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CNN Live Saturday
Is Iraq Poised For A Civil War?
Aired February 14, 2004 - 14:38 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KELLI ARENA, CNN ANCHOR: Attacks on Iraqi police and civilians may be a sign of insurgent strategy. An effort to put Iraqi against Iraqi. Well let's get some insight from an expert on the Middle East. Professor Fawaz Gerges. Hello sir, thank you for joining us.
FAWAZ GERGES, SARAH LAWRENCE COLLEGE: My pleasure much.
ARENA: We hear much talk about the possibility of Civil War in Iraq. Do you believe that is a real possibility?
GERGES: You know, if you ask average Iraqis about the likelihood of civil strife, they would also say a definite no and confirm their belief in communal harmony and co-existence. But at the same time I think, as you said, there is no denying that the community situation is deeply polarized and volatile. And I think as the deadline approaches for transferring power to Iraqis at the end of June.
I think the struggle will become much more intense between among the various Iraqi communities and eventually exist that this particular struggle could get out of control and plunge Iraq into sectarian strife. And I think what we need to remember here is that the destruction of Iraqi civil society and institutions created a vacuum of legitimate authority.
This vacuum now is being sealed with religious and tribal leaders. I mean look at who is the most powerful man in Iraq today? The most powerful man in Iraq today is Ayatollah Al Sistani (ph). The prominent (INAUDIBLE). Not secular leaders or even Paul Bremer the U.S administration.
ARENA: You know what Professor, you said something that when the transfer of power is made in June, and the U.S. seems pretty firm on that transfer date. But transfer to what? I mean can there be something put together in time for an orderly transfer?
GERGES: Well, I think this -- the complex -- this is the difficult question. While most Iraqis agree on really getting rid of the occupation, they would like to become independent and sovereign again, I think they just disagree on what kind of political future the vision of Iraq and also disagree on the most effective means to transfer power to Iraq is.
And this is I think what the United Nations is trying to do. This is why I believe myself that the involvement of the United Nations is very critical. It's very critical because most Iraqis have confidence in the United Nations acting as a fair referee. And this is why I think the United States must support whatever decisions and judgments the United Nations agree on because it is -- it's in the interest of the United States and Iraq as well.
ARENA: So would you say you were optimistic about the possibility for early elections?
GERGES: No, I don't think so it seems to me the consensus is that while elections are needed and necessary and while most Iraqis would like to have elections, I think you cannot have the elections by the end of June because you need the mechanisms, you need logistical, you need security, and also you need agreements among various Iraqi communities.
So I think the elections have to be postponed. They are talking now about a few months after the June deadline. The question is who would you transfer power to? Would you expand the Iraqi governing council? Would you appoint a new member to the council? Would you have different mechanisms to transfer power to? This is really a highly complex situation. And let's hope as the deadline approaches the violence itself does not plunge Iraq deeper and deeper into sectarian strife and war.
ARENA: One can hope. Professor Fawaz Gerges, thank you so much for joining us.
GERGES: Thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired February 14, 2004 - 14:38 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KELLI ARENA, CNN ANCHOR: Attacks on Iraqi police and civilians may be a sign of insurgent strategy. An effort to put Iraqi against Iraqi. Well let's get some insight from an expert on the Middle East. Professor Fawaz Gerges. Hello sir, thank you for joining us.
FAWAZ GERGES, SARAH LAWRENCE COLLEGE: My pleasure much.
ARENA: We hear much talk about the possibility of Civil War in Iraq. Do you believe that is a real possibility?
GERGES: You know, if you ask average Iraqis about the likelihood of civil strife, they would also say a definite no and confirm their belief in communal harmony and co-existence. But at the same time I think, as you said, there is no denying that the community situation is deeply polarized and volatile. And I think as the deadline approaches for transferring power to Iraqis at the end of June.
I think the struggle will become much more intense between among the various Iraqi communities and eventually exist that this particular struggle could get out of control and plunge Iraq into sectarian strife. And I think what we need to remember here is that the destruction of Iraqi civil society and institutions created a vacuum of legitimate authority.
This vacuum now is being sealed with religious and tribal leaders. I mean look at who is the most powerful man in Iraq today? The most powerful man in Iraq today is Ayatollah Al Sistani (ph). The prominent (INAUDIBLE). Not secular leaders or even Paul Bremer the U.S administration.
ARENA: You know what Professor, you said something that when the transfer of power is made in June, and the U.S. seems pretty firm on that transfer date. But transfer to what? I mean can there be something put together in time for an orderly transfer?
GERGES: Well, I think this -- the complex -- this is the difficult question. While most Iraqis agree on really getting rid of the occupation, they would like to become independent and sovereign again, I think they just disagree on what kind of political future the vision of Iraq and also disagree on the most effective means to transfer power to Iraq is.
And this is I think what the United Nations is trying to do. This is why I believe myself that the involvement of the United Nations is very critical. It's very critical because most Iraqis have confidence in the United Nations acting as a fair referee. And this is why I think the United States must support whatever decisions and judgments the United Nations agree on because it is -- it's in the interest of the United States and Iraq as well.
ARENA: So would you say you were optimistic about the possibility for early elections?
GERGES: No, I don't think so it seems to me the consensus is that while elections are needed and necessary and while most Iraqis would like to have elections, I think you cannot have the elections by the end of June because you need the mechanisms, you need logistical, you need security, and also you need agreements among various Iraqi communities.
So I think the elections have to be postponed. They are talking now about a few months after the June deadline. The question is who would you transfer power to? Would you expand the Iraqi governing council? Would you appoint a new member to the council? Would you have different mechanisms to transfer power to? This is really a highly complex situation. And let's hope as the deadline approaches the violence itself does not plunge Iraq deeper and deeper into sectarian strife and war.
ARENA: One can hope. Professor Fawaz Gerges, thank you so much for joining us.
GERGES: Thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
