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CNN Live Saturday

A Look At California Recall Political Landscape

Aired October 04, 2003 - 14:01   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


LINDA STOUFFER CNN ANCHOR: And we begin this hour with the candidates, the campaigning, and the controversy. It is the last weekend before the California recall election. Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger finds himself in the spotlight as he tries to deflect criticism over allegations about sexual harassment and admiration of Adolph Hitler.
CNN's Kelly Wallace is live from Fresno, California. She is following Schwarzenegger's bus tour -- hello, Kelly.

KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Linda. Well, the Schwarzenegger campaign is exuding confidence. Schwarzenegger's aides say they have seen an increase of two to three percentage points in support for Schwarzenegger ever since these allegations surfaced that he groped women and that he once said he spoke admiringly of Adolph Hitler. What we're also seeing, though, as well, is the campaign firing back.

Arnold Schwarzenegger was here a short time ago, along with his wife, journalist Maria Shriver, and during brief remarks, Schwarzenegger accused Governor Gray Davis and Democrats of engaging in "puke politics and a puke campaign." Earlier, Schwarzenegger's adviser had some very harsh words for the "Los Angeles Times," accusing the newspaper of engaging in last-minute, gotcha journalism, condemning a story in today's newspaper in which three additional women have come forward saying that Schwarzenegger groped them.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROB BUTZMAN, SCHWARZENEGGER CAMPAIGN: They're unfit to own a printing press! And we're not going to take it. The people of California are going to see through this.

They resent this type of gutter journalism. And Mr. Carroll should be ashamed that he would put in his own words in his paper today essentially a casting call for people to come forward with stories about Mr. Schwarzenegger, particularly if they're going to wait until moments before deadline to call us for a response.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WALLACE: So far, no comment yet from the "Los Angeles Times," but this move is not without its risks, because now you have the campaign adamantly rejecting some allegations and not rejecting others.

In another development, the Schwarzenegger team pointing reporters to a new story. A story in which an ex-trainer to Arnold Schwarzenegger said that as a teenager, Schwarzenegger tried to break up neo-Nazi rallies in Austria on at least two occasions. In an exclusive interview with The Associated Press, the ex-trainer is saying, "He was so outraged, so filled with rage against the Nazi regime, it's absurd. It's 100 percent wrong that he could have ever liked Hitler."

And Schwarzenegger's aides say now they want an apology from Governor Gray Davis, who had critical comments to make about Schwarzenegger's comments that he allegedly spoke admiringly of Adolph Hitler. The Schwarzenegger team saying, when you look at Schwarzenegger's life overall you can see -- only thing you can see is that he has nothing but disdain for the Nazi leader.

That's the latest from here. Back to you, Linda.

STOUFFER: Kelly Wallace, thank you.

And now to the governor. Governor Gray Davis is making a last stand to save his job. He is flying around California today making his case.

CNN's Candy Crowley is in Oakland for Davis' first stop of the day. Hello, Candy.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Hi. I flew up from Los Angeles this morning with Governor Gray Davis on his plane. A pretty upbeat crowd, I'll say, for the last polls that we saw, which, of course, showed that over 50 percent of Californians, in fact, favor this recall. They believe that they are getting some bounce out of the -- all of the problems with the Schwarzenegger campaign.

What they are doing now, though, is sticking to what is a pretty basic script for the final days of any campaign, and that is to go to where the party faithful are, to get them excited enough to get to the polls. The event that you see behind me, Arianna Huffington showing up to help the governor, along with Jesse Jackson, and some state -- some senators from the state, Dianne Feinstein, very popular figure here.

So he is gathering Democrats around him and going to Democratic strongholds. This is a union crowd. Right after this, he is going to go over and address a group of women.

So this is sort of a classic campaign move in the final days, which is to be where your base is, here in Oakland, also, a liberal territory, which is going on in a very unclassic moment. So the Schwarzenegger campaign has certainly changed the dynamic on the Gray side in that they seem very upbeat here. They believe the polling is going their way. I suspect we may have to wait until Tuesday to figure out who's right about this -- Linda.

STOUFFER: I suspect you're definitely right about that. Candy Crowley, thank you. Well, conventional wisdom suggests President Bush would receive a boost, at least from having a Republican in the California governor's mansion. Is that really the case, though? We get insight from senior political analyst Bill Schneider.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST (voice-over): Suppose Arnold Schwarzenegger gets elected governor of California. Would that be a good sign or a bad sign for President Bush's re-election prospects? Well, duh! Schwarzenegger's a Republican. California is a Democratic state.

End of discussion? Not quite. Because Schwarzenegger's not running as a partisan Republican.

ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: It doesn't matter if you are a Democrat or a Republican, if you're young or old. What the racial thing is nothing matters to me.

