Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Live Saturday

Mount St. Helens Eruption Imminent; Ronald Reagan's Letters For Sale; Press Conference With Tom Pierson

Aired October 02, 2004 - 16:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: This hour on CNN, the airline industry. How will it look in six months? And how will it affect your lives. Ronald Reagan's letters up for sale. What did the former president really think of Mikhail Gorbachev? And we're asking the tough questions after that presidential debate. Who gets the most blinking award? How about the Al & Tipper Gore memorial kiss award? And finally, what was the sound you never heard? Jeanne Moos has her unique look at the presidential debate.
Hello, and welcome to CNN LIVE SATURDAY. I'm Andrea Koppel.

Here's what's happening now in the news. More smoke and belching is expected from Mount St. Helens. Scientists say yesterday's volcanic blast probably points to pressure building up again inside the mountain. We're expecting a news conference regarding the volcano in a few minutes and we'll bring it to you live when it happens.

The Department of Homeland Security is coming under fire for its handling of terrorist watch lists. In a report from its own inspector general, the department is described as having failed in its mission to consolidate such lists. There are 12 separate terrorists watch lists from nine different government agencies.

Sporadic fighting around Iraq today, witnesses say U.S. troops opened fire on insurgents after a car exploded by a U.S. military convoy near Fallujah. Fighting also persisted in the towns of Samarra and Sadr city, where American forces and Iraqi forces have launched a major offensive.

But we begin with rumblings at Mount St. Helens. The volcano is proving to be quite worrisome to geologists after spewing steam and ash in a spectacular display yesterday. Scientists are warning there's more to come. Small earthquakes are rattling in the area in Washington state again today. And our Kimberly Osias is there riding them out. So Kimberly, what are they expecting will happen in the next day or so?

KIMBERLY OSIAS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Andrea, things are not over here, that is for sure. Activity level is heightened in fact, even more so than last night, up by about 10 to 15 percent. I want to show you what is happening here live because this is an active volcano and there's nothing better to show you than a live picture. It is steaming right now. Smoke is coming out of the mouth of the crater. I'm also told that in the crater, there is a landslide that we are seeing at this moment. Of course lots is gurgling underneath warm magma and just about 12:15, almost right on time to what happened yesterday, a big puff of smoke shot up. But this one only lasted a couple of seconds.

Now, yesterday's eruption of steam had a lot more pressure. That happened a little bit before noon, shot straight up about 1600 feet into the sky. The area of concern is the glacier that is right behind the dome of the crater that acts sort of like a collar. It is about I'm told about several hundred feet of an expanse of deep blue ice that had separated from the crater and so much pressure had built up of steam, et cetera, that had to go somewhere, and it went up and out. Now seismologists and geologists are obviously tracking things very, very closely, because it is not over. The pressure is again building up. Some of that that released is still coming up. It's sort of, they say it's like a Coke bottle, that more bubbles kind of come up and they need to then go somewhere.

So there is magna down underneath, warm magma down underneath the earth and everybody is watching and waiting. These quakes that we are seeing, we are seeing about three to four earthquakes now a minute. Now typically, seismograms, you see a roll of white maybe with a little bit of blue. Now it is almost completely covered because there is so much activity. This all started just last Thursday when a usually dormant Mount St. Helens started waking up, rather a record since the last volcanic activity here in 1986. Geologists don't believe it would be anything to the magnitude of that in 1980 that eruption that killed 57 people. Andrea?

KOPPEL: Kimberly, we know that there hasn't been any lava that has come out as yet. Do they expect that there could be the possibility that that might happen in the days ahead?

OSIAS: They do, Andrea. They've talked about a hot warm, pasty magma. Not tantamount to what you would see at Kilauea. That would be more reddish and basalt type rocks. These are a little bit different, more pumice rocks and it would come out and then they believe that it would then spread slowly down but these are all hypotheses as to what is going on and they are going to do sort of best-guess predictions, comparing it to what has happened in the past. They're going to be gathering that data. As you had mentioned, Andrea, we are hoping to have another press conference to give us the latest very soon.

KOPPEL: That's right, well, for the first time in 18 years, I am sure there are lots of scientists and geologists who are studying this right now and Kimberly, you are watching it for us. Kimberly Osias, thank you from Mount St. Helens and we also want to let our viewers know that that press conference with geologists and scientists is going to happen at the half past.

Now to the presidential campaign. With about a month to go before the election, President Bush is campaigning hard in Ohio today and he's continuing his post debate attack on his Democratic opponent John Kerry. White House correspondent Suzanne Malveaux is traveling with the president and joins us from Cuyahoga Falls, did I pronounce that right, Suzanne?

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, Reporter: Cuyahoga Falls in Iowa. It's a very important state here. As you know, of course, this is the president's 27th visit here. He just won the state by 3.5 percent four years ago. They are taking nothing for granted. Really you find the southwestern part of the state has been Republican for decades, but they are making sure they've got every voter in his corner. As you know of course Cleveland is primarily Democratic. Cincinnati Republican, and Columbus very much geographically and politically in the middle. That is where the president was earlier today. He was emphasizing homeownership. He was talking about his economic plan, his domestic issues. But of course the president also focusing on Thursday's debate with the polls showing that Kerry being the clear winner, President Bush is punching much harder at what he is calling Kerry's inconsistencies on Iraq, specifically what he calls the Kerry doctrine. That is a reference that Kerry made to a global test, meeting some sort of global test before the U.S would carry out a preemptive military strike.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We'll continue working with our friends and allies for the sake of freedom and peace. But our national security decisions will be made in the oval office, not in foreign capitals.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MALVEAUX: Now the Kerry camp of course responding. They think that the president is trying to score new points in this debate, that he's trying to do a do over and they say that these kinds of remarks are very, they're inconsistent themselves and inaccurate. In the meantime, there are Democrat, the Democratic National Committee putting out its own ad, talking about how Ohio residents have suffered underneath President Bush's term. They are talking about some 237,000 Ohio residents who have lost their jobs under President Bush's watch. Andrea?

KOPPEL: Suzanne Malveaux in Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio. Did I get it right that time?

MALVEAUX: You got it.

KOPPEL: Thank you.

Campaigning in Florida today, John Kerry accused Mr. Bush of being quote, just plain stubborn. He says the president is ignoring what he calls, quote, the real war on terror. Our Frank Buckley is covering the Kerry campaign and brings us the latest now from Orlando.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Senator John Kerry critical of President Bush during a speech here, focusing on domestic policy and economic issues. Senator Kerry saying that President Bush has consistently favored special interests over the interests of middle class Americans. A speech delivered here at Freedom High School in Orlando, Senator Kerry using the same argument he used to try to frame the foreign policy debate on Thursday. And now, trying to use that argument to frame the domestic policy debates taking place on October 8th and 13th. That argument that President Bush can't fix problems, if he won't acknowledge they exist.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If you ask President Bush, he'd tell you that everything's just fine here at home. He'd tell you, this is the best economy in our lifetime. I mean, these are the things they've said. I'm not making this up. He says that maybe this is the best that we can do. Well, maybe that's true for his friends, Enron, Halliburton, for the big oil industry. But I'll tell you this, that's not true for the type of folks I've been meeting all around America who really build this country.

BUCKLEY: Senator Kerry did not address the comments coming from President Bush that Senator Kerry would seek the approval of the leaders from other countries to use military force. Senator Kerry's aides, however, saying that the senator made it very clear at the debate on Thursday that he would do whatever was necessary to protect the U.S., including using military force.

Strategists for Senator Kerry adding that President Bush is trying to get what they called a do over of Thursday's debate, using lines that he forgot to use on Thursday. They added, we've moved on. They're stuck in last week. Frank Buckley, CNN, Orlando, Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KOPPEL: Vice President Dick Cheney and vice presidential candidate John Edwards are also busy this weekend preparing for their debate on Tuesday. Our Elaine Quijano is at the White House with more. Elaine, you had some wonderful tidbits leading up to the first presidential debate. Do you have any idea as to how the two men are preparing?

ELAINE QUIJANO, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: We've got a little bit of color to pass along. As you can imagine, though, this is a serious process for both men as they get ready. They understand the stakes are really quite high in this, Andrea. But the vice presidential candidates basically are both keeping low profiles as they get ready for Tuesday's debate in Cleveland.

