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CNN This Morning

Florida Prepares for the Storm; Brian Aungst is Interviewed about the Florida Storm; McCarthy Impeachment Strategy; Average Forecast Track Errors. Aired 8:30-9a ET

Aired August 29, 2023 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:30:00]

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN ANCHOR: Like we said earlier, the highest storm surge is expected to happen in the big bend area, in Taylor, Dixie, Beve Counties. That is two feet taller than this wall behind me. And for perspective, this is a 12-foot ladder. I'm 5'11". The wall behind me, this ladder is 12 feet. The water could tower over the average person. Could reach to the top of a bedroom or a bathroom. People in as-risk areas have been told to evacuate. That's why. Take it seriously. That is a lot of water. The velocity also not accounted for just in terms of gallons or amount. A huge component.

Sara.

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: That is such a good illustration of what happens when these storm surges come in. And you look at that, what are you, 6 feet tall? Like, that is -- 5'11"? Is that what I heard? It shows you just how high that water can get. And it's coming at you really fast.

MATTINGLY: Yes.

SIDNER: So, there is no time for you to get away, which is why there are now 20 counties that are in some state of evacuation orders. They're either mandatory orders or there are voluntary orders. And what that means for a lot of people in different counties is, you don't have to go, as we're hearing from officials, hundreds of miles away. You don't have to go to another state. Sometimes it's just a few miles away. Away from the coast. Away from where this storm surge is going to happen. It's in some capacity. It will be smaller in some places and larger in others. You don't want to be caught in it.

You need to be thinking about that now. We understand that in St. Pete we're expecting to see some of those outer bands coming around 4:00 p.m. today. And by the morning, Wednesday morning, we are going to see the real strength of this hurricane hitting the west coast of Florida.

Where exactly? Well, I have someone that can sort of talk to you about that. Our Derek Van Dam, meteorologist and reporter extraordinaire, who is right there on the beach. He is watching this from the sky and he is watching this from the ground at beach level.

Let us know what's going on, Derek. DEREK VAN DAM, AMS CERTIFIED METEOROLOGIST: Yes. Yes, Sara, check this

out. I'm going to have my camera man point towards the warm Gulf of Mexico waters. And, you know, I could walk literally for several hundred feet and I would only have water up to my knees here. This is a very shallow, shallow basin. And that water is so -- this coastline is so susceptible to storm surge, not only because the hurricane is going to be feeding off of those above average water temperatures, but because of the nature of this coastline.

And I've got a drone shot to help put that into perspective. You saw Phil Mattingly's great representation of what 12 feet of storm surge. Well, let me show you why this coastal area is so susceptible to storm surge. Take you to the air and show you a little bit about why this area is just so prone to a storm surge event. And it is because of the fact that the coastline here just goes on literally for miles and it is so shallow all the way out into the - into the waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Now, eight to 12 feet, near Cedar Key, remember, Hurricane Hermine, that was back in 2016, that was a category one, and that brought six feet of storm surge to Cedar Key. Now we're projecting a major hurricane. That's a category three or higher. And that could bring significant impacts to that area.

So, what you're looking at now is Tampa Bay. And Tampa Bay here, we have the official forecast of around four to seven feet. The air force base there just south of the city. We've got the coastal areas, the coastal waterways. This area near Clearwater. This is a very prone region as well. These intercoastal waterways have the potential to see that four to seven feet of water as well.

But notice, as we move a little further north into the Cedar Key region, you're seeing a lot more oranges, a lot more reds. And that is indicating our eight to 12-foot storm surge that is potential into Cedar Key. Something no one wants to see. But that is the reality that we are facing here.

And, Sara, you know, you talked about the force as you were tossing to me, about the force of storm surge. No one really talks about that. It's 1,700 pounds. That's what a cubic yard of water weighs. So, can you imagine, eight to 12 feet of water rushing in on to the shoreline with that amount of force, that amount of pressure. No one could withstand that. And that is why there are mandatory evacuations that line this coastline.

Sara.

SIDNER: We are seeing these gorgeous pictures, Derek. Thank you for giving those to us from the ground and now from the sky.

When we look at this beach and we look at it from above, it is pristine and it's beautiful. Will this be completely covered in water as this storm surge gets closer if the hurricane wobbles closer to Clearwater?

