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CNN Live Saturday
Analisis Of The Success Of U.S. In Iraq
Aired July 26, 2003 - 18:12 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOPHIA CHOI, CNN ANCHOR: Middle East expert and CNN analyst Ken Pollack joins us now.
Ken, you've heard the reports about three soldiers killed today in Iraq. In the U.S., there was some hope that these attacks would stop. Do you think today's attack is in fact a direct result of the killings of Saddam's sons?
KEN POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Well, obviously, Sophia, it's very hard to tell. My guess is that U.S. Central Command even doesn't really have -- and understand exactly who committed these attacks.
But I think that the attacks do underscore the fact that it was never likely that the death of the two sons was going to lead to the evaporation of all resistance inside Iraq.
First, it's unclear how much the sons were actually controlling of the attacks against U.S. soldiers. Beyond that, there seem to be very many groups, small, very small groups. But nevertheless, a number of different groups out there who are conducting attacks against the U.S.
We've heard Paul Bremer, the U.S. envoy responsible for Iraq say that these don't seem to be coordinated. That suggest lots of people are taking shots at Americans.
CHOI: What kind of reaction, if any, do you think that we'll see from Saddam Hussein after the deaths of his sons?
POLLACK: Well, Saddam clearly has an interest in demonstrating that the death of his two sons is not going to prevent him from conducting attacks against the United States.
And so it is possible that the attacks that we've seen in the last few days were orchestrated by Saddam deliberately to demonstrate that the loss of his sons isn't going to stop him, isn't going to lead to the, you know, destruction of his element of the resistance.
Nevertheless, we also have to assume that Saddam is probably very frightened by what the U.S. may have found by the mere fact that the U.S. was able to locate his two sons. It suggests that the U.S. has been able to compromise the security measures that Saddam and his sons and other key regime - former regime figures are using.
And therefore, Saddam may right now be just running for his life. He may be trying to get away from the U.S. to get as much distance as he can, for fear that the U.S. knows something and can turn it against him.
CHOI: So what do you mean, fleeing the country?
POLLACK: No, I doubt fleeing the country. That's not Saddam's MO. But what we learned from the sons from the experience of the death of the sons is that Saddam and the sons and the other key former regime officials seem to continue to be moving around the country. They don't seem to have one particular stronghold that they're holed up in. Instead, they seem to be bouncing from place to place, trying to stay one step ahead of the United States forces.
And so, what probably is going on right now is that Saddam is probably moving as quickly as he can to kind of sort the deck and prevent the United States from using any intelligence, any information that it got in the raid on that house in the building with Uday and Qusay, to be able to pin down Saddam and find him in a particular location.
CHOI: Yes, I mean, if Iraqis don't see something bad happening to this informant who turned Uday and Qusay's whereabouts, do you think that it'd be easier to find Saddam? Do you think people will start coming out of the woodwork with more information?
POLLACK: Yes, I think it's a really important point, Sophia. That informant now is tremendously important. If the U.S. can keep him alive, can make sure that he gets his $30 million and that he lives to enjoy it, that's going to send a powerful signal to the rest of the country that Saddam's ability to retaliate against people who inform on him is very low.
And what's more, there are real material benefits from doing so. Under the circumstances, you may see additional people coming forward willing to turn on Saddam. By the same token, if the U.S. can't keep that person alive, and you have to imagine that Saddam and his cohorts are trying very hard to kill that person, and if they're able to do so, that will have a chilling effect on the Iraqis and probably will lead to anyone who is thinking about coming forward keeping their mouth shut.
CHOI: But on the flip side, don't you think it's tougher for Saddam to kind of remain in the shadows with all these people hunting for him?
POLLACK: Oh, absolutely. And I think that that is one of the lessons from the events of this week is that the U.S. is systematically tracking down regime figures. And they are - they do seem to be getting closer and closer to Saddam.
We just don't know how close. And obviously he might be able to slip the net, but it does seem like coalition forces have got a pretty good sense of how the former regime officials are operating, how they're moving around and are getting closer and closer to them.
CHOI: CNN analyst Ken Pollack, it's always good to see you and get your insights. Thanks.