Now, first, vice president Dick Cheney, he's in Jackson, Wyoming where we understand from aides that he is scheduled to have several more practice debate sessions this weekend. And aides saying that he's getting some help from a stand-in for Senator John Edwards and that stand-in is Republican Congressman Rob Portman of Ohio. Now, Portman actually helped Mr. Cheney prepare four years ago by playing Senator Joe Lieberman. This time around, in order to get into his role, Portman has studied John Edwards' body language and his mannerisms. He's also watched Edwards' closing arguments at trial as well as the primary election debates.

Now, for his part, Senator Edwards is gearing up, we understand, in upstate New York by staging a dress rehearsal according to the campaign at a conference center in upstate New York. Now, the Kerry- Edwards campaign has actually re-created the debates, complete with television cameras. And the senator has a stand-in of his own, also a person who has done this before, Washington attorney Bob Barnett, playing the role of Dick Cheney, something that he did for Senator Lieberman in 2000.

Now, as for how long each candidate has been preparing, a Cheney aide says that weekend practice sessions really began in about mid- August and picking up, obviously, more recently. As for John Edwards, not sure exactly when formal debate preparations began, but certainly to be an interesting match up on Tuesday and we should point out that this will be a different feel to what we saw on Thursday, compared with what we saw then where it was two podiums. This will be a sit- down debate and the moderator will sit along with them so definitely different from what we have seen on Thursday. Andrea.

KOPPEL: And why is that? Why are they sitting rather than standing?

QUIJANO: That was the preference of Vice President Cheney, we understand. That was something that Senator Edwards didn't necessarily want but this is what they were able to come up with for an agreement and that's basically what they're going to do, have a sit-down format.

KOPPEL: Right, you figure Senator Edwards was somebody who was a trial lawyer used to standing in a courtroom. So anyway, well, thanks so much, Elaine.

QUIJANO: Sure.

KOPPEL: Elaine Quijano at the White House.

And you can watch the sparks fly when both men go head-to-head on Tuesday. CNN will bring you every question and every response as Cheney and Edwards square off from their -- for their first and only debate in Cleveland, Ohio. Count on CNN, the most trusted name in news for all your election coverage.

Well, you saw the disturbing pictures of Haiti during hurricane Ivan and Jeanne, and when we come back, CNN's Karl Penhaul is going to join us to take us behind the scenes and tell us what it is really like to live through a hurricane.

And in Iraq, school starts today.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

In Iraq, a tough U.S. military campaign aimed at regaining control of cities dominated by insurgents continues. In Fallujah, overnight air strikes targeted yet another site linked to terrorist Abu Musab al Zarqawi. Nine Iraqis were killed and a dozen wounded. Iraqi hospital sources say children were among the casualties.

In the city of Samarra, also in the Sunni triangle, sporadic fighting. A U.S. commander says fighting there has killed 125 insurgents and led to the capture of 88. 5,000 U.S. and Iraqi troops launched a surprised offensive in the city on Thursday. Fighting was also reported in Sadr City. Two Iraqi soldiers were wounded in a roadside bomb. Today is the first day of class for millions of Iraqi children, but as CNN's Brent Sadler reports, the security situation has many parents worried and scared.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRENT SADLER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Seven-year-old Efra Sami (ph) dresses up for the start of a new school year in Iraq, twice delayed by violence. "I love school," she says. It's where we learn. It's her second year of learning in the post-Saddam Hussein Iraq. 12 months ago, Efra was skipping to class. Her old school cordoned off by razor wire, guarded by an American tank. Efra's new school suffers similar problems to her last one.

But now it's the turn of Iraqi guards to stand watch. Hussein Hassan shows a leg wound from shrapnel he says he received from a rocket-propelled grenade fired into through wall into the school yard. We are here to protect the children from kidnapping, says Hassan and to help if there's a bomb attack. But guards claim they have to buy their own guns and bullets. And some parents fear insurgents or kidnappers might target the school. "I fear for my daughter," says Efra's mother Samira (ph). There's no security.

U.S. and Iraqi officials have made education a cornerstone of the new Iraq, pouring millions of dollars into teacher's salaries, textbooks and fixing schools. But so far this school has no basic textbooks for eager young minds to consume. They haven't arrived yet explains the head teacher to her new intake, perhaps next month. In the meantime, they'll recycle this discarded pile of worn out textbooks, purged of pictures of Saddam Hussein.

The system is slowly improving, though. Teachers, for example, get regular pay. Turn up for class and teach a curriculum when knowledge counts for more than loyalty to the regime. This school, says Efra Sami, is better than no school. I would start to cry, she says, because I love my school and the lessons she learns. Brent Sadler, CNN, Baghdad.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KOPPEL: Des priceline.com have anything to do with U.S. airlines being in trouble? Our guest ahead says airlines are dinosaurs. The question is, will they meet the same fate?

And then presidential politics, the outcome could rest with these yellow and blue lines. Meet the people behind the meters, an interview with the undecided group in Ohio. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KOPPEL: Many analysts believe the nation's major air carriers are flying into a period of unparalleled financial turbulence. They say a major shake-out is under way that may alter the very nature of the industry forever. CNN's Chris Huntington has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) CHRIS HUNTINGTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The major U.S. airlines have lost tens of billions of dollars in the last three years while a handful of upstart carriers have consistently turned to profit. Analysts and insiders agree a significant shake-out is just beginning.

BILL ROCHELLE, AIRLINE BANKRUPTCY LAWYER: Five years from now, we won't even recognize the industry compared to what it is today.

HUNTINGTON: Last weekend, U.S. Airways filed for bankruptcy for the second time in two years and many on Wall Street believe the carrier will not survive.

PHILIP BAGGALEY, AIRLINE DEBT ANALYST: It's more likely than not that US Airways will end up having top liquidate.

HUNTINGTON: United Airlines has operated under Chapter 11 for nearly two years. Delta's on the verge of bankruptcy and American, which barely avoided filing last year is still fairly profitable.

MARK GEACHICK, GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY: You're seeing the bulk of the industry really on the financial edge in terms of reorganization. Survival's really what we're talking about for this short-term transitional period.

HUNTINGTON: The problem for the big so-called legacy carriers is shedding the burdens of their own business model such as high labor costs, the hub and spoke root systems, the disappearance of the high fare business traveler, large fleets of many types of planes and costly ticketing through travel agents.

So-called low cost carriers just as Jetblue, Airtran and the pioneer Southwest Airlines are forcing fares down with lower labor and maintenance costs, simpler route systems, faster plane turnarounds and lower ticketing costs over the Internet. The next big shift in the industry could hinge on the fate of US Airways and its valuable gate properties in New York and in Washington, D.C.

ROCHELLE: If U.S. Air were to go out of business and those gates and slots at La Guardia and Reagan National were to be gobbled up by low-cost competition, the fare structure throughout the entire east coast and even spreading to other parts of the country would change dramatically and irrevocably.

HUNTINGTON: Lower ticket prices are obviously good for travelers, but analysts do not predict an entirely smooth transition to the airline industry of the future. They say many regional routes will be canceled and many jobs will be lost in the shuffle. Chris Huntington, CNN financial news, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KOPPEL: With the nation's major air carriers fly into so much financial turbulence, there is much at stake for both the airline industry and air travelers. Joining me to discuss the implications is Roben Farzad, a contributing writer for "Smart Money" magazine. He joins us now live from Boston. Robin, you know, there have been rumors for the last couple of years that for instance, the latest news being Delta being in financial trouble and might have to file for Chapter 11. Why should we be concerned that another airline would be filing Chapter 11?

ROBEN FARZAD, "SMART MONEY" MAGAZINE: Well, we should be concerned. Obviously there are tens of thousands -- hundreds of thousands of people employed by the major carriers. Delta alone has 70,000 people on its payrolls. And you can imagine a bankruptcy filing what that would do to a city like Atlanta where Delta is a major employer. So while this is painful news, it's important to remember that it's not new news. All the major carriers have been in this collective tug-of-war with their labor unions for the past three years to shake out cost savings, to try to reinvent themselves so they can be more svelte, leaner, meaner to compete with the Jetblues and Southwests of world.

