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CNN This Morning

Wagner Chief Cuts Deal, Calls Off Insurrection; Insurrection Led By Prigozhin Comes To Abrupt End; Canada Launches Probe Into Titan Incident; Prigozhin Heads Into Exile After Calling Off Insurrection; White House Continuing To Monitor The Situation In Russia; Biden Reaffirms U.S. Support For Ukraine In Calls With Leaders Of U.K., France, Germany; Three San Antonio Officers Charged With Murder After Fatally Shooting Woman At Her Apartment. Train Derailment On Montana Bridge Sends Multiple Rail Cars Into Yellowstone River. Aired 6-7a ET

Aired June 25, 2023 - 06:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[06:00:33]

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning and welcome to this special edition of CNN THIS MORNING. We have the latest developments out of Russia after Wagner mercenary forces ended their rebellion, at least for now, against Russian president Vladimir Putin. I'm Victor Blackwell.

AMARA WALKER, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Amara Walker. We are joined now by our colleague Wolf Blitzer in London.

Let's get you caught up on where things stand this morning. It appears Russia has been pulled back from the brink of chaos after the country struck a deal to end an armed insurrection by the head of the Wagner mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin. It was the most serious challenge to Russian president Vladimir Putin's iron-fisted regime since he came to power in 2000.

BLACKWELL: The uprising though was over almost as quickly as it began. The Kremlin announced an agreement to end the standoff and the Wagner chief confirmed his troops were turning around and ending their march toward Moscow.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN, HEAD OF THE WAGNER GROUP (through translator): Therefore, realizing all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be shed from one of the sides, we turn our columns around and leave in the opposite direction to the field camps, according to the plan.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

BLACKWELL: Russia says it's dropping charges against Prigozhin. He agreed to leave Russia for neighboring Belarus, but there is no word on where he is not right now.

WALKER: As for Vladimir Putin, experts say he emerges from this crisis weaker among world leaders and his own people. Democratic congressman Jason Crow serves on the intelligence and foreign affairs committee and he says both Putin and Prigozhin are worse off.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. JASON CROW (D-CO): Anybody thinks that either Putin or Prigozhin is going to walk away from this unscathed, they are fooling themselves. That the idea that Prigozhin's going to go to Belarus and retire in peace and the Wagner mercenaries are just going to return to the battlefield and Putin's going back to situation normal is just not going to happen, right? Putin has been extremely weakened by this.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WALKER: Analysts say Putin faces a challenge in dealing with the fallout from the uprising.

BLACKWELL: Wolf Blitzer, again, is with us from London. It was remarkable, Wolf, a remarkable couple of days, Putin faced this very real threat of armed insurrection and then it ended.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: You're absolutely right, Victor and Amara. Thanks to both of you very, very much.

It was truly an historic moment as well. We're once again covering all the impact and the response to the rebellion in Russia. Our reporters and analysts around the world they are all standing by. CNN international diplomatic editor Nic Robertson is joining us first. Nic, what do we know, first of all, about the situation in Russia right now? How tense is it?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: It's less tense than it was. We know that Prigozhin's forces that were driving to Moscow reportedly are on their way back to base. The highway there still the main highway linking Rostov-on-Don in the south to Moscow is still not fully open to traffic. We know that in Rostov-on-Don itself road repair crews have gone out to repair the areas where his -- Prigozhin's heavy military equipment ripped up the tarmac.

But beyond some of these sort of physical details, there is a lot that we don't know. We don't know precisely where Prigozhin is. We know that he asked essentially for the removal of the defense minister, Sergei Shoigu. We haven't heard from the defense minister. We haven't heard from Putin. We don't know precisely where President Putin is. We know that Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, negotiated this standdown, if you will, and this exit, this off-ramp from what was going to be a Russian on Russian potential bloodbath.

