Return to Transcripts main page
CNN This Morning
October Jobs Report; Bobby Flay is Interviewed about Restaurants; LSU and Alabama Face Off. Aired 8:30-9a ET
Aired November 04, 2022 - 08:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[08:30:30]
POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: All right. So, the October jobs report just out. We're going to gather the numbers, make sense of them, bring them to you in just a minute.
Let's get some context, though, with our whole team who is here. Chief business correspondent Christine Romans is with us, business correspondent Rahel Solomon.
So, Christine, this is the -- we've been saying all morning, they want a goldilocks.
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Yes.
HARLOW: They want a positive number but not too much because we've got to grapple with this inflation.
ROMANS: Right.
So we have 261,000 net new jobs added in the period, which is a little - I think a little hotter than people thought.
HARLOW: That's hot. Yes.
ROMANS: I mean, and in normal times, that would be a lot of jobs created. And 3.7 percent is the unemployment rate. So it went up a little bit, but still near that, you know, 50-year low. So, this is one of those stories - I guess that you could say that is maybe a little goldilocks. The unemployment rate getting a little bit hotter. That's what the Fed wants to see. but you still had a lot of jobs created in the period. And I'm going to dig in here and find out where we added those jobs.
LEMON: We'll come back to Christine because she's actually doing -
ROMANS: OK. Yes.
LEMON: Yes, trying to get the information right now.
Rahel, hello to you.
RAHEL SOLOMON, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Hi, guys.
LEMON: So, look, it's coming -- it's a very critical time politically and for the country because people are going to be deciding who their leaders are. and the White House, as you know, they are a little bit nervous about this. I think everyone is a little bit nervous.
SOLOMON: Yes, I mean, look, it's a critically time politically, it's a critical time economically. So this is a number that we've all be watching to see. Are we going to start to see the labor mark cool off? And I would argue this is a sign of that, right, 261,000 as Christine pointed out.
We'll have to look at the revisions that we got for the last few months. But to put that in perspective, that would be roughly the lightest number we've seen in quite some time, right?
So, we knew that this was coming as the Fed started raising rates in March and has continued to raise rates, of course, since then as they make borrowing more expensive. So we all knew -- Christine and I have talked about quite a bit that at some point the labor would slow, we've just been waiting to see when it would happen.
COLLINS: And so what's the Federal Reserve's response to this, do you think?
SOLOMON: You know, I'd have to look at wages, I'd have to look at labor force participation, but this is a slowing, which the Fed wants to see. It wants to see a cooldown, a moderation. It doesn't want to see job growth plummet.
So, I would say that this is perhaps a step in the right direction. But also going to be looking at labor force participation. It's also going to be looking at wages for sure.
ROMANS: There's an unemployment rate. You can see how much it's fallen since the really worst days of the pandemic.
One thing here, manufacturing jobs added there, 32,000. That's interesting to see here.
And Rahel was talking about how it's a slowdown. And 261,000 would be hot any other - you know, any other time you'd be like, that's so many jobs. But we - on average, about 420,000 jobs on average every month this year. So, this is below the year's pace.
But this has been -- so now we're talking about 4 million jobs have been created this year in the U.S. economy. That is way more than you normally see. Usually, you just have 2 million jobs in a - 2 million or 3 million a year. We've already really been far above that.
LEMON: Is this goldilocks?
ROMANS: I don't know. I mean, it's so hard to say what's happening in the job market when you look under the hood because we have so many jobs that are still open. The Fed needs to see the job market cool down a little bit so it doesn't start to spin off other inflation and get inflation intrenched.
Do you think it's goldilocks, Rahel?
LEMON: And goldilocks is not too fast, not too slow, right?
SOLOMON: Well, you know, I'm trying to remember the op-ed that the president wrote. I believe it was in "The Wall Street Journal" earlier this year where goldilocks was sort of 150 to 200. Now, that's just sort of off the top of my head but I believe -
COLLINS: One hundred and fifty is what the White House had put out.
