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CNN Live Saturday
Pressure on Iran to Be Open About Nuclear Program
Aired September 13, 2003 - 12:35 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, ANCHOR: U.S. intelligence experts are puzzled by North Korea's apparent move to halt operations at its Pyongyang nuclear plant.
"The New York Times" reports officials are debating whether the shut down is due to a technical problem or perhaps is a goodwill gesture. The North restarted the plant in February but given what the U.S. feels is a small scale operation, it's not clear if the north could have re-processed enough spent fuel to make a new weapon by now.
The CIA says the North probably has one or two nuclear devices already in hand. The U.S. and U.N. will navigate tricky political ground with Iran in the coming weeks over its nuclear programs. U.N. nuclear experts are giving Iran a deadline of October 31 to prove its program is for peaceful purposes.
The Iranians walked out after the vote in Vienna yesterday. Iran hinted it may follow North Korea and pull out of the nuclear nonproliferation treaty.
The deadline sets up the possibility for Security Council involvement in November. And that could mean sanctions against Iran and perhaps, according to the Iranians, a U.S. military invasion.
Let's talk about all this with Jim Walsh, an international security fellow at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government. And he's with us from Boston.
Good to see you, Jim.
JIM WALSH, HARVARD UNIVERSITY: Good to see you, Fredricka.
WHITFIELD: All right, the deadline, October 31, what must be delivered by then?
WALSH: Well, there's a long laundry list of issues that Iran has to address in order to meet this deadline. They have to sign the additional protocol. That's the new strengthened set of inspections that the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, developed after the Gulf War.
This is the first time that I recall in the history of the IAEA where they are dictating to a country and saying, "You must sign this new safeguards agreement."
In addition to that, they have to provide more information about these centrifuges, these centrifuges that IAEA found with highly enriched uranium in. The highly enriched uranium is the material used to make a nuclear weapon.
They have to allow greater inspections, produce more records. There's a number of different steps they have to take.
WHITFIELD: All right. You touched on inspections, asking for greater inspections. Haven't there been some IAEA inspections in the past six months?
WALSH: There have been a series of visits and inspections, but IAEA, in its latest report, a report that was issued last week, indicated that while they know more information about the Iran program, there are many issues that are left unresolved.
And in fact, it says in today's announcement, or yesterday's announcement, that there are more questions now than there were six months ago, two months ago.
Part of their concern -- and this was really interesting in the announcement that they released yesterday -- that it appears as if there were adjustments or physical alterations made to the Kali (ph) electric plant, which would have reduced the ability of those inspections or, in this case, environmental sampling to have worked effectively. IAEA uses environmental sampling to sort of test the air, the water and the ground to see if there's radioactive material there.
WHITFIELD: So this environmental sampling indicates that something other than peaceful purposes, other than this nuclear power for electricity, is being used?
WALSH: We can't draw that conclusion yet, and IAEA was very specific in saying that they need more information.
First of all, IAEA were surprised to find that there were bits or traces of highly enriched uranium. The Iranian response to that was, "Well, this was trace material left over from the country that we imported the centrifuges from."
But it appears, at least in yesterday's declaration, that there's several discrepancies or changes in Iranian statements over time.
So IAEA is not concluding that Iran is making nuclear weapons; it's not concluding that it's violated the nuclear nonproliferation treaty. But it is saying, in order to answer those questions, it needs more information and thus the October deadline.
Let me hasten to add, Fredricka, the other big news here, is that it's called on Iran to cease its uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities. This is a landmark decision in the history of IAEA.
WHITFIELD: And in fact, this Iranian delegation is calling this entire process unfair, unjust, unhuman, they even say, and quote, "it kills an otherwise constructive process."
What's their best defense as to why this is the most constructive process they're conducting? WALSH: Well, from their side of the table, what they will have said -- say, they've allowed these inspectors in. They've allowed the environmental sampling. They've provided records. They've been in negotiation with IAEA. They are moving towards adoption of the additional protocol, although they have not done know.
And historically, they have been a member in good standing. They've not been like Iraq, where you had a million U.N. Security Council resolutions against it. Or it's not like North Korea. This has been a country that traditionally has abided by its inspections requirements. So that would be its best defense at this point.
WHITFIELD: Do the Iranians have a good point that they're being singled out because President Bush has called them a member of the axis of evil and that they are neighbors to Iraq?
WALSH: Yes and no on that.
Yes, the U.S. is the one that's pressing this. In the negotiations that started last week on Monday and lasted all week, there were two camps. The U.S. was in one camp, pushing to have a harsher resolution, pushing to have this transferred to the Security Council.
Others, the Europeans were looking for this sort of interim arrangement, where we give them one more chance, we give them six weeks to clean things up and to address the outstanding issues.
But the difference here is that while the U.S. has been pushing and pushing hard on this, the Europeans, who have good relations with Iran, and the Russians, who have good relations with Iran, they are increasingly concerned about Iran's nuclear activity.
WHITFIELD: All right. Thanks very much. Jim Walsh from Boston. Good to see you.