KOPPEL: But now, I often hear that the Federal government comes in and bails these airlines out. Do you not think that that's going to happen this, this case? \ FARZAD: It's very controversial topic. There's a huge economic stability issue with regards to airlines. Obviously after 9/11, when the entire industry was paralyzed for a week and the fate of I guess the U.S. air transportation system, really was predicated on a bailout. The government did swoop in with a multibillion dollar loan guarantee package. Now, 9/11 is -- it's in the rearview mirror. I mean more than three years have past and the industry is trying to survive that body blow but it's no longer about 9/11. It's about the realities of air transportation changing. I mean business travel hasn't come back. You don't hear of people walking up to a counter and ponying up $2,000 for a cross-country ticket anymore.

KOPPEL: Sure don't.

FARZAD: A lot of these carriers are unable to pass that reality and move on.

KOPPEL: Roben Farzad, a contributing writer for "Smart Money" magazine. Thank so much for joining us from Boston.

FARZAD: Thank you Andrea.

KOPPEL: And we want to take you live now to a press conference that's already under way. This is with geologists and scientists studying the Mount St. Helens eruption.

TOM PIERSON, USGS GEOLOGIST: USGS colleagues teleconference and some of the thinking had changed that this high rate of energy release we'd been seeing in the earthquakes over the last, -- well, pretty much through the whole period, but really increasing here of late had led to a rethinking of the whole issue of why we aren't seeing new gas, the gas, the volcanic gas at the surface.

And after working together, our experts on volcanic gas, it concluded the most probable hypothesis was the reason we weren't was that this, the gas was being soaked up by ground water. The same ground water that's responsible for the steam burst that we saw yesterday. That being the case, they've rethought the probability of whether or not this fresh new magma's involved that might have more gas and therefore might make it more explosive when it does come to the surface.

The thinking now is there's at least a 50 percent chance, you know, 50 percent or greater chance that new magma is involved. And so we're look at the possibility of larger eruptions than we had been talking about previously. We don't yet have a handle on exactly how big. The Forest Service has decided to evacuate Johnston Ridge as a precaution and just asking folks to move smoothly down to a little bit safer spots.

QUESTION: Tom, you said earlier, worst case scenario would be three miles. We're sitting here at five miles. You're obviously thinking that it might go further than five miles.

PIERSON: Well, they're now thinking that is a possibility for some types of processes. It's still a fairly small possibility that things could reach this far, but it has this reanalysis of the data has upped the -- upped the level and increased the size of the potential hazard zone.

QUESTION: Are you at all concerned, standing at this point?

PIERSON: Well, I'm a little more concerned than I was before. We haven't -- we haven't decided whether or not we should evacuate this point or not, at this stage. We'll get some guidance what the Forest Service wants to do. And we're just watching it very closely.

(INAUDIBLE)

PIERSON: In terms, from the Forest Service, I would guess within the next hour or so.

QUESTION: Is there a chance that there is going to be an eruption, 70 percent leading up to Friday.

PIERSON: Right and there's a very good chance there's going to be an eruption. I can't put a number on it and from the harmonic tremor there's a good chance that it's going to involve magma at the surface.

QUESTION: Can you explain a little bit why you were saying that, first of all, you were looking for gases as an indication of a bigger explosion? And now the absense is convincing you of a bigger explosion?

PIERSON: Yes. It doesn't make sense at first, but the reason is, if you have no gases that could indicate old magma, which doesn't have gas. What has contradicted and caused a rethinking of that first hypothesis is the fact that we've had so much energy released in these earthquakes. And they've been fairly good sized earthquakes. That the gas experts are thinking that it's unlikely, with that much shaking and with that much cracking that there would be, we wouldn't be seeing gas. If the seal were -- in other words, I'm losing my train of thought, but that seal should have been broken by now by this much shaking and earthquakes. And so what -- the only other explanation of why we're not is that the ground is very wet, and we know it's very wet. We know we've had a lot of rain, and we know the ground is sitting right on top of a glacier that's melting at present. So that's kind of moved up into the position of the most likely hypothesis to explain why we are not seeing the gas.

QUESTION: Tom, earlier there was a definite debriefing in the morning. Is this more of the information on a scale of 1 to 5, yesterday was at 0, May 18 was at 5, they could expect up to a 2. Are you looking ag maybe a 3, or a 4 here? Can you talk to that scale at all?

PIERSON: Those are progressively larger scales of eruptions. Some numbers were thrown around. We are considering up to an index of 2, what's called a VEI of 2. Some very rough calculations. Things are changing really fast, so we've got a lot of guys sitting around writing on the backs of envelopes with hand calculators and that sort of thing.

QUESTION: What's the strongest quakes we've seen today?

PIERSON: I don't have information on the magnitudes of the quakes. But now that's, in a way, irrelevent, because the earthquakes have stopped. with that steam puff that occurred just after noon, the regular earthquakes stopped and we've moved into just pure tremor right now.

QUESTION: And what does that mean?

PIERSON: Pure tremor means that it's just recording the upward movement of magma.

QUESTION: And that is (UNINTELLIGIBLE) were saying earlier that the real problem with verticle explosive eruptions would be the (UNINTELLIGIBLE) earthquakes that push magma up. (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

PIERSON: Well the tremor indicates that it's moving up, but close to the surface now.

QUESTION: The tremor (UNINTELLIGIBLE) right now?

PIERSON: The tremor is constant. It's been constant since that puff of steam that we saw over an hour ago.

QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)

PIERSON: I don't know. Anywhere from that half a kilometer where the earthquake started, right up to just a very short distance below.

QUESTION: Are you now (UNINTELLIGIBLE) 1980?

PIERSON: No. We're no -- if we thought that was a strong possibility, there would nobody allowed here at all. We're just thinking now, it might be incrementally bigger than we were seeing before. And that puts Johnston Ridge at very slight risk for ash fall.

And the concern there -- and really, the reason why this is happening is that if the ash were to come out, if the ash were to come out, and if the wind were to shift slightly and send it this way, it tends to panic people. It can block out the light and it can get pretty dark. And it's much harder to drive. So the park service decided, better to do it now, while everything is clear. And just get people back a ways where it's certain to be a lot safer.

QUESTION: What about people down the mountain, at all?

PIERSON: This would be just this immediate area up around here.

QUESTION: What would have to happen -- an indication that you would want (UNINTELLIGIBLE) level 2? We're in the pattern, and all of a sudden, the tremors stop, or something like that, to earthquakes. What would possibly bring this back down to a level 2 from here?

PIERSON: If the tremors stopped, and magma did come to the surface, and then stopped coming out and everything quieted down, then we would probably go back to a level 2 at that point. But our level 3 indicates that we feel an eruption is imminent, or is in progress. Obviously, it's not yet in progress, so we're at that imminent stage.

QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)

PIERSON: Any time. Any time.

QUESTION: Level 3 indicates that (UNINTELLIGIBLE)

PIERSON: Well, I mean, it's all relative to what the risk is. And what we're saying is we still feel the risk is confined, really to this area right around the volcano. It's not a risk to people at much further distances out.

QUESTION: So, it could be at a level 3 (UNINTELLIGIBLE)

PIERSON: Right. The risk has to -- within any given level, your risk changes as to where you are on the ground relative to the position of the volaco, yes.

QUESTION: There's a 50 percent chance that there's new magma involved. Does that make it more unpredictable?

PIERSON: It does.

QUESTION: So, how are you able -- I mean, there's a 50 percent, how are you able to say that there's no risk beyond this point?

PIERSON: Well, we just -- it is, it is -- there is a big air bar here. But based on what we've seen, we have seen no evidence for a lot of magma being involved. But the fact that we now think there may be some fresh magma involved, still at the relatively confined amounts that we were thinking before, just makes it a bit more explosive and raises the potential for ash to get up a bit higher.

ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN ANCHOR: Mt. St. Helens, Washington. What we heard him warn, or actually, just before we got into that press conference, was Mr. Pierson saying that out of precautionary measures, they were going to be evacuating the Johnson Bridge Observatory, which is about five miles north of Mt. St. Helens. It's a prime location for tourists to look at the eruptions and observe it from a safe distance.

Now, more out of precaution, they're telling people to leave, because there is, according to Mr. Pierson, a 50 percent or greater chance that new magma could be involved. That is molten rock in the earth's crust. Basically, in a nutshell, there's a very good chance, he says, that there is going to be an eruption that's either imminent or in progress.

Despite indications of increased volcanic eruptions, CNN's Adaora Udoji reports now that this latest activity is nowhere near the cataclysmic force that the volcano produced back in 1980.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ADAORA UDOJI, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Last time, Mt. St. Helens erupted with cataclysmic force. It was 1980, the ash violently ejected spread so far and so wide it covered most of the Northwest and spread as far as the East Coast. Fifty-seven people died. Dozens of bridges were obliterated, and hundreds of homes demolished.