SOLOMON: Right, I believe that was the figure. So, are we there yet? No. Are we sort of getting closer to the 400,000 that we added earlier this year, the 500,000 jobs that we added earlier this year in January? Yes, we're moving in the right direction. Are we exactly there?
HARLOW: You know what's so interesting, all of these headlines, like above the fold in the papers today, Amazon.
ROMANS: Yes.
SOLOMON: Yes.
HARLOW: They're stopping - you know, basically pausing a lot of their corporate hiring.
ROMANS: Like, after hiring like crazy.
HARLOW: No, I hear you but, I mean, I - I am seeing -- we are seeing -- listening to these CEOs saying, we're going to take a beat. Look at the lift also. Twitter is a different animal why they're doing the layoffs.
ROMANS: Yes.
HARLOW: But these companies are responding to something.
ROMANS: So you can see the cracks for sure. But I was talking to an economist earlier today who said, you know, it's not fair to say that there are - that there's real weakness in the job market. You have to look hard to find the exception, which is the weakness in the job market. It's still very, very strong. But, you're right, looking ahead, these CEOs are saying --
HARLOW: That's their job to lock ahead.
ROMANS: Yes.
COLLINS: But I want to ask you about something that Karine Jean- Pierre, the press secretary at the White House, said just right before this jobs report came out.
ROMANS: Sure.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The nation could be teetering on the edge of a recession. How will the White House prepare for that?
[08:35:03]
KARINE JEAN-PIERRE, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: So, I want to be clear, there is - we are not - there are no meetings or anything happening like that in preparing for a recession. What we're seeing right now is a strong labor market. And the reason we're seeing the strong labor market is because of the bold actions that this president has taken.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: Does it surprise you that the White House is not preparing for a recession?
ROMANS: Well, look, the worse -- something worse is happening right now, 8.2 percent inflation.
HARLOW: Yes.
ROMANS: That's what they're really worried about. And they're spinning in circles trying to figure out -- to do everything they can. They don't have a lot of leverage to do for the inflation.
I mean, I think the people who are calling for a recession are still calling for a relatively mild and shallow recession. Even Larry Summers has said, oh, and, by the way, if we get a recession, it won't be very bad. And entrenched inflation is way worse than anything else.
LEMON: I know they say this. I think - look, parsing words here, she said they're not having meetings. I mean that's -- it doesn't mean that they're not preparing for a recession. I think they are well aware of what the headwinds are and what's happening here.
SOLOMON: And also, I mean, I think -
LEMON: But let me just get this - and say I think - what we have been saying, what I'm hearing from everyone here, right, from all of you, business experts, is that coming out of Covid we don't really have the metrics to measure this new economy.
ROMANS: Exactly. Exactly. Covid broke the charts.
LEMON: Thank you.
ROMANS: It broke the charts. And so now we sit here. We're trying to figure out what it means.
When I ask economists and CEOs, finish this sentence, the economy is x.
HARLOW: Weird.
ROMANS: They say confusing.
HARLOW: That's my word (ph).
ROMANS: Chaotic, hard to read. You know, they don't really know exactly.
SOLOMON: I think it was Jason Furman (ph), an economist, who said recently, if you're not a little confused about the economy, you're not paving attention.
LEMON: Yes.
SOLOMON: And that's true, right, because think about what the pandemic did. It created a lot more savings. So even though inflation is still at 8.2 percent, people are still spending because they have a cushion, right? So, the pandemic did really strange things, not just in terms of our checking accounts and our balance sheets, but also supply chains. So, there are a lot of sort of strange things happening that wouldn't normally happen and they're happening, by the way, all at once.
HARLOW: Four days - four days from the midterms and we are talking about the number one issue by a mile, Christine, on voter's minds.
ROMANS: Right. Right. Absolutely.
