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CNN Live Saturday
Interview With Jon Alterman
Aired May 03, 2003 - 12:22 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell is urging Syria and Lebanon to do their part to help in the road map for peace in the Middle East, visiting Beirut on the last stop of a Middle East tour.
Powell called for an immediate end to terrorist attacks by the Lebanon-based militant group Hamas.
And how will terror attacks in Israel affect the Middle East road map and the push for peace? Let's turn to Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Good to see you, Jon.
JON ALTERMAN, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: Thank you, Fredricka, good to see you.
WHITFIELD: This peace plan, what makes this one so different from the others, or more promising than the others?
ALTERMAN: I'm not sure there's a lot that does make it more promising. It talks about how we move to the Tenet work plan, which was a way to get to the Mitchell plan, which was the way to get to the Shah Mashaikh (ph) understanding, since the beginning of this Intifada.
I think everybody really understands where we have to go and what people have to do. The problem is people on each side don't trust the people on the other side to make a deal and stick to it.
WHITFIELD: And Powell is using the term, or using the words "the new dynamic." Does it extend beyond a Palestinian prime minister?
ALTERMAN: Well, certainly, having the new Palestinian prime minister does make a difference and Mahmoud Abbas, in his maiden speech to the Palestinian parliament, did say some very positive things.
But ultimately, as I say, people understand what has to happen. The violence has to stop on both sides. Both populations have to have faith that there's a deal to be had. And once we get there, then a lot is possible.
WHITFIELD: And let's talk about the time line, then. You talk about ending the violence. That's in this phase one. Phase one beginning now, through the month of May. And that is part of the plan. Normalizing Palestinian life. Israelis must withdraw.
Do you see this as a realistic approach and realistic deadline through May?
ALTERMAN: Well, no. This was written originally in the fall, it was supposed to be released in December.
So this is about a five or six-month phase. There's a lot to happen. But at the outset, each side, the Israelis and the Palestinians, basically have to make the case to the other side that they're not going to pursue violence, they're going to pursue negotiations for a two-state solution, recognizing each other. We haven't gotten there yet.
I think both sides, politically, are going to be very, very hard- pressed to make that, with their current governing coalitions.
WHITFIELD: These phases -- there's a phase two which says, you know, restoring stability to the Palestinian state and then phase would take this plan all the way into 2005.
But you brought up an interesting point, that perhaps if you don't have peace in the entire region, involving, say, Syria or even Lebanon, then how could you possibly have any peace drawn up between the Israelis and Palestinians?
ALTERMAN: Well, the idea is that, as we move toward an international conference in about a year's time, that the international community helps a new state of Palestine and that the Israelis also work to negotiate the differences with Syria and with Lebanon. You can really have a comprehensive peace.
Again, the ability to do that depends on Israelis' belief that this really does mean an end to violence. And the Palestinians' belief this really does mean an independent Palestinian state.
I don't think either side either agrees that the other side really wants that, or ultimately thinks this process can work.
And how you do that, how you spur that process, is the that problem people are dealing with right now.
WHITFIELD: Secretary Powell, just quickly, says that this focus of the plan has to be the Israeli/Palestinian conflict and then move on to, say, Syria or Lebanon. Do you think that's a smart move to make?
ALTERMAN: It's absolutely true. The problem is the Arab -- the Palestinian/Israeli problem. But ultimately, the audience can't be the United States; it can't be pleasing the Americans. The Israelis have to address the Palestinians. The Palestinians have to address the Israelis. That's the only way to build the confidence where we can move anywhere in this entire process.
WHITFIELD: All right. Jon Alterman, thank you very much. Good to see you. ALTERMAN: Good to see you, Fredricka.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired May 3, 2003 - 12:22 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell is urging Syria and Lebanon to do their part to help in the road map for peace in the Middle East, visiting Beirut on the last stop of a Middle East tour.
Powell called for an immediate end to terrorist attacks by the Lebanon-based militant group Hamas.
And how will terror attacks in Israel affect the Middle East road map and the push for peace? Let's turn to Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Good to see you, Jon.
JON ALTERMAN, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: Thank you, Fredricka, good to see you.
WHITFIELD: This peace plan, what makes this one so different from the others, or more promising than the others?
ALTERMAN: I'm not sure there's a lot that does make it more promising. It talks about how we move to the Tenet work plan, which was a way to get to the Mitchell plan, which was the way to get to the Shah Mashaikh (ph) understanding, since the beginning of this Intifada.
I think everybody really understands where we have to go and what people have to do. The problem is people on each side don't trust the people on the other side to make a deal and stick to it.
WHITFIELD: And Powell is using the term, or using the words "the new dynamic." Does it extend beyond a Palestinian prime minister?
ALTERMAN: Well, certainly, having the new Palestinian prime minister does make a difference and Mahmoud Abbas, in his maiden speech to the Palestinian parliament, did say some very positive things.
But ultimately, as I say, people understand what has to happen. The violence has to stop on both sides. Both populations have to have faith that there's a deal to be had. And once we get there, then a lot is possible.
WHITFIELD: And let's talk about the time line, then. You talk about ending the violence. That's in this phase one. Phase one beginning now, through the month of May. And that is part of the plan. Normalizing Palestinian life. Israelis must withdraw.
Do you see this as a realistic approach and realistic deadline through May?
ALTERMAN: Well, no. This was written originally in the fall, it was supposed to be released in December.
So this is about a five or six-month phase. There's a lot to happen. But at the outset, each side, the Israelis and the Palestinians, basically have to make the case to the other side that they're not going to pursue violence, they're going to pursue negotiations for a two-state solution, recognizing each other. We haven't gotten there yet.
I think both sides, politically, are going to be very, very hard- pressed to make that, with their current governing coalitions.
WHITFIELD: These phases -- there's a phase two which says, you know, restoring stability to the Palestinian state and then phase would take this plan all the way into 2005.
But you brought up an interesting point, that perhaps if you don't have peace in the entire region, involving, say, Syria or even Lebanon, then how could you possibly have any peace drawn up between the Israelis and Palestinians?
ALTERMAN: Well, the idea is that, as we move toward an international conference in about a year's time, that the international community helps a new state of Palestine and that the Israelis also work to negotiate the differences with Syria and with Lebanon. You can really have a comprehensive peace.
Again, the ability to do that depends on Israelis' belief that this really does mean an end to violence. And the Palestinians' belief this really does mean an independent Palestinian state.
I don't think either side either agrees that the other side really wants that, or ultimately thinks this process can work.
And how you do that, how you spur that process, is the that problem people are dealing with right now.
WHITFIELD: Secretary Powell, just quickly, says that this focus of the plan has to be the Israeli/Palestinian conflict and then move on to, say, Syria or Lebanon. Do you think that's a smart move to make?
ALTERMAN: It's absolutely true. The problem is the Arab -- the Palestinian/Israeli problem. But ultimately, the audience can't be the United States; it can't be pleasing the Americans. The Israelis have to address the Palestinians. The Palestinians have to address the Israelis. That's the only way to build the confidence where we can move anywhere in this entire process.
WHITFIELD: All right. Jon Alterman, thank you very much. Good to see you. ALTERMAN: Good to see you, Fredricka.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
