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CNN Live Saturday

Mudslides In Guatemala Destroy Entire Village; Earthquake In South Asia Kills Over 1,100

Aired October 08, 2005 - 16:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

GERRI WILLIS, CNN ANCHOR: A major earthquake hits south Asia, several countries are affected. This hour, we have live reports from the region.
Plus, in Guatemala, an entire town wiped out by a massive land landslide. We'll go there live this hour.

And fighting bird flu: is the U.S. prepared for a possible pandemic?

Hello. And welcome to CNN LIVE SATURDAY. I'm Gerri Willis. All that and more after this check of the headlines.

Hundreds are dead after rains torrential exacerbated by Hurricane Stan triggered landslides across Guatemala. A local aide official says entire families and at least one entire village have disappeared. We'll have a live report from Guatemala just minutes ahead.

And in southern Asia more than 1,000 people are dead after a massive earthquake sends several subsequent aftershocks today. The death toll is climbing. We'll have a live report from Islamabad, Pakistan in just a moment.

And more bloodshed in Iraq today. A police officer was killed in a suicide bombing in Baghdad. A dozen Iraqis were wounded in that attack. Five others were injured in two different roadside bombings. More violence before next week's referendum on that country's draft constitution. Iraq is beefing up security.

Well, the damage is massive and the final death toll could be staggering. A powerful earthquake in Pakistan this morning is feared to have killed and injured thousands of people in that country as well as in India and Pakistan. Strong aftershocks shook the region all day. And the desperate search for survivors trapped in the rubble under way at this hour. CNN's senior international correspondent Satinder Bindra is in Islamabad, Pakistan -- Satinder.

Are you there?

SATINDER BINDRA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Gerri, at about 9:00 this morning, there was a massive earthquake here in Pakistan. And we have some dramatic eyewitness video. This video was shot by some one on a cellphone. And it shows how an entire apartment complex in the capital in Islamabad collapsed.

People starting shrieking, screaming in terror not knowing what was happening. Now, at this point, it is 1:00 in the morning here in Islamabad, and a massive rescue and relief operation has been ongoing here for several hours. This operation was hampered by bad weather a short while ago. It was raining heavily. There were heavy winds.

But now things are better. The situation in terms of the weather is calmer. And we'll try and give you a sense what is going on.

This is the roof of the collapsed tower. And as you can see, some 30 to 40 rescue workers are back up on the roof. They're trying to make a hole right through the roof so they can get inside the building.

The latest word we have from rescue officials is that they're hearing voices once again. So they're quite hopeful even at this time of finding survivors here.

I should add, the epicenter of this earthquake was located about 90 kilometers, or 60 miles north of Islamabad. And the damage and the casualties north of Islamabad are quite extensive.

We understand in the northwest frontier province, more than 500 people have been killed. And officials and authorities warning us that tomorrow morning, they fully expect casualties to continue to mount.

What you are seeing right now actually is workers trying to cut away debris. There's a lot of steel girders in there. And they're trying to cut these girders with powerful saws so they can actually take some one and put them down the shaft to check and see how many people still could be alive in this collapsed tower. Back to you.

WILLIS: Satinder, that was dramatic video you showed us of the apartment building collapsing. And I have got to tell you from the way you described it to me today and over the last few hours. The fact that you could save people in the building, that there are still people alive is really surprising to me and very good news. Any idea how many people might be recovered?

BINDRA: Gerri, I have been asking officials, in fact, pressing them on it. Earlier estimates were perhaps could be 100 people in there. Of course, their fate unknown. And officials say it's really hard to predict at this time, an exact number.

What they have done in the meantime to get a better sense of what's going on in there, is they have tried to make at least five entrances into this collapsed tower, a few from the side. But the most important entrance they're trying to make from the top. Because once they get in from the top, they can, they can examine all the collapsed floors. They can hear voices. They say once they are in there.

So in the next half hour, perhaps the next hour, as this cutting process goes on, people will be able to get inside. Then they'll have a better sense of how many people are in there. How many are dead. And how many are alive. I should add this operation is very efficient. It's been going on for several hours. Tons of rubble has already been removed. There's a lot of heavy earth moving equipment that's out here. And, with every passing hour, no one's energy is flagging, everyone trying to work hard, because they know they have precious time now to save lives here in Islamabad.

