Return to Transcripts main page

CNN This Morning

Iowa Republicans Head to the Polls to Choose a Presidential Nominee; Life-Threatening Wind-Chills Hit Iowa During Caucuses; Rex Heuermann, Suspect in Gilgo Beach Serial Killings, Expected to Be Charged in Fourth Murder. Aired 5-5:30a ET

Aired January 15, 2024 - 05:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[05:00:00]

PHIL MATTINGLY, CO-ANCHOR, CNN THIS MORNING: Good Monday morning everyone, I'm Phil Mattingly with Poppy Harlow in New York. Kasie Hunt is live for us in Des Moines, and the day has finally arrived. Iowa Republicans are getting ready to choose their nominee for president. We're about to find out just how strong Donald Trump's grip on his party is or if his rivals can pull off a stunning upset.

The latest polling shows a continuation of what we've seen, the former president heading into the caucuses with a dominant double-digit lead.

POPPY HARLOW, CO-ANCHOR, CNN THIS MORNING: These are set to be the coldest Iowa caucuses ever on record with dangerously low temperatures, the high in Des Moines today, negative 1 wind-chills up to negative 40 degrees are possible today. That is cold. You can get frost bite in just about ten minutes.

We've got our correspondents on the ground in Iowa and political analysts standing by. Let's start with Kasie Hunt by the Mars Cafe. And good morning Kasie, good morning, good very early morning to you, frigid, I know, but a make or break day for these candidates.

KASIE HUNT, ANCHOR, EARLY START: It is frigid indeed. My location, it's negative 15 degrees right now at this very early hour here at the Mars Cafe in Des Moines. And it really does feel like a much different caucus season this time around, and there are a couple of reasons for that.

One has just been that Donald Trump's lead here has been so dominant the entire time that there really is this kind of sense -- the adrenaline rush, that kind of sense of urgency from the campaign trail is just not quite where it usually is for something like this.

And it's -- I mean, it's easy to understand -- to understand why? Obviously, Ron DeSantis has really staked everything here, and one of the major story lines coming out of tonight is going to be whether or not he actually -- as the person who came in with the thinking that he was the most likely to be the person that could take on Donald Trump and potentially beat him in this nomination fight.

Whether or not he can actually keep his campaign going, because there are real questions about whether he can come in with that second-place finish that everyone that I'm talking to here on the ground says he absolutely needs to avoid questions about whether or not he's going to have to end his campaign here in the next week or so.

Of course, the storyline across the entire race really has been Nikki Haley and her late surge here, that critical "Des Moines Register" poll done by Ann Selzer for every one of these contests put her into second place for the first time here in this state.

But the question of course, can she actually perform those expectations? And really, the question, guys, the cold, it is really bad enough that it is going to affect whether or not people get out. And so, I think the question about those numbers, they were asking these people last week, hey, are you going to come out to caucus?

A lot of them, particularly for Ron DeSantis, said yes, they were going to. It's a lot different when you are actually facing this cold to get out. So our CNN's Eva McKend has been on the ground in Iowa, she's been doing the hard-work, tracking all the candidates in the final push. Eva, what have you seen in the final hours here in Iowa?

EVA MCKEND, CNN NATIONAL POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Kasie, Nikki Haley telling her supporters to wear layers, get out and participate in the caucus tonight. Governor DeSantis for his part, he is forecasting a strong performance. Former President Donald Trump, he's telling his backers don't take anything for granted.

You know, after months of campaigning, spending millions of dollars in ads, it all comes down really to how Iowans, they respond to this brutal weather.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MCKEND (voice-over): The 2024 presidential race is heating up as temperatures are dropping in Iowa.

NIKKI HALEY, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Get excited!

MCKEND: Iowans are battling snow and below zero temperatures as they head out to caucus in the first voting event to determine the Republican nominee for president.

DONALD TRUMP, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: So brave the weather and go out and save America.

MCKEND: Iowa's GOP chairman predicting a robust voter-turnout despite frigid temperatures. The remaining candidates holding their final campaign events in the Hawkeye State over the weekend.

[05:05:00]

GOV. RON DESANTIS (R-FL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We have the ability -- here in Iowa, you have the ability to change the trajectory of American politics.