So, they clearly got themselves -- the leadership clearly got themselves out of a very tight and hugely dangerous and damaging situation. But how they did it and how it will play out is unclear. And I think one of the components that tells us how close this came to a massive potential bloodbath we are hearing this morning that the Chechen special forces, and remember the Chechen leaders, one of the first big power players to come out yesterday and back Putin, his special forces are pulling back from Rostov-on-Don.

So, a calamity for Russia averted. But at what cost and will it hold? These are unknown -- these are unknowns at the moment, Wolf.

BLITZER: That's a good point because so many Russian analysts and experts as you know, Nic, they are insisting that Putin has emerged from this in a weaker position in Russia.

[06:05:09]

How does he navigate the fallout from this near-rebellion?

ROBERTSON: It's not clear. One thing that we know that he will do, he likes loyalty, Prigozhin hasn't given him his loyalty, so Prigozhin is likely to, although he appears to have gotten off right now, can face further consequences. We know that Putin was once seen as a super smart strategist. The person who could balance the power of all the different oligarchs in the country. That clearly is no longer true.

We have known that his sort of supreme military planning skills have fallen apart over the past year and a half in Ukraine. And here to have this massive dissent on Russia streets, a huge military armed force essentially coming to take battle with his own army, again, just shows weakness and it also shows the weakness within the military. The structures within the -- the structures within the military are riddled with private military contractors like Wagner. For the soldiers at the bottom end of all of these structures, it's unclear who their lines of command are. So, it reveals also a flawed and weak Russian military more so than I think we had any idea until yesterday.

BLITZER: Yes, good point. Nic Robertson, thank you very much. We will get back to you soon.

I want to go to our senior international correspondent Fred Pleitgen. He's joining us now from Berlin. With Prigozhin headed to Belarus, presumably, what happens to the mercenary force that he actually built, Fred?

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, I think that's completely unclear at this point in time. And one of the things that the Russian leadership in the form of Dmitry Peskov, of course, the spokesman for the Kremlin, said yesterday is that because of the achievements on the battlefield by the Wagner group and, I think, one of the things that we saw yesterday on the ground in that town in Rostov in the south of Russia is that obviously the Wagner fighters who were on the ground there were respected not just by Russian soldiers that they were around in that main headquarters but also by the people on the street there.

So, clearly there is a good deal of respect for the toughness of these Wagner fighters and some of the achievements, at least, from the Russian point of view that they have had on the battlefield. So, the Russians are saying that these people can now apply to join the Russian military. It's one of the things that had always been the plan or has been the plan for a couple of weeks by the Russian military leadership, by Sergei Shoigu when he put out a decree that said that all private military companies have to start making contracts with the Russian defense ministry. So, that at least as far as the structure is concerned seems to be the way that things are going. Of course, Wagner is different than all other private military companies in Russia and that it's gigantic. It was always the most prominent one, Wolf. And it also had its own command and control structure with commanders who are under Prigozhin and were close to Prigozhin who were themselves also quite well known in Russia and certainly in places around the world.

We have people like, for instance, Dmitry Utkin who did a lot of Prigozhin's bidding, for instance, in Syria when it came to supporting the Russian forces in the war there. Also, some of those oil dealings as well. You had commanders who were doing the dealings in Africa. What happens to them is completely unclear.

So, right now we are still sort of in a situation where we're going to have to see how all this plays out. Is there going to be a Wagner private military company in the future? Is Yevgeny Prigozhin still going to play a role in the Wagner private military company from his exile, if you will, in Belarus?

All these things are things that have not yet played out. And, you know, yesterday there was a very late phone call by the Kremlin with Dmitry Peskov where he laid some of this out. But he himself didn't have the answers to many of the questions. So, obviously, all off this is still very fresh.

You know, one of the things that Nic was saying, this was a big challenge for Vladimir Putin. I don't think that Vladimir Putin necessarily came out of this a lot weaker than he was before because one of the things that I think became clear is that if someone messes with Vladimir Putin, that someone is going to end up in exile or in a lot of trouble elsewhere. And certainly, all of the senior commanders, all the ones who have a lot of power on the battlefields in Ukraine immediately stepped behind Vladimir Putin.

