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CNN Live Saturday

John Kerry Leads In New Hampshire

Aired January 24, 2004 - 12:11   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


FREDERICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: More campaign analysis now. For that, we go to CNN political analyst, Ron Brownstein, who is also columnist for the "Los Angeles Times."
Good to see you, Ron.

RON BROWNSTEIN, "LOS ANGELES TIMES": Hey, Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: All right. So the recent polls showing that John Kerry is in the lead. Is it believed that this is reflective of perhaps his win in Iowa? Or, simply, that New Englanders have certain loyalties to other fellow New Englanders.

BROWNSTEIN: I'll go for door No. 3 on this, actually. I think that what's happened is -- what's here is that Howard Dean was ahead in this race for a very long time. There were a lot of voters with Dean yard signs in their -- you know, in their front yard and basically, Dean had had their commitment. And now, over the last few weeks the questions that have been raised about him, mostly inflicted by his own hand, from his about Saddam Hussein's capture, to Osama bin Laden, to the loss in Iowa and then, of course, the speech Monday night after the concession speech, all of that has dislodging a lot of Dean voters from him. They really hadn't been watching the other candidates. John Kerry as a neighbor and as a familiar face is the most comfortable place for many of them to land. His experience and stability also seems more valuable, I think, against the backdrop of the questions about Dean on both of those counts.

WHITFIELD: Well, interesting. So, you say Howard Dean has had to spend an awful lot of time with damage controlling following the "I have a scream" speech and not doing not as well as expected in Iowa. Well, speaking of damage control, Wes Clark, as we heard Bob Franken explain, he's having to do an awful lot of damage control after spending a significant amount of time in New Hampshire, and bypassing Iowa all together.

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah. Two points. First, it's important to understand that Howard Dean was declining in New Hampshire even before Iowa. He had fallen from the mid-40s in polling to the high 20s, so he had begun to erode even before the loss. Wes Clark took advantage of that during the period in January when the other candidates were in Iowa. He rose in the polls here, he was the only candidate, along with Lieberman, who was here full-time. But, now that other candidates are here and beginning to expand their own appeal, Clark has a challenge that would be familiar from the military, that total ground you've taken, and right now he's having trouble doing that. He's eroding a bit in most of the polls. He had a tough debate, Thursday night, was asked a series of tough questions about being a lobbyist, about past votes for republicans, even his support from controversial filmmaker, Michael Moore. So, I think that Clark may have to show a little bit more ability to distinguish himself and create clear distinctions in order to hold his vote here and certainly down the road.

WHITFIELD: All right. Ron Brownstein, thanks very much. Good to see you.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired January 24, 2004 - 12:11   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FREDERICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: More campaign analysis now. For that, we go to CNN political analyst, Ron Brownstein, who is also columnist for the "Los Angeles Times."
Good to see you, Ron.

RON BROWNSTEIN, "LOS ANGELES TIMES": Hey, Fredricka.

WHITFIELD: All right. So the recent polls showing that John Kerry is in the lead. Is it believed that this is reflective of perhaps his win in Iowa? Or, simply, that New Englanders have certain loyalties to other fellow New Englanders.

BROWNSTEIN: I'll go for door No. 3 on this, actually. I think that what's happened is -- what's here is that Howard Dean was ahead in this race for a very long time. There were a lot of voters with Dean yard signs in their -- you know, in their front yard and basically, Dean had had their commitment. And now, over the last few weeks the questions that have been raised about him, mostly inflicted by his own hand, from his about Saddam Hussein's capture, to Osama bin Laden, to the loss in Iowa and then, of course, the speech Monday night after the concession speech, all of that has dislodging a lot of Dean voters from him. They really hadn't been watching the other candidates. John Kerry as a neighbor and as a familiar face is the most comfortable place for many of them to land. His experience and stability also seems more valuable, I think, against the backdrop of the questions about Dean on both of those counts.

WHITFIELD: Well, interesting. So, you say Howard Dean has had to spend an awful lot of time with damage controlling following the "I have a scream" speech and not doing not as well as expected in Iowa. Well, speaking of damage control, Wes Clark, as we heard Bob Franken explain, he's having to do an awful lot of damage control after spending a significant amount of time in New Hampshire, and bypassing Iowa all together.

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah. Two points. First, it's important to understand that Howard Dean was declining in New Hampshire even before Iowa. He had fallen from the mid-40s in polling to the high 20s, so he had begun to erode even before the loss. Wes Clark took advantage of that during the period in January when the other candidates were in Iowa. He rose in the polls here, he was the only candidate, along with Lieberman, who was here full-time. But, now that other candidates are here and beginning to expand their own appeal, Clark has a challenge that would be familiar from the military, that total ground you've taken, and right now he's having trouble doing that. He's eroding a bit in most of the polls. He had a tough debate, Thursday night, was asked a series of tough questions about being a lobbyist, about past votes for republicans, even his support from controversial filmmaker, Michael Moore. So, I think that Clark may have to show a little bit more ability to distinguish himself and create clear distinctions in order to hold his vote here and certainly down the road.

WHITFIELD: All right. Ron Brownstein, thanks very much. Good to see you.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com