WILLIS: Satinder, relief efforts, obviously frantic going on. It looks from the pictures you are showing us here, that the people there are not panicked in any way. They're very determined in their effort to save these people.

BINDRA: Gerri, you put it -- exactly correctly. These people all up on that roof are trained professionals. Some are actually expert mountain climbers because they'll have to take ropes and go right down inside. There is an emergency response team here. The Pakistani army is here.

So, what they have been trying to do for several hours is try to pinpoint from where they're hearing voices, from where they're hearing sounds. If you look just to the right of this collapsed building, there is a little hole that they're making there just to the right. Because just a short while ago, officials have told me they have heard voices from there.

They're trying to construct another tunnel just to the right of this collapsed tower, get inside as much as they can and see who exactly is inside. Is it just one person? Is it more?

So these thing do's take time. But officials are sure now there are people in there who are still alive. And that's perhaps the best sign -- that's perhaps the best sign for many people whose families and loved ones are still inside there.

WILLIS: Satinder Bindra, thank you so much for that report.

The earthquake killed one person in Jalabad, Afghanistan. There are also reports of casualties and damage in the remote northeastern part of the country. U.S. military officials say the tremor was felt in the capital Kabul and at Bagrham, the main U.S. base in Afghanistan. But there are no reports of quake-related injuries among 18,000 U.S. forces serving in the area.

If you would look to help the earthquake relief effort, please call UNICEF. They're number, 1-800-4-UNICEF. You can always get on the web. Click on UNICEF.org.

Stay with CNN for continuing coverage of the earthquake and its impact across south Asia. We'll bring you live updates from the region throughout the day.

Another disaster, a half a world away, has killed hundreds more people. A massive landslide has literally wiped out a village, an entire village in Guatemala. Everyone there is feared dead.

CNN's Harris Whitbeck joins me on the phone with details -- Harris.

HARRIS WHITBECK, CNN CORRESPONDENT (via telephone): Gerri, the situation continues to be difficult here in the highlands of Guatemala. Maybe because there is very little access to these villages that were affected by landslide. Reports came in this morning from a fire brigade that the entire village near Santiago (INAUDIBLE), which is near the lake, Lake (INAUDIBLE) which is a large tourist destination here, had been completely wiped out.

And the president of Guatemala apparently flew over that village in a helicopter. And he was quoted as saying that he had never seen anything like that.

The village normally has a population of 800 people. That have been completely wiped out by the mudslides. And preliminary reports indicate that at least 800, possibly up to 1,400 people might have lost their lives.

This all came as a result of heavy rains that have been drenching a large portion of Guatemala and Central America since last weekend. And rains have not abated. And it is not expected that they will diminish any time soon.

So that is hampering rescue efforts. Not only air efforts but efforts to reach the area by land, because of lots of flooding, flash flooding and mudslides in the Guatemalan highlands.

WILLIS: Harris, you say the flooding rain continues. We're seeing pictures of it right now. How is it making things worse?

WHITBECK: Well, the earth itself is very unstable, because it has been raining here so long. This is the regular rainy season in Guatemala. And it rains for several months at a time. So the earth itself is already drenched with water and that makes it very unstable. And fear is that the additional rain will cause even more landslides, or will -- will do further damage to the areas that have already been cleared up. There's a massive effort...

WILLIS: I think we have lost Harris Whitbeck. Harris?

WHITBECK: Yeah. Can you hear me now?

WILLIS: I can indeed.

WHITBECK: I was telling you a major effort going on here by the army, by the government, by the private sector to get heavy equipment out into these roads to try to open those roads so that rescue workers and relief trucks can get to these affected areas. The problem -- the concern is that, there have been villages that have been cut off from any communication with anybody for several days now. And that of course brings problems, because there is various little potable water, very little food in instances.

WILLIS: Harris Whitbeck, thank you so much for that report.

Turning now to bird flu fears. Turkey is dealing with an outbreak of the disease. The country's agriculture minister says about 1,800 birds died after avian flu was detected at a farm next to the bird sanctuary. Not it's not clear how many actually had the disease. Many were killed of course as a precaution.

Back in this country, the government is preparing for a potential disaster: a bird flu strain that could mutate enough to start spreading easily among people. CNN's Kathleen Koch joins us now from Washington with details -- Kathleen.

