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CNN Live Saturday

Hurricane Katrina Threatens Gulf Coast. Iraqi Officials Near Completion of Constitutional Draft Without Sunni Support. Reverend Jesse Jackson Visits President Hugo Chavez to Ease Tensions.

Aired August 27, 2005 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

KAYE: Unfolding this hour, the threat of Hurricane Katrina; already voluntary evacuations are under way. CNN is your hurricane headquarters. We'll get you up to speed on the very latest.
Uneasy in the Big Easy: New Orleans has dodged the bullet before, but what happens to the city if a major hurricane hits?

Also, the future of Iraq and unanswered questions about the long- stalled constitution. What challenges remain? This hour, a report from Baghdad.

Welcome to CNN LIVE SATURDAY. I'm Randi Kaye, in for Fredricka Whitfield. Those stories in a moment, but first, other headlines "Now in the News."

Almost one 1, 000 Iraqis held at Baghdad's notorious Abu Ghraib Prison are celebrating their freedom. They were released this week at the request of the Iraqi government. Officials with the U.S.-led coalition say all of the prisoners were accused of nonviolent crimes and all of them have renounced violence and pledged to be good citizens in a Democratic Iraq.

The American death toll in Afghanistan climbs again. A U.S. soldier was killed and four others wounded when their vehicle was struck by a roadside bomb. Fifteen American troops have lost their lives in Afghanistan this month.

Here in the United States, the Base Realignment and Closure Commission has wrapped up its hearings and the panel says it will deliver its report to President Bush on September 8th. The commission says its military downsizing recommendations will save $37 billion over two decades. Congress also gets to weigh in on the commission's recommendations.

ANNOUNCER: CNN, your Hurricane Headquarters.

KAYE: FEMA urges people along the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts to move inland now. Forecasters expect Hurricane Katrina to make land fall along the northern Gulf Coast sometime Monday.

Southeastern Louisiana and the city of New Orleans are under a hurricane watch. The city could face the biggest danger; much of it is at or below sea level. Let's go right to the CNN Weather Center. Meteorologist Jacqui Jeras has the very latest on Hurricane Katrina. Hi, Jacqui. JACQUI JERAS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Hi, Randi. Well, Katrina is holding kind of steady right now: 115 mile-per-hour winds. That makes it a category three hurricane. We are expect something additional strengthening over the next 24 hours or so and it is forecasted to become a category four hurricane -- that's with winds of 131 to 155 miles per hour -- before this thing makes land fall.

We think it is in the middle of what we call an eyewall replacement cycle and that's why we're seeing kind of a steady period now. We've even seen a drop in pressure over the last couple of hours. So, that's some good news. The more it drops, the better off we are, but I think it is extremely temporary.

Here we can still see the radar picture: Still some rain bands moving over the Florida Keys and some occasional firing up of these showers and thunderstorms can be expected on and off throughout the day over the Florida peninsula.

There are hurricane watches in effect right now from Morgan City, extending on over toward the Pearl River. We do expect this area to be expanded a little bit, probably when the 5:00 advisory comes in. So, be aware that they're likely going to be some change here and the main reason for the watch now right now, is just to alert people, particularly in the New Orleans area and the low-lying areas here across Louisiana, because it is a difficult place to evacuate.

There you can see the forecast track. Its current position, where it will be going and what it's going to be doing. It's moving almost due west right now. It is expected to take more of a West- northwesterly turn of the next 12 to 24 hours and then make its way on up toward the Gulf Coast.

We still do have a fair amount of uncertainty as to exactly where this is going. Make sure you take a look at the big area of red, not just that skinny little line -- that there still could be some changes in the forecast track and even just a couple of miles can make a very big difference of who's going to get the worst of the storm -- Randi?

KAYE: So far we have seen that this is a moody hurricane.

JERAS: Yes.

KAYE: All right. Thanks, Jacqui.

State and local officials in New Orleans are already urging people to follow evacuation orders and drive safely. Area interstates are open in both directions for now; that might change later today. Officials will decide whether to make all interstate traffic flow away from the city.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. KATHLEEN BLANCO (D), LOUISIANA: When the contraflow is in place, if indeed it's called for and we believe later this afternoon it would probably be justified, it's not going to make things as easy as some people might assume. It's going to mean that there are more cars moving along on our highways.

So, again, I'm urging people to be courteous, patient, drivers; to be very, very careful as you move along. Remember your goal, your goal is to be safe.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KAYE: So, how would you evacuate the city of New Orleans? Professor Brian Wolshon is with the LSU Hurricane Center. He is also a traffic flow expert in hurricane evacuation and joins us now by phone from Baton Rouge. Good to have you with us. Tell us, professor, what would be the first thing you would do right now in terms of getting this evacuation under way in New Orleans? What's top of the list?

