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Haley and DeSantis Chase Trump Heading into Iowa Caucuses; Trump Eyes Big Win in Iowa; Michael Tyler is Interviewed about the Biden Campaign. Aired 6:30-7a ET

Aired January 15, 2024 - 06:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[06:32:43]

KASIE HUNT, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back to CNN THIS MORNING, live from the Mars Cafe in Des Moines, Iowa. Republicans here getting set to brave life-threatening temperatures, subzero windchills to cast their ballots in the closely followed caucuses today. At stake, Iowa's 40 delegates and, probably more crucially, momentum heading into the New Hampshire primary. And, of course, as we know, Iowa is an expectations game.

So, where do we start here? Donald Trump, the far and away frontrunner. He's really taken so much suspense out of the caucuses here. Fifty percent -- if he is over 50 percent, that is exactly what his -- the expectations that his team, honestly, they have been trying to lower. But he was -- if he's above 50, nothing about this race changes. If he starts to creep below 50, as he did in the Iowa poll, and it's actually falling further down, I think you're going to see some conversation around that as we hit -- head into New Hampshire.

But, really, the person for whom tonight is going to be everything, Ron DeSantis. He absolutely needs to come in second place. I mean, the end. If he comes in, in third, below Nikki Haley, there are going to be significant questions about what is next for him because it's going to be Haley that's going to get another shot at Donald Trump in New Hampshire to the point that DeSantis has announced he's going straight from here on to South Carolina, which is the following contest.

Nikki Haley was the governor of South Carolina, and she, at this point, expectations are higher for her than they were, which is a little bit of a risk for any campaign. The final Iowa poll showed her moving into second place over Ron DeSantis for the first time in that particular poll.

However, as long as she doesn't collapse, Haley is really going to get another shot in New Hampshire. The real thing that - that Iowa could be for her, if she gets second, is a springboard. That would send her to New Hampshire with momentum that I don't think any of us particularly expected, especially because she honestly hasn't made a big a play for Iowa until here in the final weeks, Poppy.

POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: Kasie, thank you. We'll get back to you soon.

Today the campaign dollars, the canvasing hours, and the poll numbers all combining and coming to a head in Iowa. Let's take a look at some of the numbers that shaped today's first in the nation caucuses.

[06:35:03]

Hat tip, by the way, to Shane Goldmacher, who laid out some of the most fascinating numbers over the weekend in "The New York Times."

First up, the number 28. That is how many percentage points former President Trump is leading by in the final Iowa poll by "The Des Moines Register." It shows Trump with 48 percent. Think about this. That is the largest lead seen in any final "Des Moines Register" poll and more than double the largest margin of victory for Republican in previous Iowa caucuses. You've got Nikki Haley at 20 percent, Ron DeSantis at 16 percent.

The next number you want to focus on is 61. That is the percentage of likely Republican caucus goers in Iowa who are only mildly enthusiastic or just not enthusiastic at all about Nikki Haley, That's, again, "The Des Moines Register" polling. Thirty-nine percent are extremely or very enthusiastic about her. But you can compare that to Trump, who can boasts enthusiasm for 88 percent of his supporters. Haley, for her part, says those numbers don't reflect what she is feeling on the ground.

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NIKKI HALEY (R), 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The momentum and the energy on the ground is strong. We feel it. We know that this is moving in the right direction. And, to me, the only numbers that matter are the ones that we're going up and everybody else went down.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: Up next, 99. That is how many counties, of course, there are in Iowa. That is how many counties Ron DeSantis has visited, the full Grassley, all of them. The pro-DeSantis, super PAC, Never Back Down, says it knocked on more than 940,000 doors in the state alone. DeSantis is relying on that ground operation to push turnout and defy his recent slip in polling.

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GOV. RON DESANTIS (R-FL), 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We've got a huge number of people that have committed to caucus, and we expect that these are the people that turn out. So, there's a lot of excitement on the ground. We're in this for the long haul.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: And this will put a chill in your morning. The next number is negative 35, as in degrees Fahrenheit. That is the potential windchill for Des Moines, Iowa, tonight. According to the National Weather Service, those life-threatening temps can cause frostbite on exposed skin in just ten minutes. How will it impact turnout? That's a big question on the candidates' minds tonight.

Here's what Trump thinks.

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DONALD TRUMP (R), FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT AND 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You can't sit home. If you're sick as a dog, you say, darling, I've got to make it. Even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it.

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HARLOW: It's not worth it, by the way, but you get the gist.

Up next, two. That is how many times non-incumbents have won the Iowa caucuses and then went on to secure the Republican nomination. Since 1980, only in 2000 with George W. Bush, in '96 with Bob Dole.

