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Negotiations between Israel and Hamas May Lead to Temporary Ceasefire in Exchange for Release of Hostages; U.S. Officials Hope Three-Year-Old American Girl May be Among Those Released by Hamas If Ceasefire Arrangement and Hostage Swap is Agreed to; Presidential Debate Dates and Locations Announced; Hostage Deal Announcement Between Israel and Hamas could Come as Soon as Today; Fears Over Ukraine & Israel Funding Grow in Congress; GOP Pushes Immigration Laws, Threatens Ukraine Funding. Aired 8-8:30a ET

Aired November 21, 2023 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[08:00:52]

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is CNN breaking news.

POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: And we are following significant breaking news this morning. Sources tell CNN a hostage deal between Israel and Hamas could be announced as soon as today. Here are some of the details. We are told the potential deal calls for the release of 50 women and children abducted by Hamas during the October 7th terror attacks. In exchange, there would be a four to five day pause in fighting and three Palestinian prisoners would be swapped for each civilian hostage released, so that would be about 150 Palestinians being held. Sources say Israel and Hamas are still working on the names of those who would be released.

ERICA HILL, CNN ANCHOR: U.S. Officials are hoping that one of the first to be released would be three-year-old Abigail Edan here. She is the youngest American hostage. Her parents were killed by Hamas.

We spoke with Abigail's great aunt just a short time ago after this news broke. She is understandably cautiously optimistic. Here is more of what she told us.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LIZ HIRSH NAFTALI, GREAT AUNT OF THREE-YEAR-OLD HOSTAGE ABIGAIL EDAN: We can't get our hopes up in a way that just believes that it's going to happen right in the next couple of hours. But when I think about that on Friday is Abigail's fourth birthday, and that she should be home with her family and with her sister and brother, and she isn't right now, it's just -- it's like you get your emotions -- you have to keep them in check.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: M.J. Lee starts us at the White House with this breaking news. Tell us everything we need to know on this, this morning.

M.J. LEE, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, sources tell us this morning that a deal is on the cusp of being announced, that it could come as early as today. As you laid out, this would be Hamas initially releasing a group of 50 women and children hostages in exchange for four to five days of pause in fighting and also three Palestinian prisoners for every hostage that is released.

We are told that the hostages are of various nationalities, and as you just laid out, U.S. officials are hopeful one of those hostages will be three-year-old Abigail. She is the youngest American known hostage whose parents were killed by Hamas. It is unclear at this point whether any other Americans may be in that mix.

And importantly, during this pause we are told Hamas would agree to stop flying surveillance drones over northern Gaza for at least six hours a day, and also the idea is that Hamas would use this period of time, of the four to five days that there is a pause in fighting, to gather up additional hostages, women and children. And if that were to be successful, then the pause in fighting could be extended for an additional several days.

Now, Hamas, as we know, has also been demanding hundreds of trucks carrying aid, including fuel. This has been a very contentious point of the negotiations given what folks know. Fuel is used by Hamas so shore up its military operation, ventilating its underground tunnels. So we'll see where things end up when the deal is, hopefully, announced.

But we have seen over the last several days, particularly U.S. officials really intensifying their efforts to try to get this negotiation across the finish line. CIA Director Bill Burns has been very closely involved. We saw Brett McGurk, who is the White House Middle East coordinator, hopscotching the region. President Biden himself, of course, has made many phone calls to global leaders. So again where we stand right now is that parties involved have a lot of optimism right now that a deal is going to will be announced, and that it could come in a matter of days.

HARLOW: All right, M.J., stay with us. We also want to bring in political and foreign policy reporter at "Axios" Barak Ravid. Barak, you also have this reporting. So if you could also weigh in on what M.J. just said, but also what you report here is a potential second phase if this deal goes through and is successful.

BARAK RAVID, POLITICAL AND FOREIGN POLICY REPORTER, "AXIOS": Yes, good morning. First, just to add one interesting detail. A senior U.S. official just told me a minute ago that we are the closest we have ever been to a hostage deal in Gaza, much closer than we have been over the weekend.

[08:05:09]

And I think the White House expects some sort of an announcement in the next few hours. Yes, and this deal will be two phased, because phase one will be over something like four days of ceasefire, and every day of those four days we will see Israeli hostages being released by Hamas and Palestinian prisoners being released by Israel in the ratio of three to one. For every Israeli hostage, three Palestinian prisoners will be released. But then there will be phase two. And phase two is yet to be determined, meaning Israel said we are ready to extend the ceasefire four more days. Not only those four days, we can do another two days. But if Hamas wants another two days, it needs to release more hostages.