SCHNEIDER: He's running as the candidate of change.

SCHWARZENEGGER: It really comes down to this: if you're happy with the way things are, then keep your current leaders.

SCHNEIDER: Sound familiar?

RONALD REAGAN, FMR. PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Are you better off than you were four years ago?

SCHNEIDER: Whenever the economy goes sour, voters look for a candidate who offers change. And the candidate who can make the most convincing case for change is usually an outsider. In a presidential race, someone from outside of Washington, like Ronald Reagan in 1980 or Bill Clinton in 1992.

WILLIAM JEFFERSON CLINTON, FMR. PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: George Bush, if you won't use your power to help America, step aside, I will!

SCHNEIDER: Arnold Schwarzenegger is a total outsider; that's his appeal and what makes him different from Gray Davis, Cruz Bustamante, and McClintock, all state capital insiders.

SCHWARZENEGGER: I will go to Sacramento and I will clean House.

SCHNEIDER: Electing Schwarzenegger would be a signal: times are tough, voters want change, outsiders are in, which may be why two Washington outsiders in the Democratic presidential race are attracting the most interest. A former governor of Vermont...

HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: My whole tactic is different than the Washington politicians.

SCHNEIDER: ... and a retired general with no electoral experience. WESLEY CLARK (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think the American people are really -- they're really embarrassed by the leadership of this administration.

SCHNEIDER: Meaning the Bush administration. Clark and Dean are campaigning for change in Washington, but against change in California, because Gray Davis is a fellow Democrat. That makes things different. Doesn't it?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SCHNEIDER: Governor Davis and President Bush are in different parties, but they're selling the same thing, continuity, which is why Arnold Schwarzenegger's message of change threatens them both -- Linda.

STOUFFER: And, Bill, we just got in something pretty interesting. The "Oakland Tribune" is saying they now are retracting their support of Arnold Schwarzenegger, but at this point they're not going to endorse another candidate. And at this point, we're still trying to figure out how all of these allegations against Schwarzenegger this week may play out. What are your thoughts on the impact of them?

SCHNEIDER: Well, Linda, first of all, we really have no factual information. All the polls that have been cited, showing Schwarzenegger firmly in the lead, and moving up with a lot of momentum, were taken before the stories were published by the "Los Angeles Times."

Now, that's precisely why the matter is so confused. A lot of voters are suspicious. They say those stories were published just a few days before. Many of thee incidents happen decades ago. Why didn't they come forward early?

Well, the answer is a lot of them were unwilling until the paper contacted them. They were frightened. They felt that they couldn't contend with a big, powerful, rich organization like Arnold Schwarzenegger. Nevertheless, a lot of voters a suspicious; they see immediate conspiracy; they think this is politics as usual. So the impact, frankly, is not clear and may not be until Election Day.

STOUFFER: And some of the voters whose votes are most coveted right now are those from women, moderate Republican women, undecided women. How crucial is the women's vote?

SCHNEIDER: Women have been crucial, they have driven this entire campaign, Linda. At first, when Schwarzenegger first declared, women were reluctant to support him, and they were supporting other candidates, particularly the lieutenant governor, the Democrat, Cruz Bustamante. But then after the debate last month, Schwarzenegger reassured women that he seemed to know what he was talking about.

They gave up on Gray Davis. No poll has ever shown Davis surviving his recall effort. And women started supporting Arnold Schwarzenegger. They made him the front-runner. So the big question now is, how will women respond to these accusations and to Schwarzenegger's acknowledgement of past bad behavior? Will they be willing to forget or forgive, and whom will they go to? Those moderate Republican women have another Republican candidate, a conservative, Tom McClintock. If they go him, then that could elect the Democrat, Cruz Bustamante. Nobody really knows.

STOUFFER: And, Bill, I don't know quite how to ask this, but this is an election in California, a very crazy election in California. Do these sorts of allegations about his past behavior towards women play differently in California somehow than they would in another part of country?

SCHNEIDER: Well, I think Californians may be a little bit more used to them, because they are a little bit more soaked in the celebrity culture. Schwarzenegger is a local celebrity, as well as a world celebrity. He's a movie star.

These sorts of things fill the airwaves in California all the time. Remember, this was the site for over a year of the O.J. Simpson trial, which transfixed California more than any other state. So I think, here in California, these kinds of accusations, these kinds of stories, people say, that's just what we hear on the news all the time. We're used to that. And they may be willing to discount them more than voters in other states.

STOUFFER: And so much could happen between now and Tuesday. Senior political analyst Bill Schneider, good to hear from you. Thank you.

SCHNEIDER: Surely.