SOLOMON: Yes. Can I also just say -
ROMANS: And when they go to the grocery store, the bills are higher. Gas - the gas - price the gas tank. The gas station gets way too much attention I think because a lot of people, you know, hybrid commuting, fewer commutes. Like, there's all these different reasons why you could say on paper people could be feeling a little better this time than they did in 2008 when we were also worried about a recession. People feel lousy about the economy. Seventy-five percent of people we polled say we're already in a recession, you know. So, the way people feel, then that becomes real.
COLLINS: Yes.
SOLOMON: Just bouncing off that. I know we talked about what the White House is and isn't preparing for. If you're at home and you're hearing these recession warnings and you can prepare, you want to prepare.
LEMON: Yes.
HARLOW: Yes. Good advice.
LEMON: I think one of the smartest things we heard this morning was from Frank Luntz, where he said it's not necessarily about inflation or the jobs, it's about affordability.
HARLOW: Right.
ROMANS: Yes.
SOLOMON: Oh, yes.
LEMON: That's the issue.
And, look, it's weird, you're right, we have low unemployment but yet people can't find jobs. It's just - it's so odd.
ROMANS: We've never seen anything like it.
LEMON: Thank you both.
HARLOW: Thank you both.
LEMON: Great. Great. Great. Appreciate it.
SOLOMON: Good to be with you.
LEMON: Just -- you just heard the details from the latest jobs report. Who better to talk about that than Bobby Flay himself, who employs more than 250 people in the restaurant business, really hit hard by Covid. He is our guest visiting barista this morning. Bobby Flay will join us. Stay here.
COLLINS: It's like Andy (INAUDIBLE) clubhouse on Bravo.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[08:42:34]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LEMON: Here is the breaking news that I'm getting in right now. Bobby Flay is going down, down, down!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARLOW: Oh my God.
LEMON: We were just talking about the October jobs report. One industry that continues to face dire staffing shortages, that's restaurants. Competition for workers remain intense - it remains intense. About two-thirds of restaurants say that they are understaffed. That's according to an industry survey. And then there's the soaring food prices, supply chains, log jams and so on and so forth.
So, joining us now, the man who knows what it takes to run a restaurant, chef, restaurateur, entrepreneur, and I would say personal friend of mine, Bobby Flay. His new show "Beat Bobby Flay: Holiday Throwdown" premieres Tuesday on The Food Network and Discovery Plus.
I can't wait for Bobby Flay to invite all three of us on this program.
HARLOW: Yes.
BOBBY FLAY, CHEF, RESTAURANTEUR, FOOD NETWORK PERSONALITY: No problem. Love to have you. LEMON: Good to see you. How are you?
FLAY: Good to see you too.
LEMON: As you're watching the jobs reports, is it -- does anything resonate with you in - as far as staffing and all that?
FLAY: Oh, yes.
LEMON: What does?
FLAY: I mean the thing about restaurants is, it's a - it's a - it's an every night focus group of how people are feeling about the economy.
LEMON: Right.
FLAY: You know, and what's happening is, it's getting squeezed from every sort of corner and edge. I mean labor's expensive, commodities, meaning, you know, the cost of goods, foods, et cetera, is expensive. And, of course, occupancy costs is always expensive. The landlords never look out for you. I mean they're always - you know, they have very deep pockets and they're -
COLLINS: Trying to squeeze you.
FLAY: And they're not going to - they don't -- they don't take the pressure off.
On the or side of it, I think the consumers are feeling the pressure as well because they turn on the TV, they walk - they look at social media and they understand that, you know, we're on the brink of some really bad economy here. And so people, they tighten their wallet.
HARLOW: Do you think that, we're on the brink of a pretty bad economy?
LEMON: Well, they say - you're saying they say we are, and so that effects people, right?
HARLOW: What do you think?
FLAY: I do.
HARLOW: You do?
FLAY: Yes, I mean, listen, unfortunately, I've been around long enough to see this happen before.
HARLOW: Yes.
FLAY: And, ultimately, we're able to come out of it, but you do have to hold on tight. But I feel like something not good is happening. I mean you look at all the report and I watch what people are -- the way people are acting in the restaurants. It's a really good --
LEMON: Meaning? Meaning? FLAY: Meaning like, so the person that, you know, last week was buying a $75 bottle of wine, maybe this week it's a $40 bottle of wine. They're making decisions that are actually squeezing the check average in the restaurant.