WALSH: Thank you, Fredricka.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired September 13, 2003 - 12:35 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, ANCHOR: U.S. intelligence experts are puzzled by North Korea's apparent move to halt operations at its Pyongyang nuclear plant.
"The New York Times" reports officials are debating whether the shut down is due to a technical problem or perhaps is a goodwill gesture. The North restarted the plant in February but given what the U.S. feels is a small scale operation, it's not clear if the north could have re-processed enough spent fuel to make a new weapon by now.
The CIA says the North probably has one or two nuclear devices already in hand. The U.S. and U.N. will navigate tricky political ground with Iran in the coming weeks over its nuclear programs. U.N. nuclear experts are giving Iran a deadline of October 31 to prove its program is for peaceful purposes.
The Iranians walked out after the vote in Vienna yesterday. Iran hinted it may follow North Korea and pull out of the nuclear nonproliferation treaty.
The deadline sets up the possibility for Security Council involvement in November. And that could mean sanctions against Iran and perhaps, according to the Iranians, a U.S. military invasion.
Let's talk about all this with Jim Walsh, an international security fellow at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government. And he's with us from Boston.
Good to see you, Jim.
JIM WALSH, HARVARD UNIVERSITY: Good to see you, Fredricka.
WHITFIELD: All right, the deadline, October 31, what must be delivered by then?
WALSH: Well, there's a long laundry list of issues that Iran has to address in order to meet this deadline. They have to sign the additional protocol. That's the new strengthened set of inspections that the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, developed after the Gulf War.
This is the first time that I recall in the history of the IAEA where they are dictating to a country and saying, "You must sign this new safeguards agreement."
In addition to that, they have to provide more information about these centrifuges, these centrifuges that IAEA found with highly enriched uranium in. The highly enriched uranium is the material used to make a nuclear weapon.
They have to allow greater inspections, produce more records. There's a number of different steps they have to take.
WHITFIELD: All right. You touched on inspections, asking for greater inspections. Haven't there been some IAEA inspections in the past six months?
WALSH: There have been a series of visits and inspections, but IAEA, in its latest report, a report that was issued last week, indicated that while they know more information about the Iran program, there are many issues that are left unresolved.
And in fact, it says in today's announcement, or yesterday's announcement, that there are more questions now than there were six months ago, two months ago.
Part of their concern -- and this was really interesting in the announcement that they released yesterday -- that it appears as if there were adjustments or physical alterations made to the Kali (ph) electric plant, which would have reduced the ability of those inspections or, in this case, environmental sampling to have worked effectively. IAEA uses environmental sampling to sort of test the air, the water and the ground to see if there's radioactive material there.
WHITFIELD: So this environmental sampling indicates that something other than peaceful purposes, other than this nuclear power for electricity, is being used?
WALSH: We can't draw that conclusion yet, and IAEA was very specific in saying that they need more information.
First of all, IAEA were surprised to find that there were bits or traces of highly enriched uranium. The Iranian response to that was, "Well, this was trace material left over from the country that we imported the centrifuges from."
But it appears, at least in yesterday's declaration, that there's several discrepancies or changes in Iranian statements over time.
So IAEA is not concluding that Iran is making nuclear weapons; it's not concluding that it's violated the nuclear nonproliferation treaty. But it is saying, in order to answer those questions, it needs more information and thus the October deadline.
Let me hasten to add, Fredricka, the other big news here, is that it's called on Iran to cease its uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities. This is a landmark decision in the history of IAEA.
WHITFIELD: And in fact, this Iranian delegation is calling this entire process unfair, unjust, unhuman, they even say, and quote, "it kills an otherwise constructive process."
What's their best defense as to why this is the most constructive process they're conducting? WALSH: Well, from their side of the table, what they will have said -- say, they've allowed these inspectors in. They've allowed the environmental sampling. They've provided records. They've been in negotiation with IAEA. They are moving towards adoption of the additional protocol, although they have not done know.
And historically, they have been a member in good standing. They've not been like Iraq, where you had a million U.N. Security Council resolutions against it. Or it's not like North Korea. This has been a country that traditionally has abided by its inspections requirements. So that would be its best defense at this point.
WHITFIELD: Do the Iranians have a good point that they're being singled out because President Bush has called them a member of the axis of evil and that they are neighbors to Iraq?
WALSH: Yes and no on that.
Yes, the U.S. is the one that's pressing this. In the negotiations that started last week on Monday and lasted all week, there were two camps. The U.S. was in one camp, pushing to have a harsher resolution, pushing to have this transferred to the Security Council.
Others, the Europeans were looking for this sort of interim arrangement, where we give them one more chance, we give them six weeks to clean things up and to address the outstanding issues.
But the difference here is that while the U.S. has been pushing and pushing hard on this, the Europeans, who have good relations with Iran, and the Russians, who have good relations with Iran, they are increasingly concerned about Iran's nuclear activity.
WHITFIELD: All right. Thanks very much. Jim Walsh from Boston. Good to see you.
WALSH: Thank you, Fredricka.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
