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President Biden to Give Campaign Speech on Anniversary of January 6th Capitol Riots; Former President Trump to Attempt Balancing Campaigning with Appearing in Court for Various Trials; Likely Political Effects of Democratic Party's Association of Donald Trump with January 6th Capitol Riots Examined; CNN's Inaugural Road to 270 Shows Trump in a Position to Win; Former Governor Larry Hogan on No Labels Third-Party Bid. Aired 8-8:30a ET

Aired January 05, 2024 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:00:00]

AUDIE CORNISH, CNN ANCHOR AND CORRESPONDENT: This just in to CNN. Former Capitol Hill police officer Harry Dunn who was on duty during the January 6th attack and later testified before the House January 6th Committee, is running for Congress. Dunn says former President Trump's role in the Capitol attack partly inspired him to run. He told CNN, quote, "I want to do everything in my power that I can do to fight back against him. As a congressman, that gifts me a seat at the table now to hold him accountable." Dunn will join a crowded field of Democrats vying for an open seat in Maryland's third congressional district.

CNN THIS MORNING continues right now.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Today President Biden opens his 2024 campaign here with a speech from historic Valley Forge. His messages to voters about protecting democracy ahead of the third anniversary of the Capitol attack.

CORNISH: With Trump and Biden firmly leading their parties, CNN is taking a fresh look at a potential presidential rematch in November. What the road to 270 electoral votes can tell us now ahead of the big vote this fall.

MATTINGLY: And the final jobs report of 2023 will be released later this hour. We're going to break down what the numbers suggest about the state of the economy as we kick of 2024. This hour of CNN THIS MORNING starts right now.

And good Friday morning, everyone. It's the top of the hour. I'm Phil Mattingly.

CORNISH: And I'd Audie Cornish in New York. Poppy is off. Right now Donald Trump is getting ready to blitz Iowa with two campaign rallies today as he tries to dominate the caucuses just 10 days from now.

MATTINGLY: His top rivals Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley racing to close the huge polling gap they face. They sharpen their attacks on the former president during dueling CNN town halls in Des Moines last night. Haley and DeSantis making the case to Iowa voters that Republicans could lose in November if Trump is the nominee.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NIKKI HALEY, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Americans don't want another nailbiter of an election, and that's what we'll get. Look at any of the polls. Head-to-head against Joe Biden, Trump head-to-head with Biden. On a good day, he might be up by two. I defeat Biden by 17 points, 17 points.

GOV. RON DESANTIS, (R) FLORIDA: The Democrats want Trump to be the candidate. They are going to talk about all the legal stuff, January 6th. That will be what the election will be about.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: Today we are also about to get our first split-screen 2024 preview of a potential Biden-Trump rematch. Biden is set to give a speech marking three years since the January 6th attack and warn Americans that Trump an existential threat to our democracy.

MATTINGLY: We start this morning with Kristen Holmes live in Sioux Center, Iowa. Kristen, what do we expect from Trump this weekend now back on to the campaign trail balancing the election, 10 days away the caucuses, and the ongoing legal issues?

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Phil and Audie. Well, let's start with what we expect to see this weekend, because he has lot of events. He has two today and two tomorrow. When you talk about closing message, he is actually making the point that Bob Vanderplaats just made. He is not rally talking about his other GOP rivals. Of course, he is going to throw in those insults, but he wants to ask Iowans and he's stressing to Iowans, are you happier now particularly when it comes to the economy than you were four years ago, or were you better off four years ago? And if the answer is you were better off four years ago, ignore all of this noise, put me back in. I will do it for you again, and I will do it for you again.

Again, we are going to hear those sideswipes at those other candidates, but that is the message that he really wants to hammer home. As for whether or not he can balance all of the legal and all of the political, look just what we have seen in the month of January. And by the way, this is only going to get more full. The second they filed their appeal in the Maine 14th Amendment case, the 3rd of January they filed their appeal in the Colorado 14th Amendment case, 5th through 6th he is in Iowa campaigning. The 9th, Trump's legal team is going to make their arguments in the immunity claim in D.C. I reported earlier this week that Trump's team is making plans for him to actually attend that.