KATHLEEN KOCH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well Gerri, let's say the U.S. government is starting to prepare. Because right now top health officials admit the United States does not have enough drugs to prevent avian flu or to treat it. And the government's response plan warns that there could be serious consequences.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KOCH (voice-over): The draft U.S. plan to handle a massive pandemic warns if there were an outbreak in Asia it would reach the U.S. in a few months or even weeks. The plan obtained by the "New York Times" and confirmed by CNN says, under the worst case scenario more than 1.9 million Americans would die, that Hospitals would be overwhelmed, riots break out at vaccination clinics. Worse, some say, than the chaos after Hurricane Katrina.

MIKE LEAVITT, HEALTH & HUMAN SERVICES SECRETARY: We could be battling 5,000 different fronts at the same moment.

KOCH: The plan calls for ramping up vaccine production to ten times the current output. The president met with vaccine makers Friday. But experts say such an increase isn't likely unless the federal government itself on a yearly basis buys vaccines and ensures manufacturers a profit.

LAURIE GARRETT, AUTHOR: Some countries already do that. That pretty much guarantees they always have a certain level of vaccine supply. Our country has not historically done that. And we have a very mixed up mechanism for distribution of flu vaccine, because we don't have a national health system.

KOCH: The plan suggests states pass laws permitting quarantine of affected areas as Virginia has done. That state's pandemic flu plan in place since 2002 includes new sophisticated labs for testing deadly pathogens and regular meetings with community leaders on how to respond.

DR. LISA KAPLOWITZ: How are businesses going to continue if a quarter of their work force is ill at any one time? How are we going to maintain essential services? How are we going to be sure that we have police and fire services? We don't have all the answers.

KOCH: Six Democratic senators sent a letter to the Bush administration expressing concern the government is, quote, "ill prepared to respond to this looming crisis." And asking why the U.S. is so far behind other nations?

It comes as Turkey Saturday announced the death of 2,000 birds from avian flu.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

And it is just such reporting that U.S. health officials insist is essential in stopping the spread of avian flu if it ever morphs into a form transmissible by humans.

Now, as for the draft U.S. response plan, officials say that it will be completed in its final form later this month -- Gerri.

WILLIS: Kathleen, is there a feeling that getting the right vaccine, if you could get the right vaccine, it would contain the problem completely?

KOCH: Well, Gerri, again it's a very tricky business. And what experts say is that you cannot even create the vaccine until, as I said, the avian flu were to morph into the form that would be transmissible human to human. So, at that point it would already say, experts say it would already begin spreading very rapidly and getting out of control before you could even begin the vaccine creation process, which takes many, many months.

But, unfortunately that's how it works.

WILLIS: Well, Kathleen Koch thank you for the report.

And bird flu is now showing up in Eastern Europe. Romania says three domestic ducks and a swan have died from the disease, the first known avian flu cases in the country. Authorities say hundreds of birds have been killed as a precaution. And hundreds of people in Romania were given flu vaccines today.

Coming up, is the U.S. prepared for a possible flu pandemic? We'll talk to an expert and get answers.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WILLIS: More details are surfacing in the possible plot to attack New York City subways. A Department of Homeland Security memo obtained by the Associated Press says a team of terrorist operatives plan to attack the subway with bombs hidden in briefcases, suitcases or baby strollers. The alleged attacks were scheduled to take place on or around tomorrow.

Now authorities are downplaying the threat, but nevertheless are taking action. CNNs Jason Carroll takes a look at the heightened security and challenges in securing New York's subway system.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JASON CARROLL, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It's been said New York's subway system is a city beneath the city. There are more than 6,000 subway cars running on more than 600 miles of track.

WILLIAM DALY, CONTROL RISKS GROUP: The system was built to move people, large numbers of people, quickly throughout the city. And it was not designed for security.

CARROLL: Security expert Bill Daly spent 10 years as an FBI agent. He says, since the London bombings three months ago, law enforcement in New York has worked to improved security. They're installing 1,000 security cameras at subway stations. Currently, about half have them. Some of the new cameras will be smart cameras that spot suspicious packages. But it could be at least two years before that system is fully up and running.

So, what about now? Police have increased patrols in response to the specific threat against mass transit. But, with 490 subway stations, each one with multiple points of entry, it would be impossible for a police force totaling 37,000 officers to patrol every subway entrance.

At some stations, you're more likely to find a musician.

(on camera): It's about lunch hour. This is Columbus Circle, one of Manhattan's busiest subway stations. Several lines come through here. We wanted to check security at the main entrance. No police officers in sight right now.