And finally a number Nikki Haley's team is certainly focused on. That's the number 8. That's the number of days until the New Hampshire primary. It's a big day today. It's all just getting started, Phil.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN ANCHOR: Well, if Nikki Haley can ride momentum into second place, where does that actually leave Ron DeSantis? Probably not in a great place. We'll discuss, next.

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[06:42:08]

HARLOW: Welcome back.

Former President Trump making his closing arguments to voters in Iowa, imploring them to show up. It doesn't matter if it's cold. It doesn't matter if it's snowy. Show up no matter what. That's what he said. Listen.

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DONALD TRUMP (R), FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT AND 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The caucus will be filled with a lot of great people. I say, if you're single, you'll probably meet your future husband or wife.

You can't sit home. If you're sick as a dog, you say, darling, I got to make it. Even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MATTINGLY: You're either going to get married or you're going to die.

HARLOW: Yes, one - one of the two options could happen tonight.

MATTINGLY: That's a pretty big deal. That's a - that's a good deal. That's a - HARLOW: The former president stressing how important it is for him to not only win in Iowa, but win big in Iowa. It's one of three critical questions that caucus goers could answer tonight, can Trump run up the score and meet the expectations or maybe exceed the expectations his already high polling has set.

Can Haley's recent momentum propel her into second place? Governor Sununu, of course, has called a strong second. If she does, the DeSantis campaign will face a tough questions, whether he can survive and if he has a path forward given his lackluster polling in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

With us now, CNN political analyst Karen Finney, CNN political commentator and anchor, John Avlon, CNN political analysts Alice Stuart and Geoff Duncan.

Hi, guys. Good morning.

JOHN AVLON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR AND ANCHOR: Good morning.

ALICE STEWART, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Good morning.

HARLOW: Alice, given all of your experience with the last three folks to win in Iowa, what is an actual win look like, not only for Trump tonight, who's polling at 48 percent, but for Nikki Haley, who I think the stakes just got higher because her polling got a bit better.

STEWART: Right. Right. And, you know, lessons learned from previous campaigns. Look, overplaying your expectations is critical for Nikki Haley. She has to do better than people are anticipating because what that does, it gives you the momentum heading into New Hampshire.

And what she has the benefit of that I don't think that DeSantis has is she has a ground game outside of Iowa. We've been talking about Iowa for so long. It is the first in the nation caucus, but it is not reflective of the nation. People in Iowa, they're white, more evangelical, they're more faith-based. You go into New Hampshire, it's a different demographic. It's a different focus. Same going into South Carolina, as well as Nevada. Nikki Haley will resonate in these other states, whereas Ron DeSantis doesn't have that benefit. He's skipping New Hampshire, going right to South Carolina. So, she benefits from having a more general election type of message moving forward out of Iowa, which will help her in this all-important delegate race.

So, doing well out of Iowa gives her momentum. Donors will pay attention. Voters will pay attention. And they will say, let's give her a chance because she is the non-Trump candidate that we've been looking for.

GEOFF DUNCAN, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Nikki Haley is the only person who has a chance to actually beat Donald Trump. We'll see at the end of today how likely that chance might be.

HARLOW: Well, what tells you that in terms of numbers?

MATTINGLY: Yes. HARLOW: The spread (ph)?

DUNCAN: Well, she's got momentum -- she's got momentum behind her.

[06:45:01]

And Ron DeSantis has - has fumbled the ball since right out of the gates, right? He tried to be Donald Trump lite, and that failed. He had all the money he needed to at least be a player, and then he just never figured out how to be likable. His trajectory is going downwards. Nikki's is going upwards. I think a win is Donald Trump below 50, Nikki above 20. And then that gives us a chance to parlays that into back-to-back weeks or wins or at least momentum builds. And then the - then the math gets tough and the math gets difficult. But that's really the only play.

I mean I think the frustrating point sitting here is that we -- we knew what the play was here. We knew that the play was to consolidate support behind one person that could take on Donald Trump. But, instead, you look at these gaudy numbers of what they carpet bombed each other with, DeSantis and Nikki. I mean it's unfathomable how much money they spent to just call each other bad names when they're both conservative, successful governors.

KAREN FINNEY, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes, but that's part of what's interesting about Nikki Haley. I mean she has sustained millions of dollars in attack ads and seems to be moving. That's a positive for her because she's going to have to be able to sustain that, particularly from Donald Trump, because he does not like running against women, and certainly not women of color, let me tell you. So, that will be really important.

But the other thing that Alice mentioned that is so critical, now begins the race for delegates. So, it's not just about -- it's about winning, it's about momentum, but it's all about racking up the delegate. And for Trump, his whole goal is to be unbeatable by Super Tuesday, right?

MATTINGLY: Yes.

FINNEY: So, 40 delegates coming out of Iowa, 22, I think, in New Hampshire.

STEWART: Twenty-two.

FINNEY: So, you know, keep an eye on that as well.

