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CNN Live Saturday

Interview With Thomas Carothers

Aired February 15, 2003 - 18:41   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Is it possible to overcome the way people in the region think about the United States, and how would the U.S. rebuild a post-war Iraq? Let's ask Thomas Carothers. He's with the Carnegie Institute. He's actually studied the potential for democracy in the Middle East and other global hot spots. Thomas, it's good to see you. Thanks for being here.
THOMAS CAROTHERS, CARNEGIE INSTITUTE: Good evening. Thanks.

LIN: Is it utterly ridiculous to think about democracy, as we, as Americans, know it in Iraq? It has never happened. It is a tribal society.

CAROTHERS: Well, no country is prevented from eventually becoming a democracy, but we have to admit it's going to be very difficult in Iraq. Here is a country with no history of democracy, and instead a political history marked by conflict, by violence and repression. So we can't expect that overnight, Iraq is going to go from a Stalin-like government to Thomas Jefferson. Instead, it's clearly going to take years and a huge investment by the United States of all kinds of resources.

LIN: But why should there be a democracy in Iraq? I mean, why should it model a form of government that the United States is familiar with?

CAROTHERS: Well, I think we view in the United States generally that democracy is the best form of government for any kind of society. It is overly ambitious to think that Iraq can suddenly overnight become a democracy, but I think it's reasonable to say that that's our long-term aspiration for Iraq, as it is for many countries. But we have to be realistic. If there is an intervention, we have to expect that at least for five to 10 years after that, Iraq could well be politically unstable in some ways, raucous, chaotic and even potentially violent.

LIN: Five to 10 years, that's a long time, and you also say that there will be a scramble to actually keep order and keep the country from falling apart, and at the some time, you also hold out hope that there could be something like a constitutional convention, which, of course, you know, brings up what we are familiar with here in the United States with the founding fathers and our Constitution, which was today.

CAROTHERS: That's right. I think what we'll initially see if there is an intervention is after that, an American military occupation, which there is actually a governor, an American military governor, who runs Iraq, a little bit like after World War II, with Germany and Japan, although cases aren't really analogous. And then after that, a transition to Iraqi civilian rule in the longer term, and at that point might come writing a new constitution, building electoral processes and things like that. But again, this is all very tentative and very hard to know what the scenario will really be.

LIN: But the rebuilding of Germany and Japan after World War II had the help of the international community. Is that something realistic that the United States can expect, given the protests we're seeing around the world and the discord at the United Nations?

CAROTHERS: Well, unfortunately, the way the Bush administration is going about it, we're burning some bridges before even we're there to cross them, and I think a number of nations are not going to want to participate with the United States and not help provide funding and resources for a reconstruction of Iraq. That's unfortunate, and that's a consequence of the policy, the way it's being pursued right now.

LIN: So if you were actually to paint a portrait of democracy in Iraq, to you, what would be the ideal and yet the most realistic scenario we could expect?

CAROTHERS: Basically, the most realistic scenario and what would be ideal is some kind of power sharing between the Shiites and the Sunnis in Iraq, as well as the Kurds, the three of them having some say in the government, at least a relatively peaceful, not too repressive government, and the start of some consultative and participatory processes for citizens. Like I say, we can't expect Jeffersonian democracy overnight, hope the country keeps together between the different groups and gradually build up some traditions of participation and political trust.

LIN: Well, already I can see that you see a long-standing role for the United States there in that region. Thank you very much, Thomas Carothers, with the Carnegie Institute.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired February 15, 2003 - 18:41   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Is it possible to overcome the way people in the region think about the United States, and how would the U.S. rebuild a post-war Iraq? Let's ask Thomas Carothers. He's with the Carnegie Institute. He's actually studied the potential for democracy in the Middle East and other global hot spots. Thomas, it's good to see you. Thanks for being here.
THOMAS CAROTHERS, CARNEGIE INSTITUTE: Good evening. Thanks.

LIN: Is it utterly ridiculous to think about democracy, as we, as Americans, know it in Iraq? It has never happened. It is a tribal society.

CAROTHERS: Well, no country is prevented from eventually becoming a democracy, but we have to admit it's going to be very difficult in Iraq. Here is a country with no history of democracy, and instead a political history marked by conflict, by violence and repression. So we can't expect that overnight, Iraq is going to go from a Stalin-like government to Thomas Jefferson. Instead, it's clearly going to take years and a huge investment by the United States of all kinds of resources.

LIN: But why should there be a democracy in Iraq? I mean, why should it model a form of government that the United States is familiar with?

CAROTHERS: Well, I think we view in the United States generally that democracy is the best form of government for any kind of society. It is overly ambitious to think that Iraq can suddenly overnight become a democracy, but I think it's reasonable to say that that's our long-term aspiration for Iraq, as it is for many countries. But we have to be realistic. If there is an intervention, we have to expect that at least for five to 10 years after that, Iraq could well be politically unstable in some ways, raucous, chaotic and even potentially violent.

LIN: Five to 10 years, that's a long time, and you also say that there will be a scramble to actually keep order and keep the country from falling apart, and at the some time, you also hold out hope that there could be something like a constitutional convention, which, of course, you know, brings up what we are familiar with here in the United States with the founding fathers and our Constitution, which was today.

CAROTHERS: That's right. I think what we'll initially see if there is an intervention is after that, an American military occupation, which there is actually a governor, an American military governor, who runs Iraq, a little bit like after World War II, with Germany and Japan, although cases aren't really analogous. And then after that, a transition to Iraqi civilian rule in the longer term, and at that point might come writing a new constitution, building electoral processes and things like that. But again, this is all very tentative and very hard to know what the scenario will really be.

LIN: But the rebuilding of Germany and Japan after World War II had the help of the international community. Is that something realistic that the United States can expect, given the protests we're seeing around the world and the discord at the United Nations?

CAROTHERS: Well, unfortunately, the way the Bush administration is going about it, we're burning some bridges before even we're there to cross them, and I think a number of nations are not going to want to participate with the United States and not help provide funding and resources for a reconstruction of Iraq. That's unfortunate, and that's a consequence of the policy, the way it's being pursued right now.

LIN: So if you were actually to paint a portrait of democracy in Iraq, to you, what would be the ideal and yet the most realistic scenario we could expect?

CAROTHERS: Basically, the most realistic scenario and what would be ideal is some kind of power sharing between the Shiites and the Sunnis in Iraq, as well as the Kurds, the three of them having some say in the government, at least a relatively peaceful, not too repressive government, and the start of some consultative and participatory processes for citizens. Like I say, we can't expect Jeffersonian democracy overnight, hope the country keeps together between the different groups and gradually build up some traditions of participation and political trust.

LIN: Well, already I can see that you see a long-standing role for the United States there in that region. Thank you very much, Thomas Carothers, with the Carnegie Institute.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com