And the 11th, final arguments in the New York civil fraud case. We do not know yet if Trump is going to attend that, but we know he has gone multiple times, and that is a case that is very close to him.

After that, 12th through the Iowa caucuses, he's back in Iowa campaigning. This is a very hard schedule to juggle, and one thing to keep in mind here, none of the court appearances that he's made up to now, except for maybe one, I believe, was testimony in New York were mandatory. These are choices he is making. So we haven't even gotten to the point where he is required to sit through some of those trials.

CORNISH: It's a good thing to underscore there, Kristen Holmes. Thank you.

MATTINGLY: Also today, President Biden will mark the third anniversary of the deadly January 6th Capitol riot with a speech at historic Valley Forge in Pennsylvania. Biden is expected to underscore the threats to democracy he sees posed by Donald Trump, which promises to be a central argument of Biden' 2024 reelection bid. As part of that larger strategy, his campaign has released a new ad sharpening that message ahead of the GOP caucuses and primaries.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

[08:05:00]

JOE BIDEN, (D) PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: There is something dangerous happening to America. There is an extremist movement that does not share the basic beliefs in our democracy.

All of us are being asked right now, what will we do to maintain our democracy? History's watching. The world is watching. Most important, our children and grandchildren will hold us responsible.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: It is a big day that feels a little bit like a general Election Day to some degree. Joining us now, Scott Jennings, CNN political commentator and former special assistant to President George W. Bush, and David Axelrod, CNN senior political commentator and former senior advisor to President Obama.

David, I want to start with you, because this is a big moment for Biden. Yes, it's the first rally of 2024. Yes, it's a half-million- dollar ad buy. But they are very clear about the importance of this message to their campaign and how they want to pursue it over the next 11 months.

DAVID AXELROD, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: This has been a touchstone, of course, of Biden from his emergence in 2020 through the midterms of 2022 to this moment. And I think that it comes at an important time for him because there are a lot of elements of the Democratic base that want him to take a more active stance. They want to see a contrast with Donald Trump. But there is also division in the Democratic base, and these issues are issues that unite the Democratic base and energize the Democratic base. I don't think this message alone is sufficient, but for this moment I think they think it's galvanizing.

CORNISH: You mentioned divisions. And Scott, I want to ask you about one, because a recent "Washington Post" poll shows that 77 percent of Democrats compared to just 18 percent of Republicans think the protests on that day were mostly violent. And, obviously, there's a lot of videos. Obviously, there has been a lot of testimony and people have been charged with assault. Many of them have become martyrs to some extent to certain people in the party. Why do you think that is?

SCOTT JENNINGS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, Republicans have come to believe a narrative about that day that just isn't the same as what independent voters believe and what Democrats believe, despite all the video evidence to the contrary. And that's why Biden is going back to it. And they have been told this, of course, by Donald Trump, and they have also been living with this feeling that every time Donald Trump is accused of something, they come around to believing it's going to be debunked or has been debunked.

CORNISH: Even --

JENNINGS: And so has been added to that list. And that's also why he has been insulated, I think, to some degree, from all of the criminal charges that he is facing in the different trials. There is a belief among his biggest supporters, and a lot of Republicans, that ultimately, ultimately Trump is vindicated because we find out it was a hoax to begin with. That same rubric is being applied here to January 6th.

CORNISH: And again, there is no evidence whatsoever of that.

JENNINGS: And so that -- but that's why you are asking me why do you see this chasm in public opinion polling. That's why.

AXELROD: Kristen Holmes made an interesting point, which is Trump is going to court not because he is compelled to, but because he wants to. He is going there the day before the Iowa caucuses. He is going to sit there and listen to arguments about whether or not he had immunity or not for his actions. And to some degree, in the 19th century we had these front porch campaigns. This is going to be a courthouse step campaign because it does energizes his base to this notion that he is being persecuted for his political stances. And I know you believe that this is one of the motivations for Biden --

JENNINGS: Yes.

AXELROD: -- surfacing this issue today.

