take a stand against Saddam Hussein, and I think the United States is planning on that. The question, though, is internal Kurdish politics, because you actually have one group of Kurds under Massoud Barzani (ph) who in the past has actually been in alliance with Saddam Hussein against their Kurdish rivals. So all of these factors are in play and it's a tossup about what's going to happen.
LIN: So in a few seconds we have left, can you draw a conclusion, if there is a war and a regime change, do any one of these groups have the capacity to lead Iraq, or what scenario would you reasonably see after a war with Saddam Hussein?
MACKEY: I think most learned observers realize that there is going to be a certain level of chaos and that the great danger for the United States is getting sucked into Iraq, trying to control the internal dynamics and without being able to exit as we would like to exit at a preplanned point.
LIN: All right.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired December 7, 2002 - 17:26 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: If Saddam Hussein is removed from power, where exactly does that leave Iraq? Will it be a flourishing democracy or a land torn apart by civil war? For more on that, we're going to turn to our Middle East analyst Sandra Mackey. She is in the CNN map room here.
Sandra, you have written a book on this very subject, because what's interesting about Iraq is just the different composition of people in that country, most who have been warring with each other for hundreds of years.
SANDRA MACKEY, AUTHOR: Well, actually, Iraq was put together in 1921, and it was assembled as a contrived country rather than rising as a nation that you ordinarily see in countries. And it has very distinct ethnic and sectarian divisions.
The three main groups that we need to talk about are the Arab Sunnis, the Arab Shiia and the non-Arab Kurds, and not only do we have these three main groups, but we have them separated into distinct geographic areas. Now, obviously, there is some intermingling, but generally, what you have here is you have what's called the Sunni triangle that runs across this way toward the Syrian and Jordanian borders. And this is where Arab Sunnis live. This is where Baghdad is, and this is the group that keeps Saddam Hussein in power.
LIN: They are the power elite, they hold the ministry positions, most of the power in the government?
MACKEY: Correct, and also the tribal, the main tribal alliances that Saddam Hussein has are in this area.
Then in the south, we have the Iraqi Shia, which means that these are Arabic-speaking people, but they follow the dissenting sect of Islam that you find in Iran. But they are not Persians like the Iranians are. They are Arabs.
Then you have on the northern arc here the Kurdish area. And the Kurds are not Arabic-speaking. They are Muslim, but they are both Sunni and Shia. And what their great desire is is to have their own independent state.
Now, these three groups have constantly competed with each other throughout the history of Iraq, which we have to keep in mind is a history that's only, you know, 80 plus years. This is not an old, ancient country. So what this presents the United States with is, you know, an enormous political problem at the end of any military operation. The great challenge of the United States in a war in Iraq is not the military part of it. It is really what follows politically after that war is over and Saddam Hussein has been removed from power.
LIN: Let's get to that in just a minute. But let's say there is a conflict. Let's say the United States does go to war with Iraq. What role would each of these groups play during that conflict? Would they rise up against Saddam Hussein? Would they fight for Saddam Hussein? Where are their loyalties?
MACKEY: Well, this is the big question. Because I think we can say that in the Sunni triangle here, among the Sunnis, we have to at least plan for the fact that there will be a great defense of Baghdad here by the people who are very loyal to Saddam Hussein -- not because they necessarily like Saddam Hussein, but because they fear their Shia and Kurdish rivals.
What the Shia will do is very interesting. They may turn against Saddam Hussein, but on the other hand, they may decide that this American invasion is not for political reform, but rather is an imperialistic war aimed at taking Iraq's oil resources, so that is a huge question mark, because this is 60 percent of the population.
The Kurds in the north, you would assume would take a stand against Saddam Hussein, and I think the United States is planning on that. The question, though, is internal Kurdish politics, because you actually have one group of Kurds under Massoud Barzani (ph) who in the past has actually been in alliance with Saddam Hussein against their Kurdish rivals. So all of these factors are in play and it's a tossup about what's going to happen.
LIN: So in a few seconds we have left, can you draw a conclusion, if there is a war and a regime change, do any one of these groups have the capacity to lead Iraq, or what scenario would you reasonably see after a war with Saddam Hussein?
MACKEY: I think most learned observers realize that there is going to be a certain level of chaos and that the great danger for the United States is getting sucked into Iraq, trying to control the internal dynamics and without being able to exit as we would like to exit at a preplanned point.
LIN: All right.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