BRIAN WOLSHON, LSU HURRICANE CENTER: Well, certainly the important thing is to have a plan and to know where you're going,; to do things like fuel up your car; to be ready and to review your -- the plans that have been put in place and to listen to what public officials are saying in and around both local areas.

As the governor said, you know, the plans that are in place are there to -- to move traffic as well as it can be moved. It is another thing as far as you being able to go exactly where you want and when you want -- when you're trying to move that many people, sometimes those decisions become a little bit more difficult.

KAYE: And New Orleans has been described as, I guess, sort of a soup bowl with about 100,000 people there with nowhere to go. It has water on three sides. All of this certainly complicates things.

WOLSHON: Absolutely. If you look at the geography of New Orleans, like you said, it is surrounded by water on all sides. The other difficulty is that it has a limited number of roads that are high capacity to move the number of people that need to get out of the New Orleans and south Louisiana area.

If you look at the plans that have been developed by the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Louisiana State Police, basically those plans are to maximize the outgoing flow using the road network that's available. And that's what the governor talked about when she referred to the concept of contraflow.

KAYE: Right. This idea of contraflow and sort of reversing the direction and heading all of the traffic out of the state of Louisiana, out of the New Orleans area. How is something like this put into place? I mean, this just seems very, very complicated, having to close down exits and entry ramps. How is something like this actually put into place?

WOLSHON: Well, certainly it is difficult, but it's not something that -- the plans have not been developed overnight. This is something that has evolved over probably a five-year period. And the state officials have been -- this has been studied.

We've modeled it here at LSU and it is a situation where they get -- various state agencies are prepared. The state police, the DOP. And what they'll do is they will barricade certain exits. They will get traffic control plans into place well in advance and they will start implementing those things, sort of almost in a phased pattern where one direction will be cleared before the other direction starts.

KAYE: How do you enforce it, though? How do you alert the people heading to Louisiana?

WOLSHON: Well, the people -- at this point you really don't want to be heading to Louisiana. The goal of this, don't forget is to save lives; is to get people moving out. Certainly people will be heading this way. There is traffic that flows east and west across the Gulf all the time.

However, in a situation like this, such as an emergency where lives are at stake, some of those issues might become a little bit more secondary and traffic might -- travelers along that route may be inconvenienced a little bit and have to take alternate routes as we move people out of the south Louisiana area.

KAYE: All right, Professor Brian Wolshon, the LSU Hurricane Center expert, thank you very much for your time today.

Katrina was only a category one hurricane when it slammed into South Florida two days ago, but it still packed a deadly punch. The storm is blamed for at least seven deaths in Florida.

It drenched parts of the state with some 18 inches of rain; causing something serious flooding problems in Miami and some other areas. Today parts of South Florida are still without drinking water and ice and chain saws are buzzing across the region as crews work to get the power back on.

Earlier today up to 800,000 customers were still without electricity. Along with the damage and destruction, a story of survival. A couple in their three children were reported missing after they went sailing as Hurricane Katrina approached. The Coast Guard found the family unharmed, believe it or not, yesterday on a mangrove island at the tip of Florida.

ANNOUNCER: Keep watching CNN, your hurricane headquarters.

KAYE: Uneasy in the Big Easy: If Hurricane Katrina hits New Orleans what will happen to this city that sits below the sea? Our coverage of Hurricane Katrina continues.

Plus, war protesters and President Bush supporters are making their voices heard today in Crawford, Texas. We'll get a live report on the dualing rallies.

And is it over for John Gotti, Jr.? An interesting week in court as a blood brother turns against him. It is on the docket today for our "Legal Eagles" ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) KAYE: It is a day in search of compromise for negotiators in Iraq trying to write a draft constitution. They're still hoping to reach an agreement before the national assembly meets tomorrow. CNN's Aneesh Raman has more from Baghdad.

ANEESH RAMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Almost two week since the first constitutional deadline and it is the same question confronting Iraqi leaders. Will this process end with comprise or confrontation. On Saturday, a last ditch effort by the Shia/Kurd coalition to bridge deep divides with the Sunni minority.

HAJIM AL-HASSANI, IRAQI NATL. ASSEMBLY SPEAKER (through translator): Agreement has been reached between the Kurdish coalition and the Shia alliance accepting the suggestions of the Sunnis. It will be announced in parliament tomorrow.

RAMAN: The new draft sidelines details on Federalism, appeasing Sunni demands, leaving the Kurds with their autonomous region in the north. It also sidelines another Sunni concern, specifics on de- baathifiction. What to do with the former members of Saddam's regime and with the Baath party. Saturday conferring among themselves, the Sunnis were deciding if this was a deal worth taking. But for some negotiators, it is already too late.