And even though Hamas says it will use four days of ceasefire to look for hostages, to locate them, to be prepared to release more, I think we should wait and see if Hamas can deliver on more hostages than those 50.

HILL: Start with one group first. You bring up an interesting point about whether Hamas can locate the hostages. That may come as a surprise to folks, that it is not clear where they all are, that they are not all together, that Hamas, we have learned last week, before there were other organizations who were involved, that they were not all held by Hamas. Just talk to us, too, Barak, about how delicate that is, that part of the operation, just figuring out where people are and then being able to get them to a place where they can, hopefully, be brought back.

RAVID: Yes. So we're talking about like 240 hostages, right? So the majority of them, something like 170, 180 are in the hands of Hamas. But another 40 or 50 in the hands of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad which is another Palestinian faction in Gaza. And there are another sort of unknown number, 10, 20, 30, depends who you ask, who are held in houses of this organization, this criminal organization called the Shabiha (ph) who most of its people sit in Rafah, the southern city in Gaza Strip. They are like mobsters, gangsters, and they are holding several dozen hostages.

So this is a complicated thing. But again, I think there is one thing that when Hamas says it needs to locate hostages, I think that's sort of a spin, because most of the people I spoke to say that Hamas knows exactly where most of them are, and it's just a matter of whether it is willing to release them or not.

HARLOW: And back to M.J. Lee at the White House. We just heard Barak's reporting that this could happen in the next couple of hours. That is something we had not heard before. Do you have any reporting to that record? And also, what would had mean in terms of how it would actually logistically happen?

LEE: Look, what we can say right now is that the parties involved are more optimistic than they ever have been and that a deal could be announced as early as to. I think it is really, really worth underscoring here, and I think we have been doing this the last several weeks, there have been other points when the deal has come close to being announced, but there not been serious breakthroughs. Deals have fallen through. And I think even this morning it is worth emphasizing that caveat, that at point a deal would break down, and that is because we really are dealing with Hamas, which U.S. officials that I have been speaking to for weeks have really been emphatic. This is not some regular negotiating partner or actor that you are talking about, as we reported in the last several days. Even recently, Hamas went through a period of simply just going dark in the negotiations. They stopped negotiating for a little bit because they had a number of concerns in the negotiations, including Israel's raid of Al-Shifa hospital.

This just goes to show you the immense challenges that all of the officials involved have had in trying to even communicate with Hamas. And it has really been touch and go. And I think that's why even right now, even as we're reporting that there is a lot of optimism, the caveat still stands that a deal isn't a deal until it is announced and until the hostages are physically out of Gaza.

HILL: Once you actually see them, that's when it will be done. Barak, a point that you had brought up yesterday, we were talking about this with M.J. earlier this morning, this six-hour pause for drone surveillance. It's still unclear if that would include U.S. drones as well. That was something that Hamas was really pushing for.

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RAVID: Yes. At the beginning they were pushing for a broader pause on aerial surveillance. They wanted for the entire time that the ceasefire is happening there will be no Israeli air surveillance. They got something like six hours. But I think it's a matter that we will have to see how this is implemented, because I find that I have to say, I find it hard to believe that Israel will stop flying drones above Gaza. Let's see that this is really implemented.

HARLOW: What about, finally, the reporting you have, Barak, on what Israel will allow in terms of aid trucks into Gaza from Egypt?

RAVID: Yes. So I think that this is something that Israel wanted to do anyway. So now we are looking at 300 trucks a day during the ceasefire, but also after the ceasefire, meaning it's not like after those four days they will go back to getting 100 trucks in. That's the number of trucks that will have to go into Gaza from now on. And it's something I think Israel wanted to do in the first place, but what it will have to do, I think, is to find a solution for the Rafah crossing, because the Rafah crossing from Egypt to Gaza cannot process at the moment 300 trucks, which means that Israel might have to open a crossing between Israel and Gaza. And if that's the case, it will be the first time that it's doing it since the war started.

HARLOW: Barak Ravid, thank you, M.J. Lee at the White House, really appreciate your reporting on this.

RAVID: Thank you.

HARLOW: So obviously, we're going to stay on top of this significant breaking news.

Also taking a look at your travel for the holiday. Millions of Americans potentially in some bad weather. What does it mean for your travel? That's ahead.

HILL: Plus, the presidential debate schedule has been set. Will they show up? An important question. David Chalian is here to take a look at those dates and who may or may not be there.