(voice-over): Our camera went down to the platform, still no officers. We checked back two hours later and did find officers on patrol. We took the subway half-a-mile north and got off. When we tried to reenter, an officer was posted in front of the turnstiles, but all we needed to do was go right across the street to avoid them.

PATRICK TIMLIN, MICHAEL STAPLETON ASSOCIATES: There's no way to completely secure a system of this size. You'll never be able to lock down a fluid transit system like this. And we don't want to do that, or the terrorists win.

CARROLL: Patrick Timlin heads a security firm. He's also a former veteran of the city's police department. He says installing a security system similar to one at airports in subways would be too expensive and impractical.

TIMLIN: At the airports, you have ticketed, identified passengers coming through. Here, we have movement of millions of people. We depend it on for the lifeblood of the city. We have to keep those people moving. So, they cannot be stopped arbitrarily and routinely.

CARROLL: Security experts say, despite increased police and new surveillance techniques, the best line of defense is still the eyes and ears of the public.

Jason Carroll, CNN, New York

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WILLIS: So how did authorities chase down the threat from half a world away? Here to answer that is Mike Brooks. He's the security and law enforcement expert and a former member of the FBI 's terrorism task force. Mike, good to see you.

MIKE BROOKS, FRM. FBI TERRORISM TASK FORCE: Good to be with you, Gerri.

WILLIS: So, let's get to the issue of the FBI and local police -- they sounded like they were singing two different tunes during this whole thing. I got to tell you, I live in New York, so I was paying extra special close attention.

BROOKS: Well, for a number of years, NYPD and FBI -- their relationship has been ten was. Now, there are members of the NYPD on the FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force and have been since the 80s in New York City. But the NYPD decided, hey look, we don't want to have to go out and get intelligence from anybody.

Commissioner Kelly said if I want intelligence I want to be able to go to right to my own people. And so he started up an intelligence unit second to none in any police department around the country or around the world.

WILLIS: But are they working well together? Are they speaking the same language?

BROOKS: They are now. You know, you noticed at this press conference the other day, you had the mayor, you had Commissioner Kelly. And who did you have? The assistant director of the FBI of the New York field office. Now, he had gotten permission from the FBI director to attend that.

So, they are working together better than they had. Before 9/11 they worked together really well. After 9/11, things got a little tenuous, because NYPD sometimes felt that the FBI wasn't giving them information.

But I was on the JTTF for a number of years, and I had the top secret clearances. I would get the information and it would filter down. And hopefully that is happening with New York.

But still, he has detectives all across the world. He has them in Israel. He's got one detective now assigned to New Scotland Yard. They've even had detectives in Afghanistan and Iraq.

WILLIS: Well -- and obviously, they're getting this information from all over the globe. But it seems to me the two groups have different interests in the case. They have different objectives ultimately. Different people to serve isn't that right?

BROOKS: Yes, and no. You look at Department of Homeland Security. They're the ones who are saying that the threat wasn't that credible. But you have got 22 different agencies within the Department of Homeland Security, each of those agencies have their own intelligence component.

But if I'm the mayor of New York City if I'm the commissioner of New York. And, I have some information that I feel my citizens should know. And I didn't tell them. And something did happen. You'd see all them up on Capitol Hill with the right hand raised answering to a committee why didn't you tell somebody.

WILLIS: I've got to get you to a very important point for New Yorkers and for Americans across the country, can you keep the subways safe?

BROOKS: Well, we saw the piece with Jason Carroll. And we saw one of the security experts say, you know, yes, it's impossible to keep the subway totally safe. I think what you can do is harden the target. And what this also was, Gerri, was a vigilance alert for people of New York City. You have no better intelligence officers, if you will, than the eyes and the ears of the citizens of New York.

You have got millions that travel on the subway every day. If they see something, they have to let somebody know ad not just slough it off as oh, it's some homeless guy's suitcase or some homeless guy's bag. If they see something, they have to let somebody know, because they are the eyes and the ears for the law enforcement people that are on the street every day.

WILLIS: Signs are everywhere. If you see something, say something.

BROOKS: Absolutely.

WILLIS: Thank you Mike Brooks.

BROOKS: Gerri, good to be with you.

WILLIS: Be sure to stay tuned to CNN day and night for your most reliable news about your security.

