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CNN Live Saturday

Interview With Jon Alterman

Aired April 26, 2003 - 16:16   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: How does the war in Iraq affect the broader situation in the Middle East? For a look at what the future might hold for the Middle East peace process, we're joined by Jon Alterman. He is in Washington. He is the director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Jon, thanks for being with us again.
JON ALTERMAN, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: My pleasure, Anderson.

COOPER: How badly has the war in Iraq, or has it badly affected it at all, the situation in Israel?

ALTERMAN: I'm not sure it's really affected the situation in Israel. There weren't huge protests against the war in the Palestinian community. Violence didn't end. The Israelis didn't use the war in Iraq as an excuse to come in and hit the Palestinians harder. All these scenarios people thought might happen didn't really happen, and I think we're really in very much the same situation that we were in before the war.

COOPER: Then, let's argue the opposite. I mean, has the war in Iraq and the U.S. involvement in Iraq, has it quickened, perhaps, activity on the part of the Palestinian Authority, on the part of Israelis?

ALTERMAN: I'm not sure it's really made them change their basic assessment, on the Palestinian side that the Israelis aren't serious about peace, and on the Israeli side that the Palestinians aren't serious about peace. That's really what's missing. Even if the U.S. introduces a road map, it can't be a substitute for each side both making the assessment it's time to move forward and making the assessment they have a partner to do so.

COOPER: What is the next step? Abu Mazen seems to be heading toward being in place. What happens now?

ALTERMAN: Well, presumably, the U.S. will introduce the road map. There aren't many surprises in the road map. It was published in the Israeli press months ago. Secretary of State Colin Powell will travel to the region, he'll try to build up support. There will try to be an appearance that the U.S. is really trying to move this and getting engaged, and we'll see if that can actually lead to actual engagement, actual movement on both sides.

COOPER: Do Palestinians really accept the changes that have gone on in the Palestinian Authority? I mean, is there -- how do they view Abu Mazen, as opposed to Yasser Arafat?

ALTERMAN: Abu Mazen's whole career was being an understudy to Yasser Arafat, an understudy not so much as somebody who would take the role, but somebody who was there and was ready and was doing what needed to be done. He doesn't really have a public profile, he doesn't have public support. I think one of the reasons that Arafat chose him was he thought he could trust him and thought that he wasn't a person who could push Arafat from power.

The problem Abu Mazen has now is how he can build on the American support and the Israeli support without appearing to be a puppet of them and how to get them, the Americans and the Israelis, to reward him and not feel that if they give rewards to the Palestinians, if they loosen up, that somehow they're rewarding terrorism.

COOPER: What about on the Israeli side, Ariel Sharon, what does he have to do in order to meet this road map?

ALTERMAN: Ariel Sharon doesn't have to do much initially to meet the road map. What the road map says is that as violence stops or as violence winds down, Israel stops settlement activity in the West Bank and Gaza. That's going to be hard for him to sell domestically, and the Israeli claim has always been that what the Palestinians do is they give up intangible, temporary things and they take real things like land. And he's going to have a very hard time selling that to his own coalition in the Knesset in Israel.

COOPER: All right, Jon Alterman, I appreciate you joining us from Washington. Thanks very much.

ALTERMAN: Thank you, Anderson.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired April 26, 2003 - 16:16   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: How does the war in Iraq affect the broader situation in the Middle East? For a look at what the future might hold for the Middle East peace process, we're joined by Jon Alterman. He is in Washington. He is the director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Jon, thanks for being with us again.
JON ALTERMAN, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: My pleasure, Anderson.

COOPER: How badly has the war in Iraq, or has it badly affected it at all, the situation in Israel?

ALTERMAN: I'm not sure it's really affected the situation in Israel. There weren't huge protests against the war in the Palestinian community. Violence didn't end. The Israelis didn't use the war in Iraq as an excuse to come in and hit the Palestinians harder. All these scenarios people thought might happen didn't really happen, and I think we're really in very much the same situation that we were in before the war.

COOPER: Then, let's argue the opposite. I mean, has the war in Iraq and the U.S. involvement in Iraq, has it quickened, perhaps, activity on the part of the Palestinian Authority, on the part of Israelis?

ALTERMAN: I'm not sure it's really made them change their basic assessment, on the Palestinian side that the Israelis aren't serious about peace, and on the Israeli side that the Palestinians aren't serious about peace. That's really what's missing. Even if the U.S. introduces a road map, it can't be a substitute for each side both making the assessment it's time to move forward and making the assessment they have a partner to do so.

COOPER: What is the next step? Abu Mazen seems to be heading toward being in place. What happens now?

ALTERMAN: Well, presumably, the U.S. will introduce the road map. There aren't many surprises in the road map. It was published in the Israeli press months ago. Secretary of State Colin Powell will travel to the region, he'll try to build up support. There will try to be an appearance that the U.S. is really trying to move this and getting engaged, and we'll see if that can actually lead to actual engagement, actual movement on both sides.

COOPER: Do Palestinians really accept the changes that have gone on in the Palestinian Authority? I mean, is there -- how do they view Abu Mazen, as opposed to Yasser Arafat?

ALTERMAN: Abu Mazen's whole career was being an understudy to Yasser Arafat, an understudy not so much as somebody who would take the role, but somebody who was there and was ready and was doing what needed to be done. He doesn't really have a public profile, he doesn't have public support. I think one of the reasons that Arafat chose him was he thought he could trust him and thought that he wasn't a person who could push Arafat from power.

The problem Abu Mazen has now is how he can build on the American support and the Israeli support without appearing to be a puppet of them and how to get them, the Americans and the Israelis, to reward him and not feel that if they give rewards to the Palestinians, if they loosen up, that somehow they're rewarding terrorism.

COOPER: What about on the Israeli side, Ariel Sharon, what does he have to do in order to meet this road map?

ALTERMAN: Ariel Sharon doesn't have to do much initially to meet the road map. What the road map says is that as violence stops or as violence winds down, Israel stops settlement activity in the West Bank and Gaza. That's going to be hard for him to sell domestically, and the Israeli claim has always been that what the Palestinians do is they give up intangible, temporary things and they take real things like land. And he's going to have a very hard time selling that to his own coalition in the Knesset in Israel.

COOPER: All right, Jon Alterman, I appreciate you joining us from Washington. Thanks very much.

ALTERMAN: Thank you, Anderson.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com