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CNN Live Saturday

Interview With Thomas Pickering

Aired March 15, 2003 - 17:20   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: If there is a war, the costs are expected to be in the billions. Some critics worry that the White House is underestimating the costs. Former Undersecretary of State Thomas Pickering is among those who say the administration needs to re-examine the costs, and he joins us from Washington. Well, good to see you.
THOMAS PICKERING, FORMER UNDERSECRETARY OF STATE: Good to see you. And nice to be with you.

WHITFIELD: There have been so many estimates of exactly how much this war could cost, and even post-war, anywhere from $15 billion to $48 billion. What is your estimation of how much money this war could potentially cost?

PICKERING: Well, I have only seen the estimates -- we have worked in the Council of Foreign Relations on the post-conflict costs. And we think at a minimum, $20 billion a year probably is a good figure to start with. I've seen the costs of the war, as you know, go up to $200 billion and beyond.

There are a lot of imponderables and a lot of unknowns, and I would think that you probably want to look at a bracket of those costs rather than fix on one.

WHITFIELD: And what would those -- those estimations are based on what? How do you come up with a figure even at $20 billion?

PICKERING: Actually, the $20 billion figure comes out of a report we just completed, and that report took the cost of 75,000 American servicemen in Iraq at about $17 billion. And then a rough cost was about...

WHITFIELD: So that's 75,000 servicemen. If we're talking 260,000 servicemen there now, then you're saying at least double that?

PICKERING: No, this is an annual cost for the...

WHITFIELD: Post-war?

PICKERING: Yes, for the post-conflict period. Yes.

WHITFIELD: OK.

PICKERING: And I don't know if anybody thinks there is going to be the same number involved over a continuing period of time. General Shinseki, chief of staff of the Army, thought maybe 200,000 people would be necessary for the post-conflict. So if you took the cost for 75,000 and doubled it and then added some more, you probably could get the cost for that in the neighborhood of $50 billion, if my math is still right. And then the additional costs that we had in there was $3 billion for humanitarian assistance, which probably is a little low. We all thought that that was an early estimate, but probably a little low.

WHITFIELD: And for those estimated thousands of U.S. troops then, who would have to remain there post conflict, you see their duties as what in terms of how do you delve out the responsibilities of reconstruction versus humanitarian aid?

PICKERING: It's a very good question. I think the primarily duties initially are to provide security. Clearly, security to the Iraqi people. There are dangers clearly of difficulties between groups in Iraq that might erupt into violence. And those people need to be protected, and then providing humanitarian service, and then begin the whole process of rebuilding.

But we also believe that the international community should share some of that burden both in the costs and personnel, and that the Iraqis themselves should play a role in this, including early in the process, carrying out administration, the standard police and government functions. Iraqis should do that after some vetting for people who are involved in crimes and criminal activity and the senior leaders of the Ba'ath Party under Saddam Hussein.

WHITFIELD: Some leading congressional members, including Tom Daschle, Senator Daschle have said the White House and the Pentagon need to come clean with the figures, that there should be no additional tax cuts or any additional spending until some hard-and- fast numbers are presented. Is that a fair demand to be making?

PICKERING: Yes, the report for the Council on Foreign Relations thought it was time for the president to come forward with the figures, particularly in an effort to begin to condition the American people that if there is a conflict, we should assume very serious responsibilities for the rebuilding, the reconstruction of Iraq after the conflict, and that you really couldn't talk about winning anything in this part of the world if the reconstruction process and the rebuilding of Iraq was not carried out successfully.

And American leadership certainly seems to be required, particularly at the beginning, but as I said, with international participation and with Iraqis involved.

WHITFIELD: All right, Thomas Pickering, thank you very much.

PICKERING: Thank you very much.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired March 15, 2003 - 17:20   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: If there is a war, the costs are expected to be in the billions. Some critics worry that the White House is underestimating the costs. Former Undersecretary of State Thomas Pickering is among those who say the administration needs to re-examine the costs, and he joins us from Washington. Well, good to see you.
THOMAS PICKERING, FORMER UNDERSECRETARY OF STATE: Good to see you. And nice to be with you.

WHITFIELD: There have been so many estimates of exactly how much this war could cost, and even post-war, anywhere from $15 billion to $48 billion. What is your estimation of how much money this war could potentially cost?

PICKERING: Well, I have only seen the estimates -- we have worked in the Council of Foreign Relations on the post-conflict costs. And we think at a minimum, $20 billion a year probably is a good figure to start with. I've seen the costs of the war, as you know, go up to $200 billion and beyond.

There are a lot of imponderables and a lot of unknowns, and I would think that you probably want to look at a bracket of those costs rather than fix on one.

WHITFIELD: And what would those -- those estimations are based on what? How do you come up with a figure even at $20 billion?

PICKERING: Actually, the $20 billion figure comes out of a report we just completed, and that report took the cost of 75,000 American servicemen in Iraq at about $17 billion. And then a rough cost was about...

WHITFIELD: So that's 75,000 servicemen. If we're talking 260,000 servicemen there now, then you're saying at least double that?

PICKERING: No, this is an annual cost for the...

WHITFIELD: Post-war?

PICKERING: Yes, for the post-conflict period. Yes.

WHITFIELD: OK.

PICKERING: And I don't know if anybody thinks there is going to be the same number involved over a continuing period of time. General Shinseki, chief of staff of the Army, thought maybe 200,000 people would be necessary for the post-conflict. So if you took the cost for 75,000 and doubled it and then added some more, you probably could get the cost for that in the neighborhood of $50 billion, if my math is still right. And then the additional costs that we had in there was $3 billion for humanitarian assistance, which probably is a little low. We all thought that that was an early estimate, but probably a little low.

WHITFIELD: And for those estimated thousands of U.S. troops then, who would have to remain there post conflict, you see their duties as what in terms of how do you delve out the responsibilities of reconstruction versus humanitarian aid?

PICKERING: It's a very good question. I think the primarily duties initially are to provide security. Clearly, security to the Iraqi people. There are dangers clearly of difficulties between groups in Iraq that might erupt into violence. And those people need to be protected, and then providing humanitarian service, and then begin the whole process of rebuilding.

But we also believe that the international community should share some of that burden both in the costs and personnel, and that the Iraqis themselves should play a role in this, including early in the process, carrying out administration, the standard police and government functions. Iraqis should do that after some vetting for people who are involved in crimes and criminal activity and the senior leaders of the Ba'ath Party under Saddam Hussein.

WHITFIELD: Some leading congressional members, including Tom Daschle, Senator Daschle have said the White House and the Pentagon need to come clean with the figures, that there should be no additional tax cuts or any additional spending until some hard-and- fast numbers are presented. Is that a fair demand to be making?

PICKERING: Yes, the report for the Council on Foreign Relations thought it was time for the president to come forward with the figures, particularly in an effort to begin to condition the American people that if there is a conflict, we should assume very serious responsibilities for the rebuilding, the reconstruction of Iraq after the conflict, and that you really couldn't talk about winning anything in this part of the world if the reconstruction process and the rebuilding of Iraq was not carried out successfully.

And American leadership certainly seems to be required, particularly at the beginning, but as I said, with international participation and with Iraqis involved.

WHITFIELD: All right, Thomas Pickering, thank you very much.

PICKERING: Thank you very much.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com