You're talking about Ramzan Kadyrov. Also, Surovikin who for a while was commanding the special military operation, the war in Ukraine. So, with that right now the command and control structure at least as far as the military is concerned is clear right now. There is a unity of command right now where everything is with the Russian military -- and the Wagner group that special status seems to be gone.

It's unclear what the future, however, of the Wagner private military company is going to be. Because one of the things that we have to point out again and again is that the war in Ukraine, they are very present there, but they have a giant footprint around the world when you're looking at African countries, you're looking at the Middle East as well, Wolf.

BLITZER: Fred, you are joining us from Berlin right now.

[06:10:02]

I was just there a couple of weeks ago. I know Germany is a key NATO ally. They are watching what's going on in Russia very, very carefully. What's been the reaction so far? PLEITGEN: It's very interesting. And, first of all, you are absolutely

right. It is obviously a key NATO ally. And the Germans certainly in the last couple of months have definitely stepped up their engagement to support Ukraine. So, obviously, this is something that, you know, has huge reverberations potentially for that.

I think one of the things that we have seen from countries internationally from the Germans but also from other countries as well is that they have tried to make clear that they are not playing any sort of role in this. They don't want to be accused of taking one side or the other. They don't want to be accused of meddling.

They said they are watching this very closely. And, obviously, with a lot of concern, considering the amount of nuclear weapons that Russia has and the giant military that it has as well, Wolf.

BLITZER: Fred Pleitgen reporting from Berlin. Fred, thank you very much. I want to bring in CNN military analyst retired U.S. Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton. Colonel, thanks so much for joining us. How much weaker is Putin today knowing that the Wagner fighters got, what, within about 120 miles or so from Moscow only yesterday with very little resistance?

COL. CEDRIC LEIGHTON (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Yes, this is really interesting, Wolf, because what you're looking at is, you know, two basic things here. First of all, you're right. There is a degree of weakness in terms of how (INAUDIBLE) responded to it, that Putin's regime responded to this.

On the other hand, what it also shows is that there is a certain strength within Putin's forces because, as Fred correctly point out, every single member of the chain of command, military chain of command, stayed with Putin. The other part of it is Prigozhin got a few things out of this as well. He will be able to integrate his forces into the Russian military at least partially, and that could very well be a type of poison pill that is to Prigozhin's advantage. That is something that we will have to see how to it develops. But that is certainly something that could happen here.

BLITZER: All of this stemmed, we understand, Colonel, from Prigozhin's long-running dispute with the Russian defense ministry, the high- ranking Russian military. What will be -- what will you be watching around this apparent deal to send Prigozhin to neighboring Belarus and the standing of the defense minister Shoigu?

LEIGHTON: Yes, I am definitely going to be watching exactly how Shoigu and the others like General Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff and the commander of the forces in Ukraine, how their relationships evolve whether or not they can keep their positions, whether or not somebody who is perhaps more aligned with Prigozhin takes over the defense ministry.

These are all questions that we don't know answers to yet. But those are the things that I will be looking for. Also be looking for how at a tactical level Prigozhin's forces, the Wagner group elements integrate into the military. Are they truly going to be able to achieve unity of command at the tactical and more strategic levels or is this something that will elude them? If it eludes them then it, of course, spells problems, continued problems for the Russian military effort. But it's pretty clear that they have been taking advice in some ways indirectly from us here in the west because they know, the Russians know, that their unity of command has actually been very weak when it comes to the war in Ukraine and I think they are trying to strengthen it at this point.

BLITZER: Russia says that these Wagner mercenary fighters will now sign contracts, this is amazing, contracts with the Russian army. You mentioned that as well. Is it plausible to think that Russia will be able to fold these Wagner fighters into the regular Russian military?

