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CNN This Morning

Today: Trump, Haley, DeSantis All Campaigning in Iowa; Defense Secretary in Qatar to Talk Gaza War's Next Phase; Volcano Erupts in Iceland; Biden Campaign Focusing on Reproductive Rights. Aired 6-6:30a ET

Aired December 19, 2023 - 06:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

CAROLYN MANNO, CNN SPORTS: The real star of the show here, John, was this adorable pup, sitting courtside. This is a service dog named Brody. He's a big-time star, wearing an Oscar Tshiebwe (ph) jersey to boot. Spent some time as a lap dog here at the game, dancing around. The crowd was loving it.

[06:00:16]

I'm curious what you think about a four-legged fan being courtside here?

JOHN AVLON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST/ANCHOR: I love it. I love it.

MANNO: OK, good.

AVLON: I don't know if my daughter, Toula, would appreciate the dog more or the Knicks win more. I think maybe the dog.

MANNO: Yes. You know, he's got his own line of grooming products. He's a social media star. Why not get courtside seats?

AVLON: Love it.

MANNO: I feel like it fits.

AVLON: All right. Thanks, Carolyn. Be well.

And thanks for joining us. I'm John Avlon. CNN THIS MORNING starts right now.

POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: Well, good morning, everyone. I'm Poppy Harlow with Phil Mattingly in New York. We're glad you're with us on this Tuesday, December 19. A lot to get to. Specifically politics.

The pre-Christmas campaign push lands in Iowa today. Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley all holding events there, sharpening their closing messages and attacks against one another this morning. A new signal the Trump campaign is concerned about one candidate's growing momentum.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN ANCHOR: Also this morning, the stage is set for a showdown between the Biden administration and Texas Governor Greg Abbott over the border. Abbott signing a controversial bill making illegal immigration a state crime that will allow Texas police to make mass arrests.

The protests and threats of legal challenges already under way.

And bursts of lava and smoke filling the sky in Iceland today as a volcano dramatically erupted overnight after weeks of warnings. The eruption threatening a nearby town and a geothermal power plant.

CNN THIS MORNING starts right now.

HARLOW: New this morning, it looks like Donald Trump may be feeling some pressure in New Hampshire as Nikki Haley chips away at what was a huge lead there. Today, for the first time, Trump's super PAC is rolling out an attack ad against her in the Granite State.

MATTINGLY: And this is Haley's response, tweeting two days ago, "Donald Trump denied our surge in New Hampshire existed. Now he's running a negative ad against me. Someone's getting nervous. #bringit."

Now, this all comes after a new poll this week showed Haley gaining on Trump and closing the gap to just 15 points in the state.

HARLOW: And a big focus today is in Iowa where Trump, Haley and other top rivals like DeSantis are all campaigning in the state with less than four weeks left until the Iowa caucuses, the very first contest in the battle to become the Republican presidential nominee.

So let's begin with Steve Contorno. He is tracking all of it for us. Good morning.

Haley, DeSantis have been busy holding campaign events in Iowa. Interestingly, attacking one another, not just attacking the front- runner.

STEVE CONTORNO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Poppy. DeSantis and Haley have been in Iowa since the weekend. They will be in Iowa after Trump holds his rally tonight.

And though the former president may be leading in the Hawkeye State, he is not necessarily the focus of his top two rivals.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CONTORNO (voice-over): Former President Donald Trump returning to Iowa tonight with just weeks until the January 15th caucuses.

DONALD TRUMP, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Hello, Iowa.

CONTORNO (voice-over): His rivals storming the state, as well, trying to cut into Trump's commanding lead there, but mostly attacking each other.

GOV. RON DESANTIS (R-FL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: So Nikki, I think there's a real risk that she would send American troops to Ukraine to fight. NIKKI HALEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Today he said that I want our

troops to be in Ukraine. I've never even said anything like that. Nowhere near it.

CONTORNO (voice-over): Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the middle of a six-day swing through Iowa, fighting from behind, as a CBS News poll shows him trailing Trump by 36 points in the Hawkeye State.

Former South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador, Nikki Haley, is further behind DeSantis, though faring much better in New Hampshire.

HALEY: I've done well over 120 something, 140 town halls. And I never talk about my opponents. But today I am.

CONTORNO (voice-over): Haley on Monday taking on her top rival to challenge Trump.