Just ahead, sizing up the potential threat posed by bird flu. We're going to examine previous flu pandemics. And then the question on many minds: is the U.S. prepared?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WILLIS: Planning for the worst case scenario to protect the country from the next super-flu. Federal health officials have been discussing how to limit the threat of bird flu should it turn into a pandemic. In 1918, a strain of influenza did just that, killing millions. Our Beth Nissen gives us a history lesson.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BETH NISSEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It started in the first months of 1918. Maybe in rural Kansas, maybe in China, maybe France. An influenza virus mutated into deadly form.

By autumn, it had spread in hand shakes and through the air through the Americas, Africa, Europe and the battlefields of World War I, infecting eventually one fifth of the world's population. Millions could not fight the virus or secondary infections like pneumonia and died horrible deaths. JOHN BARRY, AUTHOR, "THE GREAT INFLUENZA": Some of the really terrifying symptoms were that people would bleed not only from their nose or their mouth, but actually, from their eyes and from their ears.

NISSEN: John Barry is the author of "The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Plague in History."

BARRY: People could die in 24 hours. They literally could wake up feeling OK, and be dead by night fall.

NISSEN: The lethal flu spread most quickly wherever people were concentrated in close quarters: soldiers' barracks, troop ships, city tenements in Europe and the U.S.

BARRY: In almost every city in the country, they ran out of coffins. And in Philadelphia, they actually came into a situation where priests were driving horse drawn carriages down the street, calling upon people to bring out the dead.

NISSEN: Influenza was no medieval mystery in 1918.

BARRY: People knew it was a contagious disease and the way to avoid getting it was to avoid other people.

NISSEN: But in the U.S. and elsewhere, government officials kept secret how deadly the new flu strain was, fearful the news would hurt the war effort.

BARRY: The Wilson administration only cared about one thing, winning World War I. They told lies to protect morale, in their words. Initially, they were telling everyone this is just ordinary influenza. It's nothing to be worried about. People who otherwise would have protected themselves, would have stayed home, they were not protected, and they were exposed and they died.

NISSEN: Most of the dead were young adults, ages 20 to 40.

BARRY: The best number for the United States is 675,000 deaths. The overwhelming majority died between mid-September and mid-November.

NISSEN: Worldwide, the cost was literally incalculable.

BARRY: Probably at least 40 million people died. There's a Nobel Prize winner who thinks at least 50 million and possibly as many as 100 million deaths.

NISSEN: More people in a year than the Black Death of the middle ages killed in a century. Could it happen again?

BARRY: Another pandemic, unfortunately, is not only possible; it is inevitable.

NISSEN: Inevitable that another influenza virus will some day somewhere mutate to lethal form, spread among humans.

BARRY: The question is how prepared we are for it. Right now, we are not even close to ready for it.

NISSEN: Beth Nissen, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WILLIS: Health officials have been warning for a long time now that another flu epidemic could turn incredibly deadly. But could a different kind of outbreak do the same? The book, "False Alarm: The Truth About The Epidemic of Fear Assesses The Risk." The author Dr. Marc Siegle, who is also an associate professor at New York University School of Medicine is here now to talk with us about it. Dr. Siegle, welcome.

DR. MARC SIEGLE, NEW YORK UNIVERSITY: Hello, Gerri. How are you?

WILLIS: You know, this whole story is so concerning. And people have been hearing today from us about -- a story out of Turkey, 2,000 birds -- nearly 2,000 birds destroyed because they had avian flu. Should we all be going out and buying Tamiflu? What should we be doing?

SIEGLE: Well, first of all Gerri, we have to keep in mind that this is in the bird population. We have avian viruses almost every year. This one has been around since 1997. And the biggest problem with it is that we are having trouble controlling it in the bird population.

Before it can affect us, it has to mutate. And there are several more mutations it would have to do before it can go human to human. Tamiflu has not actually even been proven to be effective against this if it were to mutate.

I want to emphasize that that is worst case scenario. We're wise to consider it. We're wise to be prepared. But we are not wise if we worry unnecessarily about something that may not happen here.

WILLIS: How likely is it, though, that this avian flew could mutate and turn into something that kills millions and millions of people just as this a 1918 flu epidemic did?

SIEGLE: Well, Gerri, the answer to that $1,000 question is we don't know how likely it is for this particular bug. But we do know that one will probably turn into human form some time over the next 50 years. And maybe even over the next 10, 20. It may very well not be this bug.