SALEH MUTLAG, SUNNI NEGOTIATOR (through translator): The situation is not balanced. We came here on the basis that there is a compromise but it does not exist. They bypass the constitution on the national assembly without any comprising.

RAMAN: The government says the only looming legal deadline now is October 15th, by when a national referendum must take place. In the interim, the Shia/Kurd coalition will try everything to get everyone on board. Especially the Sunnis. This is why in Baqubah on Friday, thousands of Iraqis in the majority Sunni area. pouring on to the streets saying no to federalism. With such sentiment and with the urging of their political leaders, the Sunnis, as well as some Shia, could vote down the constitutional referendum forcing the national assembly to be dissolved and the political process to start from scratch. With the likelihood of only reaching this same point again, next year.

(on camera): The speaker says with the national assembly set to convene Sunday will be a crucial day. And Shia negotiators are calling this the end of the road, suggesting a conclusion to this process long stalled, may now be at hand. But in Iraqi politics, anything can happen. And it usually does in the 11 hour. Aneesh Raman, CNN, Baghdad.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KAYE: Scores of anti-war protesters and supporters of President Bush's Iraq policy are making their voices heard this afternoon. CNN's Ed Lavendera is in Crawford, Texas, with an update. Ed, how many people are out there today?

ED LAVENDERA, CNN CORRESPONDEENT: Randi, I think it's safe to say we've probably got about a thousand people who have poured into Crawford to protest on every side of this debate. And this is just one of the locations. There are probably three or four locations in the small town of Crawford where these protests and vigils, what have you, these reallies are going on throughout the weekend. This is what is considered to be Camp Casey on this side, which is supporters of Cindy Sheehan,who has been here going on three weeks now.

And then, just across the street from them, literally, are the pro-Bush supporters who have set up camp just along the side of the road here. They're calling this area Camp Reality. So we've got dueling camps all over town. There's already been two arrests at this particular location. Heavy security presence here this morning and this afternoon. The authorities will remain here throughout the day. They're really trying to keep a tight leash on just how much bantering goes back and forth, trying to make sure this does not turn violent in any kind of way. So we have already seen two arrests for people disobeying the orders of the officers.

Basically they've got people entrenched on either side. So if you're a supporter of Cindy Sheehan, you're basically confined to one area here where you're not suppose to be leaving the area. And what they're really trying to do is to prevent from both sides from getting too close to each other. So these rallies were expected to continue throughout the day. A caravan of President Bush supporters arrived and they're holding the rally in town.

And you can kind of sense this is kind of the scene we have seen throughout the day, they're just yelling constantly back and forth at each other at each other. We'll let you listen a little bit. And of course the authorities there in the middle making sure this does not get out of hand.

It is extremely hot here today. Easily over 100 degrees. And authorities are hoping that this actually goes a long way and jsut making everybody exhausted and they're hoping that tempers will remain calm and hopefully people just get tired out, quite frankly.

KAYE: Ed, I'm just curious about the numbers on both sides. Are the numbers fairly even?

LAVENDERA: Probably. I've been kind of confined to this one area. We know that there are a lot of supporters at the Cindy Sheehan vigil that is just up the road as well. But there are, you know, kind of just our estimations, but it does appear to be probably a good number of supporters on each side.

KAYE: Certainly making their voices heard. All right. Ed Lavendera, thank you, reporting from Crawford.

More on our top story, Hurricane Katrina ahead. The storm is currently churning away in the Gulf. But if it happens to hit New Orleans, what will happen to the city that sits below sea level?

Plus, Jesse Jackson is headed to Venezuela to meet with President Hugo Chavez. What he has to say about that meeting next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KAYE: Some low lying parishes in the southern most Louisiana are under a mandatory evacuation order at this hour. As Hurricane Katrina churns its way toward the coast for a predicted second landfall. Forecasters say the storm could escalate to a Category 4 hurricane by Monday, bringing winds in excess of 140 miles an hour. More people along the coast are being told to get ready to head inland.

People in Mississippi are also keeping an eye on Katrina. They too could feel some of the hurricane's blunt force, even if the storm makes landfall in Southern Louisiana. Robert Latham is the director of the Mississippi Emergency Management in Jackson. And he joins us now by phone. Robert, why don't you tell us what preparations are under way there in Jackson?

