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CNN Live Saturday

Interview With Shaul Bakhash

Aired June 14, 2003 - 18:21   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN ANCHOR: Shaul Bakhash is a history professor at George Mason University and an expert on Iran. He joins us from Washington to talk about the unrest in Iran.
Professor Bakhash, good evening.

SHAUL BAKHASH, GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY: Good evening.

KOPPEL: Do you think that there is anything behind what the Iranian government is alleging, that these broadcasts are actually helping to foment the demonstrators?

BAKHASH: Well, they certainly are a factor because they give information to Iranians in Tehran. They encourage them to go out and participate in the demonstrations. I would say they are a factor, but I wouldn't exaggerate their role.

KOPPEL: So, what's behind them and how much of a threat are they posing to the government?

BAKHASH: You mean the broadcasts, or the demonstrations?

KOPPEL: The demonstrations, themselves.

BAKHASH: I think these demonstrations of the past few days were significant for a number of reasons. First, the fact that they occurred at all, given the repression and the consequences of participating in them. In addition, this time, non-students were there at least to cheer the demonstrators on and give them verbal encouragement. Third, the slogans that the students shouted were not only for democracy but directed against the leader himself.

And I think the huge turnout of security forces and the fact that the government, in the end, had to resort to thugs to put the demonstrations down, suggests that the regime itself was very concerned about that.

KOPPEL: How much of it -- you mentioned the calls, protesting not only against the Supreme Leader Khamenei, but also calling for his death. How unusual is that?

BAKHASH: It's very unusual. And I think in a way it carries a price with it. Attacking the leader, himself, that directly, under law and in the way this judicial system works, could be very costly if people are caught doing it. But it may indicate the level of frustration and anger at existing conditions. KOPPEL: Is there any doubt in your mind that, you referred to thugs, but these are the pro-government Islamic militia, who are responsible for going into some of the universities and beating up these kids. Is there any doubt in your mind the Khamenei and the government itself was behind that?

BAKHASH: I think not at all, because these thugs have been used in the past. And I think there was a suggestion, a hint or a threat, in the comments made by high state officials that they would be used again. I think everyone in Iran knows these are people paid and supported by the government, itself.

KOPPEL: Well, what did you make then of the fact that the Iranian judiciary called for the arrest of some of these individuals? And the fact of the matter is the judiciary is controlled by the government?

BAKHASH: Well, it could be that in sending out these club wielders and chain wielders to attack the demonstrators, they didn't intend for them to actually enter the student dormitories, which appears to have occurred. But really we have to wait and see how serious this call for the arrest of the thugs is, because in the past, too, there have been such allegations that thugs would be punished and this really has not happened.

KOPPEL: Why are some of the main political parties in Iran not joining the demonstrators? What do you read into that?

BAKHASH: Well, I think this is one of the weaknesses of the present demonstrations, as exciting as they may be to these radio broadcasters abroad, that you showed a few minutes ago. Because Iran's reformist president has been totally silent. The political parties, the main political parties have said nothing. I think they fear widespread demonstrations. They fear a real clash between the demands for reform and the hard-liners. And their exercising what many feel is a excessive caution in supporting some very brave student demonstrators.

KOPPEL: Where do you see this going, Professor Bakhash? Do you see this continuing much longer?

BAKHASH: Obviously, it's very hard to say. Who can predict? But the fact that very hard methods were used against the demonstrators today, or yesterday, suggests the government is not going to allow this to go on much longer.

And I think this will mean that, certainly, non-students who have been giving verbal and moral encouragement to the students may not be out in the streets much longer. Last November and December we saw a similar series of student demonstrations. But they didn't have sustainability. And I think the reason is precisely they are spontaneous demonstrations. There isn't behind them an organization, political parties, a strategy and a plan.

KOPPEL: Professor Shaul Bakhash, joining us from Washington. Thank you so much. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired June 14, 2003 - 18:21   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN ANCHOR: Shaul Bakhash is a history professor at George Mason University and an expert on Iran. He joins us from Washington to talk about the unrest in Iran.
Professor Bakhash, good evening.

SHAUL BAKHASH, GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY: Good evening.

KOPPEL: Do you think that there is anything behind what the Iranian government is alleging, that these broadcasts are actually helping to foment the demonstrators?

BAKHASH: Well, they certainly are a factor because they give information to Iranians in Tehran. They encourage them to go out and participate in the demonstrations. I would say they are a factor, but I wouldn't exaggerate their role.

KOPPEL: So, what's behind them and how much of a threat are they posing to the government?

BAKHASH: You mean the broadcasts, or the demonstrations?

KOPPEL: The demonstrations, themselves.

BAKHASH: I think these demonstrations of the past few days were significant for a number of reasons. First, the fact that they occurred at all, given the repression and the consequences of participating in them. In addition, this time, non-students were there at least to cheer the demonstrators on and give them verbal encouragement. Third, the slogans that the students shouted were not only for democracy but directed against the leader himself.

And I think the huge turnout of security forces and the fact that the government, in the end, had to resort to thugs to put the demonstrations down, suggests that the regime itself was very concerned about that.

KOPPEL: How much of it -- you mentioned the calls, protesting not only against the Supreme Leader Khamenei, but also calling for his death. How unusual is that?

BAKHASH: It's very unusual. And I think in a way it carries a price with it. Attacking the leader, himself, that directly, under law and in the way this judicial system works, could be very costly if people are caught doing it. But it may indicate the level of frustration and anger at existing conditions. KOPPEL: Is there any doubt in your mind that, you referred to thugs, but these are the pro-government Islamic militia, who are responsible for going into some of the universities and beating up these kids. Is there any doubt in your mind the Khamenei and the government itself was behind that?

BAKHASH: I think not at all, because these thugs have been used in the past. And I think there was a suggestion, a hint or a threat, in the comments made by high state officials that they would be used again. I think everyone in Iran knows these are people paid and supported by the government, itself.

KOPPEL: Well, what did you make then of the fact that the Iranian judiciary called for the arrest of some of these individuals? And the fact of the matter is the judiciary is controlled by the government?

BAKHASH: Well, it could be that in sending out these club wielders and chain wielders to attack the demonstrators, they didn't intend for them to actually enter the student dormitories, which appears to have occurred. But really we have to wait and see how serious this call for the arrest of the thugs is, because in the past, too, there have been such allegations that thugs would be punished and this really has not happened.

KOPPEL: Why are some of the main political parties in Iran not joining the demonstrators? What do you read into that?

BAKHASH: Well, I think this is one of the weaknesses of the present demonstrations, as exciting as they may be to these radio broadcasters abroad, that you showed a few minutes ago. Because Iran's reformist president has been totally silent. The political parties, the main political parties have said nothing. I think they fear widespread demonstrations. They fear a real clash between the demands for reform and the hard-liners. And their exercising what many feel is a excessive caution in supporting some very brave student demonstrators.

KOPPEL: Where do you see this going, Professor Bakhash? Do you see this continuing much longer?

BAKHASH: Obviously, it's very hard to say. Who can predict? But the fact that very hard methods were used against the demonstrators today, or yesterday, suggests the government is not going to allow this to go on much longer.

And I think this will mean that, certainly, non-students who have been giving verbal and moral encouragement to the students may not be out in the streets much longer. Last November and December we saw a similar series of student demonstrations. But they didn't have sustainability. And I think the reason is precisely they are spontaneous demonstrations. There isn't behind them an organization, political parties, a strategy and a plan.

KOPPEL: Professor Shaul Bakhash, joining us from Washington. Thank you so much. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com