STOUFFER: Larry King gets his chance to question Governor Gray Davis. He will appear on tomorrow's edition of "LARRY KING LIVE." That's at 9:00 p.m. Eastern, only right here on CNN.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired October 4, 2003 - 14:01   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LINDA STOUFFER CNN ANCHOR: And we begin this hour with the candidates, the campaigning, and the controversy. It is the last weekend before the California recall election. Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger finds himself in the spotlight as he tries to deflect criticism over allegations about sexual harassment and admiration of Adolph Hitler.
CNN's Kelly Wallace is live from Fresno, California. She is following Schwarzenegger's bus tour -- hello, Kelly.

KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hello, Linda. Well, the Schwarzenegger campaign is exuding confidence. Schwarzenegger's aides say they have seen an increase of two to three percentage points in support for Schwarzenegger ever since these allegations surfaced that he groped women and that he once said he spoke admiringly of Adolph Hitler. What we're also seeing, though, as well, is the campaign firing back.

Arnold Schwarzenegger was here a short time ago, along with his wife, journalist Maria Shriver, and during brief remarks, Schwarzenegger accused Governor Gray Davis and Democrats of engaging in "puke politics and a puke campaign." Earlier, Schwarzenegger's adviser had some very harsh words for the "Los Angeles Times," accusing the newspaper of engaging in last-minute, gotcha journalism, condemning a story in today's newspaper in which three additional women have come forward saying that Schwarzenegger groped them.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROB BUTZMAN, SCHWARZENEGGER CAMPAIGN: They're unfit to own a printing press! And we're not going to take it. The people of California are going to see through this.

They resent this type of gutter journalism. And Mr. Carroll should be ashamed that he would put in his own words in his paper today essentially a casting call for people to come forward with stories about Mr. Schwarzenegger, particularly if they're going to wait until moments before deadline to call us for a response.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WALLACE: So far, no comment yet from the "Los Angeles Times," but this move is not without its risks, because now you have the campaign adamantly rejecting some allegations and not rejecting others.

In another development, the Schwarzenegger team pointing reporters to a new story. A story in which an ex-trainer to Arnold Schwarzenegger said that as a teenager, Schwarzenegger tried to break up neo-Nazi rallies in Austria on at least two occasions. In an exclusive interview with The Associated Press, the ex-trainer is saying, "He was so outraged, so filled with rage against the Nazi regime, it's absurd. It's 100 percent wrong that he could have ever liked Hitler."

And Schwarzenegger's aides say now they want an apology from Governor Gray Davis, who had critical comments to make about Schwarzenegger's comments that he allegedly spoke admiringly of Adolph Hitler. The Schwarzenegger team saying, when you look at Schwarzenegger's life overall you can see -- only thing you can see is that he has nothing but disdain for the Nazi leader.

That's the latest from here. Back to you, Linda.

STOUFFER: Kelly Wallace, thank you.

And now to the governor. Governor Gray Davis is making a last stand to save his job. He is flying around California today making his case.

CNN's Candy Crowley is in Oakland for Davis' first stop of the day. Hello, Candy.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Hi. I flew up from Los Angeles this morning with Governor Gray Davis on his plane. A pretty upbeat crowd, I'll say, for the last polls that we saw, which, of course, showed that over 50 percent of Californians, in fact, favor this recall. They believe that they are getting some bounce out of the -- all of the problems with the Schwarzenegger campaign.

What they are doing now, though, is sticking to what is a pretty basic script for the final days of any campaign, and that is to go to where the party faithful are, to get them excited enough to get to the polls. The event that you see behind me, Arianna Huffington showing up to help the governor, along with Jesse Jackson, and some state -- some senators from the state, Dianne Feinstein, very popular figure here.

So he is gathering Democrats around him and going to Democratic strongholds. This is a union crowd. Right after this, he is going to go over and address a group of women.

So this is sort of a classic campaign move in the final days, which is to be where your base is, here in Oakland, also, a liberal territory, which is going on in a very unclassic moment. So the Schwarzenegger campaign has certainly changed the dynamic on the Gray side in that they seem very upbeat here. They believe the polling is going their way. I suspect we may have to wait until Tuesday to figure out who's right about this -- Linda.

STOUFFER: I suspect you're definitely right about that. Candy Crowley, thank you. Well, conventional wisdom suggests President Bush would receive a boost, at least from having a Republican in the California governor's mansion. Is that really the case, though? We get insight from senior political analyst Bill Schneider.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST (voice-over): Suppose Arnold Schwarzenegger gets elected governor of California. Would that be a good sign or a bad sign for President Bush's re-election prospects? Well, duh! Schwarzenegger's a Republican. California is a Democratic state.

End of discussion? Not quite. Because Schwarzenegger's not running as a partisan Republican.

ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: It doesn't matter if you are a Democrat or a Republican, if you're young or old. What the racial thing is nothing matters to me.

SCHNEIDER: He's running as the candidate of change.