ROBERT LATHAM, DIR., MISSISSIPPI EMERGENCY MGMT.: Randi, we're working with our counties on the coast to recommend our citizens, especially on the coast and even several counties inland, to begin an evacuation now. We're working with the state of Louisiana to support a contraflow on I-55 as well as I-59, preparing to open up shelters. We're also preparing to send search and rescue resources forward to pre-stage them. There are FEMA liaison teams in place. Right now we're just hoping and praying that the citizens of our state will heed at these warnings and evacuate early so that they do not get caught on the evacuation routes when this storm makes landfall.

KAYE: Let's talk about voluntary versus mandatory evacuation. When does it become mandatory?

LATHAM: Well actually, Randi, when certainly, local officials feel like it's at the point and everything has been done from the standpoint of voluntary or recommended, and that we realize citizens are not heeding those warnings, then it becomes mandatory. Certainly we don't have the law enforcement resources to enforce that. But it adds a little bit of urgency to it. But we know from experience that if people leave at their own leisure, they will be able to get out in time and seek safe shelter before a storm like this makes landfall.

KAYE: Many people will never forget Hurricane Camille back in 1969 slamming the Gulf coast, killing -- taking the lives of 256 people. How concern ready you about a repeat performance?

LATHAM: Ever since I've been in this I've been very concerned. I keep a book on my desk about Hurricane Camille. Every year I attend a memorial service down there. And I vow to do everything I can for the citizens of this state to prepare for this type of event. I only hope it has been enough and I hope the citizens will certainly remember that, and will heed these warnings, and get out of harm's way so that we do not have to go through something like Hurricane Camille again.

KAYE: From what I've been reading a lot of folks from Louisiana are heading to Mississippi looking for hotels, heading inland, looking for places to stay. Any idea what the situation is there? I would imagine a lot of those places are sold out. LATHAM: Absolutely. And if you remember during Ivan last year, we had basically a four state evacuation. Many of those evacuees came to Mississippi. At the time we had about 70,000 shelter spaces available. But at the peak of the evacuation of four states, we only had about 20,000 people in shelters. Governor Barbara at that time said open up your homes to your friends, your relatives, former classmates, anybody. And I think the citizens of Mississippi did that and I'm certain that they will do it again.

KAYE: Robert, I was in the peak of Hurricane Dennis back in July. And I remember you had some concerns about evacuations back then, that you were concerned that people weren't exactly heeding the effort. I know you've taken a survey recently. And it sounds like a lot of people don't want to evacuate.

LATHAM: Absolutely. Randi, that survey revealed people were storm weary they just -- one good thing I think that came out of the survey, they said they didn't evacuate because the projections never showed it hitting our Gulf Coast. Well this is certainly a different situation this time. And we hope that our citizens will heed these warnings and realize that this is a very serious storm and we're certainly on the worst side of that. And we hope that all of our preparations will pay off.

KAYE: Best of luck to you. We hope so as well. Robert Latham joining us from the director of Mississippi Emergency Management in Jackson. Thank you.

ANNOUNCER: Keep watching CNN, your Hurricane Headquarters.

KAYE: The Reverend Jesse Jackson is heading to Venezuela this afternoon to meet with President Hugo Chavez. Before leaving, Jackson told CNN he will try to cool down the rhetoric started this week when Christian broadcaster Pat Robertson called for Chavez to be assassinated.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REV. JESSE JACKSON, RAINBOW/PUSH COALITION: First of all, to let them know the politics of assassination is illegal and we accept that. And that rhetoric must cool between our nation and his nation. We need each other. I mean the largest producer of petroleum in this hemisphere is Venezuela. We need them and they need us. I shall be a focus on pro-democracy and human rights and a greater strength on wealth among the resources and people who are poor. So I'm going to meet with him and religious leaders.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KAYE: Robertson has since apologized for his remark and says they were misinterpreted.

In this week's round of recommended base closings, several states managed to duck the ax. But South Dakota came out the clear winner. The Pentagon was no match for politics when it came to retaining Ellsworth Air Force Base, home to the B-1 Bomber. CNN's congressional correspondent Ed Henry explains how the Defense Department was outmaneuvered.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ED HENRY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): As he waited for the verdict, Republican John Thune was a bundle of nervous energy.

SEN. JOHN THUNE, (R) SOUTH DAKOTA: It's exhausting, you know, emotionally. We've been out for the last three months and been working virtually night and day to get our arguments and our case in front of these BRAC commissioners.

HENRY: Economic anxiety because Ellsworth Air Force Base, South Dakota's second largest employer, was on the Base Closure Commission's hit list.

THUNE: Two hundred and seventy eight million dollar annual economic impact. The entire -- all of Western South Dakota would have been setback 25 years had this gone down.

HENRY: But also political anxiety. Last year Thune beat Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle, in part because Republicans vowed a Thune victory would ensure White House protection of Ellsworth. Thune was stunned in the spring when the Bush administration put Ellsworth on the chopping block.

