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CNN Live Saturday
Interview With Andrew Hess
Aired March 08, 2003 - 18:40 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Much is being made about the economic aspects of a possible war with Iraq. How much it will cost and who will foot the bill? But there are also concerns some members of the Security Council, who oppose war, may have financial motives -- or not, wanting the U.S. to invade Iraq. Andrew Hess is a professor of diplomacy at Tufts University and he is joining us from Foxborough, Massachusetts.
Good to see you, Dr. Hess.
ANDREW HESS, PROF., TUFTS UNIVERSITY: Oh, good to be on CNN.
WHITFIELD: All right, well, let's begin with France. Is it morality or is it money that is putting them in opposition of war?
HESS: Well, I think that the position of France has a lot to do with what may happen in the future, in this region of the world, in terms of its ability to profit from the oil business there. So, yes, money.
WHITFIELD: OK. And that is because they have some financial incentives for the future, in particular, with Iraq?
HESS: Well, there is a very big story going on in the Middle East now, concerning oil. And that is that if the United States goes into Iraq and takes control of that country it puts itself in the middle of the oil bearing region that runs from the Caspian Sea to the Persian Gulf. That's where 70 percent of the world's proven oil reserves are.
And if it gets there it has a good position to exploit those reserves, one way or the other. So, that means that other great power would like to not be moved out to the side on getting at the oil in the next couple of decades.
WHITFIELD: And is it true that Iraq has such great debt with the French already and so France has its concerns about whether, indeed, they'd eventually get their payback.
HESS: Yes, that is part of it. But the bigger story is definitely the oil in the ground and how to get it out and who is going to profit from that. What the analyst of the oil situation have been telling us is that the demand for oil is going to increase dramatically in the next couple of decades when China and India begin to require more energy. And the only way that oil can be supplied is from exporting the reserves and resources of countries like Iraq, which have great quantities of oil under the ground, almost as much as Saudi Arabia.
So, the French want to be involved in that. And if they become part of the action there, most assuredly they're going to make an awful lot of money.
WHITFIELD: All right, so France has rights to develop oil fields, now what's the story on Germany?
HESS: Well, Germany, I think is mostly interested in selling vehicles and other articles, construction material and getting involved in the business of reconstructing what may take place after Saddam Hussein is gone from Iraq if that happens.
Germany hasn't supplied much in the way of arms or ammunition. It is not in the food business, either. So, it probably is going to concern itself with the engineering side of things and just getting into the market that is going to be created by oil and all of the other activities that go along with that in the next couple of decades in this region.
WHITFIELD: And once, and if, the sanctions are lifted, let's talk about Russia and its contracts to perhaps develop those oil fields. How much of an interest does Russia seem to have in all of this?
HESS: Well, Russia has been involved in discussions with Iraq, that probably will amount to something like $44 billion worth of work, if the sanctions are lifted and if the Ba'ath government continues to be in power after whatever fighting is done, is over. And so they are a major player. And the reason that they got in that position is that Saddam Hussein saw all of this coming and decided that one of the ways that he might split the opposition against him was to get France and Russia involved in some kind of oil operation in the future, maybe.
WHITFIELD: So, overall, it seems to me that, Dr. Hess, you are saying it is money over morality that is driving at least Germany, France and Russia in all of this. Thanks very much for joining us, of Tufts University, from Foxborough, Massachusetts.
Thanks very much.
HESS: Thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired March 8, 2003 - 18:40 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Much is being made about the economic aspects of a possible war with Iraq. How much it will cost and who will foot the bill? But there are also concerns some members of the Security Council, who oppose war, may have financial motives -- or not, wanting the U.S. to invade Iraq. Andrew Hess is a professor of diplomacy at Tufts University and he is joining us from Foxborough, Massachusetts.
Good to see you, Dr. Hess.
ANDREW HESS, PROF., TUFTS UNIVERSITY: Oh, good to be on CNN.
WHITFIELD: All right, well, let's begin with France. Is it morality or is it money that is putting them in opposition of war?
HESS: Well, I think that the position of France has a lot to do with what may happen in the future, in this region of the world, in terms of its ability to profit from the oil business there. So, yes, money.
WHITFIELD: OK. And that is because they have some financial incentives for the future, in particular, with Iraq?
HESS: Well, there is a very big story going on in the Middle East now, concerning oil. And that is that if the United States goes into Iraq and takes control of that country it puts itself in the middle of the oil bearing region that runs from the Caspian Sea to the Persian Gulf. That's where 70 percent of the world's proven oil reserves are.
And if it gets there it has a good position to exploit those reserves, one way or the other. So, that means that other great power would like to not be moved out to the side on getting at the oil in the next couple of decades.
WHITFIELD: And is it true that Iraq has such great debt with the French already and so France has its concerns about whether, indeed, they'd eventually get their payback.
HESS: Yes, that is part of it. But the bigger story is definitely the oil in the ground and how to get it out and who is going to profit from that. What the analyst of the oil situation have been telling us is that the demand for oil is going to increase dramatically in the next couple of decades when China and India begin to require more energy. And the only way that oil can be supplied is from exporting the reserves and resources of countries like Iraq, which have great quantities of oil under the ground, almost as much as Saudi Arabia.
So, the French want to be involved in that. And if they become part of the action there, most assuredly they're going to make an awful lot of money.
WHITFIELD: All right, so France has rights to develop oil fields, now what's the story on Germany?
HESS: Well, Germany, I think is mostly interested in selling vehicles and other articles, construction material and getting involved in the business of reconstructing what may take place after Saddam Hussein is gone from Iraq if that happens.
Germany hasn't supplied much in the way of arms or ammunition. It is not in the food business, either. So, it probably is going to concern itself with the engineering side of things and just getting into the market that is going to be created by oil and all of the other activities that go along with that in the next couple of decades in this region.
WHITFIELD: And once, and if, the sanctions are lifted, let's talk about Russia and its contracts to perhaps develop those oil fields. How much of an interest does Russia seem to have in all of this?
HESS: Well, Russia has been involved in discussions with Iraq, that probably will amount to something like $44 billion worth of work, if the sanctions are lifted and if the Ba'ath government continues to be in power after whatever fighting is done, is over. And so they are a major player. And the reason that they got in that position is that Saddam Hussein saw all of this coming and decided that one of the ways that he might split the opposition against him was to get France and Russia involved in some kind of oil operation in the future, maybe.
WHITFIELD: So, overall, it seems to me that, Dr. Hess, you are saying it is money over morality that is driving at least Germany, France and Russia in all of this. Thanks very much for joining us, of Tufts University, from Foxborough, Massachusetts.
Thanks very much.
HESS: Thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