JENNINGS: I think he is hitting this -- obviously, it's the anniversary. But it comes at the moment where Democrats want, I think, to help ensure that Donald Trump is the nominee of the Republican Party. I mean, this is the same strategy they used in the 22 midterm. They spent money and worked hard against more moderate Republican candidates in primaries to ensure they got candidates, the opponents they wanted. I think Biden wants and needs to run against Donald Trump. And so what they are doing today is going to make clear he expects to run against Donald Trump and wants to run against him --

CORNISH: There is not that much a choice. Obviously, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis would like to see differently, but --

JENNINGS: Sure. But the voting is about to start. And as David just pointed out, trying to have Biden going after Trump on this issue, to the -- to the opinion polling you just read, Republicans again will find a way around to rallying around Trump at this moment.

MATTINGLY: Do you think that's true? We talk to Democrats and they looked at the dynamics of Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump -- maybe not Ron DeSantis, but I think they'd rather face Donald Trump than Nikki Haley. But the existential threat that is pointed out in advertisement and pointed out in speeches, that's a pretty risky game to play if you just want Trump to be the nominee, if you think he is that dangerous.

AXELROD: Yes, no, I think for the commonweal it's a risky game.

[08:10:04]

And I don't know if -- I mean, that's Scott's theory. It may or may not be true. But what is certainly true is that these indictments that people thought were going to be kryptonite have turned out to be battery packs for him in the Republican primary. So this issue has not hurt him among his base.

JENNINGS: Base being the key.

CORNISH: Right. And not a message for independents.

I think we have a little sound of one of his attorneys kind of talking about where she thinks this is going.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ALINA HABBA, ATTORNEY FOR FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: I think it should be a slam dunk in the Supreme Court. I have faith in them. You know, people like Kavanaugh, who the president fought for, who the president went through hell to get into place, he'll step up. Those people will step up not because they are pro-Trump, but because they are pro-law, because they are pro-fairness. And the law in this is very clear.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: Scott just had very cogent analysis.

JENNINGS: Let me get real technical. Bad. You can't go on TV as a lawyer defending somebody and say Brett Kavanaugh, he is going to vote for Trump because he likes Donald Trump. Terrible, terrible idea. Should not have done that. I tend to agree with her analysis as a pundit that the Supreme Court is likely to side with Donald Trump. But when you go on --

MATTINGLY: On a legal basis or because he nominated them?

JENNINGS: On a legal basis. I don't think the Supreme Court is going to want to be responsible for throwing a presidential candidate off the ballot in all 50 states. But when you go on TV and start to give political reasons why justices should vote for you or not, that is a terrible idea. AXELROD: Yes. And by the way, there are going to be other issues that

they're probably going to have to decide. And you certainly don't want to antagonize them. But I just have two words for her that she should contemplate -- lifetime appointment. They are beyond the reach of Donald Trump. Not that they are not sensitive to politics, but I agree with Scott. I think not a wise strategy.

MATTINGLY: I've got to be honest, I would have loved to have been in the room when your former boss, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell heard those comments. That would have been an interesting response. David Axelrod, Scott Jennings, thanks, guys. We appreciate it.

CORNISH: We have also got new details on the deadly school shooting in Iowa. What the gunman reportedly posted on TikTok right before the shooting.

MATTINGLY: And at this moment, it sure looks like we are headed for a Trump-Biden rematch at the end of this year. David Chalian is going to join us to break down each candidate's early potential possible path to 270 electoral votes. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:16:13]

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back.

We are 10 days away from the Iowa caucus, and if you don't believe me, we have a clock and 10 months from the general election.

CNN is taking an early look at this moment, in a potential Biden versus Trump rematch. In the electoral math, each would need to capture the coveted necessary 270 electoral votes to win the White House.

Joining us now is CNN political director, David Chalian, and David, you and I both know all of the caveats apply here. It is very early. There is still a Republican primary. We don't know how any number of things are going to shake out.

However, when you look at kind of pathways here, what do things stand?

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: And just to also be clear, Phil, we're just taking a look at a snapshot of where things stand today, at the beginning of 2024. This isn't predictive or looking forward to where we'll end up.