THUNE: We were surprised when Ellsworth ended up on the list. We had been hopeful it wouldn't. And obviously my preference would have been that the administration would have perhaps intervened in some fashion.

HENRY: A myth Thune stopped raising campaign money for fellow Republicans, a not so subtle signal to the White House. And he forged an unlikely alliance with a rival, Democratic Senator Tim Johnson. The duo launched a desperate lobbying effort, and it paid off. Republicans had been whispering Thune's political credibility was on the line. So he basked in the victory and tried to put the White House friction behind him.

THUNE: Politics is politics. It's a tough business.

HENRY (on camera): The plan crafted here by the Base Closure Commission still has to be approved by President Bush and Congress. But Thune is confident both will do so. Ed Henry, CNN, Arlington, Virginia.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KAYE: Hurricane Katrina becoming stronger by the minute. This storm is churning in the Gulf. Where is it headed? The latest information next.

Plus, New Orleans has been lucky before. But what happens to the city below sea level if it is hit by a hurricane? When CNN LIVE SATURDAY returns.

ANNOUNCER: Keep watching CNN, your Hurricane Headquarters.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KAYE: A powerful hurricane appears to be setting its sights on the Central Gulf Coast. Katrina is growing stronger as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico. Right now, a hurricane watch is in place for Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mississippi state line.

And the call has gone out for mandatory and voluntary evacuations in some low-lying parishes in the state of Louisiana.

In Iraq, compromise is the key word as negotiators keep up their attempt to hammer out a draft constitution. Shiite negotiators now say they plan to go to the voters in October with a compromise draft, even if they can't reach a meeting of the minds with the Sunni counterparts. But they're still hoping for an agreement before the traditional National Assembly convenes tomorrow.

As President Bush continues his working vacation at his ranch in Crawford, Texas, protesters are gathering nearby. Demonstrators opposed to the war in Iraq and supporters of President Bush are holding rallies today.

ANNOUNCER: CNN, your hurricane headquarters.

KAYE: We are keeping a close watch on Hurricane Katrina, as the category three storm moves closer to the western Gulf Coast. Katrina is predicted to make its second landfall Monday, on the shores of Mississippi or Louisiana with winds topping 140 miles an hour. CNN Meteorologist Jacqui Jeras is tracking the storm and joins us now from the weather center.

JERAS: Hi, Randi. We it's about 390 miles away from the mouth of the Mississippi River. So, we still have a ways to go before this makes landfall and that gives us time to prepare what you need to start thinking about doing. We're looking at some rain still going on across parts of Florida.

So, we still haven't gotten rid of it yet for some parts of Florida before we even begin to think about what is going on up here across the Gulf Coast. There you can see the showers and thunderstorms and now that things are heating up, temperatures during the day time -- those temperatures on the rise, that's helping to provide some lift and some instability and much of the Florida peninsula getting hit now with showers and thunderstorms.

Of course, this area across Miami-Dade County, really not looking forward to any of that rain as you're still looking at those flood waters beginning to recede. What do you really need to know? What is the bottom line here with Katrina?

Well, it is expected to become a major hurricane with winds of at least 130 to 155 mile per hour plus. Landfall expected along the northern and central Gulf Coast sometime on Monday. And the rain bands, those outer rain bands, are going to begin to be felt along the U.S. Gulf Coast late on Sunday. So, already tomorrow, we're going to start to get some rain of rain showers in there and some occasional gusty winds. It's moving west right now, expect it to start to curve on up to the northwest and then keep its eye -- maybe Louisiana.

We're still uncertain exactly where it's going to go. There you can see the skinny red line, but we don't want you to look at that because there is several miles on each side of that line that still could get hit. If you live anywhere from maybe western Louisiana, even into the Florida panhandle, you need to be on high alert for a major hurricane, making landfall sometime on Monday -- Randi?

KAYE: OK, Jacqui, thank you. We'll check back with you a little bit later on.

New Orleans had its last brush with a major tropical storm in 1998 with Hurricane George. That fierce storm ultimately delivered only a glancing blow to that city, but forecasters fear the area might not be so lucky with Katrina. While the category four hurricane is a major crisis for any area, things could be uniquely and horrificly different in New Orleans. John Zarrella looks at the city's hurricane doomsday scenario.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): New Orleans is all about attitude. From its music to its street cars and riverboats, it oozes charm. It's a city that moves a bit slower, saving its energy to party a little harder. It is also a city that flirts with disaster nearly every hurricane season.

WALTER MAESTRI, EMERGENCY MGR., JEFFERSON PARISH: It is going to happen. We can't continue to beat the odds. We have beaten the odds for a long, long time now.

