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CNN Live Saturday
Interview with Fredricka Whitfield
Aired January 03, 2004 - 12:29 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Well, ponder these numbers:
Howard Dean raised $40 million in 2003. President Bush's total is three times that amount. And keep in mind he has no primary competition.
Let's talk to a couple of old political hands about the state of the race for the White House.
David Johnson is a Republican strategist. He joins me here in Atlanta.
And in West Babylon, New York, Democratic strategist Robert Zimmerman.
Welcome to both of you gentlemen.
DAVID JOHNSON, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Thank you.
ROBERT ZIMMERMAN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Thank you. Good to be with you.
WHTIFIELD: All right.
So the latest CNN/"TIME" magazine polls shows that, of the Democratic field, Howard Dean way out in front with 22 percent. And then, in a head-to-to race -- if he were indeed the nominee -- against Bush, it shows that Bush would win by 51 percent, a very small margin.
Robert, you don't buy this poll. Why?
ZIMMERMAN: Well, I think it's important to put the poll in perspective realistically. Obviously, it's good news for Governor Dean. It reflects the fact that General Clark is beginning to build a constituency. But if national polls for the nomination were indicative of who the nominee would be, then Joe Lieberman would be the frontrunner now and not Howard Dean.
The reality is, national polls don't offer very much in terms of the way of predicting the outcome. Iowa is going to be very, very critical in terms of setting the stage, as will be -- as New Hampshire will be -- in terms of setting the agenda for the rest of these primaries.
WHITFIELD: And David, how do you see it? While Howard Dean is unmistakably the front-runner of the Democratic field, there are some critics who say he really doesn't have what it takes in order to beat Bush in the end.
JOHNSON: Oh, I agree with that entirely. Howard Dean is probably going to be the weakest general election candidate.
He's running a primary campaign to get the Democratic nomination, and he's going to the extreme left, very much like George McGovern did in 1972. And what we're seeing, too, is his fellow Democrats are attacking him relentlessly and the worst attacks are coming not from Republicans, but from his fellow Democrats. And...
WHITFIELD: And how dangerous is that -- that there is this kind of Democratic infighting? People are starting to forget what the whole purpose of this race is.
JOHNSON: It's incredibly dangerous. A lot of people might not be tuning in right now to some of those statements that's Dean's been making and some of the counter-statements his opponent are making. But believe -- you can believe this: Republicans are. And they will use those attacks in campaign commercials.
ZIMMERMAN: I'm afraid you're working from the talking points, though, from the '92 Bush re-election campaign. You know what the results was in that race against Bill Clinton.
I would careful not to declare mission accomplished just yet.
JOHNSON: Oh, I'm not. But the difference is...
ZIMMERMAN: I think it's very, very important to note -- it's very important to note that the polls show how very tight this race is amongst all the major Democratic candidates.
JOHNSON: It is.
ZIMMERMAN: In 1992, Bill Clinton was in third place the week he became the nominee and went on to win. And, of course, Al Gore, a year out, was 21 points behind George W. Bush and came back to win the popular vote.
(CROSSTALK)
WHITFIELD: But Robert, don't you find it interesting, however, though, this infighting -- you know, the Democrats are getting an awful lot of ink about that. Meantime, President Bush is getting ink about the economy; he's talking about the ongoing wars; he's talking about assistance to Iran, and he's not talking really about the Democratic field.
JOHNSON: That's completely right. And the other thing is, too, in 1992, Bill Clinton had a national message. Additionally, his fellow Democrats like Tom Harkin and Bob Kerry were not piling on the way that we're seeing these Democrats pile on Howard Dean. And that's a major difference. ZIMMERMAN: Well, we have never seen anything the way we've seen George W. Bush pile on with John McCain. And we saw the Republican Party pull together there.
I think it's important to note that while we have the Democratic candidates debating the issues amongst themselves -- and the debate is intense -- that's the nature of a democratic primary process.
WHITIFIELD: All right.
ZIMMERMAN: You're going to see the party pull together, be -- and I think what's indicative of that is the fact that we see our major candidates all within six or seven or eight points of beating George W. Bush a year out. It shows that the American public is interested in listening to alternative ideas. And with an administration that's given us a record number of citizens without health insurance; an administration that's given us a record number of Americans facing bankruptcy ...
WHITIFIELD: OK.
ZIMMERMAN: ...and also with the foreign policy, that leaves a -- that is really isolated America, this country is prepared to hear an alternative.