HARLOW: So interesting.
FLAY: And so you - and so you understand exactly that, you know, it makes it very, very difficult.
On the other side of it, the restauranteur, the proprietor, is having a hard time making profits.
[08:45:05]
So, people that want to come back to work, they want higher salaries, of course, and, you know, you have to be very competitive to get good labor.
COLLINS: Yes. And what does that look like? Are you able to find people? Because I've heard this is a big issue of everyone that was left go by restaurants at the height of the pandemic, now they're having difficulty hiring good people back.
FLAY: Well, we all said -- and I say "we" meaning the -- my friends in the business, where is everybody? Like, you thought like, you know, the pandemic hit and everybody would be willing to come back to work right away, but that did not happen. We basically, you know, opened the doors and wondered where everybody was. And now people are starting to trickle back, but, again, it's very -- very, very competitive.
LEMON: And, you're right, listen, Bobby and I both live out on Long Island. And you know Eric Lemonides. He owns Almond out in Bridgehampton.
HARLOW: I love that restaurant.
LEMON: But people are having to provide housing for -
HARLOW: Employees.
LEMON: For employees because, you know, it's - it's tough. Like, there are incentives. You're having to pay people bonuses and help -
FLAY: Bonuses, benefits, anything to make people feel like, you know, this is the place I want to work. And also like, you know, the problem is, if somebody comes by and offers your employee an extra dollar an hour, you know, that adds up over the week and over the year. And so they - they'll consider that. So you have to do certain things that are not just about the actual dollar itself to make people feel like they want to stay in your restaurant or on your (INAUDIBLE).
LEMON: What can the people who make laws and the people in the - the financial experts, what can they learn from the restaurant industry as it comes to this new economy? What can you teach them? And what are they missing?
FLAY: Well, I can tell you one thing, the person - the people that are going to be paying for this is the consumers. Restaurant are going to have to keep charging more money to survive so that they can actually create jobs. I mean - and also survive as a proprietor as well. I mean it's a vicious cycle at this point and it's unfortunate.
I say that we're literally a generation away of people understanding what it really costs to go eat in a restaurant and be OK with it. Meaning, all of us, we all pay or own bills. We go to the restaurants. We know that chicken costs $24 at our favorite restaurant. What about if I told you it's going to be $38 next week? Right.
COLLINS: Might not go (ph).
FLAY: That's your reaction. So my - so somebody who's 16 years old right now, who's not paying their bills yet, they're going to - they're going to feel comfortable paying that because that's what they - that's what they see and that's what they know.
HARLOW: Yes.
FLAY: We're not ready to do that.
COLLINS: All of this is really important but we have something more important, which is when Don Lemon was on your show.
LEMON: Oh, geez.
FLAY: Oh, that's right.
HARLOW: Can we play it?
FLAY: This was the highlight of "Beatdown."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
FLAY: That's right, when life gives you Don Lemon, you make lemonade, baby.
I watch you all the time.
LEMON: You do?
FLAY: Oh, yes.
LEMON: And are you cooking or are you just chilling?
FLAY: No, I'm usually at home. You have this thing where you're like, if somebody says something that you just take a moment and you just go, ah, we'll be right back. I mean you don't even have to say what you're thinking.
ALEX GUARNASCHELLI: Can I remind you there's someone else here who's like that?
FLAY: Me?
GUARNASCHELLI: Yes.
LEMON: You.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: What did Don Lemon cook and was it good?
LEMON: I love her.
FLAY: No, Don didn't - Don didn't cook, he just tried to get me beat. That's his role.
LEMON: I did. I caused him to lose his (INAUDIBLE).
FLAY: Yes, he did. Yes, exactly.
LEMON: Because you - his burger wasn't as - well, and that was Alex (ph) -
FLAY: Alex Guarnaschelli.
