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CNN Live Saturday

Ron Brownstein Discusses The Politics Of Frontrunners In California

Aired August 09, 2003 - 18:15   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


KELLI ARENA, CNN ANCHOR: One of the other candidates in this wild campaign already is taking a stand on one issue, and a thorny one at that, taxes.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HUFFINGTON: I will definitely not rule out raising taxes. I think it is irresponsible to tie into the Bush administration's fanatical ideology about tax cuts.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ARENA: Political analyst and "Los Angeles Times" reporter Ron Brownstein is watching all of this in Washington.

Ron, let's get to Schwarzenegger in a second. But first, I want to ask how wise is this move by Huffington, leaving the door open to raise taxes just right off the bat?

RON BROWNSTEIN, "LOS ANGELES TIMES": Well, I mean, I don't really - I mean I think she's a candidate who's going to have to do whatever she can to get noticed. I mean she's not someone who's going to begin in the first tier of this very strange race, which is really two races.

I mean, we have to keep in mind, there's sort of like a football field with two games going on at the same time.

Gray Davis is running almost against himself to save his job. And if he can do that, everything else is moot. And then you have the competition among everybody else to become the alternative if he fails to save his job.

For someone like Huffington, I think you're going to see quite a bit of this, I mean quite a bit of provocative positioning, because what she really has is access to the media and the ability to generate some headlines, more than any natural political base. And perhaps you'll see that with some of the other candidates also.

I wonder what Peter Ueberroth - people wanted him to run 10 years ago. Here he is finally running for governor long after, perhaps the sheen of running those Olympics in L.A. What is going to do to get noticed?

Bill Simon, with Arnold Schwarzenegger in the race, how badly does Bill Simon want to be governor? Does he want to attack Arnold Schwarzenegger from the right on social issues, which could be popular with a lot of Republican voters who may have questions when they learn those positions.

So I think we have some fascinating questions for all of these candidates in this very complex competition.

ARENA: Well, is it a little too early to write Davis off? I mean, early polls are showing that a little more than half of Californians say yes, that they would recall him. But it's early days, isn't it? I mean, even though we're just looking at October, still this is just sort of coming into the public consciousness?

BROWNSTEIN: Right. I would agree. I mean, I think it is too early to write him off. You'd have to say he is in a difficult position at this point. Both your poll today and our poll in July found a narrow majority of people now saying they would recall him.

He is very good at running campaigns. He'll have a lot of institutional support, but Democrats, I think, feel their mission has been enormously complicated by the entry of those two Democrats, Cruz Bustamante and John Garamendi into the race because the message becomes a lot more complicated at this point. Can you really portray this as a Republican power grab, which Davis wanted to do, when you have Democrats saying yes, I'm here as an alternative.

ARENA: That's right. Now let's say, hypothetically, they go for a recall. Is this then Arnold's to lose?

BROWNSTEIN: I think that's a little strong. You saw the advantage that he has in your poll, which is name identification. I was surprised 15 percent of the people even know who Cruz Bustamante is at this point, given the amount of coverage that politics gets on California television.

He is in a strong position because you can win with a very low number in a field this crowded. And his name identification and his money should give him a floor somewhere in that range, at least 20 percent.

But Kelli, it is a very Democratic state. The Democrats that have won it by over a million votes, three times in a row in presidential politics, and if the Democrats can make this alternative choice into a party choice, it gets a lot tougher for Schwarzenegger. And I think, you know, in something like this, it's much too early to tell, because none of the campaigns have begun. And as your spot mentioned, we could see as much as $50 million spent here.

Everything's going to be moving. And I wouldn't rely too much on anything that we see today. But yes, he has that one big advantage. Name identification is very expensive in California. He starts off with it. No one else in the field really does.

ARENA: But the White House not really getting very involved here. But California is pivotal. The - President Bush lost by a big margin in 2000. BROWNSTEIN: Yes. Well, actually, I think the White House has been very consistent. Look, last year as Dana Bash reported, they tried to engineer Dick Reardon to be the governor nominee for the Republican party. And they got crushed in the primary by conservatives who said we don't want a pro-choice moderate as a nominee.