WHITIFIELD: All right. Well, Robert and David, we haven't talked much about Wesley Clark and he is believed to be perhaps possibly the come-from-behind kid.
JOHNSON: Right.
WHITIFELD: I mean, he remarkably has earned $11 million in just three months. And that, along with the $2.5 million in federal matching funds.
So David, do you see that he is indeed a pretty serious contender, that he's been able to bring in some pretty impressive numbers in a short amount of time? And it could translate into votes, right?
JOHNSON: Definitely. And he's going to be the alternative to Howard Dean, I believe, as this process goes forward. I think he'll actually overtake John Kerry in New Hampshire and he'll be posed -- poised to go into the South.
The other thing that I really would not be surprised at, before this primary process is over, is that either Bill or Hillary Clinton, either officially or very unofficially endorse Wesley Clark to make him the alternative candidate to Howard Dean and to try to propel him to the nomination.
WHITFIELD: Well, Robert?
ZIMMERMAN: You know, one of the great strengths of -- one of the great strengths of the Democratic primary process is that we're a party that runs from the grassroots up, not from the top down. So endorsements are not going to dictate who the nominee is.
What's interesting to note when you look at Iowa -- which is hard to poll because it's a caucus state. And therefore, it's very organization-intensive -- is that, realistically you've got a tight three-way race for first place, really between Dick Gephardt, John Kerry and Howard Dean.
This is now a race about expectations. And if Dean does not do as well as he is expected to do in Iowa, then clearly New Hampshire sets the stage for an interesting showdown between John Kerry and Howard Dean.
So before we start looking at what's going to happen in the third or fourth or fifth primary, we first have to look at how the first two primaries play out.
(CROSSTALK)
WHITIFELD: We're running out of time, though. But the caucus is on the 19th. New Hampshire 27th primary.
Thanks very much, gentlemen, David Johnson and Robert Zimmerman, for both of you joining us.
ZIMMERMAN: Happy new year.
WHITIFIELD: Happy New Year.
Well, CNN is your campaign headquarters throughout this election year and Judy Woodruff hosts the debut of "INSIDE POLITICS" for Sunday. That's tomorrow at 10 a.m. Eastern Time.
The Democratic candidates will face off in another presidential debate. That's tomorrow afternoon in Iowa. CNN will carry it live at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired January 3, 2004 - 12:29 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Well, ponder these numbers:
Howard Dean raised $40 million in 2003. President Bush's total is three times that amount. And keep in mind he has no primary competition.
Let's talk to a couple of old political hands about the state of the race for the White House.
David Johnson is a Republican strategist. He joins me here in Atlanta.
And in West Babylon, New York, Democratic strategist Robert Zimmerman.
Welcome to both of you gentlemen.
DAVID JOHNSON, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Thank you.
ROBERT ZIMMERMAN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Thank you. Good to be with you.
WHTIFIELD: All right.
So the latest CNN/"TIME" magazine polls shows that, of the Democratic field, Howard Dean way out in front with 22 percent. And then, in a head-to-to race -- if he were indeed the nominee -- against Bush, it shows that Bush would win by 51 percent, a very small margin.
Robert, you don't buy this poll. Why?
ZIMMERMAN: Well, I think it's important to put the poll in perspective realistically. Obviously, it's good news for Governor Dean. It reflects the fact that General Clark is beginning to build a constituency. But if national polls for the nomination were indicative of who the nominee would be, then Joe Lieberman would be the frontrunner now and not Howard Dean.
The reality is, national polls don't offer very much in terms of the way of predicting the outcome. Iowa is going to be very, very critical in terms of setting the stage, as will be -- as New Hampshire will be -- in terms of setting the agenda for the rest of these primaries.
WHITFIELD: And David, how do you see it? While Howard Dean is unmistakably the front-runner of the Democratic field, there are some critics who say he really doesn't have what it takes in order to beat Bush in the end.
JOHNSON: Oh, I agree with that entirely. Howard Dean is probably going to be the weakest general election candidate.
He's running a primary campaign to get the Democratic nomination, and he's going to the extreme left, very much like George McGovern did in 1972. And what we're seeing, too, is his fellow Democrats are attacking him relentlessly and the worst attacks are coming not from Republicans, but from his fellow Democrats. And...
WHITFIELD: And how dangerous is that -- that there is this kind of Democratic infighting? People are starting to forget what the whole purpose of this race is.
