Return to Transcripts main page
CNN Live Saturday
Middle East Tensions Seem To Have No End In Sight
Aired September 13, 2003 - 18:10 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Well, with Israelis saying Arafat now has to go, and some Palestinians saying Sharon has to go, the outcome of the Middle East standoff is anyone's guest. Well, we're seeking an educated guest, at the very least, tonight. We've asked Mamoun Fandy, senior fellow at the U.S. Institute for Peace to talk to us about the current situation. He joins us from Washington.
Mamoun, good to see you.
MAMOUN FANDY, U.S. INSTITUTE FOR PEACE: Good to see you, Carol.
LIN: The situation today, Yasser Arafat at his compound surrounded by supporters. Israel has said it is reserving the right to expel him. What is Israel going to do? What is likely to happen next?
FANDY: Well, I think this is another blunder that Sharon is doing. It's very similar to what he did during Al Aksa mosque (ph) a few years back when he outraged (ph) the Palestinians in terms of their sanctuary.
Right now, I think Arafat needed that boost from Sharon. Arafat's legitimacy was very low before this decision, and now Arafat is the undivided ruler of the Palestinians. He is the man who is totally in control right now.
Months before, Mahmoud Abbas was the alternative -- Abu Mazen was the alternative to Arafat, and many Palestinians supported him. But with this Israeli decision, people will rally around Arafat throughout the Arab world.
LIN: But what do you think is the true percentage of the total Palestinian population who still support Arafat as the leader of the Palestinian people?
FANDY: Well, in reality, I think this is a democracy trap. In reality, the Palestinians elected Arafat and they believe he is the symbol of their revolution, the symbol of their liberation, and so on and so forth. But they have always been ambivalent about him.
There are charges of corruption and cronyism and lots of things like that. So in many ways there's tremendous distrust in Arafat. But whenever the person attacking him is Sharon, they will always rally around Arafat. This is...
LIN: So here you have -- OK. So let me get you on that point, because there is a dynamic now on the ground, with the Palestinians themselves divided over what should happen next. The new prime minister making the same demands of needing to control the security forces. Yasser Arafat not willing to give up control.
FANDY: Well, Yasser Arafat is really the man in control. His men, in reality, are the men in control. The Americans don't want to deal with him; the Israelis don't want to deal with him. But the Arabs deal with him, the Europeans deal with him, the Palestinians deal with him.
So this complicates the whole issue. If Arafat goes, you're really looking at a civil war amongst the Palestinians, because those who will be on the side of the Americans and the Israelis, and the rest who are on the sides of the Arab causes and Yasser Arafat. This is a recipe for a civil war for the Palestinians, and the whole vision for a two-state solution, for a road map, all of this can go up in smoke.
LIN: All right. So by Israel's security cabinet then making this decision and making it public that they reserve the right to expel Arafat, how does that play into the dynamic? Is Israel then feeding the possibility of civil war amongst the Palestinians?
FANDY: Well, I think there's a real possibility. Now, given that decision is out in the open, I'm sure it has a psychological effect. Also, many people might try to live with the idea that Arafat should be expelled. But in reality, on the ground, I think it will be a recipe for disaster.
The Palestinians will go into civil war, and the unattended consequences of this decision could be very drastic not just for Israel and the Palestinians, but for the wider Middle East. That includes Iraq, it includes the issue of terrorism and bin Laden and al Qaeda and so on.
LIN: So what options does that leave then for Israel?
FANDY: Well, I think the Israelis -- well, this is the final battle between two old men, between Sharon and Arafat. They started it in 1982 in Lebanon. I think probably if Arafat goes Sharon might go as well via an election. So this is really a Palestinian-Israeli politics, and it has to reach a brink. The only thing is that the United States would step in and talk sense to Sharon and tell him that this is not a wise decision.
LIN: All right. We'll see what happens there. In the meantime, I want to touch on a completely different story.
Osama bin Laden heard -- his voice heard on a new tape this week. What do you make of that? Do you think he's still alive?
FANDY: I'm not convinced that he's still alive. I mean, if you look at the tape, Carol, you look at it with all the visuals and all the graphics and everything else, this is not produced in the allies of Kandahar or produced somewhere in Tora Bora. If you've seen the story of (UNINTELLIGIBLE) and all of that, and the verses from the Koran next to it, this is a studio production. It looks fake to me. LIN: It looks fake to you?