And I think they felt very burned by that. And they have stayed out of this on the theory that they didn't think anybody in California was going to listen to them anyway if they told them not to do it. They've always been ambivalent at the national level, Kelli, because they're not sure whether they're better off with an unpopular Gray Davis there in 2004 for Bush. Or having a Republican governor, who's popularity by then might be slipping because he's facing the same enormous problems Davis did.

The other thing, though, is they really don't have to win California to win. It is such a Democratic leaning state that by the time George W. Bush wins it, he will have already won the presidency. It'll never be one of his first 270 electoral votes.

What they really want to do is force the Democrat to spend time and money there. And a Republican governor might be able to help on that front.

ARENA: Ron, we just got some word that John Garamendi, the state's insurance commissioner, is not running.

BROWNSTEIN: Ah, yes, well...

ARENA: Does that surprise you?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, no, there's been pressure on him to drop out. Look, one of the key questions here is which side can consolidate its vote better.

I think that the best chance Democrats have of avoiding Schwarzenegger, who begins with his name ID advantage, is the ability to have one candidate, the lieutenant governor, in the field that could become the repository of the vast majority of Democratic votes.

This is a good development for the Democrats. Garamendi was someone who was not polling very well, is not very well known, probably couldn't have run a very effective campaign, but still would have splintered away some of those votes.

ARENA: So now it looks like it's between Davis and Bustamante, then on the Democratic side.

BROWNSTEIN: Well, yes, well Bustamante, of course, is saying, look, my message is going to be vote no on the recall, but if the recall passes, I want to be there as the alternative.

Right now, you would have a situation where you have one big name viable Democrat in the race. And two and perhaps three, if you count Ueberroth, Republicans. So of course, the danger there is that that vote is split up more.

Bustamante, Cruz Bustamante's going to have to get better known, you know, whether he can run an effective campaign that gets his name out there and makes him a viable alternative to more voters. Most of them have no idea who he is.

Bill Schneider mentioned the showing of Schwarzenegger among Latinos. That may not last if in fact there is money put behind this alternative.

But again for the Democrats, Kelli, it's a complicated message to say don't vote for the thing at all. But if you do, vote for me.

ARENA: Right.

BROWNSTEIN: That's not easy. And in some ways, it's a cleaner shot for the Republicans.

ARENA: All right, Ron Brownstein, CNN political analyst, thanks so much for joining us.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com





California>


Aired August 9, 2003 - 18:15   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KELLI ARENA, CNN ANCHOR: One of the other candidates in this wild campaign already is taking a stand on one issue, and a thorny one at that, taxes.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HUFFINGTON: I will definitely not rule out raising taxes. I think it is irresponsible to tie into the Bush administration's fanatical ideology about tax cuts.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ARENA: Political analyst and "Los Angeles Times" reporter Ron Brownstein is watching all of this in Washington.

Ron, let's get to Schwarzenegger in a second. But first, I want to ask how wise is this move by Huffington, leaving the door open to raise taxes just right off the bat?

RON BROWNSTEIN, "LOS ANGELES TIMES": Well, I mean, I don't really - I mean I think she's a candidate who's going to have to do whatever she can to get noticed. I mean she's not someone who's going to begin in the first tier of this very strange race, which is really two races.

I mean, we have to keep in mind, there's sort of like a football field with two games going on at the same time.

Gray Davis is running almost against himself to save his job. And if he can do that, everything else is moot. And then you have the competition among everybody else to become the alternative if he fails to save his job.

For someone like Huffington, I think you're going to see quite a bit of this, I mean quite a bit of provocative positioning, because what she really has is access to the media and the ability to generate some headlines, more than any natural political base. And perhaps you'll see that with some of the other candidates also.

I wonder what Peter Ueberroth - people wanted him to run 10 years ago. Here he is finally running for governor long after, perhaps the sheen of running those Olympics in L.A. What is going to do to get noticed?

Bill Simon, with Arnold Schwarzenegger in the race, how badly does Bill Simon want to be governor? Does he want to attack Arnold Schwarzenegger from the right on social issues, which could be popular with a lot of Republican voters who may have questions when they learn those positions.

So I think we have some fascinating questions for all of these candidates in this very complex competition.

ARENA: Well, is it a little too early to write Davis off? I mean, early polls are showing that a little more than half of Californians say yes, that they would recall him. But it's early days, isn't it? I mean, even though we're just looking at October, still this is just sort of coming into the public consciousness?

