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Wagner Chief Cuts Deal, Calls Off Insurrection; Putin's Grip In Power Under Serious Threat After Wagner Armed Rebellion; White House Continuous To Monitor Situation In Russia; Wagner Chief Cuts Deal; Insurrection Led by Prigozhin Comes To Abrupt End; Kremlin Unaware Of Prigozhin's Whereabouts; Kremlin Says Prigozhin Will Be Going To Belarus; Southern U.S. Under Heat Alerts; 55 Million Plus People Under Threat For Severe Storms; Ukrainian Official: Prigozhin "Almost Nullified" Putin; How Russian Insurrection Is Impacting The War In Ukraine. Aired 7-8a ET

Aired June 25, 2023 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[07:00:04]

AMARA WALKER, CNN ANCHOR: Good Sunday morning, everyone. Welcome to the special edition of CNN This Morning. We have the latest developments out of Russia after Wagner mercenary forces ended their rebellion against Russian President Vladimir Putin.

I'm Amara Walker.

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Victor Blackwell. Wolf Blitzer is in London. Here's where things stand this morning. It appears Russia has been pulled back from the brink of chaos for now. The country struck a deal to end an armed insurrection by the head of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin. It was the most serious challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin's iron-fisted regime since he came into power more than 20 years ago.

WALKER: But the uprising, or at least this part of it was over almost as quickly as it began. The Kremlin announced an agreement to end the standoff. And we learned just a short time ago that Chechens special forces deployed to the region are withdrawing. And the Wagner chief confirmed that his troops were turning around and ending their march towards Moscow.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN, WAGNER CHIEF (through translator): Therefore, realizing all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be shed from one of the sides, we turn our columns around and leave in the opposite direction to the field camps, according to the plan.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WALKER: Russia says it is dropping charges against Prigozhin. He agreed to leave Russia for neighboring Belarus, but there's no word on where he is right now. BLACKWELL: As for Vladimir Putin, experts say he emerges from this crisis weaker among world leaders and domestically. Democratic Congressman Jason Crow serves on the Intelligence and Foreign Affairs Committees. He says both Putin and Prigozhin are worse off.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. JASON CROW (D), COLORADO: If anybody thinks that either Putin or Prigozhin is going to walk away from this unscathed, they're fooling themselves. So the idea that Prigozhin's going to go to Belarus and retire in peace, and the Wagner mercenaries are just going to return to the battlefield and Putin's going to go back to situation normal, it's just not going to happen, right? Putin has been extremely weakened by this.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLACKWELL: Now Moscow has stepped back from a major crisis, but experts warned that the danger is not over.

WALKER: That's right. Wolf Blitzer is back with us from London.

Good morning, Wolf. Russia obviously appears a bit calmer this morning, but there are so many things we just don't know right now. So there is a sense of unease about what comes next.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN HOST: There certainly is, Amara. Good morning to you. Good morning to you, Victor as well.

Russia experts say the rare uprising will likely have lasting impacts indeed. We're covering this truly historic moment in Russia with our reporters and our analysts around the world. Experts are warning that even though Russian President Putin was able to diffuse this immediate crisis, at least temporarily, the danger is not over by any means.

CNN International Diplomatic Editor Nic Robertson is joining us live right now. So what do we know, Nic, about the situation in Russia right now?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Well, the immediate after effects of the Wagner PMC Rising are pushing back now from that road that they'd taken to Moscow. They armed a column of vehicles that Prigozhin had sent from Rostov-on-Don in the South to Moscow.

They've been seen turning south, driving back south. Prigozhin himself disappeared off into the night from Rostov-on-Don. Allegedly, we're told, because that was a part of the deal, on his way to Belarus. Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, has taken an interesting role here, apparently leading the negotiations to head off what could have been a very, very bloody situation.

And we know how bloody it could have been because Ramzan Kadyrov's Chechen forces, that Special Forces pulling back overnight from Rostov-on-Don, fierce fighters like Wagner, very well battle hardened. So that could have been a tough fight. But the fact that Lukashenko made this deal and not Putin, the fact that Prigozhin thought that he could rise up and have this insurrection and challenged Putin's authority, albeit, complaining about the Defense Minister, shows that the war in Ukraine is giving opportunity to opportunists, thugs, if you will, private military contractor leaders like Prigozhin who see an opportunity for perhaps more power and more influence, and not to have their troops signed up to Russian military control.