FANDY: Yes.
LIN: Really? So who then produced it, who released it, and whose voice is it then? I mean, the CIA has confirmed that they believe that that's Osama bin Laden's voice. They just can't state for sure when it was recorded.
FANDY: Well, the CIA and everybody else made mistakes a long time ago about Osama bin Laden. I think they are not the ultimate judge. Everybody in the region probably has reached a conclusion that Osama bin Laden is not there. There is no evidence that Osama bin Laden is with us.
We know that Ayman al-Zawahiri was in Iran. We know that number three (UNINTELLIGIBLE) was in Iran. But nobody has confirmed yet the idea that Osama bin Laden is alive.
But you have to take it into account that this is something that happened at a time when an Al-Jazeera reporter was being arrested in Spain and so on. And therefore, Al-Jazeera has to come up with something to attract the attention of world opinion.
LIN: All right. So you think the reporter, the Spain-based reporter, who is actually Syrian born and a Spanish naturalized citizen, he's still in custody this Tasir al-Luni (ph). Do you think there is some conspiracy then between Al-Jazeera and al Qaeda, that there is, in fact, a connection between the Arab network and the terrorist network?
FANDY: There has always been close relations between Al-Jazeera -- at least a very confirmed relationship between Al-Jazeera and the Muslim brotherhood. It's the man who handpicked most reporters of Al- Jazeera, Sheikh Kalidari (ph), who was the head of the Muslim brotherhood throughout. He's the man who picked Tasir al-Luni (ph), who is a Muslim brother from Syria, who left Syria in the '80s and went to Spain.
He picked other reporters throughout. So the relationship between Al-Jazeera and the Muslim brothers is very established and it's a watertight case. Now, Al-Jazeera and al Qaeda, I was told by some Al-Jazeera reporters themselves that they felt the reporting of al-Luni (ph) during the United States' war against the Taliban, that his reporting was not the reporting of a professional journalist, with some kind of relationship with his sources, but rather something closer than this.
LIN: All right. Well, he is in custody as we speak. Mamoun Fandy, good to see you. Thank you very much for joining us.
FANDY: Good to see you, Carol. Thanks.
LIN: Mamoun Fandy, a senior fellow with the U.S. Institute for Peace.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired September 13, 2003 - 18:10 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: Well, with Israelis saying Arafat now has to go, and some Palestinians saying Sharon has to go, the outcome of the Middle East standoff is anyone's guest. Well, we're seeking an educated guest, at the very least, tonight. We've asked Mamoun Fandy, senior fellow at the U.S. Institute for Peace to talk to us about the current situation. He joins us from Washington.
Mamoun, good to see you.
MAMOUN FANDY, U.S. INSTITUTE FOR PEACE: Good to see you, Carol.
LIN: The situation today, Yasser Arafat at his compound surrounded by supporters. Israel has said it is reserving the right to expel him. What is Israel going to do? What is likely to happen next?
FANDY: Well, I think this is another blunder that Sharon is doing. It's very similar to what he did during Al Aksa mosque (ph) a few years back when he outraged (ph) the Palestinians in terms of their sanctuary.
Right now, I think Arafat needed that boost from Sharon. Arafat's legitimacy was very low before this decision, and now Arafat is the undivided ruler of the Palestinians. He is the man who is totally in control right now.
Months before, Mahmoud Abbas was the alternative -- Abu Mazen was the alternative to Arafat, and many Palestinians supported him. But with this Israeli decision, people will rally around Arafat throughout the Arab world.
LIN: But what do you think is the true percentage of the total Palestinian population who still support Arafat as the leader of the Palestinian people?
FANDY: Well, in reality, I think this is a democracy trap. In reality, the Palestinians elected Arafat and they believe he is the symbol of their revolution, the symbol of their liberation, and so on and so forth. But they have always been ambivalent about him.
There are charges of corruption and cronyism and lots of things like that. So in many ways there's tremendous distrust in Arafat. But whenever the person attacking him is Sharon, they will always rally around Arafat. This is...
LIN: So here you have -- OK. So let me get you on that point, because there is a dynamic now on the ground, with the Palestinians themselves divided over what should happen next. The new prime minister making the same demands of needing to control the security forces. Yasser Arafat not willing to give up control.