ZARRELLA: Walter Maestri is the Jefferson Parish emergency manager. Of the 1.3 million people living in metropolitan New Orleans, he is responsible for nearly half a million, which during hurricane season leaves him with many sleepless nights. Maestri is keenly aware there is little he can do to keep people from falling victim to a natural disaster or to save his city. The possibilities play out in his mind over and over again.

MAESTRI: ... I mean, very, very rapidly. Within a ten-hour period, you know, the metropolitan New Orleans area is totally devastated. Gone.

ZARRELLA: Several expert studies and computer models show New Orleans even more vulnerable than anyone previously thought. Maestri says levies and flood walls designed to protect the city from moderately intense hurricanes, might be overtopped and fail in just such storms.

MAESTRI: The way it is described -- we describe it here as lake Pontchartrain has now become Lake New Orleans. ZARRELLA: In 1998, Hurricane George brushed New Orleans, going inland to the east in Mississippi. A fairly powerful storm, it was not on the order of Betsy, which in 1965 killed 61 people in New Orleans, flooded the city and led to the construction of the flood walls. But had it struck, the death toll from George might have been horrific.

MAESTRI: Stop for a second. The greatest disaster that any of us have looked at in the United States was 9/11, 2001. About 3,00 people died -- 44, 000 if George makes the direct hit on New Orleans.

ZARRELLA: Maestri estimates most of the dead would be people who for whatever reason, did not or could not evacuate; left trapped in the city as the water rises. The problem is, population has mushroomed. The evacuation routes are limited and New Orleans is like a bowl.

The city sits below sea level. On three sides, there is water: The Gulf of Mexico, Lake Pontchartrain and the Mississippi River. Jackson Square, the cathedral and just about everything else in New Orleans would be underwater, 12 to 15 feet of it.

In the storms aftermath, water would sit in the city for an estimated six months. Pumps needed to get the water out would be themselves under water. And it would take up to 120 days to rebuild them. In this worst- case scenario, Maestri's vision is chilling.

MAESTRI: While we're rebuilding the pumps, we're get everybody who is still in here and who's alive out and we're gathering the casualties, we're gathering the fatalities and getting them out of here.

ZARRELLA: Every building in the city, having been submerged to one degree or another, would have to be structurally analyzed. For months, no drinking water, no sewer system, no electricity. There are ideas and some plans to save New Orleans from this doomsday vision.

The levies and flood walls surrounding the city can be raised higher. That would cost billions of dollars and take years to complete. Another thought, wall-off a portion of New Orleans. The area behind the barrier would include the government center and the French Quarter.

For now, the only hope is to escape the city. Given the new studies, the evacuation order may come even for moderate hurricanes. It will take 72 hours to get 65 to 70 percent of the people out, if everything goes smoothly.

MAESTRI: This is the one agency in government that not only is allowed to pray, it's demanded. We've got callouses on our knees in this business.

ZARRELLA: Divine intervention, good fortune, the whims of nature: Whatever it is, it is all that separates this city on the Mississippi from Walter Maestri's nightmare.

John Zarrella, CNN, New Orleans.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KAYE: If you live in an area being affected by Hurricane Katrina, you can help add to our coverage: E-mail us your stories, pictures, video, whatever you've got by logging on to CNN.COM/STORIES. Include your name, location and phone number, but please, most importantly, be careful.

ANNOUNCER: Keep watching CNN, your Hurricane Headquarters.

KAYE: Is this the end for Jr.? Damaging testimony this week in the Gotti trial. Our legal eagles explain it all, when CNN LIVE SATURDAY returns.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KAYE: Hurricane Katrina is making her way across the Gulf picking up speed and strength as it blows closer to shore. The storm is expected to make its second landfall Monday along New Orleans with winds that could top 140 miles an hour. Emergency management officials are urging people in low lying areas along the Mississippi and Louisiana coast to start heading inland now.

ANNOUNCER: Keep watching CNN, your Hurricane Headquarters.

KAYE: Testimony in the federal trial of Gambino family scion John Gotti JR. reads like a script from the Sopranos. It includes allegations of kidnapping, attempted murder, blood oaths and family betrayal. This week radio talk show host Curtis Sliwa testified how he had been shot point blank inside a New York taxicab back in 1992. He says for his diatribes against Gotti's father. A former high ranking member of the Gambino crime family testified Gotti had ordered vicious attacks on Sliwa, but was furious Sliwa had been shot instead. That kicks off our Legal Briefs today with attorneys Avery Friedman and Richard Herman. Good afternoon to both of you. Avery, let's start with you, Avery. How do things look, would you say, for Jr. Gotti?