So the immediate aftermath is just going to be unclear for some time, I think. But the effects on the ground, the roads are being patched up, the troops are disappearing. So the immediate threats, they're dissipating.

BLITZER: Nic Robertson reporting for us. Thank you, Nic.

I want to go to CNN's Fred Pleitgen right now. He's joining us from Berlin. With Prigozhin heading into exile, at least temporarily, what's happening inside the Wagner group right now? What are you learning, Fred?

[07:05:03]

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL: Well, I think a lot of things are absolutely unclear for the Wagner group. What happens to a lot of their fighters and what happens to the future of the Wagner group as well, but also, quite frankly, Wolf, to Yevgeny Prigozhin's entire gigantic business operations in many fields that he has around the world.

First of all, we know what we heard from the Kremlin, from the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov yesterday, where he said that the Wagner fighters, because of their achievements on the battlefield and because. You know, for many Russians, they are quite well respected. I think we saw that on the ground yesterday, with a lot of people cheering on the Wagner fighters as they were leaving.

A lot of people congratulating those Wagner fighters. They do have a special status among many Russians, that they can then sign up to join the Russian military to get -- become part of the Russian military structure and infrastructure. And that was something that the military leadership in Russia has been pushing for for a while.

The Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, he came out a couple of weeks ago and he said that the private military companies all have to sign contracts with the defense ministry. Now, Yevgeny Prigozhin had said that he wasn't going to do that, and that was certainly one of the things that also escalated, if you will, the big fight between those two individuals, between the Defense Minister and between Yevgeny Prigozhin, but only one of those things.

But the big question now is, what happens to Yevgeny Prigozhin's gigantic business empire? You're talking about dealings in Africa, if you're looking at diamonds and also gold, but also training African forces. There's a huge military footprint that Wagner has in Africa, in the Middle East as well. And then one of the things that we haven't looked at also far is the media empire also that Yevgeny Prigozhin has.

He's, of course, one of the people that the U.S. says meddled heavily in the 2016 presidential election. And was indicted for that by the United States. So, Yevgeny Prigozhin going to step back from all of that, from his exile, that it realistically is in Belarus? Is he still going to play some sort of role?

What's going to happen to the immediate commanders that he had as well? A lot of them in their own right play, a big role in the military operations of Wagner, not just in Ukraine, but elsewhere as well.

There are definitely a lot more unanswered questions than questions that we've gotten, but of course one of the things we have to keep in mind is that this is a situation, as Nic said, that was defused very quickly yesterday. Certainly, a lot of the details aren't known yet and a lot of the details will be ironed out.

But one of the things that we can say that for Yevgeny Prigozhin who seemed as though he was at the height of his power, with the big role that Wagner was playing in Ukraine, definitely a very hard and very steep fall for him in a very short period of time, Wolf.

BLITZER: Very true indeed. All right, Fred Pleitgen in Berlin, thank you very much.

Joining us now, CNN Military Analyst Retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling. He's a former commander of the U.S. Army and Europe and the Seventh Army. General, thanks so much for joining us. I know you say Putin and Prigozhin have both come out weaker after the events of the past 24 to 48 hours. So what does that mean right now based on your assessment for Russia?

LT. GEN. MARK HERTLING, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: A couple things, Wolf. First of all, they are certainly both very much weaker. Secondly, you have this large force of Prigozhin's Wagner group about somewhere, or estimates between 25,000 and 40,000 soldiers are now either out of the fight or pushed aside or waiting for another operations.

And that's a huge chunk. That's probably 10 percent to 15 percent of the total number of military that Russia has facing Ukraine. This all comes at a time when we can talk personalities and how dysfunctional the hierarchy is in Moscow. It also comes at a time. It is extremely difficult for the rest of the Russian military.

They are preparing defensive positions. There are other soldiers, not the ones in the Wagner group, but other soldiers and normal units are questioning what's going on. They have lost trust in their leaders because of this divide. The continuing rift are going to cause more problems within the Russian force.