BROWNSTEIN: Right. I would agree. I mean, I think it is too early to write him off. You'd have to say he is in a difficult position at this point. Both your poll today and our poll in July found a narrow majority of people now saying they would recall him.

He is very good at running campaigns. He'll have a lot of institutional support, but Democrats, I think, feel their mission has been enormously complicated by the entry of those two Democrats, Cruz Bustamante and John Garamendi into the race because the message becomes a lot more complicated at this point. Can you really portray this as a Republican power grab, which Davis wanted to do, when you have Democrats saying yes, I'm here as an alternative.

ARENA: That's right. Now let's say, hypothetically, they go for a recall. Is this then Arnold's to lose?

BROWNSTEIN: I think that's a little strong. You saw the advantage that he has in your poll, which is name identification. I was surprised 15 percent of the people even know who Cruz Bustamante is at this point, given the amount of coverage that politics gets on California television.

He is in a strong position because you can win with a very low number in a field this crowded. And his name identification and his money should give him a floor somewhere in that range, at least 20 percent.

But Kelli, it is a very Democratic state. The Democrats that have won it by over a million votes, three times in a row in presidential politics, and if the Democrats can make this alternative choice into a party choice, it gets a lot tougher for Schwarzenegger. And I think, you know, in something like this, it's much too early to tell, because none of the campaigns have begun. And as your spot mentioned, we could see as much as $50 million spent here.

Everything's going to be moving. And I wouldn't rely too much on anything that we see today. But yes, he has that one big advantage. Name identification is very expensive in California. He starts off with it. No one else in the field really does.

ARENA: But the White House not really getting very involved here. But California is pivotal. The - President Bush lost by a big margin in 2000. BROWNSTEIN: Yes. Well, actually, I think the White House has been very consistent. Look, last year as Dana Bash reported, they tried to engineer Dick Reardon to be the governor nominee for the Republican party. And they got crushed in the primary by conservatives who said we don't want a pro-choice moderate as a nominee.

And I think they felt very burned by that. And they have stayed out of this on the theory that they didn't think anybody in California was going to listen to them anyway if they told them not to do it. They've always been ambivalent at the national level, Kelli, because they're not sure whether they're better off with an unpopular Gray Davis there in 2004 for Bush. Or having a Republican governor, who's popularity by then might be slipping because he's facing the same enormous problems Davis did.

The other thing, though, is they really don't have to win California to win. It is such a Democratic leaning state that by the time George W. Bush wins it, he will have already won the presidency. It'll never be one of his first 270 electoral votes.

What they really want to do is force the Democrat to spend time and money there. And a Republican governor might be able to help on that front.

ARENA: Ron, we just got some word that John Garamendi, the state's insurance commissioner, is not running.

BROWNSTEIN: Ah, yes, well...

ARENA: Does that surprise you?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, no, there's been pressure on him to drop out. Look, one of the key questions here is which side can consolidate its vote better.

I think that the best chance Democrats have of avoiding Schwarzenegger, who begins with his name ID advantage, is the ability to have one candidate, the lieutenant governor, in the field that could become the repository of the vast majority of Democratic votes.

This is a good development for the Democrats. Garamendi was someone who was not polling very well, is not very well known, probably couldn't have run a very effective campaign, but still would have splintered away some of those votes.

ARENA: So now it looks like it's between Davis and Bustamante, then on the Democratic side.

BROWNSTEIN: Well, yes, well Bustamante, of course, is saying, look, my message is going to be vote no on the recall, but if the recall passes, I want to be there as the alternative.

Right now, you would have a situation where you have one big name viable Democrat in the race. And two and perhaps three, if you count Ueberroth, Republicans. So of course, the danger there is that that vote is split up more.

Bustamante, Cruz Bustamante's going to have to get better known, you know, whether he can run an effective campaign that gets his name out there and makes him a viable alternative to more voters. Most of them have no idea who he is.

Bill Schneider mentioned the showing of Schwarzenegger among Latinos. That may not last if in fact there is money put behind this alternative.

But again for the Democrats, Kelli, it's a complicated message to say don't vote for the thing at all. But if you do, vote for me.

ARENA: Right.

BROWNSTEIN: That's not easy. And in some ways, it's a cleaner shot for the Republicans.

ARENA: All right, Ron Brownstein, CNN political analyst, thanks so much for joining us.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com





California>