LEIGHTON: It's going to be difficult, I think, in many areas, Wolf, because what you're looking at is people who are very different from the regular conscripts that enter the Russian military. Now, there are people within the Wagner group that have had military experience within the regular armed forces of Russia, the Russian federation, and they will be better able to integrate into this. They will, in essence, take over, they are respected by many members of the military because of their toughness, because of their brutality. And those are the kinds of things that will pave the way for Wagner group people in many cases to take over units as opposed to the members of the standard military.

So, it's going to be interesting to see how they integrate. I think they can at certain levels, but in other cases I think the command and control structures are quite different and that's going to be difficult for them to overcome, especially if you're talking about the convicts, the ex-convicts that the Wagner group has. They're going to be a lot harder to integrate than the normal people that were a part of the Wagner group before the Ukraine invasion.

BLITZER: When we last spoke, Colonel Leighton, you described Prigozhin and Putin as -- quote -- "two very delusional men" trying to exercise as much power as they can.

[06:15:06]

How much of this is a situation of Putin's own making, the blunders that he committed over these past many months?

LEIGHTON: Almost 100 percent, Wolf. This is not only Putin's war but this is also -- really every single aspect of this is really what Putin has been envisioning. He has tried to make this a very easy military operation. That failed almost immediately when they invaded Ukraine back in February of last year.

The fact that these things have not worked out and he has not replaced a senior military leadership in the real -- in a real way, that not only shows a degree of weakness, but also an unwillingness to change. And, I think, repeated actions that Putin has made here with a few minor exceptions have not been able to really overcome the tenacity of the Ukrainian forces and also resulted in the frictions that we see within the Russian military structure. And those frictions, of course, are what Putin uses in order to maintain power and also to make sure that he can, in essence, control all the people around him. Whether he continues to control them, of course, is an open question and he came close to losing that control.

BLITZER: He certainly did. Retired Colonel Cedric Leighton, excellent analysis. Thank you very much.

Up next, the White House, of course, is keeping a very close eye on Russia in the wake of this short-lived rebellion. What the U.S. knew about Prigozhin's plans and what it's watching for right now. We have new information. That's coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:20:51]

BLITZER: The escalation from Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is something the U.S. intelligence community has indeed been tracking for a while right now. They saw signs that he was making preparations for at least some sort of move by building up a weapons and ammunition stockpile, according to one western intelligence official. But how quickly this all unfolded was something that surprised top U.S. intelligence officials. And this morning, President Biden will continue to keep a very close tab on the situation in Russia for the U.S. and the NATO allies, what's going on is very, very significant.

We are joined right now by CNN's Priscilla Alvarez and Natasha Bertrand. Natasha, let me start with you. What is the U.S. intelligence community watching out for right now? What are you learning?

NATASHA BERTRAND, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER: This community had actually picked up signs that Prigozhin was planning a potentially dramatic military action against Russian defense leaders. Now, it was not clear what form that would take or when it would occur. And the speed with which this happened on Friday night and into Saturday did catch some U.S. officials and some western officials off guard and it resulted in emergency meetings being convened on Friday night, and U.S. officials scrambling to figure out what was going on and crucially how far Prigozhin would be willing to go.

It was also unclear what Prigozhin's ultimate aim was going to be. Was he going to challenge Putin directly or was he just challenging Russia's military leadership? But now U.S. officials are watching very closely to see how Putin continues to react to these events because, obviously, this is one of the most serious challenges to his leadership that he has seen in 20 years of rule there.

So, what U.S. officials are looking at now is does Putin escalate in Ukraine, for example, to show that he has control and that he is a strong man, and is he trying to consolidate power even further after this very dramatic move by Prigozhin. Obviously, U.S. officials are also watching what Prigozhin does.

Is he really going to go into exile in Belarus? Is he going to agree to stay out of Wagner group? Has Wagner group actually been disbanded or is it simply going to be rolled into the Russian military? And Wagner forces who have been told by Prigozhin for quite some time now not to trust Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defense minister, are they going to simply agree to now be under his command?

