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CNN Live Saturday

Analysis of California Recall Election

Aired September 27, 2003 - 12:20   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


JUDY FORTIN, CNN ANCHOR: Ten days and counting in the California recall election. Governor Gray Davis challenges Arnold Schwarzenegger to a war of the words. The Davis offer to debate was rejected by Schwarzenegger's camp. The incumbent accuses the Republican of misleading voters and Davis attacks Schwarzenegger in this ad.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANNOUNCER: Why can't Schwarzenegger get his facts straight? He has no experience. Won't answer press questions. Won't debate unless he has the questions in advance and didn't even bother to vote in 13 of the last 21 elections.

Vote No on the recall.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FORTIN: With analysis of the pending election, we turn now to CNN political analyst and "Los Angeles Times" correspondent, Ron Brownstein.

Ron, thanks for joining us.

RON BROWNSTEIN, "LOS ANGELES TIMES": Hi.

FORTIN: He's in Washington, by the way.

Did anyone really expect that Arnold Schwarzenegger would say yes to a debate with Gray Davis?

BROWNSTEIN: Probably not, but the fact that he said no, certainly fits in with the advertising that Gray Davis has launched accusing him of ducking debates.

It's kind of striking. I think many people will be asking themselves why is Gray Davis going after Schwarzenegger when they're not even really on the ballot together. Gray Davis is in effect running against himself on the recall. Schwarzenegger is running on the replacement ballot.

But, in fact you see Davis very much wanting to personalize this choice. And they -- many of his aides have talked about this almost from the beginning, in part because they believe they will fair better if voters feel the alternatives are worse, and also because they think if they can get this down to a Davis-Schwarzenegger contest in the people's minds, the natural partisan balance of the state, which leans Democratic, will help them. FORTIN: Is that's what's happening, then, in the last ten days before the election? Is it a Davis versus Schwarzenegger race?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think that the Davis camp would like it to be that and the Schwarzenegger camp would like it to be that. I remain to be convinced, however, the voters -- we'll have to see whether the voters see it that way.

The fact that Davis is going after Schwarzenegger this hard at the end suggests, to me, that he feels he can't get to 50 percent, which is what he needs to avoid the recall, solely by changing voter perceptions of him. He has to get those last few points, which are the toughest, by convincing people that the alternative would be worse. Don't forget, Judy, that in his re-election only won about 47 percent of the vote, so to avoid the recall he has to do better at time when things are worse in the state and that is a very tall order.

FORTIN: Let's talk about Tom McClintock. What factor will he have, at this point, on Arnold Schwarzenegger's race? Is there any chance that McClintock will drop out at this late date?

BROWNSTEIN: There always is a chance, but McClintock has been very stubborn and also very consistent. Whenever they up the pressure on him, as at the California Republican convention, a couple weeks ago, or even this weekend, he strikes back at Schwarzenegger. I think they're much more likely to find a way to entice him out of the what race than to pressure him out of the race, perhaps by offering him some kind of position in a punitive Schwarzenegger administration.

What the Republicans are hoping is that by having so many big names, Darrell Issa, Simon, the state party convent -- state county chairman unifying around Schwarzenegger, they can marginalize McClintock even if he stays in the race. The problem is, he is narrow casting, he is speaking to a very slim, but passionately committed slice of the electorate and he is establishing a considerable bond with those conservatives.

FORTIN: Ron, if you wouldn't mind, get out your crystal ball and tell us what we're likely to see in the next 10 days as we lead up to the October 7 election. What will the candidates be doing?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, Schwarzenegger is going to be doing -- you know, barnstorming the state, he is trying to generate momentum and excitement. I think Davis has to keep up the pressure on Schwarzenegger. He's probably gone about as far as he can go with bringing in the big name Democrats, like Clinton and Gore. I'm sure there will be more, but I don't know how much more he's going to get out of that.