LEMON: Alex Guarnaschelli. I saw Alex the other night at Alba in the city.
FLAY: OK.
LEMON: I try to -- I try to - listen, I try to support local restaurants.
FLAY: I love that.
HARLOW: Somehow Don has figured out a way to go out to dinner on this schedule. Kaitlan and I are still working on that.
LEMON: Bobby, do you know for eight and a half years I did not really get to go out and have a proper dinner because I had a show on at 10:00. And now I can go to dinner. It's expensive!
FLAY: And it's going to get more expensive, Don.
LEMON: It's expensive. It's expensive.
FLAY: That's the lesson of the day.
LEMON: Yes, but she's right, I mean she held up a mirror to you. And - but I think you were also holding up a mirror to the people who are in charge of us about - no, I mean, in charge of the economy and what have you about what is to come and how -- what should be done about it.
FLAY: Yes. I mean, it's -- listen, I -- we'll get through this.
LEMON: Yes. FLAY: The bottom line is that nobody knows when and how long and how deep it's going to be but this - I mean the -- to me, when I look at numbers, et cetera, that doesn't really matter to me. What matter to me is people's attitudes. That's it. They decide.
HARLOW: How do they feel?
LEMON: Thank you.
FLAY: How do they feel?
HARLOW: How they feel. Exactly (INAUDIBLE).
FLAY: Exactly.
HARLOW: Thank you, friend.
LEMON: Bobby, we've got to - we've got to kick you out of a gig again. You're out of here. Thank you.
FLAY: OK, I'm gone.
LEMON: Bobby, thank you. It's so good to see you.
COLLINS: Thanks for joining us.
LEMON: It's really great to see you.
FLAY: Congratulations to all three of you. This is fantastic.
LEMON: Thank you very much. I wish we would have to talk about Rotel versus, you know, queso, because it's really important.
HARLOW: We'll come on the challenge. Queso. Well, just save that for the next -
COLLINS: We'll bring you back.
HARLOW: It's coming. It's coming.
LEMON: Bobby's new show, "Beat Bobby Flay: Holiday Throwdown," premiers Tuesday on The Food Network and Discovery Plus.
Here we go.
HARLOW: I love how the control room's like making me read this tease. Like I have some investment in Don's LSU Tigers taking on Kaitlan's Alabama Crimson Tide this weekend. Who will win and, more importantly, which anchor will earn bragging rights?
LEMON: Oh, that's your fight song. Why am I doing that?
COLLINS: That's Alabama's fight song you're dancing to.
OK, I think I've already won. Like, we can just end the throwdown.
HARLOW: Thank you, Bobby.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[06:54:04]
LEMON: So, an SEC showdown. Alabama and LSU will battle it out tomorrow in one of the biggest college football games this season.
HARLOW: Can I - and can I -
COLLINS: For the record, I told Don to take the sunglasses off. People in the Midwest are like turning off their TVs right now.
HARLOW: Just the sunglasses?
LEMON: Well, this is what we did at LSU to try to hid that we had been drinking for the game.
COLLINS: Well, we never drink. We run on (INAUDIBLE) during the game.
All right, the rivalry this morning clearly is real. Don was dancing to the Alabama fight song earlier. Obviously Alabama and LSU are playing on Saturday if you did not understand why Don has had an outfit change during the break. The question, of course, is who is going to win. I have paid our senior data reporter Harry Enten with this morning's number to say Alabama.
HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR DATA REPORTER: I got my -- I'm wearing my Columbia Lions jersey. I -
HARLOW: Is that for me?
LEMON: Oh, boy.
COLLINS: You have to stop wearing that.
HARLOW: Is that for me?
ENTEN: That's not - that's for you.
LEMON: Oh, boy. That's not - Harry, that's not a thing.
ENTEN: That -- that is a thing.
HARLOW: That is for me.
LEMON: It's not a thing.
HARLOW: Hey, guys, my - my college boyfriend was the quarterback.
[08:55:02]
LEMON: Oh, boy.