Just to remind people where we left off in the road to 270 in 2020 with Joe Biden's victory at 306 electoral votes to Donald Trump's 232 electoral votes.

If you look at the breakdown of states in our electoral college outlook today, what you see here is Donald Trump with 272 electoral votes based on the states that are either solidly in his corner or leaning in his direction, Joe Biden down to 225 electoral votes with the blue states that are either deep blue, solid lean in his direction, or the light blue, leaning his way, and you've got these yellow states that are true toss-ups in this race right now, Phil.

Again, I think that shows three things. One, this is going to be an extraordinarily close presidential race again. Joe Biden is struggling at this start of the year to recreate his victorious coalition on the electoral map from 2020, and that Donald Trump is indeed as a potential Republican nominee, very much in the hunt for a return to the White House.

MATTINGLY: Extraordinarily close. Got to come down to six to seven states, almost no matter what, Trump can definitely win. What changes this current snapshot?

CHALIAN: Yes. I mean, listen, right now, we have states here that obviously Joe Biden won that currently are leaning in Donald Trump's direction. So imagine if you will hear Michigan, we have rated as leaning Republican at the moment. This is based on polling and reporting and conversations with people who say, but if that reverts back to its normal sort of toss-up status, you immediately see that Donald Trump goes down below the 270, he is at 257.

Imagine if the same thing were to happen with Georgia, which Biden won last time and Nevada, again, a state we have leaning to Trump right now, but that Biden won last time and you see it's 225 to 235 and you see where the battleground is going to be here, Phil.

So it is not impossible to imagine that Joe Biden will have some of these states that he won last time come back into more competitive territory. At the moment, though, he's got to win everything we have rated as a toss-up and actually claw back at least one of those states that's leaning in Trump's direction that he won in 2020.

MATTINGLY: Yes, it is a bumpy path ahead, but one that does exist. David Chalian, thank you.

CHALIAN: Thanks, Phil.

AUDIE CORNISH, CNN ANCHOR AND CORRESPONDENT: Joining us now is former governor of Maryland, Larry Hogan.

He is also national co-chair of the centrist group, No Labels, which is actively considering running a third party candidate for president. Welcome to the program.

LARRY HOGAN (R), FORMER MARYLAND GOVERNOR: Good morning.

CORNISH: I want to start -- good morning.

I want to start by mentioning that you ruled out a presidential run yourself back in March, you said you didn't want to be part of "a multi-car pileup." So here we are just a few days out from Iowa. Who should drop out?

HOGAN: Well, you know, I think that's for those candidates to decide, but I think it depends on what happens here in Iowa frankly. So I thought first of all last night, the townhall, both the candidates did better than I'd seen them perform before. CNN did a good job putting on the townhalls. It was a good format.

[08:20:07]

I thought that Ron DeSantis, first time I'd seen the whole campaign actually was connecting with voters and seemed to be, you know, more human and more real. Nikki Haley was really on top of her game and especially strong on foreign policy.

But look, they're both fighting for a distant second place in Iowa and it is neck and neck. That's going to determine I think what happens before and after New Hampshire because if DeSantis comes out with a strong win, he may move into New Hampshire and start to make some progress, but if he loses, it's pretty much over for him. He's in fourth place currently in New Hampshire behind Chris Christie.

So, you know, I think we'll know a lot more in the next week or two. And at this point, I don't think anything's going to happen or anyone's going to get out. But after Iowa, you might see in between those two primaries, you might see some action.

CORNISH: What is No Labels looking for in terms of when it's going to decide whether or not to mount a challenge? Like, what are -- what's the thing that would draw you in?

HOGAN: Yes, well, I'm not sure it would draw me in or it would draw them in. I'm a former honorary chairman of No Labels, but I'm really focused on trying to see if we can't find a Republican to win the nomination that's not Donald Trump, because I think he gives my party the worst opportunity to win, even though we just saw the poll numbers and he is ahead of Biden, as Nikki Haley pointed out last night, she's 17 points ahead of Biden, and Trump is pretty much neck and neck and DeSantis is losing, so I thought that was a strong argument.