VAN DAM: Look, we -- our official forecast calls for four to seven feet of inundation. That's above normally dry land. Now, there's a couple of other complicating factors here that we haven't had the chance to discuss yet, but there is a supermoon that could coincide with the arrival of Idalia. This is just terrible timing.

[08:35:02]

But a full moon, we know how that has a greater tug, a greater force on the tides.

Now, it is minimal when you're talking about the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico, but it is still something to consider, especially if the timing of Idalia comes onshore right when the full moon is at the greatest, the supermoon coinciding on Wednesday. It is all a possibility. We just have to watch low tide versus high tide, Clearwater, four to seven feet. But that big bend, the catcher's mitt of Florida, literally all the water pushing up into that area, that is what we're concerned about as it gathers strength into the eastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico.

SIDNER: And that is why authorities are telling people to evacuate. If you get that call, do the right thing, take all of the things that you want to save, like pictures, and also your pets, don't forget your pets, they're family, too.

Derek Van Dam, thank you so much for giving us that really gorgeous look of the beach there.

We know your family is watching, so we want to tell them that you will be out of harm's way. We will not leave you out there as the storm starts hitting this area. We will be watching it together from a slightly safer space.

Appreciate you.

All right, I want to go now to the mayor of Clearwater, Brian Aungst.

And we appreciate you, Derek.

Brian Aungst is joining us now as we wait for this storm as it's coming closer. We expect to see it sometime this afternoon, at least some of the outer bands.

What are you telling people in the community that they need to be doing right now?

MAYOR BRIAN AUNGST (R), CLEARWATER, FLORIDA: Well, just like you said, and Derek said, take this seriously. If you're on level a evacuation, the beach or any low-lying areas, mobile home parks, please get out now. Don't wait until the last minute when traffic will be congested. Get out now. Take your pets. Take the things that you need. If you're here and you're not in a low-lying area, just hunker down. Make sure you have your hurricane kit, your water, your batteries, your radio, things that you need to just weather this storm.

The good news is, it's a fast-moving storm. It's not a very wide storm. But as Derek said, four to seven feet of surge along the beach and along the entire Pinellas County coastline, much of it will be underwater for half a day or a day. It should recede rather rapidly. But, still, it's going to be a dangerous storm and do not be -- don't try to be a hero and ride it out. If they tell you to get out of there, please get out of there and do it now.

SIDNER: Can you give us some sense, sir, there are always people who are hard-headed, who decide that they don't want to leave their homes, that they won't leave their homes. In happens in every single storm. And you can understand why, because sometimes, you know, you just say, listen, I'm just going to be here for the long haul. I'm going to take care of what I can.

What can you tell us about emergency management and what will be in place in case someone is unable to make it out as soon as now -- is able to leave now?

AUNGST: Well, we have teams standing by. We have people that need help. We have 11 buses taking them to approved shelters right now. And they can call the number in Pinellas County, which is 727-464-4333 if they need transportation. And, again, do it now. If you have medical needs or you need transportation or assistance, we have people standing by, as does the county, to help you get out of there.

Now, I can tell you a quick story. I had a friend that stayed on Sanibel last year. And he said it took him all he get up to his garage, through six feet of water, and he was barely - he was lucky to be alive. He sat there and watched his two cars wash away in five, six feet of water. He was lucky to get upstairs. He said, I will never, ever do that again. He's lucky he's alive.

SIDNER: We hear those stories so often. We also see the result of people staying and ending up perishing because they did not take the warnings seriously. And the thing that gets people, really, sir, is, Clearwater is gorgeous. You know that. We know that. You see it right now and you think, why would I leave this? It is absolutely beautiful right now. But if you have been through these hurricanes, you know how quickly that can change.

What should people be bringing with them? For example, you mentioned medical issues. So, prescriptions. What should people be preparing for right this second to bring with them as they leave to higher or safer ground?

AUNGST: Well, medical items that you say you need, prescription drugs. Anything that they need for their daily use and survival. Really, just the minimum of stuff that you need. And just - just get it in your car and get going, get on a bus, call the number if you need assistance and we'll take you somewhere.

And here's the other important thing, you don't have to evacuate hundreds of miles. We are talking tens of miles. Get to higher ground. Get to friend's house.

[08:40:00]

Get to a hotel. Get to a shelter. Get to higher ground. You don't have to drive out of the state. Just leave the immediate area of danger, which will be Clearwater Beach, it will be all of our beaches up and down Pinellas County.