HALEY: If you punch me, I punch back.

Ron DeSantis has lied in every one of his commercials.

CONTORNO (voice-over): Super PACs supporting Haley and DeSantis have spent millions on television ads, trying to tear down the other and emerge as the leading Trump alternative.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Don't believe a thing Nikki Haley says. She doesn't.

CONTORNO (voice-over): But very little targeting the front-runner.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: What a phony. Ron DeSantis. Too lame to lead, too weak to win.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You can't trust tricky Nikki.

CONTORNO (voice-over): Trump is receiving some criticism from one of his rivals over his anti-immigrant rhetoric this weekend, when he said immigrants are, quote, "poisoning the blood of our country."

DeSantis on Monday not directly rebuking Trump, telling Iowans that his remark simply distracted from the problems at the U.S./Mexico border.

[06:05:02]

DESANTIS: To give them an ability, the opposition an ability to try to make it about something else with some of those comments, I just think is a tactical mistake.

CONTORNO (voice-over): While Haley latched onto Trump's favorable quoting of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

HALEY: The part that bothers me is our national security is at risk. And what's he doing? He's praising dictators.

(END VIDEOTAPE) CONTORNO (on camera): Here's a stat that will give you a sense of just how little DeSantis and Haley are going after Trump on the airways.

So far, former Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, he has outspent Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis in advertising, attacking Trump. And he's not necessarily the best-funded candidate.

And this was one of the concerns coming into this cycle of those who wanted to see the party move on from Trump; that his rivals would get caught up in this fight with each other and not be as focused on taking down Donald Trump himself.

Now DeSantis and Haley have made strong claims to be that Trump alternative, but Haley -- Poppy and Phil, they are running out of time.

HARLOW: Yes. How many days, Mattingly?

MATTINGLY: Less than four weeks.

HARLOW: OK. Usually --

MATTINGLY: Keep it broad.

HARLOW: -- he has the precise day for me. Steve, thank you very much.

MATTINGLY: It's close to Christmas, coming up. It's a little slower this week.

Let's bring in a couple of people -- three people who are not slow at all: CNN senior political analyst and anchor, John Avlon; CNN political analyst and historian, Leah Wright Rigueur; and CNN political commentator Errol Louis.

I'm interested in the decision by the Trump super PAC to attack Nikki Haley. We were talking about it all day yesterday. I think the CBS poll was ricocheting around Republican circles who want the alternative to Donald Trump.

I take the idea of what Trump's team is doing is smart in trying to eliminate a threat before it has a chance to rise. Doesn't mean they're scared. Do you think they're scared?

ERROL LOUIS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, look, I mean, they ought to be scared if they're not.

MATTINGLY: Really?

LOUIS: Yes. Well, look, to see someone with the kind of momentum that she's showing, with the strength that she's showing in groups that this campaign needs to sort of do better with, meaning you know, women, college-educated and so forth and so on, and then you see something like the CBS poll that says that, you know, she's more likable than Trump, that she's as prepared as Trump, that you know, people in -- these are New Hampshire numbers, that people in these early states are really gravitating to her, you don't wait for the problem to emerge. You have to sort of kind of go after it. And I think that's exactly what you're seeing.

It's also kind of a message -- I read that as they don't think DeSantis is all that important. I mean, you know, they ran millions of dollars' worth of attack ads to try and deal with him. And apparently, it worked. At least to their satisfaction. And so they're just kind of moving on to the next target.

HARLOW: One area where Trump and Nikki Haley really are not on the same page is foreign policy, particularly about the two ongoing wars right now, Israel and also more funding for Ukraine.

Listen to what Nikki Haley said. This was interesting, going after Trump specifically on foreign policy. Here she was.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HALEY: The part that bothers me is our national security is at risk. And what's he doing? He's praising dictators. When Israel fell to their knees, what did he do? He talked about an old vendetta with Netanyahu and praised Hezbollah.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: To be specific what he said about Hezbollah is, quote, "They're vicious, and they're smart."

So is this a winning issue for her, to try to take away Trump supporters? Or is that not their main focus or why they would go to her?

LEAH WRIGHT RIGUEUR, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST AND HISTORIAN: The thing is she has to do something. And this is actually one of the areas where there are significant differences amongst the Republican candidates and amongst the Republican candidates and Trump.