JOHN AVLON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST AND ANCHOR: Yes, I think - I think -- the big issue on that front is that the RNC and the Trump campaign early on made a lot of these states winner take all rather than proportional (ph). That benefits Donald Trump.

FINNEY: Right.

AVLON: They knew that. But I do think the expectations game, to the extent that's the marker

we look at coming out of these early states, actually the burden's on Donald Trump more than Nikki Haley. Momentum is definitely at Nikki Haley's side, but Trump's lead is so big that a lot of people, including some at this table, Phil, have been saying that it's virtually inevitable that he would win by large margins. And I think that that bar is so high that there's actually a lot of pressure on him. If he doesn't blow it away with 50 percent being a reasonable threshold, I think that's some erosion.

FINNEY: Now, because -

MATTINGLY: Name names, John Avlon.

AVLON: Phil Mattingly.

MATTINGLY: Name names.

But I think - go ahead.

FINNEY: If - I was just going to say, however, we know this rodeo. If he doesn't cross 50, well, clearly it was rigged. Clearly it was stolen.

AVLON: Yes. That's what he did with (INAUDIBLE).

FINNEY: I mean get ready to hear that because it's -- it's not just about, you know, the 2020 election.

MATTINGLY: Yes.

FINNEY: Get ready for the 2024 election to be all -- he's already starting to see the ground with the narrative.

AVLON: Yes.

MATTINGLY: I was going to ask you, the scale of the DeSantis operation, and, yes, the super PAC ran a lot of it. This is a new experiment, I think, for a lot of people.

STEWART: Right.

MATTINGLY: But the amount of time they put in, the amount of resources they put in, the amount of door knockers, the amount of calls, the amount of caucus commitment cards, is there a chance we're missing something here? Is there a chance that organization is about to turn something that we are not expecting?

STEWART: Well, that's a great question because so often times you - there is -- what's going on behind the scenes, it's not being covered in the news. And DeSantis had the benefit of all of this money at the very beginning. His PAC raised tremendous amounts of money. Jeff Roe knows how to lay the ground game in Iowa. They did all these door knockings and they -- mailings and phone calls, and a tremendous footprint. The question is, when Jeff Roe left -

AVLON: Yes.

STEWART: How much of that infrastructure did he take with him? And he did take some. But the reality is, DeSantis has the help and support of Bob Vander Plaats and The Family Leader organization, many faith leaders and pastors across the country that are committed, regardless of whose name is at the top of the PAC. So, that will be the interesting thing to see is, how much of that infrastructure that they're -- that those in the PAC put forward stayed there.

AVLON: Yes, and that God made Trump ad that Trump shared, I think, you know, for some folks in the faith-based community that will seem frankly idolatrous and might lead to a backlash. We'll see.

HARLOW: We're going to ask some pastors, evangelical pastors, from Iowa about that ad in a little bit.

AVLON: Good.

HARLOW: But, just, John, on the evangelical vote, why do you think it is that Trump hangs on to 51 percent of evangelical voters, compared to DeSantis's 22 percent in Iowa.

AVLON: I think Tim Alberta wrote a great book about just this dynamic, right? I mean, you know, what we've seen is, and he saw this with his own father, who was a pastor in Michigan, is that for a lot of evangelicals, idolatry around Trump and around - around the idea of defending America has supplanted the idea of actually the top of the ticket in your heart should always be Jesus Christ, and that messaging. And that's a real problem, I think, for a lot of evangelicals who are actually trying to be based in the Bible. And so we'll see whether - there's some people saying, look, we've got to pump the brakes here. We've got to - there's a wisdom to saying, you know, render under Cesar. It's not render under Trump. So, we'll see how that plays out.

DUNCAN: Yes, I think it's been a fatal flaw for Republicans, this evangelical stronghold that Donald Trump's had on it. But, you know, I think, at the end of the day, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis and the rest of the crowd have done a poor job in explaining Donald Trump and that he was the bright light for the Republican Party in 2016 but it's turned out to be a train coming down that tunnel.

And Donald Trump is the swamp, right?

[06:50:01]

I mean, I think - I think they've done a terrible job of explaining that he is the swamp. He is what he ran against in 2016.

FINNEY: DeSantis has said that. I think the challenge is, having gone up against Donald Trump, is a lot harder than you think. Like, you would think a direct frontal assault is the way to go. Ask Chris Christie. It doesn't work. With his faithful, they are not willing to let go.

I predict that Nikki Haley's approach, a more -- a woman - running as a woman has -- will be more successful.

STEWART: No, but Trump is certainly not the poster child for how to be a Christian, but he has their support for several reasons. What he did with the Supreme Court, Roe v. Wade, Israel. He made promises and he kept them with them. And that's why they're standing by him.