AVERY FRIEDMAN, CIVIL RIGHTS ATTORNEY: Jr. Gotti's in a lot of trouble, Randi. The fact is that no matter how bad the government witnesses are, what is not in dispute is that there was a very serious crime committed. And that was that there was a meeting with Jr., and little Joey, and Mikey, and all these other guys, and they were essentially going to rough up and kidnap Curtis Sliwa for his disrespectful remarks. Well, you know what, this is actually a bad Soprano episode, because it got all bundled up. And what did they do, but they shot him.

"Mikey Y," Michael Yanotti, was also a co-defendant here. And the bottom line now is what is not in dispute is that Curtis Sliwa was shot by these people. And the fact is Gotti gave the order, in fact, it was 5,000 bucks, pretty cheap actually, to do something like this. So at this point, I think Jr. might be going down.

KAYE: Richard, let's talk about one of these witnesses for the government. Michael DiLeonardo, "Mikey Scars, if you will. You know him, you represented him at one point. How much do you think it is going to take for the jury to actually believe this guy? He was a member of the Gambino family, he was facing prison time himself and now he's turned.

RICHARD HERMAN, CRIMINAL DEFENSE ATTORNEY: Well I was part of the representation in the Atlanta -- the Gold Club case. And the situation with Mike DiLeonardo is this, he was slated to take over this family from John Gotti back in the early '90s. So the government says, look this guy admitted to be a murderer, he's a bad guy, but he's mended his ways and he wants to come clean and tell the truth. And we jurors, we don't go to central casting to find our witnesses. On the other hand, the defense lets the jury know that this is a convicted murderer. He is a rat, and he's testifying because he's seeking his freedom. That's right. He's not up there -- all of this altruistic feelings there, so he can get out of jail and get on with his life. And if he testifies and provides what's called substantial assistance to the government, and pleases the prosecutor, they will then write a letter to the judge and reduce his prison time so he will have a life left. And that's what's going on. And despite what Avery says, it is a tough call for this jury to believe Mike DiLeonardo. He's a seasoned witness. He's very, very prepared for this case. He's been rehearsed up, down and around.

FRIEDMAN: So what?

HERMAN: And the defense is just doing the best they can.

KAYE: Avery, jump in.

FRIEDMAN: Yes. I mean, look, I don't get it. The fact is that "Mikey Scars" might be a bad guy and Joey D'Angelo may be a bad guy. It doesn't matter. The fact is, what is not in dispute here is that they shot Curtis Sliwa. And many of the witnesses have corroborated each other and that's why I say Jr. Gotti is in a world of trouble. No one is clean in this case.

HERMAN: The issue is whether or not Jr. Gotti had anything to do with that. And if you believe DiLeonardo then you will convict Gotti Jr. If you do not believe DiLeonardo, then you won't. But the problem -- one of the defense flaws as I see it, in my opinion in this case, is that they admitted early on that Gotti Jr. was part of this so-called Gambino family. But however he backed out of it, that's a very tough pill for a jury to swallow. And I don't think it's ever been presented in any sort of litigation before.

KAYE: Let me get to the second topic I want to address today, if that's all right. Race bias. We're following up on a major investigation by the Dallas Morning News. Showing that prosecutors routinely will manipulate the racial composition of juries. First off, tell us why they would do this. What is the benefit here?

FRIEDMAN: Go ahead, Richard.

HERMAN: Well, you know, Randi, there are stereotypes and people and prosecutors and defense attorney's believe in these stereotypes. And the prosecutors in Texas don't want blacks on the juries when they're trying to convict black defendant. It's as simple as that. I mean, 96 percent of the peremptory challenges by the prosecutors were to kick blacks off the jury. And that's just not right. They're supposed to be there, searching for the truth. And if you get an unfair jury pool, that is not proper, and that is against the rules. That's not how the game is play played.

KAYE: Avery, do you believe --

FRIEDMAN: You also want to get convictions. And I hate to do this, but I totally agree. The fact is that what's going on in Dallas County is absolutely wrong. If you're black, nine chances out of ten based on the Dallas Morning News study, you're going to get knocked off during this peremptory challenge. And in fact, it is not a fair representation. And so while there's a huge amount of debate going on, what is irrefutable by the study is that there is racial bias being practiced in Dallas County. And you know what, that's not the only place in America.

KAYE: So the belief is that minorities would tend to emphasize -- empathize with the accused. So that's the problem, as a result. What should be done to prevent this type of racial bias when it comes to choosing a jury?

FRIEDMAN: I think, honestly, that the defense lawyers who are not getting active in their so-called bets and challenges, when it is time to really be emphatic about objecting to the use of peremptory challenges, and knocking folks off that are black, has to be accentuated. And I think, you know what, I'm not going to have any disagreement with my colleague on this.