POLLACK: Thank you, Sophia.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired July 26, 2003 - 18:12 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOPHIA CHOI, CNN ANCHOR: Middle East expert and CNN analyst Ken Pollack joins us now.
Ken, you've heard the reports about three soldiers killed today in Iraq. In the U.S., there was some hope that these attacks would stop. Do you think today's attack is in fact a direct result of the killings of Saddam's sons?
KEN POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Well, obviously, Sophia, it's very hard to tell. My guess is that U.S. Central Command even doesn't really have -- and understand exactly who committed these attacks.
But I think that the attacks do underscore the fact that it was never likely that the death of the two sons was going to lead to the evaporation of all resistance inside Iraq.
First, it's unclear how much the sons were actually controlling of the attacks against U.S. soldiers. Beyond that, there seem to be very many groups, small, very small groups. But nevertheless, a number of different groups out there who are conducting attacks against the U.S.
We've heard Paul Bremer, the U.S. envoy responsible for Iraq say that these don't seem to be coordinated. That suggest lots of people are taking shots at Americans.
CHOI: What kind of reaction, if any, do you think that we'll see from Saddam Hussein after the deaths of his sons?
POLLACK: Well, Saddam clearly has an interest in demonstrating that the death of his two sons is not going to prevent him from conducting attacks against the United States.
And so it is possible that the attacks that we've seen in the last few days were orchestrated by Saddam deliberately to demonstrate that the loss of his sons isn't going to stop him, isn't going to lead to the, you know, destruction of his element of the resistance.
Nevertheless, we also have to assume that Saddam is probably very frightened by what the U.S. may have found by the mere fact that the U.S. was able to locate his two sons. It suggests that the U.S. has been able to compromise the security measures that Saddam and his sons and other key regime - former regime figures are using.
And therefore, Saddam may right now be just running for his life. He may be trying to get away from the U.S. to get as much distance as he can, for fear that the U.S. knows something and can turn it against him.
CHOI: So what do you mean, fleeing the country?
POLLACK: No, I doubt fleeing the country. That's not Saddam's MO. But what we learned from the sons from the experience of the death of the sons is that Saddam and the sons and the other key former regime officials seem to continue to be moving around the country. They don't seem to have one particular stronghold that they're holed up in. Instead, they seem to be bouncing from place to place, trying to stay one step ahead of the United States forces.
And so, what probably is going on right now is that Saddam is probably moving as quickly as he can to kind of sort the deck and prevent the United States from using any intelligence, any information that it got in the raid on that house in the building with Uday and Qusay, to be able to pin down Saddam and find him in a particular location.
CHOI: Yes, I mean, if Iraqis don't see something bad happening to this informant who turned Uday and Qusay's whereabouts, do you think that it'd be easier to find Saddam? Do you think people will start coming out of the woodwork with more information?
POLLACK: Yes, I think it's a really important point, Sophia. That informant now is tremendously important. If the U.S. can keep him alive, can make sure that he gets his $30 million and that he lives to enjoy it, that's going to send a powerful signal to the rest of the country that Saddam's ability to retaliate against people who inform on him is very low.
And what's more, there are real material benefits from doing so. Under the circumstances, you may see additional people coming forward willing to turn on Saddam. By the same token, if the U.S. can't keep that person alive, and you have to imagine that Saddam and his cohorts are trying very hard to kill that person, and if they're able to do so, that will have a chilling effect on the Iraqis and probably will lead to anyone who is thinking about coming forward keeping their mouth shut.
CHOI: But on the flip side, don't you think it's tougher for Saddam to kind of remain in the shadows with all these people hunting for him?
POLLACK: Oh, absolutely. And I think that that is one of the lessons from the events of this week is that the U.S. is systematically tracking down regime figures. And they are - they do seem to be getting closer and closer to Saddam.
We just don't know how close. And obviously he might be able to slip the net, but it does seem like coalition forces have got a pretty good sense of how the former regime officials are operating, how they're moving around and are getting closer and closer to them.
CHOI: CNN analyst Ken Pollack, it's always good to see you and get your insights. Thanks.
POLLACK: Thank you, Sophia.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
