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CNN Live Saturday
Showdown in New Hampshire
Aired January 24, 2004 - 18:19 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: We're turning or focus back on New Hampshire. An new CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup tracking poll continues to show John Kerry ahead of the pack of Democratic presidential candidates. With 35 percent of those surveyed say he's their choice for the nomination.
His support has been steadily rising in the polls since last weekend. Howard Dean's on the other hand, has been slipping. He's in second place with 23 percent. Followed by Wesley Clark with 14 percent. The poll is based on interviews with likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire, conducted Wednesday through Friday.
CNN Political Analyst Stu Rothenberg joins us now with a little bit of analysis on this and more.
Hi, Stu.
STU ROTHENBERG, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Hi, Carol.
LIN: Does it look like John Kerry has a solid lead?
ROTHENBERG: Well, at this point the surveys suggest that he does have a solid lead. He has opened it up over Howard Dean, who is all by himself in second place. There are three candidates bunched in third place.
But there is still a third of the voters, even slightly more, about 36 percent, say that they could change their minds. So, I think we have to remember what happened right before Iowa when there was some dramatic turns and twists.
But right now you'd have to say that Kerry has significant and rather consistent advantage.
LIN: We're looking at him skating on the ice there. What do you make of that strategy?
ROTHENBERG: Well, is certainly drew a huge crowd. It shows him to be energetic. And that is a neat thing to do, an exciting thing to do, a cool thing to do. This is a guy who can be president but who can also ice skate. What more could you want in a presidential nominee.
LIN: Right, and clearly someone who seems to have recovered from his prostate cancer surgery.
ROTHENBERG: Sure, absolutely. LIN: All right. In the meantime, Howard Dean, what action are you seeing on his front? How is he going to win this thing, if he is at all?
ROTHENBERG: Well, the hemorrhaging has stopped. That's the good news for Howard Dean. At least, that is what the surveys suggest. So, he has his mother campaigning for him. He is still trying to soften his image. He's under control.
He really needs some sort of, at least, small bounce between now and Tuesday to convince everybody that he's back on track, to keep his supporters energized. Obviously, he has had an awful week. But he needs to put that behind himself and really end right before New Hampshire here, these last few days, with some sort of enthusiasm.
LIN: And where does this all leave Wesley Clark, who was really banking on Howard Dean taking Iowa and being the alternative candidate? Now it seems like the other candidates are dividing up his support base.
ROTHENBERG: You are absolutely right. He was counting on this being a two-person race at this point, himself and Howard Dean. It has not worked out at all that way. And when we look at Wesley Clark's numbers in these tracking polls, including the most recent CNN, his numbers are sinking. He's down in the mid to low teens.
There was a sense that he was eclipsed that he has been eclipsed by all these other candidates who have been getting the attention around or right after Iowa. It's more that Wesley Clark has been forgotten by New Hampshire voters.
I've heard some significant criticism of his debate performance. That he didn't really stand out. That he didn't answer questions well. His campaign suddenly looks in trouble. And since he's trying to jumpstart a campaign here, since he bypassed Iowa, this would be a problem if he finished a very weak third or fourth. Or as the polls suggest he could even finish as low as fifth.
LIN: And then what would happen to his candidacy, because then onto South Carolina where John Edwards is expected to do very well, as a son of the South, as well?
ROTHENBERG: That's right. Yes, it would certainly hamper Clark significantly. He still has significant personal resources. He's got some personal charisma. He has a good resume. But after the first two contests, if Wesley Clark starts to find himself to be an also-ran, I think he's going to have difficulty jumpstarting in any one of these other places.
South Carolina would probably be a place. Maybe Arizona where he made some particular effort. But he'd need to start to rejoin the top tier.
LIN: How long do you think Joe Lieberman is going to hang in there?
ROTHENBERG: Carol, that's a terrific question. Maybe you ought to ask Senator Lieberman.
You know, his campaign is -- I just go an e-mail today saying, "Joe Lieberman is on the move in the newest polls." And he is, in the CNN poll he's jumped up all the way to 10 percent. And you can say he's fighting for third place with John Edwards and with Wesley Clark.
But there is no indication really that Joe Lieberman has much of a chance of winning the Democratic presidential nomination. Whatever his positive attributes, and they are considerable, in this race, in this party, in 2004 he doesn't seem to be there. But he certainly wants to test his message out here in New Hampshire. He may go on and look at Oklahoma and Arizona where he has made an effort.
But after that you have to wonder whether Joe Lieberman might -- whether he wants to put himself through this.
LIN: Well, you have seen many a campaign, many rounds through New Hampshire. Are you anticipating any surprises? And if so, how might they play out?
ROTHENBERG: You know, Carol, after Iowa I think it is probably best to anticipate surprises. We didn't expect the Iowa race to turn in a matter of a few days. And we don't expect anything here. But that's what makes it a surprise. And so we have to keep our eye out on the tracking polls, on the crowds. I'll be going on a number of events the next few days to see what the crowds are like.
And then beyond, this race is not likely to end with Tuesday with New Hampshire, but we're likely to go onto Missouri and South Carolina. So, you always have to be looking head and be prepared for the unexpected.
LIN: We sure are.
How's the weather out there? Is that likely to affect turnout?
ROTHENBERG: Well, it was about 10 degrees today and the forecast for tomorrow is snow. It's New Hampshire. Yes, it could affect turn out and depending on what the weather is like, the road conditions the snow, the cold. I think all the campaigns are prepared for this, but weather does have a habit of affecting these races in an unpredictable way.
LIN: All right. Thank you very much, Stu. It sounds like you're fighting a cold yourself?
ROTHENBERG: A little one. You get a cold when it's cold. And it's cold.