MCKEND: And making their final pitches to caucus goers. VIVEK RAMASWAMY, ENTREPRENEUR & PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: By the way,

in this late phase, we have seen a tidal wave in the last 48 hours. I think we went out of caucus.

HALEY: You can be the start of the solution that we have. I promise you, our best days are yet to come.

MCKEND: Former President Trump who holds a commanding polling lead heading into the caucus spent the weekend campaigning in Iowa.

TRUMP: You can't sit home!

(APPLAUSE)

If you're sick as a dog, you say, darling, I've got a bad day, even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it.

MCKEND: During his rally, he targeted former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who is in a distant fight for second place.

TRUMP: But she's not right to be president. I know it very well. Wrong -- the wrong thought process, the wrong policy and honestly, she's not tough enough.

HALEY: No one ever questions my toughness. He's saying this because now he knows he's in trouble. Now, he knows this is becoming a two- person race. So I know that what -- that he knows the truth, it doesn't bother me at all.

MCKEND: Trump also picked up important endorsements on the eve of the caucus, including North Dakota governor and former presidential candidate Doug Burgum and Florida Senator Marco Rubio.

HALEY: I don't line up a bunch of endorsements to do that. I want to win the people's vote. Because at the end of the day, they are the ones that I'm going to be serving.

MCKEND: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis also faced criticism from Trump. At his final campaign stop in Iowa, he tried to distinguish himself from the frontrunner.

DESANTIS: He's running a campaign about putting himself and his issues first. That's what he cares about. You can be the most worthless Republican in America, but if you kiss the ring, he will say you're wonderful. You deserve a nominee that's going to put you first, not himself first.

(CHEERS)

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MCKEND: Now, the Iowans I speak to, they say that they are still planning to caucus tonight, that this tradition is too sacred and the stakes are too high. Kasie?

HUNT: All right, Eva McKend for us in Des Moines. Eva, thank you. Poppy?

HARLOW: Kasie, thank you, get back to you in just a sec. Well, you remember Donald Trump did not win the Iowa caucuses in 2016, he finished second to Ted Cruz. There is a lot to learn from those 2016 results. They can show us where former President Trump can expect to do well and where maybe there are some in-roads for Haley and DeSantis. Phil at the magic wall with much more on that. Good morning.

MATTINGLY: Good morning, Poppy. So there's never really a perfect analog where you can certainly look back at the key areas of 2016 and get a sense of what people are looking for tonight. This is the map right now, it is all light gray, it is not filled-in, that's because we haven't started counting votes yet. We're about to.

It's the best time of year, it will happen this evening. But as we look towards this evening, we've seen all of the polls, we've seen all of the public appearances, we've seen all of the surrogates out talking. What about the votes themselves? Let's flash back to 2016, the Republican primary.

Shortly before the primary, the last poll had Donald Trump ahead, Ted Cruz actually won. Why did Ted Cruz win? It's pretty key here when you look at what Ted Cruz did and what people like Ron DeSantis are trying to do this time around.

If you go into the northwest area where Cruz had serious strength, this is an evangelical territory, this is where Donald Trump was unable to make in-roads. Also down here in the southern part of the state, these are rural areas, these are evangelical areas and these are areas where Trump struggled in 2016.

There has been a significant amount of focus down here for DeSantis, but also for Trump. Can he eat in to some of that territory right now? In terms of where Trump has major strength, well, all you need to do is look in this area right here in the eastern part of the state.

These are areas that actually used to be back in 2012, back in 2008, these were Democratic strongholds. These were counties that Barack Obama actually won back in 2012. Donald Trump flipped them, they've been parts of strength for him throughout the course of the last several years.

He needs to turn out in major ways there, and try to eat away at some of the advantages in the evangelical territories that DeSantis has been trying to pick up over the course of the last eight to ten months, Poppy.

HARLOW: Tell us, Phil, about where Haley and DeSantis can make in- roads, where Trump showed weakness, that maybe he -- weakness that remains from this time around?