SIDNER: Mayor, you told an really important story. We know that Fort Myers is still recovering and Sanibel Island as well from Hurricane Ian, which was devastating. This storm is going to be a category three. We all remember what happened in Louisiana back in 2005. That was a category three storm. So, people need to remember, it really is the water that is the danger here, that storm surge. So incredibly powerful. You cannot fight it.

Sir, thank you so much for taking just a few minutes with us. I know you are a busy person trying to make sure that your residents are safe at this moment in time.

I do want to quickly ask you one last question, and that is about schools. There are several school districts that have closed. Can you give us some sense of what's happening in Clearwater, so that people understand how long they may be closed and what they need to be thinking about as far as their children.

AUNGST: All schools are closed today and tomorrow. They hope to be able to reopen on Thursday. All city government and county governments are closed today and tomorrow. Other than, of course, the emergency operation centers. Everything is basically closed starting now, or at least by noon today.

SIDNER: Wonderful. Thank you so much, sir. I will let you get back to your busy day. Please stay safe.

AUNGST: Thank you.

SIDNER: And I hope that you and your family make it through this, and your property, make it through this without any kind of damage. Appreciate you.

AUNGST: Thank you.

SIDNER: All right, I'm going to toss it now back to Phil in the studio.

MATTINGLY: All right, thanks, Sara. Very important messages and context in that interview there. We're going to come back to you in a little bit.

But I do want to note some things that have changed just in the amount of time that we've been on air.

What we know going forward, what we know at this moment with Hurricane Idalia, Governor Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor, is scheduled to hold a press conference at 9:00 a.m. The top of the hour.

We also know Idalia has strengthened just in the time we've been on air. Shortly before we started the show, it was given the title of the category one hurricane. Expected to reach -- intensify to category three. Right now we know it has strengthened to 80 miles per hour winds according to hurricane hunters and at least 22 counties are under mandatory or voluntary evacuation orders.

So, we're going to have a lot more on that coming up. But we also know the House minority leader, Hakeem Jeffries, just told me, Republicans are taking orders from their, quote, puppet master in chief as GOP leaders consider a push to impeach President Biden. We'll discuss with our panel coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MATTINGLY: Well, welcome back.

President Trump's - former President Trump's 2024 calendar filling up with not only campaign stops and campaign events and primaries, also court dates.

Meanwhile, CNN has learned that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other top Republicans have privately started to strategize about how to move forward with an impeachment inquiry into Trump's chief political rival, the current president, President Biden.

[08:45:08]

Now, the top Democrat in the House, House minority leader, Hakeem Jeffries, says Democrats, they're not worried.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. HAKEEM JEFFRIES (D-NY): They have nothing to show for their majority throughout the year. And so as natural consequence of that, they just continue to take orders from Donald Trump, their puppet master in chief, who has directed them to persecute and to go after Joe Biden, which may take the form of an illegitimate impeachment inquiry.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Let's bring back in, and bring in some new folks. Joining us, criminal defense attorney Caroline Polisi, CNN's senior legal analyst Elie Honig and CNN political reporter Alayna Treene.

And, Alayna, I want to start with you because I think there is -- when you look at what's happening on Capitol Hill, when you look at the kind of balancing act that the House speaker, Kevin McCarthy, has. And you're very familiar with it. The fact they may go down this path, and our great colleague, Melanie Zanona, is reporting it seems kind of inevitable at this point. Politically, what does that mean for a very slim majority for House Republicans?

ALAYNA TREENE, CNN REPORTER: Well, it's tough. I think that right now McCarthy knows that he doesn't have the votes, the 218 votes needed to formally launch this. And Melanie pointed out in her story, and it's great reporting, that they may not need that. They may not need to vote on it in order to move forward with an impeachment inquiry. And I very much believe they will. I think that this is something that - I've been covering these House investigations very closely for months now. It's what the chairmen have been building toward. And I think everyone, particularly those on the more far-right section of the party and in the House have been expecting. And I think McCarthy knows that he needs to move forward with this.

And it's interesting, though, just speaking about, you know, Leader Jeffries' interview with you, I was catching up with him, Elie and I, in the green room before he went on and he was saying that, you know, even though there's a lot of moderate Republicans who say that they do not want this to move forward, that they do not think impeachment is warranted, a lot -- or go against what McCarthy and some of the more far-right members say, they always -- almost always end up voting with them.