They're all in a defensive position now waiting for Ukraine to continue their momentum and their assaults. So this is certainly going to affect not just what goes on in the Kremlin, which has been dysfunctional since the beginning of this war, but also what's going on in the battlefield. Poor leadership at the junior level has been a mark of the Russian Army.

Now we're seeing dysfunctional leadership at the senior level where they can't even keep control of part of their force. In addition to that, I would say, it's fascinating to note from a military perspective, how easily the Prigozhin Wagner group went into the territory of Russia and were basically untouched as they went to Rostov-on-Don to Boryslav and heading toward Moscow before they were stopped.

There was literally no forces that were stopping them as they did this. So it's an open pathway and it shows the lack of defenses inside of Russia itself.

[07:10:07]

But at the same time, Prigozhin, ultimately, General, backed down from the Wagner advance on Moscow. This clearly took some planning. Do you think Prigozhin's goal was as stated, a reshuffle of Russia's top military leadership?

HERTLING: Yes, that was certainly his goal. Not just the military leadership, but the civilian leadership especially, Minister of Defense Shoigu, the two of them cannot stand each other. And the fact that Shoigu was attempting to co-opt, Prigozhin group and other -- and any of the other groups that are professional -- or the mercenary groups, if you will.

It shows just kind of the tension that exists. But one other thing, Wolf, I'd suggest, this ain't over yet. There's still things happening. We have not seen the end of the kind of dialogue and dysfunction between Prigozhin and others like him, toward the Minister of Defense and Mr. Putin.

It certainly shows a weakness at the senior leadership of the Russian government, and that's Mr. Putin himself. He has been harmed significantly by this, and the walls are closing in in a bunch of other areas around Mr. Putin in this so-called special military operation.

BLITZER: At Putin too, and I say this, specifically, he's been deeply embarrassed with the Russian people. He had gone on Russian television, as you know, General, and said that Prigozhin and his mercenary soldiers had committed treason.

He used the word treason and they will pay a price for this. But now he's letting Prigozhin go into exile in neighboring Belarus, a free man. And he's now saying also that these troops, the Wagner troops can sign up and join, the, the regular Russian army. where's the punishment that he had said would take place?

HERTLING: Well, not only that Wolf, but remember, Prigozhin at one time was given a hero of Russia metal. So he was a hero for a very long time. Yesterday morning, he was being called a traitor. By yesterday afternoon, there's no accountability whatsoever.

As far as the members of the Wagner Group, Wolf, I'm going to put it in perspective. These guys were considered even as brutal and as unskilled or unskilled and untrained and unprofessional as they are, they were some of the best within the Russian Army. So asking them to join normal infantry units would be like asking a ranger or a Delta force or a SEAL to just go to some infantry unit and spend the rest of their time on the front lines.

It's just unfathomable from a military perspective what might happen to the Wagner group in the future, and that's why I say this isn't over yet. There is going to be internal rebellion within the military, within the army itself, not just at the senior leader level. There's a lack of trust now in all of the leaders of the Russian force, especially Mr. Putin by the soldiers wearing the uniform.

BLITZER: In many respects, it may only be just beginning right now. It's by no means over. We're watching all of these truly fascinating developments unfold.

Retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling, thank you very much.

Still ahead, what lesson has Putin learned from this uprising? And how concerned should he be about the possibility of another one? We'll discuss that and more right after a quick break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:17:37]

BLITZER: This morning, Wagner mercenary fighters are steadily withdrawing from Voronezh (ph) region after mercenary Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin agreed to back down from his armed insurrection. But for embattled Russian President Vladimir Putin, this crisis could have a lasting effect on his ability to lead Russia.

Here with us right now is Washington Post Opinion Columnist Max Boot, he has a new op-ed this morning entitled, "Putin Finally Learned His Lesson". Max, so much -- thanks so much for joining us.

In your column, a very important, significant column, indeed, you write this, "Putin is learning what so many tyrants have learned before him. When you unleash the dogs of war, they can come back to bite you". How much has this armed rebellion do you believe, Max, actually weakened Putin?

