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U.S. Skeptical Iraq Does Not Have WMDs

Aired December 07, 2002 - 17:35   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: As it said it would, Iraq has handed over its massive weapons report. Iraqi officials swear they don't have any weapons of mass destruction, but the United States and some of its allies are not buying it -- at least not yet. Our national security correspondent, David Ensor, actually shows us why.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATION SECURITY CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): United Nations officials will pour over Iraq's weapons declaration documents when U.S., British, and other officials from governments permanently on the U.N. Security Council also expect to have access to them very quickly. All will be comparing what weapons Saddam Hussein says he has with what they believe he really has. Looking, especially in the U.S. case with a very skeptical eye.

DONALD RUMSFELD, SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: The United States knows that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction. The U.K. knows that they have weapons of mass destruction. Any country on the face of the earth with an active intelligence program knows that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction.

ENSOR: According to a British government report made public just days ago, Iraq has still failed to account for 3300 tons of precursor chemicals, 397 tons of chemical agents, including 1.7 tons of VX nerve gas and more than 30,00 special munitions for delivery of chemical and biological agents -- all missing during the 1998 U.N. inspections. British and U.S. intelligence officials believe Saddam Hussein has continued to produce a variety of chemical and biological agents with at least some of those weapons capable of being deployed in as little as 45 minutes.

U.S. intelligence officials believe Iraq has retained a delivery system of as many as 20 Al Hussein missiles with a 650-kilometer range capable of reaching Israel. And, according to a CIA report, Baghdad maintains multiple delivery systems and mobile production facilities, making its biological weapons capability more advanced than before the Gulf War.

RICHARD BUTLER, FMR. U.N. WEAPONS INSPECTOR: The reports that say that Iraq has mobilized that production capability in order to evade detection it seems to me are extremely credible reports.

ENSOR: Both the agents and the delivery system would be in direct violation of U.N. resolution 687. Iraq recently admitted that it tried to obtain aluminum cubes for use, it says, in producing conventional short-range missiles that are not forbidden and not for a nuclear weapons program. According to the report by Britain's joint intelligence committee, Saddam Hussein has also sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa. And if successful in obtaining fissile material, the Iraqis are one to two years away from producing a nuclear bomb.

Other nuclear experts say they doubt Iraq got much uranium in Africa but that if it did get enough fissile material somehow, the British estimate of up to two years may be too optimistic.

DAVID ALBRIGHT, FMR. WEAPONS INSPECTOR: I would say that's too long. I mean the U.S. assessment in a report published by the CIA is that they could do it within a year. And there are -- and if they prepared doing all the other components for a nuclear explosive, they could do it within a few weeks.

ENSOR: U.S. National Security and intelligence officials will be going over the Iraqi declaration documents with a fine tooth comb once they get access to them, officials say. Washington wants to make its own assessment of the evidence, even as it waits to hear what the U.N. inspectors think.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ENSOR: So, Carol, that may be a little bit of delay now we hear from the United Nations in how long it will be before U.S. officials get to look at these documents directly. They want to examine them themselves, they want to go through them with a fine tooth comb -- Carol.

LIN: David, what specifically is the United States looking for in this pile of 11,000 pages and two CD-Roms?

ENSOR: Well, Carol, as I mentioned, they have -- in the piece -- they believe that Iraq has VX gas, that it has a missile program that's in violation of the U.N. rules, that it has biological weapons labs driving around in trucks, a variety of things like that.

U.S. intelligence officials tell me today they have their own clear evidence that since things have been heating up with Iraq, Iraq has been moving things around, has been taking things out in refrigerator trucks and biological labs and things like that. They have their own concrete evidence suggesting to them that Iraq has a large weapons of mass destruction program. They do not believe they're going to see that all laid out in these 12,000 pages that have been delivered today. They hope so, they do not think so.

LIN: All right. So if there's not actually a declaration of these things that the United States suspects they actually have, then how do they put the clues together? Are there other signs, for example, at some of these dual use sites that they would be able to piece those things together conclusively?

ENSOR: The problem, really, for the U.S. is that the evidence the U.S. has is intelligence which in some cases if revealed would show how it was collected, would reveal the sources and methods of that intelligence collection. So it's going to be a very difficult game for the U.S. to play to reveal enough of what it knows without compromising its sources and methods, which it needs not only for Iraq but for other purposes around the world.

So we're going to have to watch this game as it goes forward. I think you will see, however, as time goes on, the U.S. will make public some, a little bit at least, of the evidence it has.

LIN: But, David, what happens if the Bush administration does its own analysis and comes up with its own conclusions, and the United Nations does the same and they actually conflict?

ENSOR: Well, as I say, the U.S. has access to its own intelligence gathering techniques. The U.N. may not have access to all of that information. So you may get different versions. You may get different versions from other countries, for that matter. It is reasonable to expect that all the permanent members, the permanent five members of the U.N. Security Council will have access to this information, and they may have different views as to how to interpret it.

And you're right, that will raise real questions.

LIN: So then who becomes the arbiter of whose information is more correct?

ENSOR: Well, clearly the U.S. will seek to convince the United Nations and Hans Blix, the chief inspector, that its version is correct and may reveal more intelligence to those individuals in order to try to convince them.

But in the end, of course, President Bush has said that the U.S. does reserve the right to take action itself to protect itself if it believes that becomes necessary.

