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CNN Live Saturday

Interview With Henry Sokolski

Aired April 26, 2003 - 12:27   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN ANCHOR: China hosted the three-way talks in Beijing. It is arguably North Korea's closest ally. How does it fit into the nuclear discussion from the U.S. point of view? Well, let's talk to Henry Sokolski. He is the executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center.
Henry, U.S. had said for some time now, the intelligence community, that they believed North Korea had enough nuclear material for one or two bombs. First of all, they say they're not surprised. Do you think this is a bluff, or is North Korea positioning for future negotiations?

HENRY SOKOLSKI, NONPROLIFERATION POLICY EDUCATION CENTER: Not a bluff. And CIA said in December of 2001 that they had produced at least one bomb. Japanese intelligence, Korean intelligence, talks in terms of one to six. So that they have nuclear weapons is highly, highly likely.

Also, the North Koreans, we just learned last night, told our State Department emissaries in New York in March that they had begun reprocessing. So I don't think this is a bluff. If anything, we are at a tipping point in our policy.

KOPPEL: This is going to come across as an incredibly obvious question, but I got to ask you, why is North Korea a threat to the United States?

SOKOLSKI: North Korea presents a threat to the United States because the U.S. has a keen interest in keeping East Asia from going any more nuclear than it already has. South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, all have, at various times, expressed some interest in acquiring nuclear weapons. Two of those countries even had programs. In the case of Taiwan, them going nuclear might start a war with China.

In the case of South Korea, a standoff between two nuclear halves of that country is not a good thing.

Beyond that, North Korea has just violated the nuclear nonproliferation treaty. This is the first and most egregious violation. If indeed we do nothing to stigmatize that bad action, there are many folks watching in the Middle East that think it pays, or there won't be penalties for going to nuclear weapons themselves.

So we have a lot at stake if we want peace in the world.

KOPPEL: Well, there are also many folks out there, and I believe you are among them, who believe that the regime, the Kim Jong Il and his cohorts, have made up their mind that no matter what, they are going to pursue a nuclear program and that they have no intention of either freezing or, for that matter, dismantling it.

When you have that kind of a quandary, what kind of policy options do you have?

SOKOLSKI: Well, we had another problem like this that was much more fearsome back in the late '40s. It was called the Soviet Union, when they exploded their device.

I'm afraid that we're going to have to start turning back to some dimensions of the policies that we used to have prior to 1990. You might call this a smaller kind of cold war.

I think we've got to be clear about what we want, and we have to be firm in cutting off currency, particularly hard currency, that goes to the North Korean military through drug sales in Japan, counterfeiting. Our building reactors up there may have to stop.

Unless they have a change of heart and want to open up, and demonstrate to the world that they're out of the bomb-making business, which would probably require a change in regime for them to have that kind of change in heart.

KOPPEL: Well, in order to do that, we know that they're going to have to have China on board. Henry Sokolski, I thank you so much. He is the executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired April 26, 2003 - 12:27   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN ANCHOR: China hosted the three-way talks in Beijing. It is arguably North Korea's closest ally. How does it fit into the nuclear discussion from the U.S. point of view? Well, let's talk to Henry Sokolski. He is the executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center.
Henry, U.S. had said for some time now, the intelligence community, that they believed North Korea had enough nuclear material for one or two bombs. First of all, they say they're not surprised. Do you think this is a bluff, or is North Korea positioning for future negotiations?

HENRY SOKOLSKI, NONPROLIFERATION POLICY EDUCATION CENTER: Not a bluff. And CIA said in December of 2001 that they had produced at least one bomb. Japanese intelligence, Korean intelligence, talks in terms of one to six. So that they have nuclear weapons is highly, highly likely.

Also, the North Koreans, we just learned last night, told our State Department emissaries in New York in March that they had begun reprocessing. So I don't think this is a bluff. If anything, we are at a tipping point in our policy.

KOPPEL: This is going to come across as an incredibly obvious question, but I got to ask you, why is North Korea a threat to the United States?

SOKOLSKI: North Korea presents a threat to the United States because the U.S. has a keen interest in keeping East Asia from going any more nuclear than it already has. South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, all have, at various times, expressed some interest in acquiring nuclear weapons. Two of those countries even had programs. In the case of Taiwan, them going nuclear might start a war with China.

In the case of South Korea, a standoff between two nuclear halves of that country is not a good thing.

Beyond that, North Korea has just violated the nuclear nonproliferation treaty. This is the first and most egregious violation. If indeed we do nothing to stigmatize that bad action, there are many folks watching in the Middle East that think it pays, or there won't be penalties for going to nuclear weapons themselves.

So we have a lot at stake if we want peace in the world.

KOPPEL: Well, there are also many folks out there, and I believe you are among them, who believe that the regime, the Kim Jong Il and his cohorts, have made up their mind that no matter what, they are going to pursue a nuclear program and that they have no intention of either freezing or, for that matter, dismantling it.

When you have that kind of a quandary, what kind of policy options do you have?

SOKOLSKI: Well, we had another problem like this that was much more fearsome back in the late '40s. It was called the Soviet Union, when they exploded their device.

I'm afraid that we're going to have to start turning back to some dimensions of the policies that we used to have prior to 1990. You might call this a smaller kind of cold war.

I think we've got to be clear about what we want, and we have to be firm in cutting off currency, particularly hard currency, that goes to the North Korean military through drug sales in Japan, counterfeiting. Our building reactors up there may have to stop.

Unless they have a change of heart and want to open up, and demonstrate to the world that they're out of the bomb-making business, which would probably require a change in regime for them to have that kind of change in heart.

KOPPEL: Well, in order to do that, we know that they're going to have to have China on board. Henry Sokolski, I thank you so much. He is the executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com