JOHNSON: It's incredibly dangerous. A lot of people might not be tuning in right now to some of those statements that's Dean's been making and some of the counter-statements his opponent are making. But believe -- you can believe this: Republicans are. And they will use those attacks in campaign commercials.
ZIMMERMAN: I'm afraid you're working from the talking points, though, from the '92 Bush re-election campaign. You know what the results was in that race against Bill Clinton.
I would careful not to declare mission accomplished just yet.
JOHNSON: Oh, I'm not. But the difference is...
ZIMMERMAN: I think it's very, very important to note -- it's very important to note that the polls show how very tight this race is amongst all the major Democratic candidates.
JOHNSON: It is.
ZIMMERMAN: In 1992, Bill Clinton was in third place the week he became the nominee and went on to win. And, of course, Al Gore, a year out, was 21 points behind George W. Bush and came back to win the popular vote.
(CROSSTALK)
WHITFIELD: But Robert, don't you find it interesting, however, though, this infighting -- you know, the Democrats are getting an awful lot of ink about that. Meantime, President Bush is getting ink about the economy; he's talking about the ongoing wars; he's talking about assistance to Iran, and he's not talking really about the Democratic field.
JOHNSON: That's completely right. And the other thing is, too, in 1992, Bill Clinton had a national message. Additionally, his fellow Democrats like Tom Harkin and Bob Kerry were not piling on the way that we're seeing these Democrats pile on Howard Dean. And that's a major difference. ZIMMERMAN: Well, we have never seen anything the way we've seen George W. Bush pile on with John McCain. And we saw the Republican Party pull together there.
I think it's important to note that while we have the Democratic candidates debating the issues amongst themselves -- and the debate is intense -- that's the nature of a democratic primary process.
WHITIFIELD: All right.
ZIMMERMAN: You're going to see the party pull together, be -- and I think what's indicative of that is the fact that we see our major candidates all within six or seven or eight points of beating George W. Bush a year out. It shows that the American public is interested in listening to alternative ideas. And with an administration that's given us a record number of citizens without health insurance; an administration that's given us a record number of Americans facing bankruptcy ...
WHITIFIELD: OK.
ZIMMERMAN: ...and also with the foreign policy, that leaves a -- that is really isolated America, this country is prepared to hear an alternative.
WHITIFIELD: All right. Well, Robert and David, we haven't talked much about Wesley Clark and he is believed to be perhaps possibly the come-from-behind kid.
JOHNSON: Right.
WHITIFELD: I mean, he remarkably has earned $11 million in just three months. And that, along with the $2.5 million in federal matching funds.
So David, do you see that he is indeed a pretty serious contender, that he's been able to bring in some pretty impressive numbers in a short amount of time? And it could translate into votes, right?
JOHNSON: Definitely. And he's going to be the alternative to Howard Dean, I believe, as this process goes forward. I think he'll actually overtake John Kerry in New Hampshire and he'll be posed -- poised to go into the South.
The other thing that I really would not be surprised at, before this primary process is over, is that either Bill or Hillary Clinton, either officially or very unofficially endorse Wesley Clark to make him the alternative candidate to Howard Dean and to try to propel him to the nomination.
WHITFIELD: Well, Robert?
ZIMMERMAN: You know, one of the great strengths of -- one of the great strengths of the Democratic primary process is that we're a party that runs from the grassroots up, not from the top down. So endorsements are not going to dictate who the nominee is.
What's interesting to note when you look at Iowa -- which is hard to poll because it's a caucus state. And therefore, it's very organization-intensive -- is that, realistically you've got a tight three-way race for first place, really between Dick Gephardt, John Kerry and Howard Dean.
This is now a race about expectations. And if Dean does not do as well as he is expected to do in Iowa, then clearly New Hampshire sets the stage for an interesting showdown between John Kerry and Howard Dean.
So before we start looking at what's going to happen in the third or fourth or fifth primary, we first have to look at how the first two primaries play out.
(CROSSTALK)
WHITIFELD: We're running out of time, though. But the caucus is on the 19th. New Hampshire 27th primary.
Thanks very much, gentlemen, David Johnson and Robert Zimmerman, for both of you joining us.
ZIMMERMAN: Happy new year.
WHITIFIELD: Happy New Year.
Well, CNN is your campaign headquarters throughout this election year and Judy Woodruff hosts the debut of "INSIDE POLITICS" for Sunday. That's tomorrow at 10 a.m. Eastern Time.
The Democratic candidates will face off in another presidential debate. That's tomorrow afternoon in Iowa. CNN will carry it live at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