MATTINGLY: Yes, it's definitely, if you look at where Ron DeSantis has been going over the course of the last seven or eight months, it is being almost entirely -- not entirely, but in large part, these areas, trying to mimic what --

HARLOW: Yes --

MATTINGLY: Ted Cruz did. But I also think you need to pay attention to what Marco Rubio did. Now, Marco Rubio just surprised some people. He came in third place, a strong third place, and if you look at the regions where he actually did quite well, these are the suburbs, these are the areas where he ran up big votes, these are big population centers.

This is Iowa City, Johnson County where obviously the University of Iowa is over here, and Davenport as well, these are areas where Nikki Haley is going to have to do something very similar. So, if you want to see kind of where the big population areas are in the state, look at the size of the bubbles, the bigger the bubble, the more people that are there.

If you look at the big bubbles, you will see the big population centers, Marco Rubio, Marco Rubio, Marco Rubio, Marco Rubio, Marco Rubio.

[05:10:00]

Now, if you're Nikki Haley, you're saying that's great, I want to run up a lot of vote there, but that's also what made third place in 2016.

HARLOW: Right --

MATTINGLY: So we're going to need to spread out and go to maybe a little bit further north and try and pick up some votes there as well. So big population centers are critical, especially the way population has moved into those centers the last couple of years. It won't be enough, particularly, given Trump's strength around the Essex, around the rural parts of the area.

Can they push out if you're Nikki Haley. If you're Ron DeSantis, can you get the evangelical vote and cut in, on the suburbs as well? Those -- the answers to those questions will determine what happens tonight, Poppy.

HARLOW: Fascinating, right. Phil, thank you very much for that. Well, Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis all today out with their -- pockets, making their final pitch to Iowa voters with dangerous sub- zero temps on caucus day. Which candidate has the best ground game to get out the vote?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[05:15:00]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DESANTIS: I think we've done it right here. We showed up, we answered the questions, we shook the hands. I mean, people know who tried to earn it and who didn't, and who thinks they're entitled to it. We showed you've got to earn this thing. I'm not a ruler, I'm a servant.

I think everybody will know, I think you'll see -- you'll see a strong performance, we'll turn our people out.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNT: All right, welcome back, I'm Kasie Hunt live in Des Moines in Iowa. And that right there was GOP presidential candidate Ron DeSantis. He of course, as you do, was projecting confidence in turnout from his voter base and his campaign's ground strategy here in the Hawkeye State.

DeSantis like rival Vivek Ramaswamy has really staked his entire campaign on succeeding here. He has been across the state, heavily trying to sway voters in a state that served of course, as the nation's first presidential testing ground for half a century.

Here with me now is "Semafor" politics reporter Shelby Talcott and Laura Belin; political reporter for "Bleeding Heartland". Thank you both so much for being up in basically the middle of the night here in Iowa. But it's the biggest day on the political calendar here, and I'm thrilled to have you both with us.

Laura, let me just start with you. You live here, you know what the cold is or isn't like. It really is all anyone can talk about, because it is so intense that it really is going to potentially change how this thing turns out. How do you think it's going to change it?

LAURA BELIN, EDITOR & PUBLISHER, BLEEDING HEARTLAND: Absolutely, it is really extreme. And I'm -- personally, I'm very disappointed that the weather didn't cooperate, we've had an unseasonably warm Winter and with not --

HUNT: I've heard that --

BELIN: That much snow until about a week ago --

HUNT: In fact, I've heard that before I landed here yesterday.

BELIN: And I have attended caucuses since 1988, and I mean, it's typically, it's cold in January in Iowa, and Iowans are used to cold, but this is really very extreme, and particularly for people who are living in rural areas who may have to drive quite a distance, the road conditions might not be that good.

And I think it is certainly going to keep turnout way down. I was expecting turnout possibly to set a record for Republicans, but I don't think that's -- there's any chance of that happening with this weather.

HUNT: Yes, I will say the sources I've talked to, have basically said the opposite, that it's likely going to be lower than what they anticipate. Shelby, you've been on the ground here covering this race. And what are you looking for as we head into tonight?

SHELBY TALCOTT, POLITICS REPORTER, SEMAFOR: Yes, so I think I'm looking to see in particular how Donald Trump does in this state. He's obviously projected to win by huge margins. One of the arguments I've heard from the opposing campaigns is, if he does not win by those large margins, then that should be a red flag.