So, all of these things are what U.S. officials and western officials are discussing now in phone calls, in conversations moving forward. And, obviously, it is a very unpredictable and volatile situation, Wolf.

BLITZER: It certainly is. Natasha, stand by. I will get back to you soon. I want to go to Priscilla over at the White House right now. What are you learning over there, Priscilla? What is the White House saying about all of this as far as we know?

PRISCILLA ALVAREZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Wolf, the White House has consistently said that this is a situation that they were actively monitoring. President Biden has been at Camp David where he has been briefed by his national security team, including National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who had canceled an international trip because of the fast-developing situation in Russia and traveled to Camp David with President Biden where he has been briefing him regularly.

Now, the White House has been cautious as to how much they weigh in on this and what messages they put out there because of concerns that Putin could weaponize what they say and use it as a message against the west. And so, that has been a concern held among officials and the reason why we have seen that they have been very careful about what they have release.

Now, of course, this power struggle could have ramifications on the war in Ukraine. And the overwhelming public message by the White House has been that they are in support of Ukraine and that that remains unchanged. Yesterday, President Biden spoke with the leaders of France, the U.K. and Germany and that is a trio he has talked to frequently over the course of the war in Ukraine.

It's a trio that has been aligned. And so, that was a critical call that he held where the message from that was that they were all watching the situation in Russia and continuing to hold support for Ukraine. Now, Secretary of State Antony Blinken has also made a round of calls, including with the Ukrainian foreign minister.

[06:25:03]

So, as this situation has unfolded, the White House making very clear that they remain in support of Ukraine. Wolf.

BLITZER: All right. Priscilla, thank you. Priscilla Alvarez at the White House. Natasha Bertrand in Washington. We will get back to both of you soon.

The dust is clearly settling in Russia in the aftermath of Prigozhin's rebellion. Coming up, we will walk through how this crisis unfolded and the deal that ended it at least for now.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) WALKER: Hi, everyone. Welcome back on this Sunday to CNN THIS MORNING. We continue to follow the latest developments out of Russia following an armed rebellion by Wagner mercenaries.

BLACKWELL: We will check back in with Wolf Blitzer in just a moment. But, first, let's get caught up on what we know. This morning, Russia experts say the country has been pulled back from the edge of chaos. The Kremlin reached a deal to end an insurrection led by Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. A lot, though, is still unclear. According to the Kremlin, Prigozhin agreed to turn his forces around from a March towards Moscow.

[06:30:15]

WALKER: In exchange, criminal charges will be dropped against Prigozhin who, will go to Belarus, and his troops will not be prosecuted either, but will sign new contracts with Russia's Defense Ministry. Prigozhin's current whereabouts are unknown. CNN's Ivan Watson has more now on the deal and how the crisis unfolded.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voiceover): A weekend of chaos and drama in Russia. Mercenaries declared a mutiny and then called it off in under 24 hours.

YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN, LEADER, WAGNER GROUP (through translator): Those who destroyed our guys today, along with tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I ask no one to put up any resistance. Justice for the troops will be restored and then justice for all of Russia.

WATSON (voiceover): Yevgeny Prigozhin issued a call for rebellion. The head of the Wagner mercenary group accusing top Russian military commanders of gross mismanagement of the war in Ukraine. Then Prigozhin released video of an alleged Russian airstrike on a Wagner camp in Ukraine demanding revenge. Russia's Defense ministry denied the attack. And soon Russia's top prosecutor announced criminal charges against Prigozhin.

Then, in the early hours of Saturday, Prigozhin followed through on his threats, sending his fighters across the border from Ukraine back into Russia. Footage surfaced at dawn showing Wagner fighters surrounding the military headquarters in the southern Russian city of Rostov. Some locals stood nearby watching.

At around 7:30 a.m., Prigozhin was then shown dressing down senior Russian military leaders and issuing demands.