Avalanches of cinder and pumice gas saturated the air. Five hundred million tons of volcanic dust blew for hundreds of miles. Two hundred and fifty miles away, Spokane, Washington was plunged into darkness. Everything in between, from trees to wreckage, was covered with fine and not so fine layers of dust. It left sophisticated cities looking like the moon's landscape, the eruption so powerful it changed the shape of Mt. St. Helens.

Once 9,600 feet high, it survived at 8,300 feet. The volcano showed it was a force of nature never to be reckoned with. Adora Eudogy, CNN. New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KOPPEL: Well, from volcanoes to another natural disaster, hurricanes and the fallout from one that happened in our backyard. Up next, a look from behind the scenes in Haiti. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KOPPEL: More than two weeks after being ravaged by tropical storm Jeanne, Haiti is still scrambling to get back to normal. CNN's Karl Penhaul was one of the few reporters there during the storm and its aftermath, and he joins us now live from the CNN Center in Atlanta with a behind the scenes look.

Karl, this is a nation that is desperately poor. Seven million people. One of the things that struck me that you said earlier was that people were not crying, the people that you saw.

KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right. That was something that, when one sits and thinks about it -- and you said yourself, well, why was that, and the kind of conclusion that I came to was that people were, yes, suffering because they'd lost friends and they'd lost loved ones. But the most immediate need for them was to get on and try to survive the next few hours, the next few days to try and get their hands on some international food aid.

And in order to do that, they had to be on form, fighting even against neighbors and friends to get to the head of those lines and get some food for their families and for their children.

KOPPEL: Is it still that bad right now?

PENHAUL: We understand now, and even the last couple of days that we were there, just before we pulled out, then there was much more coordination between the international aid organizations, the United Nations, and the Haitian government. But still, a long way to go, especially taking into account that a lot of those survivors of the storm literally haven't eaten or had only eaten scraps in the week, 10 days since the storm at that stage.

So every hour, every day that you don't have food and you're that hungry is a long time.

KOPPEL: What are some of the things that will stay with you for a while, some of the images from behind the scenes?

PENHAUL: I think of the survivors, a 17-year-old boy. His name was Makison Josef (ph). He took us back to his home. We met him while he was having a psychological counseling session with the Med Sans Frontier (ph) Agency. He took us back to his home and told us how, at the height of the storm, he had swum out into raging floodwaters and saved his nine-year-old sister.

She clung to his neck, and he swum out into those raging floodwaters for about 30 minutes, paddling, holding onto debris... finally put his sister onto a tin roof. He climbed up too. And throughout the night, they sat there, watching dead bodies float by. He's traumatized by that. He has nightmares, and now, every night.

But the most dramatic thing there is every day when he opens up his eyes after having those nightmares, he faces another nightmare, and that nightmare is the grinding poverty that faces him every day.

KOPPEL: I remember being there in the early '90s, Karl, and very similar stories. It's just a tragic place, and we really appreciate your bringing us behind the scenes. Karl Penhaul in Atlanta.

Well, what do Mikhail Gorbachev, Robert Bork, and Walter Mondale have in common? Ronald Reagan, of course. And also, our former colleague and our guest in the next segment, Frank Sesno, who will be joining us after a quick break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) KOPPEL: Say the words "great communicator" and one name comes to mind, Ronald Wilson Reagan. The former president had a certain flair that appealed to the masses. Now that flair, in the form of his personal correspondence, is going on the auction block. Some letters Reagan wrote to friends and fellow conservative, and California Senator, George Murphy, are being sold.

Frank Sesno, a man who covered the Reagan years as a CNN White House correspondent joins us now to talk about the letters. Sesno is now a professor of public policy and communications at George Mason University. So I should refer to you now as Professor Sesno.

FRANK SESNO, FMR. CNN CORRESPONDET: No, no, don't go there.

(LAUGHTER)

KOPPEL: Frank, you feel that this is the wrong thing, for these very private letters to be sold.

SESNO: Well, I hate seeing things like this on the auction block to kind of go out there into the great beyond. You know, there's a great trove of letters, and really, the secret to Ronald Reagan's presidency lives in his letters. There's a great trove of letters at the Reagan Library. I'd like to see them all there so that scholars and those who are interested in the future can have access to these. These are the stories behind the stories.

KOPPEL: Speaking of which, we have some of these letters. The first one is about Mikhail Gorbachev and how "a leopard doesn't change its spots." Explain that.

SESNO: Well, one of the things that's very interesting in these letters is that Regan was a lot tougher and a lot more into detail in his letters than a lot of people thought, at the time, he was in his presidency. Point of fact is he was, and he had strong ideas, and these letters give a little edge to that otherwise affable exterior personality.

He says -- he's writing to his friend Murphy here -- he says it was worthwhile, this first summit with Gorbachev. They shook hands in Geneva, it was cold... I was there, you know. We were in the depths of the cold war there, and they had a very tough first meeting. And Gorbachev -- and I talked to Gorbachev about Reagan, and he referred to him, Reagan, as a dinosaur.

And it's funny, because in this letter, Reagan refers to Gorbachev as a leopard, and he says "the leopard doesn't change its spots." But still, he seems like he's serious, and maybe we can do business with him. He says, "I won't be able to change his mind, but maybe we can convince him there are some better ideas out there."

KOPPEL: The next letter, after Robert Bork was defeated, about his being the best nominee to come up for the Supreme Court in 50 years.

SESNO: You know what I really like about this letter is I remember after the Bork nomination went down -- and it was by far the most politicized Supreme Court justice nomination fight, confirmation fight we've seen. The Senate was brutal. It was led by Ted Kennedy. The liberals pounded on Bork as sort of an out there conservative, and his candidacy, his nomination failed.

We had an event, and Reagan was there, and we were in the press pool, and I asked him for his reaction to Bork. And sort of over his shoulder, the way he always did, he said, "I'll send them someone they object to just as much." And in this letter, he says -- and I'm reading from it -- "I promise you, he..." the next one... "will be as conservative as Judge Bork. There's no way I'd go for a touch of liberalism to win over the lynch mod."

And then, he scrawls down at the bottom, "P.S., just announced our nominee will be Circuit Judge Douglas Ginsberg. He's a good friend of Bork, a first class conservative." Well, Ginsberg was conservative, he was nominated. He also smoked marijuana in his youth, and the nomination was dropped.

KOPPEL: And the third letter, he took a potshot at the media, and he said that after the convention that there was too much favoritism to Mondale.

SESNO: Well, he has a couple of letters here where he takes aim at the Los Angeles Times and The New York Times. In one letter, he says, "I'm just like you. I'm dropping my subscription to the Los Angeles Times." Ronald Reagan was a conservative Republican who felt that the media were biased -- I mean, we've never heard that before, now, have we -- and were liberal, and were out to get him.

And, in fact, he had a very hostile reception, Reagan did, when he came to Washington, because it was commonly considered, in some media circles, and other elite circles, that Reagan wasn't up to the job intellectually, didn't have the background and experience. And he vents in these letters.

KOPPEL: How do you think that the former president would feel about these private correspondences ending up in someone's home rather than in his library?

SESNO: Well, he might shrug and say, "Well, there's the free enterprise system for you," or he might say, "It's a terrible thing and they should all be in my library." You know, he worked very hard. He and Mrs. Reagan worked very hard to set up the library. It's a very impressive library in Simi Valley. The late president was buried there, as you know.

And I hope that this kind of correspondence ends up there. You know, he wrote to everybody, Andrea. It's now known that he wrote literally thousands of letters while he was president. And each one of these letters, in its own way, provides a little insight. As I say, I think we're going to have -- because he was a mystery man -- I think we'll end up having a better view of what he and his presidency were like through the compilation of his writing and these letters than maybe we will have through some of the public events that we all saw. KOPPEL: And I think that one of the things that struck people since a lot of these letters have been published in recent years is the fact that he wrote each one individually.

SESNO: He wrote each one. Here's one in his own handwriting. This is... I love this, you know, because first of all, it shows Reagan -- and you can almost hear, it's like... he's talking about the film industry and the Screen Actors Guild, which was now, in this letter he wrote in 1990, headed by Ed Asner, so it was titling liberal activists.