Also, if it does mutate or another one does, we don't know for sure what it will do. That's -- you know really speculation at this point.

But this does bring to light the need for us to prepare for an epidemic at some point. And since flus can be quite deadly, that's something to be prepared for. We need more work in hospitals to prepare for possible epidemics. Our vaccine technology is now, you know in the form we can use genetic engineering and get a vaccine very quickly. But we are busy using the old chicken egg medium which takes three to six months to make a vaccine. I think we need to upgrade our ability to make vaccines quickly.

WILLIS: And that would take a lot of work, because we don't have a lot of come pans in this country making the vaccines. There is some economic problems here, barriers that we have to get passed before that happens right?

SIEGLE: Gerri, that's a very good point. Because actually vaccine manufacturer isn't that profitable. And it's hard to get manufacturers excited about it. We clearly need more government involvement.

But you know, if we stockpile a lot of vaccine against a bug that doesn't affect us directly, we may end up having to discard it. So, we have to be careful.

I certainly think the technology for making vaccines has to be improved right away, as does ability for hospitals to handle a lot of sick patients at once.

But we have to be careful not to send the message to the public that something is in the offing here. We don't have that information.

WILLIS: Very good words of caution there from Dr. Marc Siegel. Thanks so much for being with us.

SIEGLE: Thank you, Gerri.

WILLIS: Coming up, a massive earthquake in south Asia. But it's not the first time disaster struck the region. Why is the subcontinent so prone to earthquakes? We're going to find out when we return.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WILLIS: Here are the latest developments. The number dead from the earthquake in south Asia now tops 1,300. Most of the deaths are in Pakistan's northwest frontier. There are victims in Islamabad as well. The earthquake's magnitude was 7.6. It was felt in New Delhi, India, and the Afghan capital, Kabul.

In Guatemala, relief efforts still can't reach a village destroyed by a landslide. The village's 800 inhabitants are all feared dead. Seasonal rains have flooded Guatemala, compounding the devastation of Hurricane Stan.

And planning for the threat of a flu pandemic now involves the Pentagon. CNN's Barbara Starr reports orders went out to senior commanders to establish broad outlines for utilizing troops in a health emergency. A Pentagon health official tells CNN responding to a widespread contagion would overwhelm the U.S. military. And the death toll has been growing all day long from the earthquake in south Asia. But it's not the first time such a disaster has struck the region. The subcontinent is prone to earthquakes.

Joining me now from Washington is seismologist, Walter Hays. Walter, welcome.

WALTER HAYS, SEISMOLOGIST: Thank you.

WILLIS: I just can't get over the size of this earthquake. Let's start there. Are you surprised to see 7.6 and then, aftershocks over 6.

HAYS: No, this is really no surprise, because the area is very capable of having larger earthquakes and has had larger earthquakes in the past. It's because of the tectonic setting that is -- it makes it suitable for that type of thing to happen.

WILLIS: And why is this area so prone to earthquakes?

HAYS: Well you have, and have had for the last 80 million years, the collision of the Indian-Australian plate and the Eurasian plate. One is moving southward -- that is the Eurasian plate -- one is moving northward -- that's the Indian-Australian plate.

And so they just keep colliding, so you have nowhere to go except up or down. And the rocks go up and creating the beautiful mountains that are there. But that also triggers many earthquakes and a lot of landslides everytime an earthquake happens.

WILLIS: Put in perspective for us, if you would, the magnitude of a 7.6 Richter earthquake? What is -- what is that like?

HAYS: Well it is huge, in the sense of violent ground shaking that will be at least a third of a G and higher. G being the force of gravity. In other words, it is going to be a strong -- a high percentage of the force of gravity. And that shaking is going to last for a minute or a little less depending or little more depending on the magnitude.

Now magnitude 7.6 is maybe ten times greater than the loma-prieta earthquake that struck San Francisco. But still less. Every time it is one point, just one point is 31 times more energy released.

WILLIS: That's an interesting fact.

You know, we saw these aftershocks, obviously. They were incredible as well. Is this area well prepared to deal with this kind of problem in terms of building codes, in terms of the help that is a available to help people get over this, this terrible event?

HAYS: Well I have many colleagues and friends in that region as well. And yes, in principle, they are well prepared they have building codes they know how to enforce them. The have good scientists, good engineers. But mother nature has a way of finding the flaws in our best laid plans and our best policies. And construction will, it will find the weak spots in the construction.

