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CNN Live Saturday

Focus Of Post-War Iraq Shifts To Finding Insurgents

Aired November 29, 2003 - 12:17   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


KELLY WALLACE, CNN ANCHOR: There has been a subtle shift, in recent weeks, from the original purpose of the Iraq war, finding weapons of mass destruction, to finding insurgents. Our guests now, can help us with that topic. Jim Walsh is an expert on international security at Harvard University. His focus is weapons of mass destruction and terrorism, and he joins us now in Boston.
Mr. Walsh, thank you for joining us, today.

JIM WALSH, HARVARD UNIVERSITY : Thank you, Kelly. Happy to be here.

WALLACE: Good to have you here. First question, where do things stand when it comes to the hunt for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?

WALSH: Well, I'm afraid the answer is it's at a standstill. We know more today than we knew a month ago or two months ago. In fact, in preparation for this I went back and took a look at the newspapers in November a year ago. And I'm -- and at this point a year ago, the papers were filled with news about weapons of mass destruction. The U.N. had just passed a resolution, 1441, there were inspectors on the ground looking, hunting for those weapons and now, there's very little talk about it because, frankly, we're not finding anything.

WALLACE: So, what accounts for their shift? That they're not finding anything or that the U.S. forces are encountering something else, insurgents?

WALSH: Well Kelly, I think it's both those things exactly. I think we're -- it's to the extent they're drawing resources, personnel, translators, intelligence officials, away from the hunt for weapons of mass destruction and their putting them on trying to fight the insurgency, that's first because the insurgency is the immediate problem. There are American soldiers dying everyday and that's what they want to deal with, that's the fire they're trying to put out. But secondly, I think the reason why they're making that shift, is they've probably come to a conclusion that they're not going to find anything in the way of significant weapons of mass destruction. I think that's the only way you can justify it. You'll remember that President Bush had said earlier, we want to keep those weapons from mass destruction falling into other hands, into the hands of Syrians or into the hands of terrorists, and so they must have concluded they're not there and that's why they're shifting those resources over.

WALLACE: So, is your sense, Mr. Walsh, that the U.S. forces will never really find any weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?

WALSH: Well, I think that's the sort of hidden story behind the Kay report. You'll remember that David Kay came to congress over a month ago and gave his interim report. We're expecting a final report at some point. But, I think the bottom line of that report was that there was no robust active nuclear or other WMD program on the eve of the war, that Iraq did not pose an imminent threat with weapons of mass destruction. They were interested, they were trying to keep some of the scientists and some of the components around, maybe to reconstitute a program later on, but that they didn't have anything that they could find, and my guess is that conclusion is not going to change.

WALLACE: And, what's your sense of how the current situation on the ground, the troops having to focus on these insurgents, what impact is that having on any search that might still exist for weapons of mass destruction?

WALSH: Well, I think it probably does hurt the hunt for WMD somewhat, in that, my guess is that some of those intelligence resources and some of those translators, people who would be translating documents, for example, about the nuclear program or other programs, they're being shifted over, but that's understandable. What isn't understandable to me, is that the -- we've sort of slowed down on the hunt for WMD, we've still not letting UNMOVIC or IAEA, those are the two international organizations have been in Iraq before hunting for weapons, we still haven't let them back in to continue the hunt. So, we're not letting folks in who could help us with this hunt. And then just this week, we had an incident where there was radioactive cobalt, that's a material you would use in a dirty bomb, not nuclear bomb, it was found that villagers and other looters had gotten in and take -- walked off with stores of that. We need IAEA, we need all the help we can get to make sure those facilitates are secure so that sort of thing doesn't happen in the future.

WALLACE: And, just looking finally to the insurgents and the U.S. troops and others are trying to battle against this insurgency. What's your sense? Does this appear to be a coordinated effort on the part of these militants or insurgents or do you see it sort of scattered throughout the country?

WALSH: Well my -- I'm sorry. My guess is that it's a combination of the two. You probably have some folks who are operating independently, Ansar al-Islam may be operating independently of Ba'athists, for example, but there are clearly evidence of coordinated attacks, and I say that because the number of attacks was increasing and their level of sophistication was increasing, and those two indicators seem to me suggest that there was coordination on the part of at least some of these folks. But, it's important to remember, this is a mixed bag, here. We have criminals, we have ex- Ba'athists, we have -- may have some foreign insurgents, so it's a group of different actors, who -- some of whom are coordinating and some who are not.

WALLACE: Jim Walsh from Harvard University. Thank you so much for coming in, specially this holiday weekend. We very much appreciate it.

WALSH: Thank you, Kelly and a belated happy Thanksgiving.

