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CNN Live Saturday

New Poll Shows American Unemployed Optimistic

Aired January 03, 2004 - 18:45   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


SOPHIA CHOI, CNN ANCHOR: A new survey of America's unemployed workers is indicating surprising confidence about the year ahead. Many workers who lost jobs in 2003 are voicing optimism that they will find new ones quickly in 2004. So, where are the new jobs? Rick Cobb is the executive vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the Chicago company that conducted that survey. And we thank you for joining us.
RICK COBB, CHALLENGER, GRAY & CHRISTMAS: Thanks for having me.

CHOI: So where will we see job openings in the year 2004, what industry?

COBB: Well, I think the first industry that is going to show a nice upturn will be healthcare. We've got an aging population led by the baby boomers with the most disposal income. And they are not just going to be focusing on traditional healthcare but also elective and cosmetic healthcare as well, nursing, physical therapy, any gerontology areas or any elective or cosmetic surgery areas are going to see a large boom, as well as the retirement community environment too.

CHOI: Do you think that companies will start hiring full-time workers or are they going more with temp workers these days?

COBB: Well, it is kind of a mixed blessing. What is going to happen is companies really want to know that the spike that they are seeing in business is more permanent before they go full time, so that the toe they are going to stick in the water is going be by hiring temporary people. The good news is, though, that those temporary positions are more likely to become permanent than what seasonal temporary hiring would show.

CHOI: Are certain areas of the country seeing bigger job openings than others?

COBB: Well, because of the flight to the sunbelt based on the democrats, the aging population, the fact that retirement communities, healthcare etcetera, those are areas that are seeing growth. Additionally, you will see tremendous growth in the pharmaceutical industry. They are getting more product into the pipeline much more quickly, so the northeast areas and the Midwest where there is large concentrations of pharmaceutical industry will also see growth too.

CHOI: When are the next unemployment figures due out and do you expect a decrease? COBB: Well, we are looking at the unemployment numbers coming out next week. The reality is, thought, that there are so many people who are on the sidelines who just basically never even filed for unemployment. They took themselves out of the market completely, that you are not going to really see a reduction in the unemployment number that is going to reflect what is happening in the economy probably until some time in February or March.

CHOI: Well, what advice would give someone hunting for a job right now?

COBB: Just remember this, whether the unemployment is at 5 percent or one percent it is 100 percent if don't have a job. So the reality is that you really have to focus on what you can control in your job search. And there is really only two things that people can control in a job search, and that is who they see and how often they see those people. The other things like writing the perfect resume or sitting in front of Monster job boards, that is just not going to generate positions. You need to put yourself face to face with the decision maker in whatever way possible.

CHOI: And should you be looking at being more flexible these days, perhaps considering another career?

COBB: Well, one of the things about a job search is the process of looking for work is not about finding work it is about not getting eliminated. It is kind of like dating. So you really want to put yourself in as many opportunities as you can. I think people have a tendency to want to figure out exactly where they are going to work, what they are going to do and how much they are going to get paid, when that really isn't your decision until somebody wants you. So the idea is to become desirable to the marketplace first.

CHOI: And how would one go about doing that?

COBB: Well, again, you have to have exposure. You have to put yourself - sociologists will tell you that 80 percent of jobs that are found still to this date come from those three circles out from your own. So you and I have a circle of people we know. On that circle each one of those people has a circle. And on that circle is another group of people. You need to go two to three steps out in the networking process to get introduced to people who have the ability to hire you, and yet, aren't so close to -year-old that they already know who you are.

CHOI: So use your connections.

COBB: Absolutely.

CHOI: All right, well, we said that many unemployed people are voicing optimism that they will find jobs quickly in 2004, but realistically, how long is an average job hunt and what is it like out there these days?

COBB: The median placement time with an outplacement service like ours is typically around three months. It's been as high as four in a down economy. It is almost double that when you are working on your own because you tend to get distracted by things that are easy to do but really don't make any difference in terms of the job search. So on your own, it has been six to eight months. With help and focus, three to four months.

CHOI: All right, Rick Cobb, thank you so much for joining us and giving us those insights.