MATTINGLY: Right.

TREENE: And with the lead -- and with Speaker McCarthy. And so I think that was interesting to hear him say, and it's something that he is going be watching for because really the moderates in this very slim majority are going to have a huge role in this if they end up moving forward with an impeachment inquiry.

MATTINGLY: And they are the majority makers.

TREENE: Exactly.

MATTINGLY: They are the front liners. A lot of them are in Hakeem Jeffries state, as we were talking about. So, that's the Capitol Hill aspect. To some degree that's the protection aspect that - what President Trump has been asking for - former President Trump has been asking House Republicans to do.

The actual cases themselves, go - it was striking the timing of things, trying to figure out when the federal case is actually going to start. We have a date now. You saw the arguments from the former president's legal team about time, the scale of what they have to get their arms around. Does the date make sense?

CAROLINE POLISI, CRIMINAL DEFENSE ATTORNEY: Well, you know, I - I'm a criminal defense attorney, so I do tend to align myself more with that side of things. That being said, you know, 2026 was a bit of a reach. That's what they were arguing for.

You know, as - again, as a defense attorney, you can't just really take the government's word for it. There are 12 million documents here to look through. The government noted, you know, there are duplicative documents in that dump, that he's, you know, has many of them in his possession already. However, you know, you can't just go on that. You are going to want to look through those documents to make sure there's nothing in there that's a surprise. There are sophisticated ways to sift through those documents, word search ability.

MATTINGLY: Sure.

POLISI: That being said, you know, March 4th, it's coming up. A lot of federal trials would give, you know, would give more time on that. So, I do think it's going to be an issue. Likely it's, you know, it's not going to be a winner on appeal, but it's -- it's definitely going to be, you know, up for the debate.

MATTINGLY: Yes.

ELIE HONIG, CNN SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST: I agree. Judges have very wide discretion when it comes to setting trial dates. And I agree, this will be an issue Donald Trump will appeal eventually. But it's cutting it really close here to make Donald Trump in a case with 12 million pages of documents go to trial in seven months. And some of the rationales that DOJ offered up that the judge agreed which I think don't cut it.

For example, one of the things DOJ argued, and the judge agreed with, is, well, he's sort of known that this was a possibility for a year or so.

MATTINGLY: Yes.

HONIG: Going back to the January 6th trials. That's not the way it works in our system. You are not on notice, as a criminal defendant, until an indictment drops. That's the purpose of an indictment. You can't just say, well, you kind of should have known there was something floating out there in the ether. That doesn't cut it.

I also agree with Caroline. You know, one of the big rationales has been, well, we, the prosecutors, we gave you this handy guide to most important documents. That's nice. That's a sweet courtesy. But, guess what, it's up to the defense lawyer to decide what matters to the defense. So, I think they're cutting it pretty close to the line here with respect to Donald Trump's constitutional right to fully prepare.

MATTINGLY: That - it's such an interesting point. There's so many different dynamics here, the Congress, the political, the legal. I'm glad you guys have -- are here to keep it all in line for me.

Appreciate it. Caroline, Alayna, Elie, thank you, guys.

[08:50:00]

Well, Hurricane Idalia is now a category one storm with maximum sustained winds around 80 miles per hour, but it's expected to strengthen even more and could become a dangerous category three hurricane as it approaches Florida's Gulf Coast. Landfall there, it's expected tomorrow morning.

Joining us now with this morning's number is CNN's senior data reporter Harry Enten.

Harry, what's the number?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR DATA REPORTER: All right, Phil, what's this morning's number? Well, the number for today is 40. Why is that? Because it's the 24-hour forecast track error for tropical cyclones In this decade (ph), 40 miles on average. And we have seen tremendous improvement in how accurate these forecasts have become within 24 hours. It was 102 miles for the 24-hour forecast track error back in the 1990s. So, we've slashed it by about a third. And, in fact, at this particular point, the average forecast track

error at 96 hours this decade, 129 hours, is actually slightly better than it was for 24 hours back in the 1970s. So, we have seen tremendous accuracy jumps in terms of predicting the track of hurricanes. And that's part of the reason why we were able to give out these warnings for Idalia so early on for this particular storm.

SIDNER: Harry, it is me out here in Clearwater. I am listening to your every word, even before I've had coffee. Thank you for always bringing the great numbers to us.