Aired October 2, 2004 - 16:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: This hour on CNN, the airline industry. How will it look in six months? And how will it affect your lives. Ronald Reagan's letters up for sale. What did the former president really think of Mikhail Gorbachev? And we're asking the tough questions after that presidential debate. Who gets the most blinking award? How about the Al & Tipper Gore memorial kiss award? And finally, what was the sound you never heard? Jeanne Moos has her unique look at the presidential debate.
Hello, and welcome to CNN LIVE SATURDAY. I'm Andrea Koppel.

Here's what's happening now in the news. More smoke and belching is expected from Mount St. Helens. Scientists say yesterday's volcanic blast probably points to pressure building up again inside the mountain. We're expecting a news conference regarding the volcano in a few minutes and we'll bring it to you live when it happens.

The Department of Homeland Security is coming under fire for its handling of terrorist watch lists. In a report from its own inspector general, the department is described as having failed in its mission to consolidate such lists. There are 12 separate terrorists watch lists from nine different government agencies.

Sporadic fighting around Iraq today, witnesses say U.S. troops opened fire on insurgents after a car exploded by a U.S. military convoy near Fallujah. Fighting also persisted in the towns of Samarra and Sadr city, where American forces and Iraqi forces have launched a major offensive.

But we begin with rumblings at Mount St. Helens. The volcano is proving to be quite worrisome to geologists after spewing steam and ash in a spectacular display yesterday. Scientists are warning there's more to come. Small earthquakes are rattling in the area in Washington state again today. And our Kimberly Osias is there riding them out. So Kimberly, what are they expecting will happen in the next day or so?

KIMBERLY OSIAS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Andrea, things are not over here, that is for sure. Activity level is heightened in fact, even more so than last night, up by about 10 to 15 percent. I want to show you what is happening here live because this is an active volcano and there's nothing better to show you than a live picture. It is steaming right now. Smoke is coming out of the mouth of the crater. I'm also told that in the crater, there is a landslide that we are seeing at this moment. Of course lots is gurgling underneath warm magma and just about 12:15, almost right on time to what happened yesterday, a big puff of smoke shot up. But this one only lasted a couple of seconds.

Now, yesterday's eruption of steam had a lot more pressure. That happened a little bit before noon, shot straight up about 1600 feet into the sky. The area of concern is the glacier that is right behind the dome of the crater that acts sort of like a collar. It is about I'm told about several hundred feet of an expanse of deep blue ice that had separated from the crater and so much pressure had built up of steam, et cetera, that had to go somewhere, and it went up and out. Now seismologists and geologists are obviously tracking things very, very closely, because it is not over. The pressure is again building up. Some of that that released is still coming up. It's sort of, they say it's like a Coke bottle, that more bubbles kind of come up and they need to then go somewhere.

So there is magna down underneath, warm magma down underneath the earth and everybody is watching and waiting. These quakes that we are seeing, we are seeing about three to four earthquakes now a minute. Now typically, seismograms, you see a roll of white maybe with a little bit of blue. Now it is almost completely covered because there is so much activity. This all started just last Thursday when a usually dormant Mount St. Helens started waking up, rather a record since the last volcanic activity here in 1986. Geologists don't believe it would be anything to the magnitude of that in 1980 that eruption that killed 57 people. Andrea?

KOPPEL: Kimberly, we know that there hasn't been any lava that has come out as yet. Do they expect that there could be the possibility that that might happen in the days ahead?

OSIAS: They do, Andrea. They've talked about a hot warm, pasty magma. Not tantamount to what you would see at Kilauea. That would be more reddish and basalt type rocks. These are a little bit different, more pumice rocks and it would come out and then they believe that it would then spread slowly down but these are all hypotheses as to what is going on and they are going to do sort of best-guess predictions, comparing it to what has happened in the past. They're going to be gathering that data. As you had mentioned, Andrea, we are hoping to have another press conference to give us the latest very soon.

KOPPEL: That's right, well, for the first time in 18 years, I am sure there are lots of scientists and geologists who are studying this right now and Kimberly, you are watching it for us. Kimberly Osias, thank you from Mount St. Helens and we also want to let our viewers know that that press conference with geologists and scientists is going to happen at the half past.

Now to the presidential campaign. With about a month to go before the election, President Bush is campaigning hard in Ohio today and he's continuing his post debate attack on his Democratic opponent John Kerry. White House correspondent Suzanne Malveaux is traveling with the president and joins us from Cuyahoga Falls, did I pronounce that right, Suzanne?

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, Reporter: Cuyahoga Falls in Iowa. It's a very important state here. As you know, of course, this is the president's 27th visit here. He just won the state by 3.5 percent four years ago. They are taking nothing for granted. Really you find the southwestern part of the state has been Republican for decades, but they are making sure they've got every voter in his corner. As you know of course Cleveland is primarily Democratic. Cincinnati Republican, and Columbus very much geographically and politically in the middle. That is where the president was earlier today. He was emphasizing homeownership. He was talking about his economic plan, his domestic issues. But of course the president also focusing on Thursday's debate with the polls showing that Kerry being the clear winner, President Bush is punching much harder at what he is calling Kerry's inconsistencies on Iraq, specifically what he calls the Kerry doctrine. That is a reference that Kerry made to a global test, meeting some sort of global test before the U.S would carry out a preemptive military strike.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We'll continue working with our friends and allies for the sake of freedom and peace. But our national security decisions will be made in the oval office, not in foreign capitals.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MALVEAUX: Now the Kerry camp of course responding. They think that the president is trying to score new points in this debate, that he's trying to do a do over and they say that these kinds of remarks are very, they're inconsistent themselves and inaccurate. In the meantime, there are Democrat, the Democratic National Committee putting out its own ad, talking about how Ohio residents have suffered underneath President Bush's term. They are talking about some 237,000 Ohio residents who have lost their jobs under President Bush's watch. Andrea?

KOPPEL: Suzanne Malveaux in Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio. Did I get it right that time?

MALVEAUX: You got it.

KOPPEL: Thank you.

Campaigning in Florida today, John Kerry accused Mr. Bush of being quote, just plain stubborn. He says the president is ignoring what he calls, quote, the real war on terror. Our Frank Buckley is covering the Kerry campaign and brings us the latest now from Orlando.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FRANK BUCKLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Senator John Kerry critical of President Bush during a speech here, focusing on domestic policy and economic issues. Senator Kerry saying that President Bush has consistently favored special interests over the interests of middle class Americans. A speech delivered here at Freedom High School in Orlando, Senator Kerry using the same argument he used to try to frame the foreign policy debate on Thursday. And now, trying to use that argument to frame the domestic policy debates taking place on October 8th and 13th. That argument that President Bush can't fix problems, if he won't acknowledge they exist.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If you ask President Bush, he'd tell you that everything's just fine here at home. He'd tell you, this is the best economy in our lifetime. I mean, these are the things they've said. I'm not making this up. He says that maybe this is the best that we can do. Well, maybe that's true for his friends, Enron, Halliburton, for the big oil industry. But I'll tell you this, that's not true for the type of folks I've been meeting all around America who really build this country.

BUCKLEY: Senator Kerry did not address the comments coming from President Bush that Senator Kerry would seek the approval of the leaders from other countries to use military force. Senator Kerry's aides, however, saying that the senator made it very clear at the debate on Thursday that he would do whatever was necessary to protect the U.S., including using military force.

Strategists for Senator Kerry adding that President Bush is trying to get what they called a do over of Thursday's debate, using lines that he forgot to use on Thursday. They added, we've moved on. They're stuck in last week. Frank Buckley, CNN, Orlando, Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KOPPEL: Vice President Dick Cheney and vice presidential candidate John Edwards are also busy this weekend preparing for their debate on Tuesday. Our Elaine Quijano is at the White House with more. Elaine, you had some wonderful tidbits leading up to the first presidential debate. Do you have any idea as to how the two men are preparing?

ELAINE QUIJANO, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: We've got a little bit of color to pass along. As you can imagine, though, this is a serious process for both men as they get ready. They understand the stakes are really quite high in this, Andrea. But the vice presidential candidates basically are both keeping low profiles as they get ready for Tuesday's debate in Cleveland.