SCHWARZENEGGER: It really comes down to this: if you're happy with the way things are, then keep your current leaders.

SCHNEIDER: Sound familiar?

RONALD REAGAN, FMR. PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Are you better off than you were four years ago?

SCHNEIDER: Whenever the economy goes sour, voters look for a candidate who offers change. And the candidate who can make the most convincing case for change is usually an outsider. In a presidential race, someone from outside of Washington, like Ronald Reagan in 1980 or Bill Clinton in 1992.

WILLIAM JEFFERSON CLINTON, FMR. PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: George Bush, if you won't use your power to help America, step aside, I will!

SCHNEIDER: Arnold Schwarzenegger is a total outsider; that's his appeal and what makes him different from Gray Davis, Cruz Bustamante, and McClintock, all state capital insiders.

SCHWARZENEGGER: I will go to Sacramento and I will clean House.

SCHNEIDER: Electing Schwarzenegger would be a signal: times are tough, voters want change, outsiders are in, which may be why two Washington outsiders in the Democratic presidential race are attracting the most interest. A former governor of Vermont...

HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: My whole tactic is different than the Washington politicians.

SCHNEIDER: ... and a retired general with no electoral experience. WESLEY CLARK (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think the American people are really -- they're really embarrassed by the leadership of this administration.

SCHNEIDER: Meaning the Bush administration. Clark and Dean are campaigning for change in Washington, but against change in California, because Gray Davis is a fellow Democrat. That makes things different. Doesn't it?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SCHNEIDER: Governor Davis and President Bush are in different parties, but they're selling the same thing, continuity, which is why Arnold Schwarzenegger's message of change threatens them both -- Linda.

STOUFFER: And, Bill, we just got in something pretty interesting. The "Oakland Tribune" is saying they now are retracting their support of Arnold Schwarzenegger, but at this point they're not going to endorse another candidate. And at this point, we're still trying to figure out how all of these allegations against Schwarzenegger this week may play out. What are your thoughts on the impact of them?

SCHNEIDER: Well, Linda, first of all, we really have no factual information. All the polls that have been cited, showing Schwarzenegger firmly in the lead, and moving up with a lot of momentum, were taken before the stories were published by the "Los Angeles Times."

Now, that's precisely why the matter is so confused. A lot of voters are suspicious. They say those stories were published just a few days before. Many of thee incidents happen decades ago. Why didn't they come forward early?

Well, the answer is a lot of them were unwilling until the paper contacted them. They were frightened. They felt that they couldn't contend with a big, powerful, rich organization like Arnold Schwarzenegger. Nevertheless, a lot of voters a suspicious; they see immediate conspiracy; they think this is politics as usual. So the impact, frankly, is not clear and may not be until Election Day.

STOUFFER: And some of the voters whose votes are most coveted right now are those from women, moderate Republican women, undecided women. How crucial is the women's vote?

SCHNEIDER: Women have been crucial, they have driven this entire campaign, Linda. At first, when Schwarzenegger first declared, women were reluctant to support him, and they were supporting other candidates, particularly the lieutenant governor, the Democrat, Cruz Bustamante. But then after the debate last month, Schwarzenegger reassured women that he seemed to know what he was talking about.

They gave up on Gray Davis. No poll has ever shown Davis surviving his recall effort. And women started supporting Arnold Schwarzenegger. They made him the front-runner. So the big question now is, how will women respond to these accusations and to Schwarzenegger's acknowledgement of past bad behavior? Will they be willing to forget or forgive, and whom will they go to? Those moderate Republican women have another Republican candidate, a conservative, Tom McClintock. If they go him, then that could elect the Democrat, Cruz Bustamante. Nobody really knows.

STOUFFER: And, Bill, I don't know quite how to ask this, but this is an election in California, a very crazy election in California. Do these sorts of allegations about his past behavior towards women play differently in California somehow than they would in another part of country?

SCHNEIDER: Well, I think Californians may be a little bit more used to them, because they are a little bit more soaked in the celebrity culture. Schwarzenegger is a local celebrity, as well as a world celebrity. He's a movie star.

These sorts of things fill the airwaves in California all the time. Remember, this was the site for over a year of the O.J. Simpson trial, which transfixed California more than any other state. So I think, here in California, these kinds of accusations, these kinds of stories, people say, that's just what we hear on the news all the time. We're used to that. And they may be willing to discount them more than voters in other states.

STOUFFER: And so much could happen between now and Tuesday. Senior political analyst Bill Schneider, good to hear from you. Thank you.

SCHNEIDER: Surely.

STOUFFER: Larry King gets his chance to question Governor Gray Davis. He will appear on tomorrow's edition of "LARRY KING LIVE." That's at 9:00 p.m. Eastern, only right here on CNN.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com