I do want to ask you about this. Have we humans, or scientists as I should say, gotten better at forecasting a storm's intensity as well?

ENTEN: Yes, so, you know, we talked about how much better we've gotten at the track, but how about the intensity? So, this is the average intensity forecast error at 24 hours. We really haven't seen that much improvement over the last few decades. Back in the 2000s it was 12 miles per hour. Last decade, 10 miles per hour. Now it's 9 miles per hour. So, we haven't really seen that jump, at least within the 24 hour timespan.

But where we have seen it is at the 72 hour time span. Look at this, back in the 2000s, it was 21 miles per hour. Sixteen miles per hour last decade. Now, look at this, we're at 12 miles per hour. So, one of the things that was so difficult to forecast, we are getting better at the further out we are. And that's part of the reason why we knew that Idalia would become a major storm much earlier than we might have in past decades. It's a remarkable achievement of science. And the fact that we were able to do so well with this storm, at least so far, is pointing to that remarkable achievement.

Sara.

MATTINGLY: Yes, that's totally fascinating.

Harry Enten, thank you very much.

SIDNER: Thank goodness for our scientists.

MATTINGLY: Sara, yes.

SIDNER: Yes.

MATTINGLY: Sara, I just want to say, like, it was remarkable you getting down there, especially not telling me you were going there. I was a little offended when I showed up and you weren't here and then quite impressed that you were down there.

SIDNER: It was a gift.

MATTINGLY: You've got a lot of work that you've been doing, that you're going to be doing going forward. We know you're going to keep us posted and you're going to be back here tomorrow from down there.

SIDNER: That is correct. And we are watching, of course, Hurricane Idalia. It is now a category 1, but it is going to intensify according to every single scientist who has been watching this storm as it goes over the Gulf.

We are now looking at pictures there from our drone showing you Clearwater, showing you how beautiful it is right now. But that water you're seeing in the ocean could be surging right over all of that beautiful sand.

We are keeping an eye on it. We will let you know the timing of all this.

Thank you so much for joining us. This has been CNN THIS MORNING. And you're looking at the storm track right now of the hurricane.

Back to you, Phil.

MATTINGLY: All right, Sara Sidner with us, will be back with us tomorrow from down there. Stay safe, Sara, and great work throughout the course of the morning.

We, of course, will be keeping a very close eye on that storm, on that hurricane as it moves towards the Gulf Coast on CNN throughout the course of the day.

But also this morning, before we wrap up CNN THIS MORNING, Billie Jean King was a trailblazing tennis star who fought for equal rights her entire career, especially equal pay. Well, last night, the U.S. Open honored the legend, her efforts and 50 years of equal prize money for women and men at the tournament.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BILLIE JEAN KING, 12-TIME GRAND SLAM SINGLES CHAMPION: Women's tennis is the leader in women's sports. While we - go for it. Yes!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:58:42]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Thank you.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Thank you, Billie Jean King.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Thank you, Billie. It's amazing what you've done for equal pay and also society (ph) really. And I'm really, really proud to call you a friend.

CROWD: Thank you, Billie Jean.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Well, some of the biggest names in tennis thanking the legendary Billie Jean King, not only for her profound impact on tennis, but also her fight for equal pay. Last night former First Lady Michelle Obama paid tribute to King at the U.S. Open.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MICHELLE OBAMA, FORMER FIRST LADY: Let us remember that all of this is far bigger than a champion's paycheck. This is about how women are seen and valued in this world.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Well, 50 years ago the U.S. Open became the first sporting event to offer equal prize money for women and men. It wasn't until 2007, just 16 years ago, that all the other grand slam events followed suit.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BILLIE JEAN KING, 12-TIME GRAND SLAM SINGLES CHAMPION: While we celebrate today, our work is far from done. I leave you with one of my all-time favorite quotes from Coretta Scott King. Struggle is a never- ending process. Freedom is never really won. You earn it and win it in every generation.

[09:00:00]

Enjoy the tournament, and let's keep going for it and mi casa es su casa.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: A trailblazer and also a hell of a tennis player. Billie Jean King here in New York last night.

Sara Sidner will continue our coverage of Hurricane Idalia.

In the next hour we're standing by for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to speak in just moments.

We'll be back covering all of this tomorrow morning as well.

Stay tuned to CNN.

"CNN NEWS CENTRAL" starts right now.