Now, first, vice president Dick Cheney, he's in Jackson, Wyoming where we understand from aides that he is scheduled to have several more practice debate sessions this weekend. And aides saying that he's getting some help from a stand-in for Senator John Edwards and that stand-in is Republican Congressman Rob Portman of Ohio. Now, Portman actually helped Mr. Cheney prepare four years ago by playing Senator Joe Lieberman. This time around, in order to get into his role, Portman has studied John Edwards' body language and his mannerisms. He's also watched Edwards' closing arguments at trial as well as the primary election debates.

Now, for his part, Senator Edwards is gearing up, we understand, in upstate New York by staging a dress rehearsal according to the campaign at a conference center in upstate New York. Now, the Kerry- Edwards campaign has actually re-created the debates, complete with television cameras. And the senator has a stand-in of his own, also a person who has done this before, Washington attorney Bob Barnett, playing the role of Dick Cheney, something that he did for Senator Lieberman in 2000.

Now, as for how long each candidate has been preparing, a Cheney aide says that weekend practice sessions really began in about mid- August and picking up, obviously, more recently. As for John Edwards, not sure exactly when formal debate preparations began, but certainly to be an interesting match up on Tuesday and we should point out that this will be a different feel to what we saw on Thursday, compared with what we saw then where it was two podiums. This will be a sit- down debate and the moderator will sit along with them so definitely different from what we have seen on Thursday. Andrea.

KOPPEL: And why is that? Why are they sitting rather than standing?

QUIJANO: That was the preference of Vice President Cheney, we understand. That was something that Senator Edwards didn't necessarily want but this is what they were able to come up with for an agreement and that's basically what they're going to do, have a sit-down format.

KOPPEL: Right, you figure Senator Edwards was somebody who was a trial lawyer used to standing in a courtroom. So anyway, well, thanks so much, Elaine.

QUIJANO: Sure.

KOPPEL: Elaine Quijano at the White House.

And you can watch the sparks fly when both men go head-to-head on Tuesday. CNN will bring you every question and every response as Cheney and Edwards square off from their -- for their first and only debate in Cleveland, Ohio. Count on CNN, the most trusted name in news for all your election coverage.

Well, you saw the disturbing pictures of Haiti during hurricane Ivan and Jeanne, and when we come back, CNN's Karl Penhaul is going to join us to take us behind the scenes and tell us what it is really like to live through a hurricane.

And in Iraq, school starts today.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

In Iraq, a tough U.S. military campaign aimed at regaining control of cities dominated by insurgents continues. In Fallujah, overnight air strikes targeted yet another site linked to terrorist Abu Musab al Zarqawi. Nine Iraqis were killed and a dozen wounded. Iraqi hospital sources say children were among the casualties.

In the city of Samarra, also in the Sunni triangle, sporadic fighting. A U.S. commander says fighting there has killed 125 insurgents and led to the capture of 88. 5,000 U.S. and Iraqi troops launched a surprised offensive in the city on Thursday. Fighting was also reported in Sadr City. Two Iraqi soldiers were wounded in a roadside bomb. Today is the first day of class for millions of Iraqi children, but as CNN's Brent Sadler reports, the security situation has many parents worried and scared.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRENT SADLER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Seven-year-old Efra Sami (ph) dresses up for the start of a new school year in Iraq, twice delayed by violence. "I love school," she says. It's where we learn. It's her second year of learning in the post-Saddam Hussein Iraq. 12 months ago, Efra was skipping to class. Her old school cordoned off by razor wire, guarded by an American tank. Efra's new school suffers similar problems to her last one.

But now it's the turn of Iraqi guards to stand watch. Hussein Hassan shows a leg wound from shrapnel he says he received from a rocket-propelled grenade fired into through wall into the school yard. We are here to protect the children from kidnapping, says Hassan and to help if there's a bomb attack. But guards claim they have to buy their own guns and bullets. And some parents fear insurgents or kidnappers might target the school. "I fear for my daughter," says Efra's mother Samira (ph). There's no security.

U.S. and Iraqi officials have made education a cornerstone of the new Iraq, pouring millions of dollars into teacher's salaries, textbooks and fixing schools. But so far this school has no basic textbooks for eager young minds to consume. They haven't arrived yet explains the head teacher to her new intake, perhaps next month. In the meantime, they'll recycle this discarded pile of worn out textbooks, purged of pictures of Saddam Hussein.

The system is slowly improving, though. Teachers, for example, get regular pay. Turn up for class and teach a curriculum when knowledge counts for more than loyalty to the regime. This school, says Efra Sami, is better than no school. I would start to cry, she says, because I love my school and the lessons she learns. Brent Sadler, CNN, Baghdad.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KOPPEL: Des priceline.com have anything to do with U.S. airlines being in trouble? Our guest ahead says airlines are dinosaurs. The question is, will they meet the same fate?

And then presidential politics, the outcome could rest with these yellow and blue lines. Meet the people behind the meters, an interview with the undecided group in Ohio. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KOPPEL: Many analysts believe the nation's major air carriers are flying into a period of unparalleled financial turbulence. They say a major shake-out is under way that may alter the very nature of the industry forever. CNN's Chris Huntington has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) CHRIS HUNTINGTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The major U.S. airlines have lost tens of billions of dollars in the last three years while a handful of upstart carriers have consistently turned to profit. Analysts and insiders agree a significant shake-out is just beginning.

BILL ROCHELLE, AIRLINE BANKRUPTCY LAWYER: Five years from now, we won't even recognize the industry compared to what it is today.

HUNTINGTON: Last weekend, U.S. Airways filed for bankruptcy for the second time in two years and many on Wall Street believe the carrier will not survive.

PHILIP BAGGALEY, AIRLINE DEBT ANALYST: It's more likely than not that US Airways will end up having top liquidate.

HUNTINGTON: United Airlines has operated under Chapter 11 for nearly two years. Delta's on the verge of bankruptcy and American, which barely avoided filing last year is still fairly profitable.

MARK GEACHICK, GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY: You're seeing the bulk of the industry really on the financial edge in terms of reorganization. Survival's really what we're talking about for this short-term transitional period.

HUNTINGTON: The problem for the big so-called legacy carriers is shedding the burdens of their own business model such as high labor costs, the hub and spoke root systems, the disappearance of the high fare business traveler, large fleets of many types of planes and costly ticketing through travel agents.

So-called low cost carriers just as Jetblue, Airtran and the pioneer Southwest Airlines are forcing fares down with lower labor and maintenance costs, simpler route systems, faster plane turnarounds and lower ticketing costs over the Internet. The next big shift in the industry could hinge on the fate of US Airways and its valuable gate properties in New York and in Washington, D.C.

ROCHELLE: If U.S. Air were to go out of business and those gates and slots at La Guardia and Reagan National were to be gobbled up by low-cost competition, the fare structure throughout the entire east coast and even spreading to other parts of the country would change dramatically and irrevocably.

HUNTINGTON: Lower ticket prices are obviously good for travelers, but analysts do not predict an entirely smooth transition to the airline industry of the future. They say many regional routes will be canceled and many jobs will be lost in the shuffle. Chris Huntington, CNN financial news, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KOPPEL: With the nation's major air carriers fly into so much financial turbulence, there is much at stake for both the airline industry and air travelers. Joining me to discuss the implications is Roben Farzad, a contributing writer for "Smart Money" magazine. He joins us now live from Boston. Robin, you know, there have been rumors for the last couple of years that for instance, the latest news being Delta being in financial trouble and might have to file for Chapter 11. Why should we be concerned that another airline would be filing Chapter 11?

ROBEN FARZAD, "SMART MONEY" MAGAZINE: Well, we should be concerned. Obviously there are tens of thousands -- hundreds of thousands of people employed by the major carriers. Delta alone has 70,000 people on its payrolls. And you can imagine a bankruptcy filing what that would do to a city like Atlanta where Delta is a major employer. So while this is painful news, it's important to remember that it's not new news. All the major carriers have been in this collective tug-of-war with their labor unions for the past three years to shake out cost savings, to try to reinvent themselves so they can be more svelte, leaner, meaner to compete with the Jetblues and Southwests of world.

KOPPEL: But now, I often hear that the Federal government comes in and bails these airlines out. Do you not think that that's going to happen this, this case? \ FARZAD: It's very controversial topic. There's a huge economic stability issue with regards to airlines. Obviously after 9/11, when the entire industry was paralyzed for a week and the fate of I guess the U.S. air transportation system, really was predicated on a bailout. The government did swoop in with a multibillion dollar loan guarantee package. Now, 9/11 is -- it's in the rearview mirror. I mean more than three years have past and the industry is trying to survive that body blow but it's no longer about 9/11. It's about the realities of air transportation changing. I mean business travel hasn't come back. You don't hear of people walking up to a counter and ponying up $2,000 for a cross-country ticket anymore.