PRIGOZHIN (through translator): Again, we came here. We want to receive the Chief of General Staff and Shoigu. Until they show up, until they show up, we are located here, blockading the city of Rostov and we'll go to Moscow.

WATSON (voiceover): Video showed columns of Wagner troops heading north towards the capital. Along the way, claiming control of military installations in the Voronezh region. Footage later showed at least one Russian helicopter narrowly avoiding a missile.

At 10:00 a.m. Moscow time, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a televised address to the nation, calling the rebellion a stab in the back.

VLADIMIR PUTIN, PRESIDENT, RUSSIA (through translator): All those who deliberately chose the path of treachery, who prepared an armed mutiny, who chose the path of blackmail and terrorist methods, will face inevitable punishment and will answer both to the law and to our people.

WATSON (voiceover): The Kremlin announced counterterrorism measures tightening security in Moscow. But by Saturday night, suddenly a Kremlin reversal. Putin spokesman announced a deal.

Prigozhin released an audio message saying his troops would turn around and go back to field camps to avoid shedding Russian blood. Supporters chanted Wagner as fighters drove out of Rostov, giving Prigozhin handshakes as he left in this SUV. The Kremlin says it's dropped charges and Prigozhin will go to Belarus while promising his fighters contracts with the Russian military. For now, a crisis apparently averted. But this very public betrayal and the mercenary short but unimpeded march on Moscow reveals deep weakness at the heart of the Putin regime.

Ivan Watson, CNN.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLACKWELL: Just ahead, an adviser to the Ukrainian president says Prigozhin almost nullified Vladimir Putin, but the war in Ukraine grinds on. We'll go live to eastern Ukraine for the latest on the fight next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:35:00]

BLITZER: While the world's attention turned to Russian infighting, the country's devastating attacks, brutal attacks on Ukraine, they have continued. Five people were killed in a missile attack on Kyiv, the capital, and two were killed and at least eight others injured when Russian forces shelled settlements in both eastern and southern Ukraine this weekend.

CNN Senior International Correspondent Ben Wedeman is joining us live from Zaporizhzhia in Ukraine right now, the war zone. Ben, Ukraine has also been watching the turmoil in Russia. Update us on the reaction you're getting from Ukrainians to what's unfolding in Russia -- what has unfolded in Russia over the past 24 or 48 hours?

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, there's a saying attributed to Napoleon that says never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake. And so, during the drama, while the drama was unfolding in Russia, the Ukrainians were, by and large fairly quiet, not really commenting in depth on what was going on in Russia. But we did hear a statement later in the day from one Mykhailo Podolyak, who's an adviser to the presidency, who after the drama was over, after Prigozhin had decided to stop his march on Moscow and go back to his bases, this adviser said that Prigozhin almost nullified Putin, that Putin was humiliated by this entire incident.

[06:40:19]

And certainly, this goes in step with what the Ukrainians have been doing for quite some time with a tactic of, for instance, allowing pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters to make incursions into Russian territories, Ukrainian forces, targeting sites within Russia itself, flying drones all the way to Moscow. This is really part of their tactic to undermine Putins's legitimacy, his claim to being the ruler and the man who calls the shots in Russia.

So, while this drama was unfolding, as I said, Ukrainian officials stayed largely quiet. There was a lot of talk about them sitting back eating popcorn and watching what was happening in Russia. Today, however, we're back to reality. As you mentioned, there were those overnight strikes in Kyiv that left five people dead.

We did -- the Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister yesterday did say that in the Bakhmut area, Ukrainian forces had made gains in several small offenses around that now-Russian-occupied town. And now, we're basically waiting to see when Ukraine is going to commit the bulk of its forces to this counter-offensive that is now about two weeks old. Wolf?

BLITZER: So, even in the midst of all of this turmoil inside Russia, I take it that Ben, the Russian military, Putin's military, is still attacking civilian residential areas, not only in Kyiv but elsewhere in Ukraine as well. Is that right?

