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CNN Live Saturday

Absantee Ballots Could Determine California Recall Election

Aired October 04, 2003 - 18:29   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: An all-out push to save his job. California Governor Gray Davis is crisscrossing his state by plane today. Top Democrats are with him, and they hope to persuade voters to let Davis stay in office.
The man leading the pack is also campaigning hard. Arnold Schwarzenegger is on his bus tour across California. He's fighting off allegations that he groped women and admired Adolph Hitler. CNN senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, comes back with us now.

Bill, what do you think about the absentee ballots and what the impact might be on the recall election?

BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, a couple of issues with the absentee vote. One is that they could be coming in very late. Because you'll remember that a court a few weeks ago said that they would postpone the election. And it took the court a week to decide to go ahead and have it.

Well, during that week, people stopped sending in their absentee ballots. What that means is a lot of these absentee votes could be coming in at the last minute, and those votes are not counted until after election night. What does it mean? It means that if this election turns out to be close -- and there's a lot of reason to suspect it might be -- then we could have days of counting those absentee ballots before we know the result.

We also know that a lot of people -- in fact, 1.6 million Californians -- voted before the stories broke in the "Los Angeles Times" and "The New York Times" about Schwarzenegger's past. So they cast their ballots without really having that information. Their ballots were already sent it.

California is one of a growing number of states that allows people to vote early simply for their own convenience. They don't have to have a reason. They can just mail in an absentee ballot because they don't want to go into the polls.

But what that means is they're casting their votes before the campaign ends. And a lot of them, you can be sure, are wondering, would they very much like to go back and change those votes.

LIN: And they can't. Right Bill?

SCHNEIDER: They cannot. It's interesting that today the "Oakland Tribune," a newspaper in northern California which had endorsed Arnold Schwarzenegger for governor, took back its endorsement. It said, we no longer endorse him because of this new information. My point is, that's exactly what those absentee ballot voters cannot do if they sent in their ballot already.

LIN: And statistically, Bill, the number of absentee ballots and the number of the likely voter turnout on Election Day, you're saying that these absentee ballots statistically could really swing this race?

SCHNEIDER: Oh, sure. 1.6 million were cast before Thursday. The total number of votes is expected to be somewhere between 8 and 9 million, so that's a big chunk of voters.

And even since last Thursday, a lot of absentee ballots are coming in at the last minute. They are coming in late because of that court-imposed delay, when things were uncertain, and those won't be counted until after Election Day. So there could be a lot of uncertainty.

LIN: All right. But it sure makes exciting coverage, doesn't it, Bill?

SCHNEIDER: It does indeed.

LIN: All right. Thanks so much.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




Election>


Aired October 4, 2003 - 18:29   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: An all-out push to save his job. California Governor Gray Davis is crisscrossing his state by plane today. Top Democrats are with him, and they hope to persuade voters to let Davis stay in office.
The man leading the pack is also campaigning hard. Arnold Schwarzenegger is on his bus tour across California. He's fighting off allegations that he groped women and admired Adolph Hitler. CNN senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, comes back with us now.

Bill, what do you think about the absentee ballots and what the impact might be on the recall election?

BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, a couple of issues with the absentee vote. One is that they could be coming in very late. Because you'll remember that a court a few weeks ago said that they would postpone the election. And it took the court a week to decide to go ahead and have it.

Well, during that week, people stopped sending in their absentee ballots. What that means is a lot of these absentee votes could be coming in at the last minute, and those votes are not counted until after election night. What does it mean? It means that if this election turns out to be close -- and there's a lot of reason to suspect it might be -- then we could have days of counting those absentee ballots before we know the result.

We also know that a lot of people -- in fact, 1.6 million Californians -- voted before the stories broke in the "Los Angeles Times" and "The New York Times" about Schwarzenegger's past. So they cast their ballots without really having that information. Their ballots were already sent it.

California is one of a growing number of states that allows people to vote early simply for their own convenience. They don't have to have a reason. They can just mail in an absentee ballot because they don't want to go into the polls.

But what that means is they're casting their votes before the campaign ends. And a lot of them, you can be sure, are wondering, would they very much like to go back and change those votes.

LIN: And they can't. Right Bill?

SCHNEIDER: They cannot. It's interesting that today the "Oakland Tribune," a newspaper in northern California which had endorsed Arnold Schwarzenegger for governor, took back its endorsement. It said, we no longer endorse him because of this new information. My point is, that's exactly what those absentee ballot voters cannot do if they sent in their ballot already.

LIN: And statistically, Bill, the number of absentee ballots and the number of the likely voter turnout on Election Day, you're saying that these absentee ballots statistically could really swing this race?

SCHNEIDER: Oh, sure. 1.6 million were cast before Thursday. The total number of votes is expected to be somewhere between 8 and 9 million, so that's a big chunk of voters.

And even since last Thursday, a lot of absentee ballots are coming in at the last minute. They are coming in late because of that court-imposed delay, when things were uncertain, and those won't be counted until after Election Day. So there could be a lot of uncertainty.

LIN: All right. But it sure makes exciting coverage, doesn't it, Bill?

SCHNEIDER: It does indeed.

LIN: All right. Thanks so much.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




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