Return to Transcripts main page
CNN Live Saturday
Are Howard Dean's Comments Going To Hurt Him In Primaries, General Election?
Aired January 10, 2004 - 18:19 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein joins us now from Washington. Hi there, Ron.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Hey, Carol.
LIN: I'm looking forward to the political season. Let's talk about Howard Dean, you know. He is paying dearly in the media for what he said years ago about the Iowa caucuses being controlled by special interests. Is this going to hurt him with the caucuses in the states?
BROWNSTEIN: We will have to wait and see. Basically, in the same 24 hours that those comments came out he was endorsed by Iowa's Democratic Senator Tom Harkin. We just completed a poll at the "LA Times" in Iowa this week. And we showed Dean ahead with 30 percent, Dick Gephardt in second with 23 percent, John Kerry, still within reach of Gephardt at 18 percent and John Edwards at four percent. So Dean, it is still a close race out there, very different coalitions for Dean and Gephardt that are assembling. But Dean is in a strong position.
LIN: A close race but would it mean the death of the Gephardt campaign if he didn't win Iowa as he has done in the past when he ran?
BROWNSTEIN: Iowa has tended more to bury than to launch candidates over the years. And it could do that again. Dick Gephardt won Iowa in 1988, and even so, wasn't able to translate that into enough money and momentum to contest seriously for the nomination beyond that. If he doesn't win Iowa this time, given the financial straights that he is already in it is hard to see how he maintains sustained pressure on Dean. John Kerry could also be in very tough shape if he doesn't finish well in Iowa, Carol, because he has been past in the latest polling in New Hampshire, the second contest, by Wesley Clark. And without a strong showing in Iowa, it is hard to see what is going to slingshot Kerry back past Clark in New Hampshire. So you could imagine a scenario where if Dean does win Iowa he could fatally, or virtually fatally wound two of what were thought to be his top competitors - Dick Gephardt and John Kerry.
LIN: So how would you compare what Dick Gephardt and John Kerry are doing in Iowa right now in terms of their strategies?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, one thing that is really striking when you look at the poll that we are releasing today is that there are very different constituencies for Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean. They really are running almost mirror image coalitions, in some ways different generations of the Democratic Party. Dick Gephardt in Iowa is very dependent on blue collar voters, less affluent voters, seniors, people who work with those hands. And he is aiming at them with the messages you said today on trade and the economy. He attacks Howard Dean as being not sufficiently attuned to protecting American jobs on trade. He attacks him as being too willing to cut entitlement programs like Medicare. He has got a message and an audience what is very much reminiscent of the coalition the Democrats relied on in the days of Franklin Roosevelt.
John Kerry is a little different. Kerry I think from my own experience and also talking to people out there and the poll is attracting people in Iowa I think less around any particular set of issues than a broader sense that he has the experience and the wherewithal to be a good president. When you talk to Kerry supporters in Iowa, strikingly, he probably has more support in Iowa now than he does in his neighboring New Hampshire. It is really a broader sense of him as a person that they are attracted to rather than any particular issue.
LIN: Interesting. And what about this endorsement for Wesley Clark by Enron's whistle blower Sharon Watkins? What do you make of that?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, look, four years ago, I guess, right now in New Hampshire John McCain stayed out of Iowa and proved to be one of the big winners in the caucus by focusing on New Hampshire and igniting a real kind of grassroots prairie fire up there to mix geographic metaphors. Wesley Clark may be doing something of the same thing. This kind of endorsement that you mentioned is part of an overall way in which he is positioning himself as a nonpolitician who has leadership strength and can bring change to the political system. New Hampshire voters, you know, often fall for the candidate who seems the least like a conventional politician. It was true for McCain. It was true for Gary Hart. It was true even for Paul Tsongas in his own way. And with the crowds that Clark is generating and the movement that he has in the polls he could turn out to be one of the biggest winners in Iowa by staying away.
LIN: Yes, remember when Bush senior was standing in the crowd saying I am one of you? I don't think it sold very well that year. All right, on a completely different note, Bush senior's son, George W. Bush, Paul O'Neil, his former treasury secretary came out with some pretty damning remarks about President Bush's full intent to attack Iraq, to go to war with Iraq and get rid of Saddam Hussein, even before this whole issue of weapons of mass destruction, even before September 11 took place.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes, striking, I mean, look, this is clearly going to be a centerpiece of the debate in 2004. The further we go the more it appears likely that the Democrats, in fact, if you think Dean and Clark are the two strongest candidates at this point, the odds are overwhelming the Democrats will end up with a candidate who opposed the war, right now you would say that anyway. And the likelihood is that there will be a very sharp point of debate. Democratic voters overwhelmingly think it was the wrong decision to go to war. The rest of the country right now, especially after Saddam was captured, most people think it was the right thing to do.
President Bush has made no doubt that he is going to - left no doubt that he is going to very aggressively defend the decision, that news conference he gave the other day. And when he started, his opening statement was the best summation I have seen of what is likely to his case in 2004. He said, look, because of my decisions we are a safer country. Howard Dean wants to dispute that. Wesley Clark in his own way wants to dispute that. And in different ways even Dick Gephardt and John Kerry does. So I think we are going to see a fundamental argument in 2004 about whether the war in Iraq has made it safer or not and whether it is worth the cost in lives and dollars.
LIN: Regardless of what is happening with the economy right here at home, all right.
BROWNSTEIN: Absolutely.
LIN: Ron Brownstein, you are doing to be dusting off your down jacket and heading up to the snows of Iowa real soon. Thanks so much for joining us tonight.
BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
General Election?>
Aired January 10, 2004 - 18:19 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein joins us now from Washington. Hi there, Ron.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Hey, Carol.
LIN: I'm looking forward to the political season. Let's talk about Howard Dean, you know. He is paying dearly in the media for what he said years ago about the Iowa caucuses being controlled by special interests. Is this going to hurt him with the caucuses in the states?
BROWNSTEIN: We will have to wait and see. Basically, in the same 24 hours that those comments came out he was endorsed by Iowa's Democratic Senator Tom Harkin. We just completed a poll at the "LA Times" in Iowa this week. And we showed Dean ahead with 30 percent, Dick Gephardt in second with 23 percent, John Kerry, still within reach of Gephardt at 18 percent and John Edwards at four percent. So Dean, it is still a close race out there, very different coalitions for Dean and Gephardt that are assembling. But Dean is in a strong position.
LIN: A close race but would it mean the death of the Gephardt campaign if he didn't win Iowa as he has done in the past when he ran?
BROWNSTEIN: Iowa has tended more to bury than to launch candidates over the years. And it could do that again. Dick Gephardt won Iowa in 1988, and even so, wasn't able to translate that into enough money and momentum to contest seriously for the nomination beyond that. If he doesn't win Iowa this time, given the financial straights that he is already in it is hard to see how he maintains sustained pressure on Dean. John Kerry could also be in very tough shape if he doesn't finish well in Iowa, Carol, because he has been past in the latest polling in New Hampshire, the second contest, by Wesley Clark. And without a strong showing in Iowa, it is hard to see what is going to slingshot Kerry back past Clark in New Hampshire. So you could imagine a scenario where if Dean does win Iowa he could fatally, or virtually fatally wound two of what were thought to be his top competitors - Dick Gephardt and John Kerry.
LIN: So how would you compare what Dick Gephardt and John Kerry are doing in Iowa right now in terms of their strategies?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, one thing that is really striking when you look at the poll that we are releasing today is that there are very different constituencies for Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean. They really are running almost mirror image coalitions, in some ways different generations of the Democratic Party. Dick Gephardt in Iowa is very dependent on blue collar voters, less affluent voters, seniors, people who work with those hands. And he is aiming at them with the messages you said today on trade and the economy. He attacks Howard Dean as being not sufficiently attuned to protecting American jobs on trade. He attacks him as being too willing to cut entitlement programs like Medicare. He has got a message and an audience what is very much reminiscent of the coalition the Democrats relied on in the days of Franklin Roosevelt.
John Kerry is a little different. Kerry I think from my own experience and also talking to people out there and the poll is attracting people in Iowa I think less around any particular set of issues than a broader sense that he has the experience and the wherewithal to be a good president. When you talk to Kerry supporters in Iowa, strikingly, he probably has more support in Iowa now than he does in his neighboring New Hampshire. It is really a broader sense of him as a person that they are attracted to rather than any particular issue.
LIN: Interesting. And what about this endorsement for Wesley Clark by Enron's whistle blower Sharon Watkins? What do you make of that?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, look, four years ago, I guess, right now in New Hampshire John McCain stayed out of Iowa and proved to be one of the big winners in the caucus by focusing on New Hampshire and igniting a real kind of grassroots prairie fire up there to mix geographic metaphors. Wesley Clark may be doing something of the same thing. This kind of endorsement that you mentioned is part of an overall way in which he is positioning himself as a nonpolitician who has leadership strength and can bring change to the political system. New Hampshire voters, you know, often fall for the candidate who seems the least like a conventional politician. It was true for McCain. It was true for Gary Hart. It was true even for Paul Tsongas in his own way. And with the crowds that Clark is generating and the movement that he has in the polls he could turn out to be one of the biggest winners in Iowa by staying away.
LIN: Yes, remember when Bush senior was standing in the crowd saying I am one of you? I don't think it sold very well that year. All right, on a completely different note, Bush senior's son, George W. Bush, Paul O'Neil, his former treasury secretary came out with some pretty damning remarks about President Bush's full intent to attack Iraq, to go to war with Iraq and get rid of Saddam Hussein, even before this whole issue of weapons of mass destruction, even before September 11 took place.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes, striking, I mean, look, this is clearly going to be a centerpiece of the debate in 2004. The further we go the more it appears likely that the Democrats, in fact, if you think Dean and Clark are the two strongest candidates at this point, the odds are overwhelming the Democrats will end up with a candidate who opposed the war, right now you would say that anyway. And the likelihood is that there will be a very sharp point of debate. Democratic voters overwhelmingly think it was the wrong decision to go to war. The rest of the country right now, especially after Saddam was captured, most people think it was the right thing to do.
President Bush has made no doubt that he is going to - left no doubt that he is going to very aggressively defend the decision, that news conference he gave the other day. And when he started, his opening statement was the best summation I have seen of what is likely to his case in 2004. He said, look, because of my decisions we are a safer country. Howard Dean wants to dispute that. Wesley Clark in his own way wants to dispute that. And in different ways even Dick Gephardt and John Kerry does. So I think we are going to see a fundamental argument in 2004 about whether the war in Iraq has made it safer or not and whether it is worth the cost in lives and dollars.
LIN: Regardless of what is happening with the economy right here at home, all right.
BROWNSTEIN: Absolutely.
LIN: Ron Brownstein, you are doing to be dusting off your down jacket and heading up to the snows of Iowa real soon. Thanks so much for joining us tonight.
BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
General Election?>