MAX BOOT, COLUMNIST, THE WASHINGTON POST: I think it's hard to say, Wolf, exactly how much it has weakened Putin, but it's pretty clear that it has because, you know, he -- his rule depends on this aura of absolute power. The man that nobody can challenge, and anybody who does winds up dead or in jail.

But you just saw in the last few days that Prigozhin did in fact challenge Putin, and we had this amazing spectacle of these mutinous mercenary troops marching on Moscow, and eventually they turned back, but they didn't turn back because they were smashed by the Russian military.

In fact, there was very little indication of the Russian military even being willing to fight the Wagner troops. They were ultimately turned back because of a deal brokered by Putin's sidekick, Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus. And, you know, by all accounts, Prigozhin, gets out of this. He's not going to a prison cell. He's not going 6-feet under. He's going to Belarus.

And, you know, the fighters that he led will get an amnesty. So, I think this was clearly a sign of the weakness of the Putin regime. It's not quite as solid as it seems from the outside.

BLITZER: Yes, good point. How badly has Putin mistepped by allowing Prigozhin to accrue so much power? Prigozhin attacks on the Russian Defense Ministry, have been ramping up, as we all know, for months.

BOOT: This is kind of the way that Putin has managed this whole regime over two decades. That he always has competing power centers. He's always playing oligarchs off against one another, different chieftains within the government against one another. And he's kind of the ultimate arbiter of decision making.

[07:20:06]

But I think that model has been breaking down under the pressure of this losing war. And remember, Russia is losing this war. They are suffering horrifying casualties, the likes of which they have not seen since World War II and for very little gain. And that's kind of what you would expect to happen in the cauldron of a losing war, is that there is a lot of dissatisfaction.

There's a lot of grumbling, and you're seeing that that competition between Wagner and the Russian Defense Ministry, it got out of control. Putin could not keep a lid on it anymore, and all of a sudden, you know, this Frankenstein monster, the Wagner group that he had created, turned on him and started marching towards the Russian capital.

So I think clearly that shows that Putin is not as in control of the situation as he would like to think.

BLITZER: Which is absolutely true. So where does this leave, Max, the Wagner group, which has been, as we all know, critical to Putin's war in Ukraine, and also by the way, to Russian operations elsewhere around the world including specifically in the Middle East end Africa?

BOOT: That's a great question, Wolf, and I think the answer is unclear. At least it's unclear to me what will happen to the Wagner group. I mean, you know, Prigozhin is still going to be around. He's only in Belarus. That's not that far away. He can easily run the Wagner group from Belarus.

There was, you know, there was talk about having the Wagner fighters who are loyal to the Russian Defense Ministry, but what that means in practice in terms of operational control, those fighters, it's very unclear.

I will say this, Wolf, that if the Wagner group is no longer on the front lines on zero line in Ukraine. I think that'll be a significant blow to the Russian war effort because the Wagner troops have been some of the most determined, and the ones who are willing to suffer horrifying casualties in Putin's brutal cause much more so than the regular troops or, you know, conscripts and have low morale.

So, you know, whatever happens, I think this is going to lead to less effective Russian military. And the Russian military already wasn't that effective. So I think, you know, we --it's very hard to judge full-scale ramifications because we don't know, you know, exactly what's going to happen with the Wagner group. But I think this does create the potential for giving the Ukrainians an advantage as they press forward with their counteroffensive.

BLITZER: Yes, I suspect you're right. What are the implications, Max, of Putin being so deeply, deeply embarrassed out there on the global stage?

BOOT: Well, again, I think this dents his aura of being this superman. And in fact, I think that aura has already been in decline over the past 16 months because, you know, everybody had more respect and fear for Putin before the Ukrainian evasion than after the Ukrainian invasion because it's revealed the massive deficiencies in his military forces that they have been ground to a halt and in fact have been pushed back in many areas by the Ragtag Ukrainian military.

So, you know, I don't think that Putin is going to inspire quite as much fear in the future as he has in the past. And I think what this also indicates is that, you know, it's very possible that time is actually on the side of the Ukrainians because, you know, the conventional wisdom has been that time is on Russia's side because it's a larger country.