WILLIS: Well, Walter Hays, mother nature is finding lots of weak spots today. Thank you so much for being with us.

HAYS: Thank you, Gerri.

WILLIS: Of course, if you would look to help the earthquake relief effort, please call UNICEF. The number is 1-800-4-UNICEF. Or use the web, click on UNICEF.org.

Evidence suggests Hurricane Katrina may not have been the big one. Straight ahead, why the hurricane could soon be downgraded.

And then we're going to switch gears a little bit with a Jeanne Moos story and a contest that allows you to make your own law. Find out how it works. It's all coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WILLIS: At the top of the hour, "CNN Presents" the amazing stories of five people whose lives were changed forever by 9/11. How fate intervened in each of their lives and changed them in ways they never would have expected. "Twist of Fate: Stories From 9/11," that's at 5:00 Eastern.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WILLIS: More than 1,000 people now are counted dead in Louisiana from Hurricane Katrina. Nearly six weeks later, the storm's five state death toll is 1,239. Katrina is America's second deadliest hurricane of all time behind the unnamed storm that hit Florida in 1928.

More than a month later, weather experts are getting a firmer grip on what Katrina was and was not as it ran ashore on august 29th. CNNs Jacqui Jeras reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTPAE)

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What is this?

JACQUI JERAS, CNN METEOROLOGIST (voice-over): As Katrina victims sort through the rubble and pick up the pieces of their lives, researchers are combing through the damage and data to learn more about the power of destruction. Pictures like this show the raw power of Katrina's storm surge. But pictures like this have convinced some scientists New Orleans could have fared worse.

JOSH WURMAN, CENTER FOR SEVERE WEATHER RESEARCH: That tells us that the winds were not 140 miles an hour sustained, probably not even 120 miles an hour sustained. Particularly in New Orleans, which was on the weaker side of Katrina, the winds probably did not exceed 100 miles per hour.

JERAS: That means Katrina probably will be downgraded to a Category 3 when it hit the coast, according to Wurman. And preliminary data from the National Hurricane Research Center supports that.

If Katrina was a 3, what would a 4 have done to New Orleans? The most significant difference would be the wind damage. The damage from a Category 4 is about 40 percent worse than a 3. Take a well-built one-story home. A Category 3 storm may damage the roof and the windows, but a Category 4 would tear the roof off and possibly flatten the home.

In a high-rise, a Category 3 would probably leave the windows intact. A 4 likely would knock out all of the windows and gut the building. But the worst devastation from Katrina and most storms isn't the wind, but the storm surge, which is far worse in a Category 4.

STEPHEN BAIG, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: The difference between a Category 3 and a Category 4 for storm surge rather depends on what part of the coastline are we talking about? In the New Orleans area, it can be a matter of as much as four or five feet.

JERAS: That four or five feet can make a crucial difference in cities like New Orleans protected by levees. Four feet can keep it under or put it over the top.

BAIG: We have problems defining just where sea level is. And the benchmarks that are used to measure the elevations, let's say of the levee heights, may be inaccurate, as much as four feet in their actual real elevations.

JERAS: In this case, we may never know the exact measurement, because the levee breach flooded the city with more water than the surge would have.

And then there's the problem that the city and much of the Gulf coastline are literally sinking. The precise intensity of this storm matters little to the people who lost family, friends, homes and jobs. But it could make a big difference in how the region is reconstructed.

WURMAN: When we think about how to protect metropolitan areas, we shouldn't use Katrina as the bellwether worst-case standard. It was far from the worse case. And if we really want to protect a city from a Category 4 or 5 and the strong side of a Category 4 or 5, we need to do qualitatively different things in terms of levee design, in terms of getting more people evacuated.

JERAS (on camera): National Hurricane Center meteorologists say they expect their final report in a number of weeks, though sometimes research can take longer. Hurricane Andrew was upgraded to a Category 5 storm 10 years after making landfill.

Jacqui Jeras, CNN.

(END VIDEOTAPE) WILLIS; A depression in the Atlantic may become the season's 20th named storm. Believe it or not, at last report the system was more than 350 miles southeast of Bermuda, which now is under a tropical storm watch. Vince would be the storm's name -- I hope it's not -- if the system hits tropical storm strength.