KOPPEL: Sure don't.

FARZAD: A lot of these carriers are unable to pass that reality and move on.

KOPPEL: Roben Farzad, a contributing writer for "Smart Money" magazine. Thank so much for joining us from Boston.

FARZAD: Thank you Andrea.

KOPPEL: And we want to take you live now to a press conference that's already under way. This is with geologists and scientists studying the Mount St. Helens eruption.

TOM PIERSON, USGS GEOLOGIST: USGS colleagues teleconference and some of the thinking had changed that this high rate of energy release we'd been seeing in the earthquakes over the last, -- well, pretty much through the whole period, but really increasing here of late had led to a rethinking of the whole issue of why we aren't seeing new gas, the gas, the volcanic gas at the surface.

And after working together, our experts on volcanic gas, it concluded the most probable hypothesis was the reason we weren't was that this, the gas was being soaked up by ground water. The same ground water that's responsible for the steam burst that we saw yesterday. That being the case, they've rethought the probability of whether or not this fresh new magma's involved that might have more gas and therefore might make it more explosive when it does come to the surface.

The thinking now is there's at least a 50 percent chance, you know, 50 percent or greater chance that new magma is involved. And so we're look at the possibility of larger eruptions than we had been talking about previously. We don't yet have a handle on exactly how big. The Forest Service has decided to evacuate Johnston Ridge as a precaution and just asking folks to move smoothly down to a little bit safer spots.

QUESTION: Tom, you said earlier, worst case scenario would be three miles. We're sitting here at five miles. You're obviously thinking that it might go further than five miles.

PIERSON: Well, they're now thinking that is a possibility for some types of processes. It's still a fairly small possibility that things could reach this far, but it has this reanalysis of the data has upped the -- upped the level and increased the size of the potential hazard zone.

QUESTION: Are you at all concerned, standing at this point?

PIERSON: Well, I'm a little more concerned than I was before. We haven't -- we haven't decided whether or not we should evacuate this point or not, at this stage. We'll get some guidance what the Forest Service wants to do. And we're just watching it very closely.

(INAUDIBLE)

PIERSON: In terms, from the Forest Service, I would guess within the next hour or so.

QUESTION: Is there a chance that there is going to be an eruption, 70 percent leading up to Friday.

PIERSON: Right and there's a very good chance there's going to be an eruption. I can't put a number on it and from the harmonic tremor there's a good chance that it's going to involve magma at the surface.

QUESTION: Can you explain a little bit why you were saying that, first of all, you were looking for gases as an indication of a bigger explosion? And now the absense is convincing you of a bigger explosion?

PIERSON: Yes. It doesn't make sense at first, but the reason is, if you have no gases that could indicate old magma, which doesn't have gas. What has contradicted and caused a rethinking of that first hypothesis is the fact that we've had so much energy released in these earthquakes. And they've been fairly good sized earthquakes. That the gas experts are thinking that it's unlikely, with that much shaking and with that much cracking that there would be, we wouldn't be seeing gas. If the seal were -- in other words, I'm losing my train of thought, but that seal should have been broken by now by this much shaking and earthquakes. And so what -- the only other explanation of why we're not is that the ground is very wet, and we know it's very wet. We know we've had a lot of rain, and we know the ground is sitting right on top of a glacier that's melting at present. So that's kind of moved up into the position of the most likely hypothesis to explain why we are not seeing the gas.

QUESTION: Tom, earlier there was a definite debriefing in the morning. Is this more of the information on a scale of 1 to 5, yesterday was at 0, May 18 was at 5, they could expect up to a 2. Are you looking ag maybe a 3, or a 4 here? Can you talk to that scale at all?

PIERSON: Those are progressively larger scales of eruptions. Some numbers were thrown around. We are considering up to an index of 2, what's called a VEI of 2. Some very rough calculations. Things are changing really fast, so we've got a lot of guys sitting around writing on the backs of envelopes with hand calculators and that sort of thing.

QUESTION: What's the strongest quakes we've seen today?

PIERSON: I don't have information on the magnitudes of the quakes. But now that's, in a way, irrelevent, because the earthquakes have stopped. with that steam puff that occurred just after noon, the regular earthquakes stopped and we've moved into just pure tremor right now.

QUESTION: And what does that mean?

PIERSON: Pure tremor means that it's just recording the upward movement of magma.

QUESTION: And that is (UNINTELLIGIBLE) were saying earlier that the real problem with verticle explosive eruptions would be the (UNINTELLIGIBLE) earthquakes that push magma up. (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

PIERSON: Well the tremor indicates that it's moving up, but close to the surface now.

QUESTION: The tremor (UNINTELLIGIBLE) right now?

PIERSON: The tremor is constant. It's been constant since that puff of steam that we saw over an hour ago.

QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)

PIERSON: I don't know. Anywhere from that half a kilometer where the earthquake started, right up to just a very short distance below.

QUESTION: Are you now (UNINTELLIGIBLE) 1980?

PIERSON: No. We're no -- if we thought that was a strong possibility, there would nobody allowed here at all. We're just thinking now, it might be incrementally bigger than we were seeing before. And that puts Johnston Ridge at very slight risk for ash fall.

And the concern there -- and really, the reason why this is happening is that if the ash were to come out, if the ash were to come out, and if the wind were to shift slightly and send it this way, it tends to panic people. It can block out the light and it can get pretty dark. And it's much harder to drive. So the park service decided, better to do it now, while everything is clear. And just get people back a ways where it's certain to be a lot safer.

QUESTION: What about people down the mountain, at all?

PIERSON: This would be just this immediate area up around here.

QUESTION: What would have to happen -- an indication that you would want (UNINTELLIGIBLE) level 2? We're in the pattern, and all of a sudden, the tremors stop, or something like that, to earthquakes. What would possibly bring this back down to a level 2 from here?

PIERSON: If the tremors stopped, and magma did come to the surface, and then stopped coming out and everything quieted down, then we would probably go back to a level 2 at that point. But our level 3 indicates that we feel an eruption is imminent, or is in progress. Obviously, it's not yet in progress, so we're at that imminent stage.

QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)

PIERSON: Any time. Any time.

QUESTION: Level 3 indicates that (UNINTELLIGIBLE)

PIERSON: Well, I mean, it's all relative to what the risk is. And what we're saying is we still feel the risk is confined, really to this area right around the volcano. It's not a risk to people at much further distances out.

QUESTION: So, it could be at a level 3 (UNINTELLIGIBLE)

PIERSON: Right. The risk has to -- within any given level, your risk changes as to where you are on the ground relative to the position of the volaco, yes.

QUESTION: There's a 50 percent chance that there's new magma involved. Does that make it more unpredictable?

PIERSON: It does.

QUESTION: So, how are you able -- I mean, there's a 50 percent, how are you able to say that there's no risk beyond this point?

PIERSON: Well, we just -- it is, it is -- there is a big air bar here. But based on what we've seen, we have seen no evidence for a lot of magma being involved. But the fact that we now think there may be some fresh magma involved, still at the relatively confined amounts that we were thinking before, just makes it a bit more explosive and raises the potential for ash to get up a bit higher.

ANDREA KOPPEL, CNN ANCHOR: Mt. St. Helens, Washington. What we heard him warn, or actually, just before we got into that press conference, was Mr. Pierson saying that out of precautionary measures, they were going to be evacuating the Johnson Bridge Observatory, which is about five miles north of Mt. St. Helens. It's a prime location for tourists to look at the eruptions and observe it from a safe distance.

Now, more out of precaution, they're telling people to leave, because there is, according to Mr. Pierson, a 50 percent or greater chance that new magma could be involved. That is molten rock in the earth's crust. Basically, in a nutshell, there's a very good chance, he says, that there is going to be an eruption that's either imminent or in progress.

Despite indications of increased volcanic eruptions, CNN's Adaora Udoji reports now that this latest activity is nowhere near the cataclysmic force that the volcano produced back in 1980.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ADAORA UDOJI, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Last time, Mt. St. Helens erupted with cataclysmic force. It was 1980, the ash violently ejected spread so far and so wide it covered most of the Northwest and spread as far as the East Coast. Fifty-seven people died. Dozens of bridges were obliterated, and hundreds of homes demolished.