HARLOW: There you go.
ENTEN: Yes, I -- I left my --
LEMON: Here we go.
COLLINS: Did he play?
HARLOW: No.
COLLINS: OK.
LEMON: Who's going to win? Give us the data.
HARLOW: But he's a great guy.
ENTEN: I left my athletic days behind back in elementary school, I'll just say that. All right.
COLLINS: Oh, I like our chances.
ENTEN: The -- Kaitlan likes this. Not a big surprise. Chance of winning Saturday's matchup, Alabama at 69 percent, LSU at 31 percent. So, hey, Don has a little bit of a shot here but Kaitlan is the clear favorite.
Let's give you a little history on Alabama versus LSU all time. Alabama all time the clear leader with 55 wins, LSU with 26 wins. Five ties back in the day where you could get that in college football. You can't get that anymore since, I believe, 1996.
But let's take a look at the chance of winning the national title because that's, of course, what we're all interested in at the end of the day. You'll notice Ohio State, 27 percent, Georgia, 22 percent. They're actually taking on Tennessee this weekend in another big SEC matchup, 11 percent. Alabama at 10 percent. And I apologize to Don, but LSU has a less than 1 percent chance of winning the national title. It's math, Don, I don't necessarily control it.
Finally, college football fandom by region. Poppy, of course, is from that Midwest. There are more in the Midwest than anywhere else at 41 percent.
HARLOW: Yes. Yes.
ENTEN: The south, Don and Kaitlan, at 40 percent. No one on this crew is from the west, but I will say, Neil Sedaka, my uncle, his current residence is, in fact, in the west in California and Harry, of course, from the northeast, just 25 percent. But I love my Columbia football Lions.
HARLOW: Thank the Lord for you representing me. I'm just going to stay out of this.
LEMON: It's not - its not the same, though, Kaitlan, is it?
COLLINS: Can I say -
LEMON: I mean, the SEC, it's like the - it's the - COLLINS: It doesn't - yes, it doesn't even compare.
LEMON: Doesn't compare.
COLLINS: The SEC is a different world.
I will say, I don't even think our biggest competitor this weekend is really LSU. It's our own unforced errors that Alabama has had. They have not been amazing on the road yet, but I think that they're ready for this. We had a bye week last week.
LEMON: Yes.
HARLOW: Can you tell people, because we hope he's watching, (INAUDIBLE).
COLLINS: This is a signed photo of Nick Saban that may or may not sit in my office and Zach may or may not have furiously run down to get.
LEMON: And this is, by the way, if you can't -- this is just LSU. This sits in my office.
COLLINS: It feels like college game day where Lee Corso (ph) makes his pick and he puts on the head of the mascot of whoever he picks. And you should be like putting on that LSU Tiger head right now.
LEMON: Here's the thing. I know I look crazy but this is actually how I dress if I go to an LSU game, on the rare occasion that I -- because I don't have a chance to go as much as I used to. But here's a - here the thing, Kaitlan and I were supposed to go down to Death Valley, to Baton Rouge, and go to the game.
COLLINS: Yes.
LEMON: Next week is going to be so crazy when it comes to the midterm elections we've decided - like, we don't need -- we had a lot this week. We didn't need that on our plates. And, plus, I did not want her being harassed and to feel bad at Death Valley at tailgating in the stadium when we win and she loses.
COLLINS: Oh, please. I am a really sore loser, I will say, but I have full confidence. And also, when you're emotionally invested, as I am, it's sometimes better to just watch it from your house.
LEMON: Yes.
COLLINS: Your neighbors don't care if you're yelling at the TV.
LEMON: Yes, around the bowl, down the hole, roll Tide roll.
HARLOW: Are you going to take the sunglasses off to say good-bye to people?
LEMON: Thank you, Harry. Thanks, everybody. I appreciate it.
CNN "NEWSROOM" starts right after the break. Have a great weekend, everyone.
COLLINS: And roll Tide.
LEMON: Go, Tigers.
HARLOW: That was so great.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