WEDEMAN: That's correct. It doesn't seem that the war effort really changed in any shape or form. In fact, yesterday, we were in touch with Ukrainian fighters on the front lines in the Bakhmut area, and they said the Russians were still there. The Russians were still firing back. Given that this incident only lasted 24, perhaps a bit longer than that hours, it doesn't really seem that that had any concrete impact on the fighting in Ukraine. Wolf?

BLITZER: All right, very significant. Thanks very much. Ben Wedeman reporting from Zaporizhzhia.

I want to bring in right now Emma Ashford. She's a senior fellow at the Stimson Center and a columnist for Foreign Policy Magazine. Emma, thanks so much for joining us. Let me get your reaction, first of all, to what's going on right now. Could this weekend's challenge to Putin's power in Moscow have any effect, you believe, on the war that's unfolding still in Ukraine?

EMMA ASHFORD, COLUMNIST, FOREIGN POLICY MAGAZINE: It is certainly possible that this could provide a distraction and opening for the Ukrainians to capitalize on in their counter-offensive. That said, this has been such a short incident. The Wagner mercenaries had already been rotated away from the frontline before this started, very few troops were redeployed, so it doesn't seem like there's necessarily a significant military opportunity here. So, maybe the Ukrainians can capitalize on it, but it doesn't seem like it's a certainty.

BLITZER: I understand you say that Prigozhin's mutiny, Emma, set what you call a dangerous precedent for Putin. Is Putin facing a new reality today?

ASHFORD: I think we've certainly learned in the last 48 hours that Putin's hold on power, while apparently still quite strong, is somewhat more brittle than we might have thought. The fact that Prigozhin was able to seize the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov, the fact that he was able to engage in this March on Moscow, that there was a lot of confusion in how the Russian army responded to this, none of those are good signs for Putin. And I think it is a sign that this war is weakening him, even if it doesn't mean we're going to see him lose power anytime soon.

BLITZER: What questions, Emma, do you have about this apparent deal that Prigozhin struck? And will there be more fallout for him within Russia? What do you anticipate?

ASHFORD: I would not like to be Yevgeny Prigozhin at the moment. The deal says that he will go into exile in Belarus. But as we know, opponents of the Kremlin do not tend to live long, fulfilling lives. So, I'm not convinced that the Kremlin will honor its part of that deal.

What is interesting, I think, is that he did get some of what he was asking for. Some of his Wagner forces will remain independent of the Russian military, which had been a difference from what was planned several weeks ago, but I think we probably have not seen the end of this affair and certainly I do not think that the Prigozhin is going to remain a free and independent man for very long.

[06:45:19]

BLITZER: So, what I hear you saying, and correct me if I'm wrong, Emma, that you believe Putin will still continue to order the assassination, the killing of Prigozhin? Is that what you're saying?

ASHFORD: It would not surprise me, yes. I think, you know, Putin's hold is strongest on the security services. You know, the FSB, the SBR. And Prigozhin, once he has moved away from his Wagner mercenaries, once he is in exile, you know, he is much more at risk.

So, I think, you know, this deal, Prigozhin may have gotten some of what he wanted, but I think he's also made a colossal mistake for himself personally in challenging Putin. I doubt that Putin will allow that to stand.

BLITZER: How worried should Prigozhin be that he's in Belarus, which of course is a very close ally to Putin as we all know?

ASHFORD: You know, it's interesting the role that Belarus' Lukashenko apparently played in this -- in talking Prigozhin down, in brokering whatever deal caused him to turn back from Moscow. But again, I think from the point of view of the West, you know, we tend to think of Belarus as an independent state, and it is. But Russia has very strong control inside Belarus. So, this is -- this is not progression going into exile in a, you know, Gulf state like we've seen some dictators do before. This is Prigozhin going to the capital of a country that is extremely closely aligned with Moscow.