Avalanches of cinder and pumice gas saturated the air. Five hundred million tons of volcanic dust blew for hundreds of miles. Two hundred and fifty miles away, Spokane, Washington was plunged into darkness. Everything in between, from trees to wreckage, was covered with fine and not so fine layers of dust. It left sophisticated cities looking like the moon's landscape, the eruption so powerful it changed the shape of Mt. St. Helens.

Once 9,600 feet high, it survived at 8,300 feet. The volcano showed it was a force of nature never to be reckoned with. Adora Eudogy, CNN. New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KOPPEL: Well, from volcanoes to another natural disaster, hurricanes and the fallout from one that happened in our backyard. Up next, a look from behind the scenes in Haiti. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KOPPEL: More than two weeks after being ravaged by tropical storm Jeanne, Haiti is still scrambling to get back to normal. CNN's Karl Penhaul was one of the few reporters there during the storm and its aftermath, and he joins us now live from the CNN Center in Atlanta with a behind the scenes look.

Karl, this is a nation that is desperately poor. Seven million people. One of the things that struck me that you said earlier was that people were not crying, the people that you saw.

KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right. That was something that, when one sits and thinks about it -- and you said yourself, well, why was that, and the kind of conclusion that I came to was that people were, yes, suffering because they'd lost friends and they'd lost loved ones. But the most immediate need for them was to get on and try to survive the next few hours, the next few days to try and get their hands on some international food aid.

And in order to do that, they had to be on form, fighting even against neighbors and friends to get to the head of those lines and get some food for their families and for their children.

KOPPEL: Is it still that bad right now?

PENHAUL: We understand now, and even the last couple of days that we were there, just before we pulled out, then there was much more coordination between the international aid organizations, the United Nations, and the Haitian government. But still, a long way to go, especially taking into account that a lot of those survivors of the storm literally haven't eaten or had only eaten scraps in the week, 10 days since the storm at that stage.

So every hour, every day that you don't have food and you're that hungry is a long time.

KOPPEL: What are some of the things that will stay with you for a while, some of the images from behind the scenes?

PENHAUL: I think of the survivors, a 17-year-old boy. His name was Makison Josef (ph). He took us back to his home. We met him while he was having a psychological counseling session with the Med Sans Frontier (ph) Agency. He took us back to his home and told us how, at the height of the storm, he had swum out into raging floodwaters and saved his nine-year-old sister.

She clung to his neck, and he swum out into those raging floodwaters for about 30 minutes, paddling, holding onto debris... finally put his sister onto a tin roof. He climbed up too. And throughout the night, they sat there, watching dead bodies float by. He's traumatized by that. He has nightmares, and now, every night.

But the most dramatic thing there is every day when he opens up his eyes after having those nightmares, he faces another nightmare, and that nightmare is the grinding poverty that faces him every day.

KOPPEL: I remember being there in the early '90s, Karl, and very similar stories. It's just a tragic place, and we really appreciate your bringing us behind the scenes. Karl Penhaul in Atlanta.

Well, what do Mikhail Gorbachev, Robert Bork, and Walter Mondale have in common? Ronald Reagan, of course. And also, our former colleague and our guest in the next segment, Frank Sesno, who will be joining us after a quick break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) KOPPEL: Say the words "great communicator" and one name comes to mind, Ronald Wilson Reagan. The former president had a certain flair that appealed to the masses. Now that flair, in the form of his personal correspondence, is going on the auction block. Some letters Reagan wrote to friends and fellow conservative, and California Senator, George Murphy, are being sold.

Frank Sesno, a man who covered the Reagan years as a CNN White House correspondent joins us now to talk about the letters. Sesno is now a professor of public policy and communications at George Mason University. So I should refer to you now as Professor Sesno.

FRANK SESNO, FMR. CNN CORRESPONDET: No, no, don't go there.

(LAUGHTER)

KOPPEL: Frank, you feel that this is the wrong thing, for these very private letters to be sold.

SESNO: Well, I hate seeing things like this on the auction block to kind of go out there into the great beyond. You know, there's a great trove of letters, and really, the secret to Ronald Reagan's presidency lives in his letters. There's a great trove of letters at the Reagan Library. I'd like to see them all there so that scholars and those who are interested in the future can have access to these. These are the stories behind the stories.

KOPPEL: Speaking of which, we have some of these letters. The first one is about Mikhail Gorbachev and how "a leopard doesn't change its spots." Explain that.

SESNO: Well, one of the things that's very interesting in these letters is that Regan was a lot tougher and a lot more into detail in his letters than a lot of people thought, at the time, he was in his presidency. Point of fact is he was, and he had strong ideas, and these letters give a little edge to that otherwise affable exterior personality.

He says -- he's writing to his friend Murphy here -- he says it was worthwhile, this first summit with Gorbachev. They shook hands in Geneva, it was cold... I was there, you know. We were in the depths of the cold war there, and they had a very tough first meeting. And Gorbachev -- and I talked to Gorbachev about Reagan, and he referred to him, Reagan, as a dinosaur.

And it's funny, because in this letter, Reagan refers to Gorbachev as a leopard, and he says "the leopard doesn't change its spots." But still, he seems like he's serious, and maybe we can do business with him. He says, "I won't be able to change his mind, but maybe we can convince him there are some better ideas out there."

KOPPEL: The next letter, after Robert Bork was defeated, about his being the best nominee to come up for the Supreme Court in 50 years.

SESNO: You know what I really like about this letter is I remember after the Bork nomination went down -- and it was by far the most politicized Supreme Court justice nomination fight, confirmation fight we've seen. The Senate was brutal. It was led by Ted Kennedy. The liberals pounded on Bork as sort of an out there conservative, and his candidacy, his nomination failed.

We had an event, and Reagan was there, and we were in the press pool, and I asked him for his reaction to Bork. And sort of over his shoulder, the way he always did, he said, "I'll send them someone they object to just as much." And in this letter, he says -- and I'm reading from it -- "I promise you, he..." the next one... "will be as conservative as Judge Bork. There's no way I'd go for a touch of liberalism to win over the lynch mod."

And then, he scrawls down at the bottom, "P.S., just announced our nominee will be Circuit Judge Douglas Ginsberg. He's a good friend of Bork, a first class conservative." Well, Ginsberg was conservative, he was nominated. He also smoked marijuana in his youth, and the nomination was dropped.

KOPPEL: And the third letter, he took a potshot at the media, and he said that after the convention that there was too much favoritism to Mondale.

SESNO: Well, he has a couple of letters here where he takes aim at the Los Angeles Times and The New York Times. In one letter, he says, "I'm just like you. I'm dropping my subscription to the Los Angeles Times." Ronald Reagan was a conservative Republican who felt that the media were biased -- I mean, we've never heard that before, now, have we -- and were liberal, and were out to get him.

And, in fact, he had a very hostile reception, Reagan did, when he came to Washington, because it was commonly considered, in some media circles, and other elite circles, that Reagan wasn't up to the job intellectually, didn't have the background and experience. And he vents in these letters.

KOPPEL: How do you think that the former president would feel about these private correspondences ending up in someone's home rather than in his library?

SESNO: Well, he might shrug and say, "Well, there's the free enterprise system for you," or he might say, "It's a terrible thing and they should all be in my library." You know, he worked very hard. He and Mrs. Reagan worked very hard to set up the library. It's a very impressive library in Simi Valley. The late president was buried there, as you know.

And I hope that this kind of correspondence ends up there. You know, he wrote to everybody, Andrea. It's now known that he wrote literally thousands of letters while he was president. And each one of these letters, in its own way, provides a little insight. As I say, I think we're going to have -- because he was a mystery man -- I think we'll end up having a better view of what he and his presidency were like through the compilation of his writing and these letters than maybe we will have through some of the public events that we all saw. KOPPEL: And I think that one of the things that struck people since a lot of these letters have been published in recent years is the fact that he wrote each one individually.

SESNO: He wrote each one. Here's one in his own handwriting. This is... I love this, you know, because first of all, it shows Reagan -- and you can almost hear, it's like... he's talking about the film industry and the Screen Actors Guild, which was now, in this letter he wrote in 1990, headed by Ed Asner, so it was titling liberal activists.