LIN: There you go. Well, you hang in there. We're looking forward to your coverage on Tuesday night.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired January 24, 2004 - 18:19 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: We're turning or focus back on New Hampshire. An new CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup tracking poll continues to show John Kerry ahead of the pack of Democratic presidential candidates. With 35 percent of those surveyed say he's their choice for the nomination.
His support has been steadily rising in the polls since last weekend. Howard Dean's on the other hand, has been slipping. He's in second place with 23 percent. Followed by Wesley Clark with 14 percent. The poll is based on interviews with likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire, conducted Wednesday through Friday.
CNN Political Analyst Stu Rothenberg joins us now with a little bit of analysis on this and more.
Hi, Stu.
STU ROTHENBERG, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Hi, Carol.
LIN: Does it look like John Kerry has a solid lead?
ROTHENBERG: Well, at this point the surveys suggest that he does have a solid lead. He has opened it up over Howard Dean, who is all by himself in second place. There are three candidates bunched in third place.
But there is still a third of the voters, even slightly more, about 36 percent, say that they could change their minds. So, I think we have to remember what happened right before Iowa when there was some dramatic turns and twists.
But right now you'd have to say that Kerry has significant and rather consistent advantage.
LIN: We're looking at him skating on the ice there. What do you make of that strategy?
ROTHENBERG: Well, is certainly drew a huge crowd. It shows him to be energetic. And that is a neat thing to do, an exciting thing to do, a cool thing to do. This is a guy who can be president but who can also ice skate. What more could you want in a presidential nominee.
LIN: Right, and clearly someone who seems to have recovered from his prostate cancer surgery.
ROTHENBERG: Sure, absolutely. LIN: All right. In the meantime, Howard Dean, what action are you seeing on his front? How is he going to win this thing, if he is at all?
ROTHENBERG: Well, the hemorrhaging has stopped. That's the good news for Howard Dean. At least, that is what the surveys suggest. So, he has his mother campaigning for him. He is still trying to soften his image. He's under control.
He really needs some sort of, at least, small bounce between now and Tuesday to convince everybody that he's back on track, to keep his supporters energized. Obviously, he has had an awful week. But he needs to put that behind himself and really end right before New Hampshire here, these last few days, with some sort of enthusiasm.
LIN: And where does this all leave Wesley Clark, who was really banking on Howard Dean taking Iowa and being the alternative candidate? Now it seems like the other candidates are dividing up his support base.
ROTHENBERG: You are absolutely right. He was counting on this being a two-person race at this point, himself and Howard Dean. It has not worked out at all that way. And when we look at Wesley Clark's numbers in these tracking polls, including the most recent CNN, his numbers are sinking. He's down in the mid to low teens.
There was a sense that he was eclipsed that he has been eclipsed by all these other candidates who have been getting the attention around or right after Iowa. It's more that Wesley Clark has been forgotten by New Hampshire voters.
I've heard some significant criticism of his debate performance. That he didn't really stand out. That he didn't answer questions well. His campaign suddenly looks in trouble. And since he's trying to jumpstart a campaign here, since he bypassed Iowa, this would be a problem if he finished a very weak third or fourth. Or as the polls suggest he could even finish as low as fifth.
LIN: And then what would happen to his candidacy, because then onto South Carolina where John Edwards is expected to do very well, as a son of the South, as well?
ROTHENBERG: That's right. Yes, it would certainly hamper Clark significantly. He still has significant personal resources. He's got some personal charisma. He has a good resume. But after the first two contests, if Wesley Clark starts to find himself to be an also-ran, I think he's going to have difficulty jumpstarting in any one of these other places.
South Carolina would probably be a place. Maybe Arizona where he made some particular effort. But he'd need to start to rejoin the top tier.
LIN: How long do you think Joe Lieberman is going to hang in there?
ROTHENBERG: Carol, that's a terrific question. Maybe you ought to ask Senator Lieberman.
You know, his campaign is -- I just go an e-mail today saying, "Joe Lieberman is on the move in the newest polls." And he is, in the CNN poll he's jumped up all the way to 10 percent. And you can say he's fighting for third place with John Edwards and with Wesley Clark.
But there is no indication really that Joe Lieberman has much of a chance of winning the Democratic presidential nomination. Whatever his positive attributes, and they are considerable, in this race, in this party, in 2004 he doesn't seem to be there. But he certainly wants to test his message out here in New Hampshire. He may go on and look at Oklahoma and Arizona where he has made an effort.
But after that you have to wonder whether Joe Lieberman might -- whether he wants to put himself through this.
LIN: Well, you have seen many a campaign, many rounds through New Hampshire. Are you anticipating any surprises? And if so, how might they play out?
ROTHENBERG: You know, Carol, after Iowa I think it is probably best to anticipate surprises. We didn't expect the Iowa race to turn in a matter of a few days. And we don't expect anything here. But that's what makes it a surprise. And so we have to keep our eye out on the tracking polls, on the crowds. I'll be going on a number of events the next few days to see what the crowds are like.
And then beyond, this race is not likely to end with Tuesday with New Hampshire, but we're likely to go onto Missouri and South Carolina. So, you always have to be looking head and be prepared for the unexpected.
LIN: We sure are.
How's the weather out there? Is that likely to affect turnout?
ROTHENBERG: Well, it was about 10 degrees today and the forecast for tomorrow is snow. It's New Hampshire. Yes, it could affect turn out and depending on what the weather is like, the road conditions the snow, the cold. I think all the campaigns are prepared for this, but weather does have a habit of affecting these races in an unpredictable way.
LIN: All right. Thank you very much, Stu. It sounds like you're fighting a cold yourself?
ROTHENBERG: A little one. You get a cold when it's cold. And it's cold.
LIN: There you go. Well, you hang in there. We're looking forward to your coverage on Tuesday night.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