BLITZER: Yes, that's really an important point. Emma Ashford, thanks for your expertise. I appreciate it very much. Coming up, an insurrection that ended almost as quickly as it began. But is the damage already done for the Russian President Vladimir Putin? We'll discuss the implications and more when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:50:00]

BLACKWELL: We'll have the latest on the situation in Russia in just a few minutes, but first some other news we're following this -- for you this morning. Canada has launched an investigation into the tragic Titan submersible implosion that killed five people.

WALKER: Investigators say they are looking into whether any criminal, federal, or provincial laws were possibly broken, and we'll be reviewing voice recordings and data related to the incident. CNN's Gloria Pazmino has more.

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KATHY FOX, CHAIR, TRANSPORTATION SAFETY BOARD OF CANADA: Our mandate is to find out what happened and why and to find out what needs to change to reduce the chance or the risk of such occurrences in the future.

GLORIA PAZMINO, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voiceover): Authorities in both the U.S. and Canada are investigating the catastrophic implosion of the Titan. The submersible went missing last Sunday during its expedition to the wreck of the Titanic roughly two miles below the surface of the sea. Authorities believe the submersible imploded, killing everyone on board.

The platform that Titan launched from, rolled back into the harbor Saturday morning along with the Polar Prince, Titans mother ship, carrying a crucial piece of evidence in the investigation.

FOX: Vessels of this size are required to have a voyage data recorder, which records audio that's on the bridge. The content of those voice recordings could be useful in our investigation, but the contents are privileged under Canadian law and therefore I can't share -- we can't share what the voice recordings will say.

PAZMINO (voiceover): The remaining crew members and the families of the five victims who were on board have also returned. They will be interviewed by Canada's Transportation Safety Board as part of its investigation. CLIFF HARVEY, DIRECTOR OF INVESTIGATIONS FOR MARINE, TRANSPORTATION

SAFETY BOARD OF CANADA: Our investigators have worked very, very diligently as we're completing our interviews and our -- with them, those individuals, we're allowing them a chance to leave.

PAZMINO (voiceover): TSB officials say their investigation will not assign blame or determine civil or criminal responsibility. In the meantime, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police has opened a separate investigation to determine if a criminal probe should be conducted.

KENT OSMOND, SUPERINTENDENT, ROYAL CANADIAN MOUNTED POLICE: Such an investigation will proceed only if our examination of the circumstances indicate criminal, federal, or provincial laws may possibly have been broken.

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PAZMINO (on camera): Officials warned that they're still in the early stages of the investigation. And efforts to find more parts of the vessel could still go on for several more days. Reporting in Newfoundland, Gloria Pazmino, CNN.

WALKER: Three San Antonio Police officers are now charged with murder after shooting a woman who is having an apparent mental health crisis inside her own home. Police have released edited video of the moment that shooting started. We're not going to play it, but some may find the events leading up to it disturbing.

BLACKWELL: In the body cam video before the shooting, officers can be seen approaching Melissa Perez as they respond to a call. After chasing her back to her apartment, one officer tries to climb in through a window. Police say another officer opened fire when Perez grabbed a hammer. Now, the others joined in moments later when they say she charged toward them holding that hammer.

Now. the arrest says -- the arrest warrant, rather, says that Perez was holding a hammer. She did not pose a risk of serious bodily injury or death because there was a wall, a window blocked by a television, and a locked door between the officers and the woman. Now, police have not yet released the full, unedited bodycam videos. All three officers are suspended without pay.

A train derailment in Montana caused the bridge across the Yellowstone River to collapse and sent several cars into the water. Train officials say some of the damaged cars were carrying hot asphalt and molten sulfur.

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WALKER: But authorities investigating the accident say no one was injured and there is no immediate threat. Local water treatment plants are taking appropriate precautions and people living in the area have been asked to conserve water. The cause of the derailment has yet to be determined.

Still ahead, U.S. intelligence officials believe the Wagner group's leader had been planning to challenge Putin for a while. But now that a deal has been struck, what happens next? And how does that impact the fight on the battlefield in Ukraine?

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