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POPPY HARLOW, CNN NEWS ANCHOR: All right, we have a date. The first presidential debate in the general election is September 16th, 2024. That is exactly 300 days away, but who's counting? The Commission on Presidential Debates announcing the dates and the locations for three Presidential Debates next year.

But you know it's not always set in stone. Will the likely nominees agree to show up in June? Donald Trump certainly made it seem like he will, if it's against

Biden.

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BRET BAIER, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: So, what does it mean if the front runners for the White House, you and President Biden, duck the debate stage?

DONALD TRUMP, FORMER PRESIDENT: No, we have to debate. He and I have to definitely debate, that's what I love.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: With us now on this and much more, CNN Political Director David Chalian. David, good morning to you. Talk about the location, and the dates, and by the way, don't they have to agree to this for it to happen?

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Yeah, we're a long way off from this actually being a debate, because you're right, there will be negotiations over the summer, if indeed, as is seems most likely right now, this will be a Trump-Biden rematch.

The debates will be if the candidates agree, but take a look at what the Commission on Presidential Debates, which has been hosting these debates since 1988, put forth here. You noted September 16, Texas State University, by the way.

That's as early as the debates start, as I can remember, and I'll explain why in a moment. Virginia State University, October 1, and at the University of Utah, October 9. Those are the three Presidential Debates, they also announced a vice presidential debate that will take place in Pennsylvania, guys.

But one of the big critiques that Republicans have had of the Commission on Presidential Debates in public letters from the RNC to the Commission is that the debates don't start early enough to catch people before early voting begins in earnest, and we know more and more Americans are voting that way. So, this calendar appears to accommodate that. And then I would also

note Virginia State University. This is the first time ever that an HBCU, historically black college and university would play host to a Presidential Debate.

ERICA HILL, CNN NEWS ANCHOR: Yes, key moments there. And again, let's hope we have them right. Let's hope we get there. We'll see, a lot could happen in the next 300 days.

As we know, there has been a lot of focus over the last 24 hours, I would say, on some new polling and specifically the reaction to how President Biden is handling the conflict in the war in Israel between Israel and Hamas.

Karine Jean-Pierre was asked about it yesterday. I just want to play her response.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KARINE JEAN-PIERRE, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: But what I'll be very clear about is we're not going to govern by polls here or poll numbers. We're going to focus on delivering for the American people. That's going to be our focus.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: Not going to govern by the polls, as we were talking know our friend John King, just a short time ago, he was saying, you know, it makes sense. It's a perfect boilerplate response and what you would expect the real question is, how is that figuring in?

What are those discussions when you look at these numbers, especially among young people?

CHALIAN: Yeah, Erica I would argue, Karine Jean Pierre is being backed up by the numbers. They're clearly not governing by poll numbers because the poll numbers are against where the president is at the moment as it relates to the Israel-Hamas War.

So overall, in this recent NBC News poll, a majority of Americans disapprove, 56 percent of the way Biden's handling the war, 34 percent approve. If you look among seniors 65 and older, you've got majority support for President Biden on his handling of the Israel-Hamas war, 41 percent disapproved.

So, seniors are a strong category for him as it relates to this issue. But you are right to note the young voters, a critical voting bloc, part of Joe Biden's successful 2020 coalition. 18 to 34-year-olds, 70 percent disapprove of the way he's handling the war.

HARLOW: The president pardoned some turkeys at the White House, and he really cares, and this administration really cares about how the economy looks to voters come Election Day. What are we looking at in terms of the economy inflation numbers around Thanksgiving?

CHALIAN: Yeah so, let's start here with the price of gas as people hit the road to head to their Thanksgiving holiday celebration. What you see here today, is 3.31 a gallon, that's an average. Gas prices, are the national average here. Last month, it was at 3.56. Last year at this time, it was 3.67.

So that's clearly moving in the right direction. And then take a look at all these green arrows.

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So, we just talked about gas down 5.3 percent from a year ago. Used cars and trucks, cars and truck rentals, airline fares, toys, and televisions. Everything here is going in the direction the Biden Administration would want to see, which is that prices have decreased from a year ago.

Even the all-important measure of your Thanksgiving meal is less expensive this year than it was last year. It's down 4.5 percent, it's much higher than what it was four years ago. But that all being the case, it's still not settling in with the public. Fifty-nine percent disapprove of Biden's handling of the economy.