Very important for both sides, really, is what happens in the campaign by organized labor. Because, labor has not been in the polls as pro Davis, as you would expect, and Latinos aren't as pro Davis as you would expect. And organized labor in California is very heavily Latino and if that effort can begin to turn those numbers that may be Davis's best hope of survival, so the invisible campaign may be as important as anything you can. FORTIN: We'll see if it shows its face. "L.A. Times" correspondent, Ron Brownstein in Washington, thanks for your time on this Saturday.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired September 27, 2003 - 12:20   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JUDY FORTIN, CNN ANCHOR: Ten days and counting in the California recall election. Governor Gray Davis challenges Arnold Schwarzenegger to a war of the words. The Davis offer to debate was rejected by Schwarzenegger's camp. The incumbent accuses the Republican of misleading voters and Davis attacks Schwarzenegger in this ad.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANNOUNCER: Why can't Schwarzenegger get his facts straight? He has no experience. Won't answer press questions. Won't debate unless he has the questions in advance and didn't even bother to vote in 13 of the last 21 elections.

Vote No on the recall.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FORTIN: With analysis of the pending election, we turn now to CNN political analyst and "Los Angeles Times" correspondent, Ron Brownstein.

Ron, thanks for joining us.

RON BROWNSTEIN, "LOS ANGELES TIMES": Hi.

FORTIN: He's in Washington, by the way.

Did anyone really expect that Arnold Schwarzenegger would say yes to a debate with Gray Davis?

BROWNSTEIN: Probably not, but the fact that he said no, certainly fits in with the advertising that Gray Davis has launched accusing him of ducking debates.

It's kind of striking. I think many people will be asking themselves why is Gray Davis going after Schwarzenegger when they're not even really on the ballot together. Gray Davis is in effect running against himself on the recall. Schwarzenegger is running on the replacement ballot.

But, in fact you see Davis very much wanting to personalize this choice. And they -- many of his aides have talked about this almost from the beginning, in part because they believe they will fair better if voters feel the alternatives are worse, and also because they think if they can get this down to a Davis-Schwarzenegger contest in the people's minds, the natural partisan balance of the state, which leans Democratic, will help them. FORTIN: Is that's what's happening, then, in the last ten days before the election? Is it a Davis versus Schwarzenegger race?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think that the Davis camp would like it to be that and the Schwarzenegger camp would like it to be that. I remain to be convinced, however, the voters -- we'll have to see whether the voters see it that way.

The fact that Davis is going after Schwarzenegger this hard at the end suggests, to me, that he feels he can't get to 50 percent, which is what he needs to avoid the recall, solely by changing voter perceptions of him. He has to get those last few points, which are the toughest, by convincing people that the alternative would be worse. Don't forget, Judy, that in his re-election only won about 47 percent of the vote, so to avoid the recall he has to do better at time when things are worse in the state and that is a very tall order.

FORTIN: Let's talk about Tom McClintock. What factor will he have, at this point, on Arnold Schwarzenegger's race? Is there any chance that McClintock will drop out at this late date?

BROWNSTEIN: There always is a chance, but McClintock has been very stubborn and also very consistent. Whenever they up the pressure on him, as at the California Republican convention, a couple weeks ago, or even this weekend, he strikes back at Schwarzenegger. I think they're much more likely to find a way to entice him out of the what race than to pressure him out of the race, perhaps by offering him some kind of position in a punitive Schwarzenegger administration.

What the Republicans are hoping is that by having so many big names, Darrell Issa, Simon, the state party convent -- state county chairman unifying around Schwarzenegger, they can marginalize McClintock even if he stays in the race. The problem is, he is narrow casting, he is speaking to a very slim, but passionately committed slice of the electorate and he is establishing a considerable bond with those conservatives.

FORTIN: Ron, if you wouldn't mind, get out your crystal ball and tell us what we're likely to see in the next 10 days as we lead up to the October 7 election. What will the candidates be doing?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, Schwarzenegger is going to be doing -- you know, barnstorming the state, he is trying to generate momentum and excitement. I think Davis has to keep up the pressure on Schwarzenegger. He's probably gone about as far as he can go with bringing in the big name Democrats, like Clinton and Gore. I'm sure there will be more, but I don't know how much more he's going to get out of that.

Very important for both sides, really, is what happens in the campaign by organized labor. Because, labor has not been in the polls as pro Davis, as you would expect, and Latinos aren't as pro Davis as you would expect. And organized labor in California is very heavily Latino and if that effort can begin to turn those numbers that may be Davis's best hope of survival, so the invisible campaign may be as important as anything you can. FORTIN: We'll see if it shows its face. "L.A. Times" correspondent, Ron Brownstein in Washington, thanks for your time on this Saturday.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com