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CNN Live Saturday
Update On Afghanistan's Struggle For Stability
Aired August 02, 2003 - 18:32 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KELLI ARENA, CNN ANCHOR: Now to another hot spot for U.S. forces, Afghanistan. Osama bin Laden remains one of the world's most sought after men, even as his former stronghold is being remade into a new nation. But the country is still struggling to establish some of the basics of a working government. And remnants of al Qaeda and the Taliban continue to combat U.S. forces along the Pakistani border.
Well, how close are U.S. troops to accomplishing their mission there? Let's bring back Frank Anderson in Washington, the former CIA Near East and South Asia Division chief, and "Washington Post" reporter Marc Kaufman in San Francisco. Gentlemen, thank you both for joining us.
MARC KAUFMAN, WASHINGTON POST: Pleased to be here.
ARENA: Frank, let's start with you. Obviously, there's been a lot of criticism that Osama bin Laden, Afghanistan in general, has moved to the back burner because of attention paid to Iraq and Baghdad. How much, do you think, that that's hurt the situation in Afghanistan, or has it?
FRANK ANDERSON, FORMER CIA DIVISION CHIEF: Hard to tell if it has. We are certainly committed and engaged in Afghanistan, and we are deeply into the search for bin Laden and any other remaining elements of al Qaeda, but it's a real tough one to do.
There is a constant balancing act, because Afghanistan and that part of Pakistan in which bin Laden is probably hiding are, in fact, engaged in a continuing civil war. It isn't just time to nation build, but we are trying to help construct a new government and conduct this search for bin Laden in the context of tribal and political fights that are ongoing.
And we need to continue balancing between all those factions. It's a real complex and tough job.
ARENA: Marc, you were just there in March. What did you hear from U.S. troops there? Did they feel like they were making progress in their mission?
KAUFMAN: I think, many would say, that yes, Afghanistan is far more stable now than it was a year, a year and a half ago. And that they're making progress in terms of keeping the level of violence down. That said, I was at the Afghan-Pakistani border in Afghanistan, and there some of the American troops were very dissatisfied by the fact that Pakistan appeared to be allowing al Qaeda and Taliban people to go back and forth, over the border. So there was a great deal of dissatisfaction about that.
ARENA: Frank, as you know, all of the experts say that it is crucial for the United States to remain engaged in this region. But it does seem, at least according to some terrorism experts, that al Qaeda, the Taliban, just waiting in the wings for the U.S. to grow disinterested, to pull back. Do you think that there is a strong enough contingent of the Taliban and al Qaeda there to reconstitute themselves in a big way?
ANDERSON: I don't believe that they're able to reconstitute themselves in a big way, but as I said earlier, on both sides of that border, the political situation is sufficiently complex that there's room for them to exploit those splits and to hide within fights. They can find people who are against either the Pakistani or the Afghan government, or simply corrupt that will help them.
I don't believe that we're in any real danger of getting out of there to the point that the pressure on them will abate, but it's still, as I said earlier, this is going to be a tough one, and the outcome is, I think, easy to predict -- ultimately we'll find him -- but the timing is just way beyond my capability to identify.
ARENA: Marc, you mentioned before, you were around the Pakistani-Afghan border, where many intelligence officials believe that Osama bin Laden is hiding. Can you describe the situation there for us?
KAUFMAN: Well, in different parts of the border, it's quite different, but for the most part, I think it would be fair to say that this is a porous border, and on either side you have Pasthun tribesmen and frequently their loyalties are not clear or to people who are tribal leaders who are close to the Taliban or close to al Qaeda.
That said, one of the things that I found striking about the Afghanistan that I saw earlier this year was that there was a lot of things that are actually going right. The reason that it's often described as kind of a forgotten war because there aren't that many casualties that are occurring, that the American military is doing -- seems to either be doing a better job or is dealing with a different kind of foe, and that also there is an international force there; that's a very important difference between what's happening in Afghanistan and in Iraq. Clearly, this is an international effort, and I think that that changes the way that the people see it.
ARENA: Well, do you think that that has had an impact on morale there? I mean, the fact that this is not in the headlines as much as it used to be, and that successes are quiet successes?
KAUFMAN: I did not detect any sense of poor morale in that sense. People were pretty determined about going about doing their jobs. That said, you do have a lot of reservists and National Guard folks who didn't necessarily think that they were going to be spending such a long time far away in a pretty dangerous place. But except for those who are really exposed along the border, the only complaints that I heard were that it sometimes got pretty boring. ARENA: All right. Frank, very quickly for me, if you can, how optimistic are you that Afghanistan can rebuild, get itself on solid footing?
ANDERSON: Actually, I'm quite optimistic, except that I have very limited expectations. You have to remember, a lot of the things that we're holding them to in terms of expectations on levels of democracy, protection of human rights, improvement in the role of women, are alien to the culture. They certainly weren't there 10 years ago or 20 years ago, and it's going to be hard for us to achieve that over the short term.
But so far, I would say Afghanistan is one of those places where every day is an opportunity to make a major mistake, and the U.S. for the last almost two years has avoided that opportunity every time. I think we're managing a tough situation quite well.