Thirty-eight percent approve, that's why you're going to continue to hear the administration sell the success points in hopes of breaking through over the next year and having people feel a bit better about the economy than they seem to right now.

HARLOW: It's not like anyone's going to talk about this or politics at the Thanksgiving table, David. Thank you very much.

CHALIAN: Thanks, guys.

HARLOW: Good to have you friend.

HILL: Sources tell CNN a hostage deal between Israel and Hamas could be announced as soon as today. This as new questions loom about congressional support to the war in Israel and also the war in Ukraine. Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper is with us, ahead.

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HARLOW: And we are continuing to follow the breaking news this morning. Sources tell CNN a hostage deal between Israel and Hamas is potential, and it could be announced as soon as today. If it happens, it would call for the release of 50 women and children who are held hostage right now by Hamas in exchange for a four to five-day pause in fighting and also the exchange of three Palestinian prisoners for each civilian hostage released.

This breaking news comes as prospects for a combined Israel and Ukraine aid package from the US, are looking pretty grim in Congress right now. Sharp divides are emerging in both the House and the Senate over any additional cash infusion for Kyiv. Remember last week's agreement to keep the government open sidestepped

any additional funding for Israel or Ukraine. Lauren Fox is live on Capitol Hill with more. I mean, each day that goes by after they reached that deal last week seems like it's less and less likely, at least now.

LAUREN FOX, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, and you have the complication now, Poppy, of the fact that Republicans on Capitol Hill are insisting that any additional funding for Ukraine come with changes to border policy.

Now, if you remember, when the administration sent up its supplemental request, a total of $105 Million Dollars, it had planned to invest more money on the southern border. But Republicans are arguing that more money isn't enough. They want to make sure that there are robust policy changes.

And our colleague Mani Raju and I have been talking with members of that immigration working group to find out whether or not they were making much progress. And while negotiators insist that they are having productive conversations, the reality is the two sides are still really far apart.

And that is leading some Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill to wonder if there's going to be a deal at all. Here's one, Senator John Kennedy.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KENNEDY, (R) LOUISIANA: But it may be that the border issue holds up everything else the aid to Ukraine, the aid to Taiwan, the aid to Israel. It may be that those all go down because of the border issue.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FOX: Another complication here is even if Senate negotiators, Republicans and Democrats can come to some kind of consensus on the immigration question and what kind of policy changes they'd be willing to take at the border, it becomes a question of whether or not Conservatives in the House would be willing to accept that deal.

You already have some Republicans, like Chip Roy, warning that if Speaker Mike Johnson puts something on the floor of the House of Representatives that does not come close to the deal he wanted to see on immigration, that would be a major strike against the speaker.

So, a lot of moving parts here, and obviously that immigration and border question complicates the prospects for getting aid to Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan, Poppy.

HARLOW: Lauren Fox great reporting, thank you.

HILL: Joining us now, former Defense Secretary under President Trump. Mark Esper, good to have you back with us this morning. Picking up on Lauren's reporting there as we leave off. We had Secretary Austin in Kyiv yesterday, of course, saying the U.S. will stand with Ukraine, but stopping short notably of talking about the money or promising any future influx, right, because of these budget issues.

What is your sense of where this stands this morning and what could ultimately happen?

MARK ESPER, FORMER TRUMP DEFENSE SECRETARY: Yeah, good morning. Look, this is really troubling. It undermines our foreign policy, it undermines the United States military because of course, the Pentagon has been on a continuing resolution now for several months. And every month goes by, billions of dollars of lost spending ability are gone.

And then, of course, it really impacts Ukraine, Israel, our friends in Taiwan, and the security. None of the underlying dynamics have been resolved in the House GOP with regard to the latest avoidance of a government shutdown.

And we're going to face all these problems again in January and February, and on top of that, what many people have maybe forgotten is that the budget deal agreed to this past spring said that once January 1st passes; January 1, 2024, there are automatic cuts that will go into place across the budget to include defense and return us to a lower level of spending, tens of billions of dollars lost.

So, this is in really bad shape. When you look at what it means to us strategically with regard to Russia and China, it just does not bode well for our positioning.

HARLOW: And Mr. Secretary. What about Iran? I mean, look at all of the proxy attacks that we've seen from Iran-backed groups against U.S. Forces in the region since October 7. What message does that send to Iran if we don't see an increase in aid for Israel?

ESPER: Right, look, we've had over 60 attacks in the last few weeks, over 150 over the last three years under the Biden administration. And in the last few weeks alone, Americans over 60 have been injured, by shrapnel wounds.

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