At the same time, his campaign has sort of made sure to temper expectations here in Iowa when I've talked to their aides on the ground, they've said, well, no one has won the state by more than, I think, 12.8 points, so anything above that is going to be considered a victory for team Trump --

HUNT: Yes, it's like expectation setting, right?

TALCOTT: Of course. But of course, I'm also looking to see how Ron DeSantis does, and whether the ground game that he has developed here in Iowa will actually end up helping him more than we think based on the polls.

HUNT: Yes, so, Laura, let me ask you about that because Ron DeSantis has really run a traditional Iowa caucus campaign. He's got the endorsement from the family leaders, Bob Vander Plaats who has sway over that classic, evangelical conservative community.

He's got the governor which is actually pretty unusual. Do you think that, that especially considering the weather is actually going to stand up under the circumstances?

BELIN: I'm very skeptical. First of all, endorsements, I don't think endorsements are as important for the caucuses as candidates make them out to be. And the ground game -- you know, DeSantis campaign, they have said or they never back down Super PAC, I should say, which is basically running the DeSantis campaign.

They've said they collected 30,000 commitment cards, then I saw Steve Deace(ph), who is a radio host endorsing DeSantis, said they had 60,000. And I want to know, I mean, when were those cards collected? Because when you get a commitment from someone, four months, six months before the caucus, that is much less valuable than if somebody told you a week or two ago they are going to be there.

And I am just a little bit skeptical as I mentioned that, the weather is going to be very difficult for people to be out, and I think psychologically, I expect Trump to just blow the doors off, because I think that if you're trying to get motivated to leave your house when it's -- and when you said minus 15, that's not the wind-chill, that is the --

TALCOTT: Actual temperature --

BELIN: Actual temperature. So, it's more --

HUNT: I know.

BELIN: Exciting to go to an event when you think you're going to be on the winning team. If you think your guy is like scrapping and trying to get second place, I don't think that is motivating for people.

HUNT: So just like -- let me follow up on that. How have you seen -- like when you talk to Trump supporters here in Iowa, how does their support for him come across in a way that's different than for the other candidates? You used the word fanatical when we were talking --

BELIN: He --

HUNT: Before we came --

BELIN: Has just -- so first of all, he has a lot of people who are supporting him who have never attended a caucus before. And I mean, that is how -- it's difficult to turn people from a non-voter to a voter, that's more difficult than persuading somebody who regularly votes.

[05:20:00]

But Trump's campaign at all of his rallies, they ask people -- they ask for a show of hands how many people have never been to a caucus? And it's a huge number. And I think that the ground game that he has built is even bigger than the DeSantis one.

And so, I just feel that his supporters will be there for him. They feel so strongly that he is the only person, and they say things like he can prevent World War III. I mean, that is -- they view it as extremely important. And I wanted to say one thing about Nikki Haley, she seems to be building like a Marco Rubio coalition from 2016.

So urban counties, suburban areas, college towns. And Marco Rubio finished a pretty close 30, it was only about 1 percentage point behind Donald Trump in 2016. And also Nikki Haley has support from independents. Now, we don't know how many independents will participate in the Republican caucus, but the roads are in a lot better shape in urban and suburban areas --

HUNT: Yes --

BELIN: Than they are out in the country.

HUNT: Now, it's a really good point. I just want to also mention that those are people that also have big SUVs because they tend to be a little bit more affluent. I want to show you, Shelby, speaking of Nikki Haley, this is what Donald Trump had to say about Nikki Haley in this -- in the final hours of campaigning yesterday. Take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: She's not right to be president. I know it very well. Wrong -- the wrong thought process, the wrong policy, and honestly, she's not tough enough. She's not tough enough. We're dealing with people that are on their game at a level that you've never seen. President Xi of China, Putin.

HALEY: He's saying this because now he knows he's in trouble. Now, he knows this is becoming a two-person race. So I know what -- that he knows the truth, it doesn't bother me at all.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNT: So, Shelby, there's always some truth to the fact, that if someone is attacking you, it's probably because they're vaguely threatened by you. What do you make of how Trump framed that?