And so for, I think, somebody like Nikki Haley, particularly someone who served in Trump's cabinet as U.N. ambassador, this is an opportunity for her to showcase her prowess around U.S. foreign policy; to say this is what I do, this is what I am skilled at doing. I've been attacked on this multiple times, but actually, I have the chops to tease out this -- these ideas.

We do know that Americans have rising fears about the threat to -- about global threats to democracy, about domestic threats to democracy. So this is one entry point for her to come in.

The thing, however, I think, that's important to recognize is that Trump is tapping into something that the American public has also expressed that they really like, which is the idea of a strongman figure. And the idea that wars are costly and that Americans shouldn't have to pay for wars any more.

So, again, important for us to tease out the differences, especially for Republican voters. But perhaps not the most winningest issue on the table right now. MATTINGLY: Can I pull on that thread a little bit? Because I think

it's important when you look at poll after poll, particularly general election matchup between Trump and Biden. The strong man who has more strength, who has more power, Trump always leads in those polls. I think it's subjective and kind of hard to define.

[06:10:00]

But this also extends to immigration right now. And I think when you see there's less divergence inside the Republican field about the issue of immigration --

AVLON: Sure.

MATTINGLY: -- I think the biggest story in the country this week is what's happening down in Texas. Greg Abbott signing the law that will allow local law enforcement, state law enforcement to arrest, judges to deport. It's inevitably going to end up, I assume, at the Supreme Court right now.

HARLOW: That might be the point.

MATTINGLY: Yes. And I think to some degree, that is the point, if you look back to Arizona back in 2012. What do you take away for how that's going to affect politics in the months ahead?

AVLON: Well, the macro point you're raising reminds me of one of my favorite aphorisms about American politics from Bill Clinton, who said, "People will vote for strong and wrong every time." Strength matters. And that's something Democrats, I think, don't adequately appreciate.

Now, on the issue of the border, clearly, this is an issue that unites Republicans. But frankly, also has a lot of appeal among independent voters and even some Democrats.

I think there's political upside for Joe Biden to cut a deal on border security. And frankly, I think some Republicans are going to want to pump the brakes, because they're afraid he and the Democrats might benefit if they deal with this issue.

But let's deal with Abbott, because I agree with you: it's a very big deal. It is setting up a fundamental conflict that's going to go through the courts.

Why? Because the border is traditionally something done by the federal government not the states. But, as Eric Adams and other folks will tell you now, if the federal government is not doing its job on the border, someone else has to deal with it.

So this is really sort of a form of stunt politics. And it's got some downstream effects that could be quite troubling. But it indicates how quickly this issue is moving in people's minds. It will be a political winner in the short run.

HARLOW: You just said if the federal government is failing, essentially.

AVLON: Uh-huh.

HARLOW: That harkens back to Scalia's dissent. We were talking about this this morning, in the case Phil brings up, in the Arizona case from 2012. Here's what Justice Scalia wrote, not in the majority then. Is this the view of the majority now? Maybe.

Quote, "Must Arizona's ability to protect its borders yield to the reality that Congress has provided inadequate funding for federal enforcement or, even worse, the executives' unwise targeting of that funding?"

LOUIS: And the answer to that troubling question is yes. Yes, you must yield. I would -- you know, you mentioned the short term. Let's talk about the medium to long-term and Prop 187 back in California.

This was in the 1990s. And it basically put an end to Republican politics in that state. I mean, they -- they tried to exclude all services, including schooling, from people who were undocumented. And the backlash, you can feel to this day.

You can't get to first base as a Republican statewide in California anymore. They blew off all of their Latino voters. They cost the party the state. And going forward, they'll -- they'll have a hard time getting a toehold again.

And I see Texas going down that same road. I think there's -- it's going to blow up in their faces. As a practical matter, they may not win in the courts, but certainly, by galvanizing their base, it might help them in 2024.

But 2025 and beyond, don't try and talk to anybody about immigration in that state.

AVLON: Yes. I appreciate the Pete Wilson shout-out. I mean, you're right. That did have dramatic impact.

But we're in a very different era. And I'll just say, you know, I interviewed Ruy Teixeira, who has a book about sort of what's happened to the Democrats with the Latino working-class support moving towards Republicans.

And this issue, I don't -- I think has become more complicated. You're right. The downstream effects will be difficult politically.

But -- but I think the idea that it will just necessarily alienate Latino voters, particularly folks who live in Laredo County in Texas and these border communities, I don't think can be taken for granted anymore.