WALLACE: To you as well.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired November 29, 2003 - 12:17   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KELLY WALLACE, CNN ANCHOR: There has been a subtle shift, in recent weeks, from the original purpose of the Iraq war, finding weapons of mass destruction, to finding insurgents. Our guests now, can help us with that topic. Jim Walsh is an expert on international security at Harvard University. His focus is weapons of mass destruction and terrorism, and he joins us now in Boston.
Mr. Walsh, thank you for joining us, today.

JIM WALSH, HARVARD UNIVERSITY : Thank you, Kelly. Happy to be here.

WALLACE: Good to have you here. First question, where do things stand when it comes to the hunt for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?

WALSH: Well, I'm afraid the answer is it's at a standstill. We know more today than we knew a month ago or two months ago. In fact, in preparation for this I went back and took a look at the newspapers in November a year ago. And I'm -- and at this point a year ago, the papers were filled with news about weapons of mass destruction. The U.N. had just passed a resolution, 1441, there were inspectors on the ground looking, hunting for those weapons and now, there's very little talk about it because, frankly, we're not finding anything.

WALLACE: So, what accounts for their shift? That they're not finding anything or that the U.S. forces are encountering something else, insurgents?

WALSH: Well Kelly, I think it's both those things exactly. I think we're -- it's to the extent they're drawing resources, personnel, translators, intelligence officials, away from the hunt for weapons of mass destruction and their putting them on trying to fight the insurgency, that's first because the insurgency is the immediate problem. There are American soldiers dying everyday and that's what they want to deal with, that's the fire they're trying to put out. But secondly, I think the reason why they're making that shift, is they've probably come to a conclusion that they're not going to find anything in the way of significant weapons of mass destruction. I think that's the only way you can justify it. You'll remember that President Bush had said earlier, we want to keep those weapons from mass destruction falling into other hands, into the hands of Syrians or into the hands of terrorists, and so they must have concluded they're not there and that's why they're shifting those resources over.

WALLACE: So, is your sense, Mr. Walsh, that the U.S. forces will never really find any weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?

WALSH: Well, I think that's the sort of hidden story behind the Kay report. You'll remember that David Kay came to congress over a month ago and gave his interim report. We're expecting a final report at some point. But, I think the bottom line of that report was that there was no robust active nuclear or other WMD program on the eve of the war, that Iraq did not pose an imminent threat with weapons of mass destruction. They were interested, they were trying to keep some of the scientists and some of the components around, maybe to reconstitute a program later on, but that they didn't have anything that they could find, and my guess is that conclusion is not going to change.

WALLACE: And, what's your sense of how the current situation on the ground, the troops having to focus on these insurgents, what impact is that having on any search that might still exist for weapons of mass destruction?

WALSH: Well, I think it probably does hurt the hunt for WMD somewhat, in that, my guess is that some of those intelligence resources and some of those translators, people who would be translating documents, for example, about the nuclear program or other programs, they're being shifted over, but that's understandable. What isn't understandable to me, is that the -- we've sort of slowed down on the hunt for WMD, we've still not letting UNMOVIC or IAEA, those are the two international organizations have been in Iraq before hunting for weapons, we still haven't let them back in to continue the hunt. So, we're not letting folks in who could help us with this hunt. And then just this week, we had an incident where there was radioactive cobalt, that's a material you would use in a dirty bomb, not nuclear bomb, it was found that villagers and other looters had gotten in and take -- walked off with stores of that. We need IAEA, we need all the help we can get to make sure those facilitates are secure so that sort of thing doesn't happen in the future.

WALLACE: And, just looking finally to the insurgents and the U.S. troops and others are trying to battle against this insurgency. What's your sense? Does this appear to be a coordinated effort on the part of these militants or insurgents or do you see it sort of scattered throughout the country?

WALSH: Well my -- I'm sorry. My guess is that it's a combination of the two. You probably have some folks who are operating independently, Ansar al-Islam may be operating independently of Ba'athists, for example, but there are clearly evidence of coordinated attacks, and I say that because the number of attacks was increasing and their level of sophistication was increasing, and those two indicators seem to me suggest that there was coordination on the part of at least some of these folks. But, it's important to remember, this is a mixed bag, here. We have criminals, we have ex- Ba'athists, we have -- may have some foreign insurgents, so it's a group of different actors, who -- some of whom are coordinating and some who are not.

WALLACE: Jim Walsh from Harvard University. Thank you so much for coming in, specially this holiday weekend. We very much appreciate it.

WALSH: Thank you, Kelly and a belated happy Thanksgiving.

WALLACE: To you as well.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com