Ukraine is dependent on outside help, and the other countries may lose interest in supporting Ukraine. But, in fact, I think what this is revealing, Wolf, is something incredibly important, which is the strength of democracy at war, and that's Ukraine. They have a democratically elected leader who has near unanimous support.

The Ukrainian people are united behind the war effort, whereas in Russia, you know, there's surface support for the war, but very little enthusiasm and certainly no enthusiasm for the Putin regime. Putin engenders fear, but he doesn't engender love or loyalty. And you saw that as soon as the Wagner troops challenged him, most of the population and the Russian Armed Forces kind of stood on the sidelines.

They weren't mobilizing to say Putin. So I think, you know, I think this shows you something very important about the hidden fragility of a dictatorship and the hidden strength of a democracy like Ukraine.

BLITZER: Yes. Excellent, excellent analysis. Max Boot, thank you so very much.

Still ahead, U.S. intelligence officials believe the Wagner chief had been planning a major challenge to Russia's top military leadership for quite some time. But they were surprised the U.S. intelligence officials by how fast things actually escalated. We're going to talk to a top national security expert when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WALKER: Welcome back everyone to CNN This Morning. We are continuing to follow the latest developments out of Russia, following an armed rebellion by Wagner mercenaries.

BLACKWELL: We'll check back in with Wolf in just a moment, but first, let's get you caught up with the very latest. Russian state media is reporting the Chechen Special Forces is deployed to Southwestern Russia to help the Kremlin end the Wagner insurrection, and they're now withdrawing. The Armed Rebellion ended with Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin withdrawing his private mercenary troops and turning back from his marsh to Moscow. But there still is a lot that is uncertain about the situation.

WALKER: The Biden administration is keeping close tabs on the situation in Russia this morning. The White House is staying mostly tightlipped about the situation, being careful not to say anything that Moscow could see as interfering in escalating the crisis.

BLACKWELL: We're joined now by Natasha Bertrand and Priscilla Alvarez. Priscilla, to you first, the White House is staying quiet. They are though in constant discussions with U.S. allies. What are you hearing?

PRICILLA ALVAREZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: That's right, Victor. And they're doing that as they're actively monitoring this situation. Now, President Biden just yesterday spoke with the leaders of France, Germany, and the U.K. in which all three of them or four of them discussed that they were watching the situation in Russia as well as reaffirming their support for Ukraine.

[7:30:06]

Now, it wasn't just President Biden making calls yesterday but also his top officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken who spoke with G7 allies, E.U. counterparts, as well as the Ukrainian foreign ministry. So, it was clear that this power struggle could have ramifications on the war in Ukraine. And the White House and administration officials were making calls to their allies and partners as this was all unfolding.

Now, President Biden is at Camp David with his national security team, including National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who canceled an international trip to travel to Camp David with President Biden and brief him on this fast-developing situation.

So, while the White House has stayed mum because of concerns that anything they do say could be weaponized by Putin, they have been talking behind closed doors to leaders across the world as they all monitor what is happening on the ground.

And we should note that U.S. officials were watching as early as January that there was an internal power struggle that was bubbling and officials believe that the tensions would mount. We saw that unfold just yesterday. So, this is something that U.S. officials are going to keep tabs on, especially the White House and President Biden continuing to keep tabs and get briefed on this on a regular basis.

WALKER: All right. Thanks for that. And let's go now to Natasha, because, you know, there is a lot of things that we don't know regarding this deal and also the whereabouts of Prigozhin. What is the U.S. Intelligence Community is saying this morning?

NATASHA BERTRAND, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER: Yes, Amara. So, the U.S. Intelligence Community, they actually did see signs as recently as early this week that Prigozhin was potentially planning some kind of dramatic action against Russian military leaders, and there were actually signs, according to one western intelligence official, that Prigozhin and Wagner forces were actually massing weapons and ammunition to prepare for some kind of challenge to Russian defense leaders.