LOUIS: Look, if it was simply the policy, that would be one thing.

AVLON: Yes.

LOUIS: But you start to listen to how the policy gets talked about and what gets said at the rallies.

AVLON: Yes.

LOUIS: And the slurs and the ugliness and the poisoning of the blood and what Trump has to say about it.

AVLON: Sure.

LOUIS: And by the time it's all done, I think people will be very, very clear on what this policy is actually.

MATTINGLY: We have a lot more to talk about this, and we're going to. We also have Will Hurd, the former congressman from one of those border districts in Texas, up later in the show. Poppy's going to talk to the former congressman.

John, Leah, Errol, stick around, guys.

HARLOW: Right now, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin pushing for a solution to the crisis in the Middle East. His new warning over the Israel-Hamas war and the attacks on those ships in the Red Sea.

MATTINGLY: And a volcano erupts and shoots lava for miles in Iceland. We've got new video. Look. I mean, it's wild --

HARLOW: Wow.

MATTINGLY: -- to look at right now, as concerns grow about toxic gas in the air. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:18:14]

MATTINGLY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin headed to Qatar this morning, holding talks about the next phase of Israel's war with Hamas and efforts to secure the release of more hostages.

As he's doing this, Hamas has released a new video -- they did so on Monday -- of these three elderly, Israeli male hostages, Chaim Peri, Yoram Metzger, and Amiram Cooper. The IDF says there are 120 people still believed to be held in captivity in Gaza.

HARLOW: Earlier today, Austin warned Houthis to stop the, quote, "reckless attacks" on commercial vessels in Red Sea, in the Gulf of Aden, calling them, quote, "a serious international problem." And this all comes after weeks of attacks from Iran-backed rebels.

Let's go to Will Ripley. He joins us live in Tel Aviv this morning. A really significant visit for Lloyd Austin, the second time he's come to Israel since the terror attacks on it. What should we expect from his meetings in Qatar today?

WILL RIPLEY, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, certainly, the goal in Qatar is to continue this role that they've had in recent weeks and months, which is to somehow try to mediate a potential ceasefire to facilitate the return of more Israeli hostages.

Ever since those three men who were Israeli but apparently unknown to the IDF, who shot and killed them even though they were waving a white cloth and had written a sign with leftover food saying, "Help. We are hostages" in Hebrew, the IDF killing them. It's really put a lot of focus on this rising, rapidly rising, civilian death toll in Gaza, which is getting closer and closer to that dreaded 20,000 mark. Twenty thousand people in Gaza killed since October the 7th. Less than three months.

And so, the United States, certainly behind closed doors, according to CNN sources, is pressuring Israel to start to look at the next phase of this operation: getting rid of Hamas leadership. Because the U.S. and Israel still do very much agree that this all began because of the horrific attack on October 7th by Hamas, targeting unarmed Israeli civilians, many of them at that music festival, the Nova Music Festival near Gaza and other areas across Israel, along with the kidnappings.

[00:20:13]

And so removing Hamas and then looking into the future of Gaza, Palestinian-controlled but with a different leadership in place, that is the goal of the United States.

Israel has stated publicly that, in principle, they share that goal, but obviously, it's incredibly complicated, incredibly tricky, especially when you're dealing with all these different regional actors.

You have Iran, which is believed to be not only encouraging elements of Hamas but also Hezbollah in Lebanon. You know, you have -- so you have tensions rising because of that.

You have the incidents on the Red Sea, cargo ships now being forced to reroute because of these attacks. And so it's a very volatile situation.

And the U.S. Is here to try to do their part to find some sort of peaceful resolution, although it doesn't seem to be any time soon, guys.

HARLOW: Will Ripley for us, live in Tel Aviv. Will, thanks very much -- Phil.

MATTINGLY: Right now, a volcano is erupting in Iceland. You can look. These are live pictures behind me right here, shooting bubbling lava and molten rock high into the sky, flowing all around.

These are some of the new pictures we're getting this morning which look like a river of fire.

CNN's Melissa Bell is live for us in Paris monitoring the conditions right now.

Melissa, weeks of warnings that this was possible, almost likely. Now we're seeing it. What are the biggest concerns now that this has actually happened?

MELISSA BELL, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, the fear really is to human life, but of course, to infrastructure and towns.

