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CNN Live Saturday

Bush Administration Releases New Ad Attacking John Kerry

Aired February 14, 2004 - 12:10   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


KELLI ARENA, CNN ANCHOR: Well, while the democrats battle it out, President Bush's campaigning is not sitting still, it's without a new ad attacking, who else? John Kerry. And, we have nine months to go before Election Day. For some early analysis, political scientist, Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia, he is in Charlottesville.
Thank you for joining us.

LARRY SABATO, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA: Delighted to be with you.

ARENA: What is going on? This is February. It is already looking like a head-to-head race between Bush and Kerry.

SABATO: Well, it is for all practical purposes. Now remember, anything can happen in politics but John Kerry appears to be firmly in the Saddle, and is very likely to have wrapped this up in a very short period of time. So, this whole process is accelerated. Part of it is the matter of having the primaries front loaded to the extent that they are. Part of it is that already we're in the midst of major issues like the president's military record. So, I think it's going to be a very intense nine months and I hate to say this, but I would predict flatly this will be the dirtiest, nastiest campaign in modern American history, on both sides.

ARENA: Right. But we're already seeing defensive moves by the White House. I mean, obviously, the release of records -- military records by the president, the agreement to go before the 9/11 Commission, and now, we're seeing the ad -- the first republican ad against Kerry. Do you think that this is -- this is a White House on the run?

SABATO: Oh, absolutely. Yeah. Look at the polls. The White House is not just skittish; I think they're terrified of what they see. Right now, if the election were held today, John Kerry would not only win, he would win in a near landslide. That has frightened the White House and should frighten the White House. Here's the problem for Kerry, though. The election is November 2nd. This is going to go back and forth, the lead will change hands. The White House, though, has to shake some rust off, they have terribly mishandled the president's military records and that whole issue or non-issue has dominated a week-and-a-half when most Americans, even democrats by two to one in a "Washington Post" poll, say it's a non-issue.

ARENA: You know, you mentioned back and forth, and that reminds us of Howard Dean who originally said that if he didn't win Wisconsin he was out, now he's saying maybe not. Do you think that that the Dean campaign has any chance, at this point, of gaining any momentum?

SABATO: Under the Constitution candidates can run as long as they want, and that's true of Howard Dean and John Edwards, but I tell you what Edwards and Dean are thinking about. They're remembering that in past years, democrats have experienced something called "voter's remorse" -- buyer's remorse. After they pick a nominee, democrats have a tendency to vote for some other candidate in late primaries. Here's the problem this year: There's only one thing on democrat's minds, that's defeating George W. Bush. I don't care which candidate had emerged from Iowa, the democrats would have united quickly behind him and now John Kerry is experiencing, what I call, the "Mother Theresa Moment," he can do no wrong, he is all good, he is a saint, and Dean and Edwards are running against a person the democrats have decided is their guy to beat Bush.

ARENA: All right. On that note, Larry Sabato, thank you so much for joining us. We'll talk again.

SABATO: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired February 14, 2004 - 12:10   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KELLI ARENA, CNN ANCHOR: Well, while the democrats battle it out, President Bush's campaigning is not sitting still, it's without a new ad attacking, who else? John Kerry. And, we have nine months to go before Election Day. For some early analysis, political scientist, Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia, he is in Charlottesville.
Thank you for joining us.

LARRY SABATO, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA: Delighted to be with you.

ARENA: What is going on? This is February. It is already looking like a head-to-head race between Bush and Kerry.

SABATO: Well, it is for all practical purposes. Now remember, anything can happen in politics but John Kerry appears to be firmly in the Saddle, and is very likely to have wrapped this up in a very short period of time. So, this whole process is accelerated. Part of it is the matter of having the primaries front loaded to the extent that they are. Part of it is that already we're in the midst of major issues like the president's military record. So, I think it's going to be a very intense nine months and I hate to say this, but I would predict flatly this will be the dirtiest, nastiest campaign in modern American history, on both sides.

ARENA: Right. But we're already seeing defensive moves by the White House. I mean, obviously, the release of records -- military records by the president, the agreement to go before the 9/11 Commission, and now, we're seeing the ad -- the first republican ad against Kerry. Do you think that this is -- this is a White House on the run?

SABATO: Oh, absolutely. Yeah. Look at the polls. The White House is not just skittish; I think they're terrified of what they see. Right now, if the election were held today, John Kerry would not only win, he would win in a near landslide. That has frightened the White House and should frighten the White House. Here's the problem for Kerry, though. The election is November 2nd. This is going to go back and forth, the lead will change hands. The White House, though, has to shake some rust off, they have terribly mishandled the president's military records and that whole issue or non-issue has dominated a week-and-a-half when most Americans, even democrats by two to one in a "Washington Post" poll, say it's a non-issue.

ARENA: You know, you mentioned back and forth, and that reminds us of Howard Dean who originally said that if he didn't win Wisconsin he was out, now he's saying maybe not. Do you think that that the Dean campaign has any chance, at this point, of gaining any momentum?

SABATO: Under the Constitution candidates can run as long as they want, and that's true of Howard Dean and John Edwards, but I tell you what Edwards and Dean are thinking about. They're remembering that in past years, democrats have experienced something called "voter's remorse" -- buyer's remorse. After they pick a nominee, democrats have a tendency to vote for some other candidate in late primaries. Here's the problem this year: There's only one thing on democrat's minds, that's defeating George W. Bush. I don't care which candidate had emerged from Iowa, the democrats would have united quickly behind him and now John Kerry is experiencing, what I call, the "Mother Theresa Moment," he can do no wrong, he is all good, he is a saint, and Dean and Edwards are running against a person the democrats have decided is their guy to beat Bush.

ARENA: All right. On that note, Larry Sabato, thank you so much for joining us. We'll talk again.

SABATO: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com