Now, it was not clear what that would actually look like, would he actually storm a Russian city, for example, or would he simply challenge Russian leaders inside Ukraine. Not clear. And it was also unclear when this would actually take place, and that's why we saw U.S. officials kind of scrambling on Friday night and into Saturday to figure out what exactly was happening with emergency meetings being convened across the government and, of course, senior U.S. officials canceling international travel to stay in D.C. and monitor the events.

But U.S. officials are now looking at how this is actually is going to, of course, affect Putin and how he oversees the country. Is he going to try to consolidate power? Is he going to try to escalate things in Ukraine to make an example out of what happened with Wagner and try to show the world that he actually still is in control? U.S. officials don't know at this point whether Prigozhin is actually going to remain in exile in Belarus.

Is he -- where is he at this point? They simply don't know right now. And so, these are all things that they are going to be looking at moving forward because the challenge that Prigozhin posed to Putin is perhaps the most significant -- he faced over the last two decades. So, they are looking at all of this, seeing how, of course, it will impact Russia's military and Kremlin leadership here and seeing whether Putin tries to consolidate power even further as a result. Amara, Boris (ph) -- or Amara, Victor. Sorry.

BLACKWELL: That's all right. Natasha Bertrand, Priscilla Alvarez, thank you very Wolf Blitzer back with us from London. Wolf, lots of questions about what this means for the future. But we are now seeing that this wasn't totally spontaneous.

BLITZER: You are absolutely right, Victor. Amara, good morning to you as well. I want to talk a little bit more about the intelligence leading up to the Russian insurrection. Our national security analyst, the former assistant secretary over the Department of Homeland Security, Juliette Kayyem, is joining us right now.

Can you explain, Juliette, what goes into these intelligence assessments, why still came as a surprise even when U.S. and western officials had been watching Prigozhin make preparations, clearly preparations for this kind of move? JULIETTE KAYYEM, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST AND FORMER ASSISTANT SECRETARY, DHS: Well, the surprise would have been about the exact timing. And so, you have to think a lot of intelligence gathering is either human intelligence, rumors, things that people -- our people or people who are working for us are hearing on the ground, some of it will be signal intelligence, what we are picking up, thoughts, planning that is going on by the leadership of the Wagner Group in terms of what their capabilities and what their intentions are. The exact date may not have been known to us about when it was going to happen.

But even though we had sort of an understanding of the divisions that were going on, and they were played out pretty publicly as early as January, I would put a significant date about two weeks ago, June 10th, that is when defense ministry in Russia basically demanded of the Wagner Group to essentially sign contracts away.

[07:35:00]

Now, if you are the leader of that group and you have a global empire, that is a very bad thing because control is essentially all Prigozhin has at this stage and he has assets all around the world. So, June 10th really did mark, I think, an escalation. And when he finally went forward would have been maybe unknown to us and the quickness by both which he went forward and then he was repelled was just played out in considerably faster than, I think, anyone expected.

BLITZER: Yes. Good point. Prigozhin, as we know, had spent months railing against some of Putin's top military leaders, especially over the defense ministry. To what extent does it seem Putin was actually monitoring all of this?

KAYYEM: Yes. He -- Putin clearly knew this, and I think that that explains the June 10th directive. He is worried about reliability of the most important and, I think, most aggressive aspects of his capacity in Ukraine from -- you know, looking at it now, why didn't he do anything, right, at that stage? And there's only two explanations. One is, is that he didn't have the internal support to do something, and that would suggest a lot of disruption within his power -- his power hold.

The other is that he's fighting a war in Ukraine. If he goes against the Wagner Group, he is in trouble. He can't fight that war. From the United States' perspective, you know, I think that there's two important reasons why this is a significant series of events.

I mean, one is clearly Ukraine. Whatever is happening to Russia means it's not happening in Ukraine. That's good for Ukraine's counteroffensive. But, of course, and this has been the specter over the last 48 hours is, you know, a nuclear power like Russia being destabilized, how this unfolded, who would be in charge, is just something that is worrisome.

I'm not -- I don't want to raise anyone's concerns, it's just, you know, look, we have military-to-military conversations. There's -- you know, there's ways in which militaries communicate to each other. If that had been disrupted or in chaos, it's just worrisome from the U.S.'s perspective. So, their interest over the course of the last 48 hours would have been both Ukraine and then, of course, the nuclear capacity of Russia.