That huge fissure that you can see part of when you look at those live pictures of that volcanic activity, which has grown over the course of the night. This began at 10 p.m. local last night, more than 12 hours ago. That fissure has grown; is now 4 kilometers long.

It is only about 3 kilometers from town, which is a fishing town that's now been evacuated, 4,000 people. And the fears really had been for that town, which has been seen people being evacuated for the night for more than a month now.

Because as you say, there's been this seismic activity, thousands of earthquakes over the last month in that area, signaling that some sort of volcanic eruption was on the cards.

This is the fourth in that area since 2021, but by far the largest. And I think no one had expected it, Phil, to be as big as it is. The pictures really very impressive.

There is also, near that small fishing village of Grindavik that I mentioned, also a thermal power plant that powers and provides heat and hot water to some 30,000 people in the peninsula. There had been fears for that.

So, what we're looking at are those lava flows to see which direction they take. What we've been hearing, the very latest is that they appear to be moving North and East and, therefore, not necessarily towards the town.

Still, authorities say it is the toxic fumes that are being released from the volcano that now pose the most serious threat, really urging residents not to try and get anywhere near that volcano as they might go and try and have a look or get closer to it to try and get pictures. It is still extremely dangerous, and its lava flow is extremely unpredictable.

We expect an update soon from authorities who have been meeting with civil defense forces, trying to figure out how they can continue protecting both the town and the thermal power plant.

But good news for travelers, it doesn't appear for the time being, at least, Phil, that we're going to see any repeat of what we saw in 2010 when we saw that huge Icelandic volcano that caused some of the biggest travel disruptions to European air space since World War II. For now, airplanes going in and out of Reykjavik.

Still incredibly pictures coming out of Iceland this morning, Phil.

MATTINGLY: Yes. Melissa, critical warnings, but those pictures are just absolutely stunning to look at. Melissa Bell, please keep us posted. Thank you.

HARLOW: New insight this morning into the Biden campaign's re-election strategy. Their plans to make abortion rights a central issue in key battleground states.

MATTINGLY: and right now in China, the race to save survivors of a powerful earthquake. The magnitude 5.9 quake killed at least 118 people. Rescuers are working in sub-zero temperatures to save anyone trapped in the rubble.

The quake hit a remote region West of Beijing. It is China's deadliest quake in nearly a decade. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:28:01]

HARLOW: New this morning, the Biden campaign says it will make abortion the, quote, "center pillar" of its re-election campaign. And Vice President Kamala Harris will take center stage in that, launching what is called a Reproduction Freedoms Tour. Hosting events that the campaign says will highlight the harm caused by state abortion bans. That's their argument.

And the first stop is Wisconsin on the 51st anniversary of the Roe versus Wade decision, which of course, has now been overturned.

MATTINGLY: And Wisconsin a pretty important state.

The economy, however, remains one of the core, if not the core issue for voters. Bank of America's chief U.S. economist told his clients yesterday he believes Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could stick the so-called soft landing, slowing the economy without leading to mass layoffs and recession. Certainly looks that way right now.

Our panel is back with us: John Avlon, Leah Wright Rigueur, and Errol Louis.

John, I want to start with what the vice president is going to be doing. Because I actually think when you talk to people inside the White House, you feel like her team has stabilized. She's kind of found her lane, to some degree.

This is where she's most effective, unequivocally; on this issue in these types of tours. And this issue is, to the extent the Biden campaign is maybe not Zen or sanguine, but they feel like they have issues on their side, this is No. 1 for them.

AVLON: Sure. And recent, you know, politics post-Dobbs decision bear that out. You know, Democrats have been outperforming in every election -- special, you know, in the '23 elections -- in large part because of this issue. You know, when restrictive amendments have been put forward, even in red states, they lose.

So the framing of this as a freedom issue seems to be working for Democrats. And it is very much in sort of Kamala Harris's wheelhouse as VP.

That said, I think there's a danger of putting too much of an emphasis on this issue alone. It is a strong suit. No question. It has accounted for Democrats outperforming significantly in the last 18 months, but I don't know that the election will come down solely to abortion.

HARLOW: But don't you play, Leah, your strongest winning card? And isn't this what they've got right now?

RIGUEUR: It's absolutely the strongest card that they have. And they absolutely should play it.

However, the real question of the 2024 election is going to be the economy.

[06:30:00]