Carol Lin is here to tell us what she has cooking for her show. What's going on? I'm so glad to see you. A busy day.

CAROL LIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I know, it's been a busy day.

Well, coming up at 6:00, I'll give you some relief. But I want to tell you what we have, a special guest, Kala Williams, she was a sergeant in military intelligence, spent a year in Iraq, wrote a book about it -- about sexual harassment, torture beyond Abu Ghraib and her own personal reflections of what it is like to be a woman in the military. The name of her book: "Love My Rifle More Than You."

WILLIS: Sound fascinating. Carol, thank you.

LIN: Well, we'll find out at 6:00.

WILLIS: How many times have you said to yourself there ought to be a law? Well, now there can be. CNN's Jeanne Moos found a contest where you get to play the lawmaker. That's straight ahead on CNN LIVE SATURDAY.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WILLIS: We're taking a look now at stories across America. Going, going gonem, a beach resort in Clearwater, Florida is history. The 13-story Adams Mark Hotel was reduced to a 35 foot tall pile of rubble this morning. It was imploded to make room for OK, no surprise here, high-rise condominiums.

And a big honor today for Hillary Rodham Clinton. The senator was one of ten women inducted into the National Women's Hall of Fame in Seneca Falls, New York, that's the birth place of women's rights movement. Since its inception in 1969, 217 women have received the honor.

And, 2-year-old Arizona girl gets a long-awaited birthday present: her name. The little girl's parents hadn't been able to choose a name for their daughter for two years. They still couldn't. Turns out the little girl named herself. She chose Alice. Maybe she was tired of going by baby.

Enforcing the law is one thing, coming up with them is something else. Some lawmakers are taking a novel approach to getting new ideas. Here's our Jeanne Moos.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEANNE MOOS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Ever wished you could take the law into your own hands? Literally? What laws would you dream up?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I would have a law about the people walking around with the little earphones on their telephone. It's going to say, you can't walk around and look like you're an insane person, talking to yourself and scaring the people around you.

MOOS: Remember how we used to learn how a bill became a law?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's not easy to become a law, is it?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No. But how I hope and pray that I will, but today I am still just a bill.

MOOS: Well, Bill, these days, you could enter a contest.

JOE SIMITIAN, CALIFORNIA STATE SENATE: My annual contest is called there ought to be a law.

MOOS: In five years, California state senator, Joe Simitian, has gotten all these entries, and what do the winners get?

SIMITIAN: The real prize, if you will, is that at the end of the year, their idea has become law for 36 million Californians.

MOOS: Eight bills have actually been signed into law, like the one about antifreeze submitted by a retired nurse. SIMITIAN: Her puppy died, she didn't know why. A little exploration turned up the fact that the puppy had apparently lapped up some antifreeze in a parking lot.

MOOS: That led to a law that requires antifreeze to contain a bitter tasting substance to prevent kids and pets from drinking it. Without the bitter stuff, the antifreeze tastes sweet. Another winner ...

SIMITIAN: I had a constituent who took her $100 gift certificate into a local retailer and they said, sorry, we're going through bankruptcy proceedings and we can't honor that.

MOOS: She figured there ought to be a law, and now there is, requiring a business that goes bankrupt to honor gift certificates. Among the contest rejects, a proposed law saying for every law passed, one should be taken off the books. Never getting on the books was a suggestion to reprogram ATMs to function as voting machines. Maybe you'd prefer a law against say, spit.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: People who spit everywhere. That bothers me.

MOOS: Or one requiring public toilets.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Put port-a-potties out, so that 59th street doesn't smell like (EXPLETIVE DELETED).

MOOS: The make your own law concept is spreading. New York assemblyman Jimmy Ming's (ph) contest has attracted proposals like requiring all people to wash their hands in public restrooms, not just employees. (on camera): Personally, I think there should be a law against people who block the left side of the escalator rather than standing on the right, so the people like me can get in the passing lane. Excuse me. Sorry.

(voice-over): If you think that's petty, "Reader's Digest" once joked there ought to be a law against rotating a circular merchandise rack while another shopper is browsing. And how about a ban on the press shoving cameras inches from your face.

(on camera): That should be a law.

(voice-over): This guy's proposed legislation was based on the Bible.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This says every green seed bearing plant is good for you.

MOOS: It figures a guy with a sign saying, can you spare a dollar to buy pot, proposes legalizing it.

Jeanne Moos, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

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