BLITZER: How might, Juliette, have actually played out if Prigozhin had not turned his Wagner mercenaries around and stopped their move towards Moscow?

KAYYEM: That is a -- I mean, that was the scenario 36 hours ago that, I think, probably was the most worrisome from the U.S. perspective. I mean, one is, obviously, it would have impacted the war in Ukraine. But, you know, this was not a populist movement. This wasn't Tiananmen Square. The Wagner Group is horrible. They are thugs. They have no -- you know, their mission -- when people are trying to explain this, like, their mission is just a pay check. I mean, they are paid to kill. They have no ideology.

And so, if they had come into power or there had been some disruption or chaos or civil unrest within the Kremlin, how that unfolded wouldn't necessarily be, oh, well, the alternative to Putin is a good thing. It wasn't a good thing. It was equally bad. And from the U.S.'s perspective that's just -- as I had said, it's just that kind of disruption puts everyone on notice because of Russia's military capacities outside much Ukraine.

BLITZER: How worried, Juliette, should the U.S. and the NATO allies, western allies be? How worried should they be about the security of Russia's nuclear arsenal, specifically the smaller tactical nuclear weapons?

KAYYEM: Yes. Well, we have been worried since the beginning of the Ukraine war. I mean, obviously, Putin is toying and playing with it, but hasn't acted. There's also nuclear facilities that we have seen come under some conflict or, you know, are sort of basically battlefields, and that is dangerous from just the perspective of radiation leak.

Look, since the beginning of the Ukraine war and since Putin is doing this with no strategy except for to win, it is worrisome from the perspective of would he use something tactical? I don't worry about the big things. But would he use something tactical? And I think that is the concern moving forward, is how does he coalesce power and is it an assertion of something that you and I would view as insane, you know, immoral and dangerous? Is it some assertion of a strength that he gets through a tactical nuclear weapon? I don't think that would be his strategy.

[07:40:00]

He's got to keep his own army together and it is clear he doesn't have that. So, his focus is now, can he keep his own army together as there's a counteroffensive in Ukraine? That's plenty for him to handle, and I think, therefore, may minimize any nuclear concerns we have at this stage.

BLITZER: Yes. What I have been told is that U.S. officials are deeply concerned about all this talk of Russia deploying tactical nuclear weapons to neighboring Belarus, potentially to use against Ukraine. That's a very worrisome development indeed.

Juliette Kayyem, as always, thank you very much.

Still ahead, we'll discuss the historic nature of the Wagner insurrection and what it means for Russia. A lot more coming up after a quick break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:45:00]

BLITZER: A truly stunning moment out there on the global stage. The most serious challenge to Vladimir Putin's reign in his more than two decades in power.

To discuss all of this and more, let's bring in Nathan Hodge, he's a CNN editor here in London right now, but was also a former bureau chief for CNN in Moscow. He knows a lot about what's going on. Nathan, Thanks so much for joining us.

Prigozhin claimed he was targeting the Russian military leadership not necessarily Putin himself, but help us better understand just how unprecedented this moment is for the Russian president.

NATHAN HODGE, CNN EDITOR: Yes. I mean, Wolf, first of all, I think the thing that jumps out to me is, you know, how the Kremlin's formidable spin machine will be handling all of this, because the Kremlin has, over the course of more than two decades, been building up the image of Putin as almost this sort of infallible strong man. So, the man on horseback, the man of action, the decider, the person who has the reins of state and is a steady hand. And here, Prigozhin's confrontation with Putin and this march by Wagner forces on Moscow just flies, you know, completely in the face of this carefully constructed edifice.

You know, it was over two decades ago during the Second Chechen War Putin raised his public profile by showing that he was going to be a tough guy, that he was going to waste them in the outhouse, the term -- the tough guy talk that he used for taking on Chechen separatists at the time.

But now, the person who has sort of displaced him on Russia's stage as the tough talker, as the straight shooter, as the uber nationalist has been Yevgeny Prigozhin. Somebody who sort of speaks in this kind of criminal argot, who really has commanded in a lot of ways where he previously, before the full scale-scale invasion of Ukraine, had almost no public profile.