COBB: Thanks for having me.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired January 3, 2004 - 18:45   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOPHIA CHOI, CNN ANCHOR: A new survey of America's unemployed workers is indicating surprising confidence about the year ahead. Many workers who lost jobs in 2003 are voicing optimism that they will find new ones quickly in 2004. So, where are the new jobs? Rick Cobb is the executive vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the Chicago company that conducted that survey. And we thank you for joining us.
RICK COBB, CHALLENGER, GRAY & CHRISTMAS: Thanks for having me.

CHOI: So where will we see job openings in the year 2004, what industry?

COBB: Well, I think the first industry that is going to show a nice upturn will be healthcare. We've got an aging population led by the baby boomers with the most disposal income. And they are not just going to be focusing on traditional healthcare but also elective and cosmetic healthcare as well, nursing, physical therapy, any gerontology areas or any elective or cosmetic surgery areas are going to see a large boom, as well as the retirement community environment too.

CHOI: Do you think that companies will start hiring full-time workers or are they going more with temp workers these days?

COBB: Well, it is kind of a mixed blessing. What is going to happen is companies really want to know that the spike that they are seeing in business is more permanent before they go full time, so that the toe they are going to stick in the water is going be by hiring temporary people. The good news is, though, that those temporary positions are more likely to become permanent than what seasonal temporary hiring would show.

CHOI: Are certain areas of the country seeing bigger job openings than others?

COBB: Well, because of the flight to the sunbelt based on the democrats, the aging population, the fact that retirement communities, healthcare etcetera, those are areas that are seeing growth. Additionally, you will see tremendous growth in the pharmaceutical industry. They are getting more product into the pipeline much more quickly, so the northeast areas and the Midwest where there is large concentrations of pharmaceutical industry will also see growth too.

CHOI: When are the next unemployment figures due out and do you expect a decrease? COBB: Well, we are looking at the unemployment numbers coming out next week. The reality is, thought, that there are so many people who are on the sidelines who just basically never even filed for unemployment. They took themselves out of the market completely, that you are not going to really see a reduction in the unemployment number that is going to reflect what is happening in the economy probably until some time in February or March.

CHOI: Well, what advice would give someone hunting for a job right now?

COBB: Just remember this, whether the unemployment is at 5 percent or one percent it is 100 percent if don't have a job. So the reality is that you really have to focus on what you can control in your job search. And there is really only two things that people can control in a job search, and that is who they see and how often they see those people. The other things like writing the perfect resume or sitting in front of Monster job boards, that is just not going to generate positions. You need to put yourself face to face with the decision maker in whatever way possible.

CHOI: And should you be looking at being more flexible these days, perhaps considering another career?

COBB: Well, one of the things about a job search is the process of looking for work is not about finding work it is about not getting eliminated. It is kind of like dating. So you really want to put yourself in as many opportunities as you can. I think people have a tendency to want to figure out exactly where they are going to work, what they are going to do and how much they are going to get paid, when that really isn't your decision until somebody wants you. So the idea is to become desirable to the marketplace first.

CHOI: And how would one go about doing that?

COBB: Well, again, you have to have exposure. You have to put yourself - sociologists will tell you that 80 percent of jobs that are found still to this date come from those three circles out from your own. So you and I have a circle of people we know. On that circle each one of those people has a circle. And on that circle is another group of people. You need to go two to three steps out in the networking process to get introduced to people who have the ability to hire you, and yet, aren't so close to -year-old that they already know who you are.

CHOI: So use your connections.

COBB: Absolutely.

CHOI: All right, well, we said that many unemployed people are voicing optimism that they will find jobs quickly in 2004, but realistically, how long is an average job hunt and what is it like out there these days?

COBB: The median placement time with an outplacement service like ours is typically around three months. It's been as high as four in a down economy. It is almost double that when you are working on your own because you tend to get distracted by things that are easy to do but really don't make any difference in terms of the job search. So on your own, it has been six to eight months. With help and focus, three to four months.

CHOI: All right, Rick Cobb, thank you so much for joining us and giving us those insights.

COBB: Thanks for having me.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com