But No Labels is saying, look, probably after we see all of this mess and the train car wreck in the next couple of months, they have until March or so when you get past Super Tuesday. And if everybody in the country realizes that we're stuck with two very unappealing candidates, that 70 percent of the country doesn't want and there is a chance that they might try to put together a unity ticket, to have the courage to put the country first and put together a Republican and a Democratic top-tier candidate or ticket that could compete.

CORNISH: We've been talking a lot today about the fact that the former president is choosing to attend next week's federal appeals court arguments in his case where he is talking about presidential immunity. So he'll be in a courtroom just before the Iowa caucuses.

I want to play for you some of the conversation last night from Ron DeSantis on this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. RON DESANTIS (R-FL), 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Whatever may be beneficial in the primary doesn't mean it's beneficial in the general election, and I think a 2024 election where the Democrats get to run against a candidate that is going through all this stuff, that is going to give the Democrats and advantage.

Where we're putting the future of the Republican Party and the future of the nation, perhaps in the hands of 12 jurors in heavily Democrat DC.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: It's pretty clear that the Trump campaign feels like it's to their benefit to some extent that people rally around the former president. How are you thinking about this?

HOGAN: Well, it's a strange situation, and that we're -- it is two different sets of people that are watching this and who are making up their minds. And strangely, I can't quite explain it myself, but a pretty solid percentage of the base. Republican primary votes actually likes all this attention and sees it as unfair, overzealous prosecution and weaponization of the Justice Department, and that's actually instead of bringing Trump down, it is raising him up.

But I would agree with Ron DeSantis in that, this is not helping with swing voters, and it is no way -- you know, every election is determined by the folks in the middle, not the right wing or the left base of the Democratic Party. And those folks, it's how are they going to look at some of these cases. It's like Court TV, in between every primary, he is in court somewhere in the country, defending himself on one of the 93 charges against him.

CORNISH: To that end, Joe Biden is definitely reminding people of what he considers a threat. The campaign has released their first ad of 2024, and it doesn't focus necessarily on the economy, et cetera. It focuses on the threat to democracy that he says is posed by a second Trump term. Here is that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: There is something dangerous happening in America. There is an extremist movement that does not share the basic beliefs in our democracy.

All of us are being asked right now, what will we do to maintain our democracy? Histories watch, the world is watching. Most important, our children and grandchildren will hold us responsible.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: Back in 2020, Joe Biden sort of used Charlottesville in a similar manner, and you earlier talked about the base, but what about independent voters? Swing voters? Do you think this message still resonates these years later?

[08:25:00]

HOGAN: I think it will. I think it has the opposite impact with Republican primary voters because they're just not listening to that message, but I think it does.

This is a message, I think that could be a winning message. I think it's smart for the Biden campaign to focus on that, on January 6th.

Look, I was the next door governor getting the desperate calls from leaders of Congress to come save the Capitol from the insurrection and send in the Maryland National Guard, and the Maryland State Police first ones to arrive and I said something very similar to that the day after January 6th.

So I think that there are plenty of people in the middle, Republican, Democrat, and independent, who do believe this was an assault on our democracy, one of the worst days in American history, and I think reminding people of what that was like, but we're not -- you're not going to swing the Trump voters. They just are not.

I don't know how it happens, but they just believe it was, you know, friendly tourists at the Capitol and nothing bad happened and Trump didn't incite a riot. But I think -- and when you get to the general election, it has complete opposite effect in a primary. It pumps them up.

In a general election, I think that's going to be a very winning message.

CORNISH: Larry Hogan, thank you so much for speaking with us.

HOGAN: Thank you.

CORNISH: And next Wednesday at 9:00 PM Eastern, Jake Tapper and Dana Bash moderates CNN's Republican presidential debate. That's going to be live from Iowa.

MATTINGLY: Well, this morning, Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads to the Middle East again as multiple flashpoints threaten to erupt into a regional war. Israel reveals its next phase of the war against Hamas in Gaza.

CORNISH: And a new study estimating that 300,000 lives could be saved from gun violence if every state followed the lead of two states. We'll tell you which ones, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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