HERMAN: No. Randi, it has to come from the defense bar. They have to raise these issues and try to persuade these judges. Three cases have been overturned in Texas because of this. But it happens, as Avery said, all over the United States this is going on. And just take a quick look at the Michael Jackson case. The one potential black juror that couldn't get on was immediately thrown off by the prosecution. It happens all over. It's horrible.

KAYE: What does this do, Richard, to the constitutional rights of the defendants when the juries are being stacked in terms of racial makeup?

HERMAN: Well they're not getting the trial by a jury of their peers. It's as simple as that. And, you know, prosecutors are going for conviction prone individuals. They are again basing it on stereotypes. But, you know, you look at the Federal District Courts all throughout the country, they're running at 90 percent plus conviction rates. So it's very, very difficult to get an acquittal in a criminal case, especially when the jury is stacked against your client.

KAYE: All right. We're going to have to leave it there. Always a pleasure to see you both. Attorney's Avery Friedman, Richard Herman, thank you both.

HERMAN: Have a great day.

FRIEDMAN: Nice to see you, Randi. Take care.

KAYE: Thank you. You, too.

In other news across America this hour. It could be a while before the so-called morning-after pill is sold over the counter. The FDA has delayed its decision on the matter for at least 60 days. There is concern over whether the pill would be available to girls under age 17. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton called the delay a breach of faith.

All spray and splash parks in New York will soon come under state regulation. More than 3200 people were recently sickened at a contaminated spray ground. The health department suspects a sick infant or toddler contaminated the water with fecal matter.

Missing music producer Christian Julian Irwin has been found. Authorities say he was discovered sitting naked in a creek in the backyard of a Los Angeles-area home. Irwin vanished Sunday after reportedly calling a friend and saying he was being pursued by people with dogs. Authorities say there is no evidence of a chase.

And in Bristol Borough, Pennsylvania, today, a minivan plowed into two officers conducting a routine traffic stop. Both officers are reported in critical condition.

As we have been telling you, Hurricane Katrina, still churning away in the Gulf. Where is the storm headed next? Jacqui Jeras joins with us with the latest information right after the break.

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KAYE: People in low-lying areas of the Mississippi and Louisiana coasts are being advised to start heading inland soon. Hurricane Katrina is picking up strength as it heads for its predicted second landfall near New Orleans. CNN Meteorologist Jacqui Jeras is tracking the storm and joins us from the weather center with the latest -- Jacqui?

JERAS: Well, Randi, we're looking at a very large hurricane, a major category three hurricane right now. It could become even stronger when it makes landfall: A category five -- or four rather, but could rule out, though, a category five, as those winds are expected to pick up as the storm continues to move over the open water.

The water temperatures here in the Gulf of Mexico, unbelievable: 85 to 88 degrees. And the temperatures really only have to be about 80 degrees to sustain a hurricane. So, certainly ominous news and ominous conditions right now.

There are hurricane watches which have been posted from just east of Morgan City, extending over to the Pearl River that means that hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours. We think some of those outer rain bands are going to begin to move in along the northern Gulf Coast, sometime late in the day on Sunday and into Sunday evening.

Forecast track: It's moving westward now. It is going to be curving on up to the north. Keep in mind, we still have a margin of error here. This could go a little bit off to the left, it could go a little bit off to the right. So, if you're under that cone of uncertainty, be very careful and be ready for this storm.

If you're traveling, thinking about getting out of town, we've got some delays right now out of Chicago, O'Hare Airport. There are showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Ohio Valley. Of course, Florida, South Florida still getting hit with the showers and thunderstorms from Katrina.

We're looking at some wet weather, as you can see, moving into the Mid-Atlantic states. It should be smooth sailing for you across parts of the upper Midwest: 79 in Minneapolis for today. And a little bit of wet weather across parts of the Four Corners. It's very hot throughout much of the West -- Randi?

KAYE: OK. Jacqui, thank you.

ANNOUNCER: Keep watching CNN, your hurricane headquarters.

KAYE: CNN is bringing you up-to-the-minute details all day today on Hurricane Katrina. Plus, at the top of the hour, "CNN PRESENTS:" "Dead Wrong: Inside an Intelligence Meltdown," an in-depth investigation about how faulty information led to the Iraq war.

At 4:00 on "CNN LIVE SATURDAY:" Are they sick or faking it? How to decide when your child should miss school because of illness.

And at 5:00, "PEOPLE IN THE NEWS" looks at the trial and tribulations of Britain's embattled House of Windsor. We'll be right back.

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