The Kremlin didn't acknowledge his activities and basically kept him at arm's length. So, you know, this has been an extraordinary -- you know, it's not even a dent, it's massive damage to Putin's stature and his public image as the person who can't be challenged, Wolf.

BLITZER: Yes, good point. We saw those images, and I am sure you did as well, of Russians actually cheering, cheering Prigozhin. What does support for Prigozhin look like among Russian fighters, the military, and then across Russia more broadly?

HODGE: Well, Wolf, I think, again, it's hard to gauge because we don't have a lot of reliable public polling in Russia at the moment. It's more or less impossible to publicly criticize the Russian military. So, I think if you get a phone call from a pollster saying, we'd like to know if you approve or disapprove of the president's actions or the war in Ukraine, you're going to think twice about it.

You know, so I think that, generally speaking, Prigozhin hasn't been that -- he hasn't figured that large. But state media over the course of, you know, the past many months have been pumping up Wagner, both on, you know, these Telegram channels by Russian war correspondents as well as state TV basically making him into, you know, this, again, ruthless tough guy hero whose kind of looks like sort of almost like the villain from Central Casting who is taking the fight to Ukraine.

For instance, the battle for Bakhmut got a lot of air time and it did significantly raise his profile and it's hard to say how large those crowds really are in Rostov. You know, but clearly, he has raised, you know, his public profile in Russia, Wolf.

BLITZER: He certainly has. Nathan Hodge, thanks so much for your expertise.

And be sure to tune in later this morning to "State of the Union." Dana Bash will be joined by the Secretary of State Antony Blinken. That's at 9:00 a.m. Eastern right here on CNN.

And still to come, the Kremlin says Prigozhin will be going to Belarus, neighboring Belarus, but the insurrection may have lessened Putin's iron grip on power at the same time. We'll be taking a closer look at that and more when we come back.

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WALKER: It is hot out there. More than 50 million people are under threat for extreme heat in parts of the south today. In some places, it's going to feel as hot as 120 degrees. And the heat is already blamed. Are you feeling hot because I told you that? At least two deaths we're talking about in Texas.

BLACKWELL: A father and his teenage stepson died after hiking in extreme heat in Big Ben National Park. Now, officials say the temperatures during the day in Big Ben hover between 110 and 119. CNN Meteorologist Allison Chinchar is with us now.

So, it's not just the extreme heat we're tracking, but also the threats for severe storms. Tell us about them.

ALLISON CHINCHAR, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Yes. It's going to be very interesting day across different parts of the country. But let's begin with the heat. Look, we know it's summer. This is the hot time of the year, but it's about acclimation. A lot of people really haven't quite acclimated to those extreme temperatures just yet. So, it can be a shock to the system.

The main focus here is going to be across the southern tier of the U.S. We've got nine states under either a heat advisory or an excessive heat advisory for today. And some of them it's likely going to be several days because in some cases these temperatures are only continue to rise in the coming days.

Take Houston, for example, 100 for the high today, getting up to 102 by the time we get to Tuesday. Dallas going from 101 to 103. San Antonio topping out at 104, that's 10 degrees warmer than they normally would be this time of year. But take a look at Dallas, again, these numbers just keep going up as we head into the middle portion of the upcoming week before they finally start to drop back. But even by next weekend, those temperatures are still above normal, just maybe not quite as normal as they are now.

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And then, you factor in the humidity, you've got a lot of those feels like temperature where it's the actual air temperature and the humidity combined. You're talking some of these areas, Dallas, it's going to feel like 113, 114 and some areas even higher than that.

The other areas where you could maybe hope to cool down, it's only in the form of rain. We've got rain today in the Midwest, the Northeast as well as the Southeast. But we also have the potential for some severe storms mixed in. The main threats are going to be large hail, damaging winds and, yes, the potential for some tornadoes stretching from Michigan all the way back down to Louisiana.

WALKER: All right. Allison Chinchar, thank you for watching that for us.

Still ahead, much more on the Russian insurrection and how it's impacting the war in Ukraine. We'll be back in just a moment.

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