ARENA: All right. Myriad of challenges. Frank Anderson, Marc Kaufman, thank you both for joining us. Take care.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired August 2, 2003 - 18:32 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KELLI ARENA, CNN ANCHOR: Now to another hot spot for U.S. forces, Afghanistan. Osama bin Laden remains one of the world's most sought after men, even as his former stronghold is being remade into a new nation. But the country is still struggling to establish some of the basics of a working government. And remnants of al Qaeda and the Taliban continue to combat U.S. forces along the Pakistani border.
Well, how close are U.S. troops to accomplishing their mission there? Let's bring back Frank Anderson in Washington, the former CIA Near East and South Asia Division chief, and "Washington Post" reporter Marc Kaufman in San Francisco. Gentlemen, thank you both for joining us.
MARC KAUFMAN, WASHINGTON POST: Pleased to be here.
ARENA: Frank, let's start with you. Obviously, there's been a lot of criticism that Osama bin Laden, Afghanistan in general, has moved to the back burner because of attention paid to Iraq and Baghdad. How much, do you think, that that's hurt the situation in Afghanistan, or has it?
FRANK ANDERSON, FORMER CIA DIVISION CHIEF: Hard to tell if it has. We are certainly committed and engaged in Afghanistan, and we are deeply into the search for bin Laden and any other remaining elements of al Qaeda, but it's a real tough one to do.
There is a constant balancing act, because Afghanistan and that part of Pakistan in which bin Laden is probably hiding are, in fact, engaged in a continuing civil war. It isn't just time to nation build, but we are trying to help construct a new government and conduct this search for bin Laden in the context of tribal and political fights that are ongoing.
And we need to continue balancing between all those factions. It's a real complex and tough job.
ARENA: Marc, you were just there in March. What did you hear from U.S. troops there? Did they feel like they were making progress in their mission?
KAUFMAN: I think, many would say, that yes, Afghanistan is far more stable now than it was a year, a year and a half ago. And that they're making progress in terms of keeping the level of violence down. That said, I was at the Afghan-Pakistani border in Afghanistan, and there some of the American troops were very dissatisfied by the fact that Pakistan appeared to be allowing al Qaeda and Taliban people to go back and forth, over the border. So there was a great deal of dissatisfaction about that.
ARENA: Frank, as you know, all of the experts say that it is crucial for the United States to remain engaged in this region. But it does seem, at least according to some terrorism experts, that al Qaeda, the Taliban, just waiting in the wings for the U.S. to grow disinterested, to pull back. Do you think that there is a strong enough contingent of the Taliban and al Qaeda there to reconstitute themselves in a big way?
ANDERSON: I don't believe that they're able to reconstitute themselves in a big way, but as I said earlier, on both sides of that border, the political situation is sufficiently complex that there's room for them to exploit those splits and to hide within fights. They can find people who are against either the Pakistani or the Afghan government, or simply corrupt that will help them.
I don't believe that we're in any real danger of getting out of there to the point that the pressure on them will abate, but it's still, as I said earlier, this is going to be a tough one, and the outcome is, I think, easy to predict -- ultimately we'll find him -- but the timing is just way beyond my capability to identify.
ARENA: Marc, you mentioned before, you were around the Pakistani-Afghan border, where many intelligence officials believe that Osama bin Laden is hiding. Can you describe the situation there for us?
KAUFMAN: Well, in different parts of the border, it's quite different, but for the most part, I think it would be fair to say that this is a porous border, and on either side you have Pasthun tribesmen and frequently their loyalties are not clear or to people who are tribal leaders who are close to the Taliban or close to al Qaeda.
That said, one of the things that I found striking about the Afghanistan that I saw earlier this year was that there was a lot of things that are actually going right. The reason that it's often described as kind of a forgotten war because there aren't that many casualties that are occurring, that the American military is doing -- seems to either be doing a better job or is dealing with a different kind of foe, and that also there is an international force there; that's a very important difference between what's happening in Afghanistan and in Iraq. Clearly, this is an international effort, and I think that that changes the way that the people see it.
ARENA: Well, do you think that that has had an impact on morale there? I mean, the fact that this is not in the headlines as much as it used to be, and that successes are quiet successes?
KAUFMAN: I did not detect any sense of poor morale in that sense. People were pretty determined about going about doing their jobs. That said, you do have a lot of reservists and National Guard folks who didn't necessarily think that they were going to be spending such a long time far away in a pretty dangerous place. But except for those who are really exposed along the border, the only complaints that I heard were that it sometimes got pretty boring. ARENA: All right. Frank, very quickly for me, if you can, how optimistic are you that Afghanistan can rebuild, get itself on solid footing?
ANDERSON: Actually, I'm quite optimistic, except that I have very limited expectations. You have to remember, a lot of the things that we're holding them to in terms of expectations on levels of democracy, protection of human rights, improvement in the role of women, are alien to the culture. They certainly weren't there 10 years ago or 20 years ago, and it's going to be hard for us to achieve that over the short term.
But so far, I would say Afghanistan is one of those places where every day is an opportunity to make a major mistake, and the U.S. for the last almost two years has avoided that opportunity every time. I think we're managing a tough situation quite well.
ARENA: All right. Myriad of challenges. Frank Anderson, Marc Kaufman, thank you both for joining us. Take care.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