TALCOTT: Yes, I mean, I think if you talk to Trump's campaign of course, they're expressing confidence here, they're expressing confidence in New Hampshire. I think Trump's campaign is less nervous about this state when it comes to Nikki Haley, but I do think that they are keeping an eye on New Hampshire.

We've seen him ramp-up his political events there. He has several already in the books after Iowa. His campaign is actually buying ads on left-leaning networks in an effort to dissuade independent voters from turning out for her --

HUNT: Oh, that's fascinating --

TALCOTT: In the state. And so, it's been really interesting to see him ramp-up his rhetoric. At the same time, we've also seen him continue to attack Ron DeSantis. I think that's less about being intimidated by Ron DeSantis at this point, and more about the fact that he has just this dislike for the Florida governor that is --

HUNT: Right --

TALCOTT: A little bit different than his feelings towards Nikki Haley.

HUNT: It's absolutely palpable.

TALCOTT: Yes.

HUNT: For sure. Shelby Talcott, Laura Belin, thank you guys both for being with us today.

BELIN: Thank you.

HUNT: All right, back to you, Phil.

MATTINGLY: Well, there's Kasie. It is caucus day in Iowa where the stakes are quite high, but the temperatures are extremely low. The forecast for bone-chilling cold and strong winds voters left to brave to cast their ballot, that's ahead.

HARLOW: Also live pictures right now. Take a look at this, is Iceland, evacuations underway due to slow-moving lava from that volcano. It's a new crack in that nearby volcano, around 60 homes have fled the area so far. Back in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[05:25:00]

HARLOW: We do have some sad news to report this morning. The hero Iowa principal who tried to save his students during that mass shooting at Perry High School earlier this month has died from his injuries. Dan Marburger was shot multiple times while talking to the shooter, trying to distract him, trying to save the lives of the kids there. The shooter at the school right near Des Moines, Iowa, killed six --

injured a six-year-old -- killed a six-year-old student and wounded six others.

MATTINGLY: Well, a fourth murder charge is expected to be filed against the suspected Gilgo Beach serial killer. Sources telling CNN, Rex Heuermann is expected in court on Tuesday. The Massapequa Park architect is already facing murder charges in the killing of three women whose bodies were discovered in 2010 along a stretch of Long Island's Gilgo Beach. He's pleaded not guilty.

Now, authorities have previously said Heuermann is also the prime suspect in the killing of Maureen Brainard-Barnes, her remains were found near the same location as the other women.

HARLOW: Also new this morning, police in Philadelphia are trying to catch whoever defaced a holocaust memorial with a swastika. Take a look at this, here's a surveillance image released by the Philadelphia Holocaust Remembrance Foundation, and the executive director told CNN, the memorial was defaced early Sunday morning about 1:30 a.m.

Philadelphia police said officers responded just after 2:00 in the afternoon to a report of a swastika spray painted on the wall and immediately launched an investigation. Anyone with information is urged to contact the Philadelphia Police Department.

MATTINGLY: Well, this morning, brutal record-breaking frigid temperatures hitting the Midwest as Iowa voters begin to caucus where life-threatening wind-chills of up to minus 40 are expected. The Des Moines area experiencing its snowiest weeks since 1942, that Arctic blast and heavy lake-effect snow also impacting the northeast.

Snow in the south as well, stretching from Texas to Virginia. More than 60 million people are under Winter weather alerts today. Meteorologist Allison Chinchar has been tracking all of it. Allison, today's caucus is set to be the coldest in Iowa history, the day's high, well, you know, just 2 degrees Fahrenheit?

ALLISON CHINCHAR, METEOROLOGIST: Yes, it's -- I mean, and it's by a long shot. That record was not even close when you compare to previous caucuses. But Iowa is not alone, take a look at how many people are under these wind-chill alerts? They stretch from the North Dakota, Canada border, all the way down to south Texas right up against the Mexico border.

So you've got a lot of folks here that are dealing with extremely cold temperatures, and it's going to last through the day today, and for some, even for a few more days. Right now in this mark, it feels like it is 39 degrees below normal, when you factor in that wind-chill. Minneapolis, the temperature is.