FANDY: Well, Yasser Arafat is really the man in control. His men, in reality, are the men in control. The Americans don't want to deal with him; the Israelis don't want to deal with him. But the Arabs deal with him, the Europeans deal with him, the Palestinians deal with him.
So this complicates the whole issue. If Arafat goes, you're really looking at a civil war amongst the Palestinians, because those who will be on the side of the Americans and the Israelis, and the rest who are on the sides of the Arab causes and Yasser Arafat. This is a recipe for a civil war for the Palestinians, and the whole vision for a two-state solution, for a road map, all of this can go up in smoke.
LIN: All right. So by Israel's security cabinet then making this decision and making it public that they reserve the right to expel Arafat, how does that play into the dynamic? Is Israel then feeding the possibility of civil war amongst the Palestinians?
FANDY: Well, I think there's a real possibility. Now, given that decision is out in the open, I'm sure it has a psychological effect. Also, many people might try to live with the idea that Arafat should be expelled. But in reality, on the ground, I think it will be a recipe for disaster.
The Palestinians will go into civil war, and the unattended consequences of this decision could be very drastic not just for Israel and the Palestinians, but for the wider Middle East. That includes Iraq, it includes the issue of terrorism and bin Laden and al Qaeda and so on.
LIN: So what options does that leave then for Israel?
FANDY: Well, I think the Israelis -- well, this is the final battle between two old men, between Sharon and Arafat. They started it in 1982 in Lebanon. I think probably if Arafat goes Sharon might go as well via an election. So this is really a Palestinian-Israeli politics, and it has to reach a brink. The only thing is that the United States would step in and talk sense to Sharon and tell him that this is not a wise decision.
LIN: All right. We'll see what happens there. In the meantime, I want to touch on a completely different story.
Osama bin Laden heard -- his voice heard on a new tape this week. What do you make of that? Do you think he's still alive?
FANDY: I'm not convinced that he's still alive. I mean, if you look at the tape, Carol, you look at it with all the visuals and all the graphics and everything else, this is not produced in the allies of Kandahar or produced somewhere in Tora Bora. If you've seen the story of (UNINTELLIGIBLE) and all of that, and the verses from the Koran next to it, this is a studio production. It looks fake to me. LIN: It looks fake to you?
FANDY: Yes.
LIN: Really? So who then produced it, who released it, and whose voice is it then? I mean, the CIA has confirmed that they believe that that's Osama bin Laden's voice. They just can't state for sure when it was recorded.
FANDY: Well, the CIA and everybody else made mistakes a long time ago about Osama bin Laden. I think they are not the ultimate judge. Everybody in the region probably has reached a conclusion that Osama bin Laden is not there. There is no evidence that Osama bin Laden is with us.
We know that Ayman al-Zawahiri was in Iran. We know that number three (UNINTELLIGIBLE) was in Iran. But nobody has confirmed yet the idea that Osama bin Laden is alive.
But you have to take it into account that this is something that happened at a time when an Al-Jazeera reporter was being arrested in Spain and so on. And therefore, Al-Jazeera has to come up with something to attract the attention of world opinion.
LIN: All right. So you think the reporter, the Spain-based reporter, who is actually Syrian born and a Spanish naturalized citizen, he's still in custody this Tasir al-Luni (ph). Do you think there is some conspiracy then between Al-Jazeera and al Qaeda, that there is, in fact, a connection between the Arab network and the terrorist network?
FANDY: There has always been close relations between Al-Jazeera -- at least a very confirmed relationship between Al-Jazeera and the Muslim brotherhood. It's the man who handpicked most reporters of Al- Jazeera, Sheikh Kalidari (ph), who was the head of the Muslim brotherhood throughout. He's the man who picked Tasir al-Luni (ph), who is a Muslim brother from Syria, who left Syria in the '80s and went to Spain.
He picked other reporters throughout. So the relationship between Al-Jazeera and the Muslim brothers is very established and it's a watertight case. Now, Al-Jazeera and al Qaeda, I was told by some Al-Jazeera reporters themselves that they felt the reporting of al-Luni (ph) during the United States' war against the Taliban, that his reporting was not the reporting of a professional journalist, with some kind of relationship with his sources, but rather something closer than this.
LIN: All right. Well, he is in custody as we speak. Mamoun Fandy, good to see you. Thank you very much for joining us.
FANDY: Good to see you, Carol. Thanks.
LIN: Mamoun Fandy, a senior fellow with the U.S. Institute for Peace.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