LIN: All right, thank you very much, David Ensor, for that fascinating report.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired December 7, 2002 - 17:35   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: As it said it would, Iraq has handed over its massive weapons report. Iraqi officials swear they don't have any weapons of mass destruction, but the United States and some of its allies are not buying it -- at least not yet. Our national security correspondent, David Ensor, actually shows us why.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DAVID ENSOR, CNN NATION SECURITY CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): United Nations officials will pour over Iraq's weapons declaration documents when U.S., British, and other officials from governments permanently on the U.N. Security Council also expect to have access to them very quickly. All will be comparing what weapons Saddam Hussein says he has with what they believe he really has. Looking, especially in the U.S. case with a very skeptical eye.

DONALD RUMSFELD, SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: The United States knows that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction. The U.K. knows that they have weapons of mass destruction. Any country on the face of the earth with an active intelligence program knows that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction.

ENSOR: According to a British government report made public just days ago, Iraq has still failed to account for 3300 tons of precursor chemicals, 397 tons of chemical agents, including 1.7 tons of VX nerve gas and more than 30,00 special munitions for delivery of chemical and biological agents -- all missing during the 1998 U.N. inspections. British and U.S. intelligence officials believe Saddam Hussein has continued to produce a variety of chemical and biological agents with at least some of those weapons capable of being deployed in as little as 45 minutes.

U.S. intelligence officials believe Iraq has retained a delivery system of as many as 20 Al Hussein missiles with a 650-kilometer range capable of reaching Israel. And, according to a CIA report, Baghdad maintains multiple delivery systems and mobile production facilities, making its biological weapons capability more advanced than before the Gulf War.

RICHARD BUTLER, FMR. U.N. WEAPONS INSPECTOR: The reports that say that Iraq has mobilized that production capability in order to evade detection it seems to me are extremely credible reports.

ENSOR: Both the agents and the delivery system would be in direct violation of U.N. resolution 687. Iraq recently admitted that it tried to obtain aluminum cubes for use, it says, in producing conventional short-range missiles that are not forbidden and not for a nuclear weapons program. According to the report by Britain's joint intelligence committee, Saddam Hussein has also sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa. And if successful in obtaining fissile material, the Iraqis are one to two years away from producing a nuclear bomb.

Other nuclear experts say they doubt Iraq got much uranium in Africa but that if it did get enough fissile material somehow, the British estimate of up to two years may be too optimistic.

DAVID ALBRIGHT, FMR. WEAPONS INSPECTOR: I would say that's too long. I mean the U.S. assessment in a report published by the CIA is that they could do it within a year. And there are -- and if they prepared doing all the other components for a nuclear explosive, they could do it within a few weeks.

ENSOR: U.S. National Security and intelligence officials will be going over the Iraqi declaration documents with a fine tooth comb once they get access to them, officials say. Washington wants to make its own assessment of the evidence, even as it waits to hear what the U.N. inspectors think.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ENSOR: So, Carol, that may be a little bit of delay now we hear from the United Nations in how long it will be before U.S. officials get to look at these documents directly. They want to examine them themselves, they want to go through them with a fine tooth comb -- Carol.

LIN: David, what specifically is the United States looking for in this pile of 11,000 pages and two CD-Roms?

ENSOR: Well, Carol, as I mentioned, they have -- in the piece -- they believe that Iraq has VX gas, that it has a missile program that's in violation of the U.N. rules, that it has biological weapons labs driving around in trucks, a variety of things like that.

U.S. intelligence officials tell me today they have their own clear evidence that since things have been heating up with Iraq, Iraq has been moving things around, has been taking things out in refrigerator trucks and biological labs and things like that. They have their own concrete evidence suggesting to them that Iraq has a large weapons of mass destruction program. They do not believe they're going to see that all laid out in these 12,000 pages that have been delivered today. They hope so, they do not think so.

LIN: All right. So if there's not actually a declaration of these things that the United States suspects they actually have, then how do they put the clues together? Are there other signs, for example, at some of these dual use sites that they would be able to piece those things together conclusively?

ENSOR: The problem, really, for the U.S. is that the evidence the U.S. has is intelligence which in some cases if revealed would show how it was collected, would reveal the sources and methods of that intelligence collection. So it's going to be a very difficult game for the U.S. to play to reveal enough of what it knows without compromising its sources and methods, which it needs not only for Iraq but for other purposes around the world.

So we're going to have to watch this game as it goes forward. I think you will see, however, as time goes on, the U.S. will make public some, a little bit at least, of the evidence it has.

LIN: But, David, what happens if the Bush administration does its own analysis and comes up with its own conclusions, and the United Nations does the same and they actually conflict?

ENSOR: Well, as I say, the U.S. has access to its own intelligence gathering techniques. The U.N. may not have access to all of that information. So you may get different versions. You may get different versions from other countries, for that matter. It is reasonable to expect that all the permanent members, the permanent five members of the U.N. Security Council will have access to this information, and they may have different views as to how to interpret it.

And you're right, that will raise real questions.

LIN: So then who becomes the arbiter of whose information is more correct?

ENSOR: Well, clearly the U.S. will seek to convince the United Nations and Hans Blix, the chief inspector, that its version is correct and may reveal more intelligence to those individuals in order to try to convince them.

But in the end, of course, President Bush has said that the U.S. does reserve the right to take action itself to protect itself if it believes that becomes necessary.

LIN: All right, thank you very much, David Ensor, for that fascinating report.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com