HARLOW: Alice, Geoff, Karen, John, thank you very, very much.

MATTINGLY: Thanks, guys.

Well, today is Martin Luther King Jr. Day as we honor the life and legacy of the celebrated civil rights leader. President Biden scheduled to arrive in Pennsylvania to participate in the Martin Luther King Jr. Day of Service. It's his third visit to the state in just two weeks. Remember, Biden's re-election campaign joins us to talk about that and what they're watching in Iowa. That's next.

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HUNT: Welcome back to CNN THIS MORNING.

And President Biden is scheduled to arrive in Pennsylvania this morning to participate in the Martin Luther King Jr. Day of Service.

[06:55:07]

It is the president's third year in a row volunteering at the Philabundance hunger relief organization in Philadelphia. It's also his third trip to the keystone state in less than two weeks, which, of course, highlights the importance of the state to his re-election campaign.

Joining us now is communications director for the Biden campaign, Michael Tyler.

Michael, good morning. It's great to have you.

This is a lot of time in Pennsylvania.

MICHAEL TYLER, COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR, BIDEN 2024 CAMPAIGN: Good morning. Thanks for having me on.

HUNT: There are, obviously, other swing states, of course,- on the map. Why - why now? Why PA?

TYLER: Well, Pennsylvania -- there's no doubt that Pennsylvania is going to be incredibly important towards our pathway to 270. The president's going to continue to visit the state, as he's going to continue to travel across all of the battleground states. We are now in January of 2024, the beginning of the election year, and so we're kicking this off by making sure that we're communicating exactly what is at stake in this election. That's what the president did in Valley Forge on Friday, what he did in Charleston on Monday. And I think, frankly, it's going to provide a very stark split screen between what we're going to see here in Iowa tonight where you have the most extreme slate of MAGA Republican candidates in history running for the Republican nomination. And so that's what's going to be on full display today for the American people to see.

HUNT: So, Michael, you're in Des Moines, but, of course, Democrats moved their calendar around this year and made South Carolina the first in the nation primary and took Iowa off the map all together. And next up is New Hampshire, where the president has had to mount a write-in campaign because he's not on the ballot, and he is facing a far off but a challenger nonetheless in Congressman Dean Phillips. Are there any nerves at all about how that write-in campaign is going, especially as Nikki Haley shows signs of life that could draw independents and maybe even Democrats into the Republican primary instead?

TYLER: Well, listen, this campaign has made clear that we're going to follow the rules put in place by the Democratic National Committee. That means South Carolina holds the first in the nation primary on February 3rd. And we are happy that we're campaigning there.

I think if you want to talk about the enthusiasm from the Democratic base for this president, you should look no further than today's fundraising announcement. We announced that we raised $97 million in the fourth quarter. That's $235 million since the launch of this campaign. Largely driven by grass roots donations. About 97 percent of the contributions that we got in the fourth quarter were under $200, right? Those are folks like teachers and nurses who are giving $5, $10 at a time by going to joebiden.com. They're doing so because they understand, a, what this president has done to fight on behalf of them, but they also understand what's at stake in this election, and that's whether or not we're going to hold on to what the president referred to as a sacred cause of America, which is our democracy.

And so we're excited about the enthusiasm that we've seen thus far in the race. We're excited for the fight ahead. We'll be watching closely to see who emerges here tonight in Iowa. We're ready to provide the American people with a stark contrast between the president, who's fighting for more freedom and more democracy, and these MAGA extremists, led by Donald Trump, who want to tear down the fabric of American democracy.

HUNT: So, Michael, "The New York Times" is reporting on possible divisions in the Biden campaign. I mean this kind of story is, we should say, often par for the course. But here is the specific version for Biden 2024. Quote, "so far, almost none of the people in the president's inner circle have left for campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware, prompting some donors and strategists to worry that too much of Mr. Biden's team remains cloistered inside the White House."

Now, this is a challenge for any White House that doesn't headquarter its campaign in the Washington, D.C., area. I understand that. But it does mean that some of the top voices and decision makers are not in Wilmington, where, you know, all of you guys are showing up to work every day. And with the Trump team showing that they have actually learned from their mistakes back in 2016 here in Iowa, and presumably also in 2020 against the president, how concerned are you that the campaign is ready to take on former President Donald Trump if he, in fact, emerges as the nominee? TYLER: This campaign is absolutely ready to take on Donald Trump if he

emerges as the Republican nominee. We've been gearing up for that fight since launch in April of 2023. We are scaling up our operation right now to meet the moment and meet the challenge presented by Donald Trump and the threat that he represents to American democracy.

The stakes are abundantly clear. There is a strong sense of urgency from this campaign, from the president himself. That's why he was adamant about getting out on the trail to kick off 2024 to lay out his vision for the future, but to remind the American people of the stakes of this election.

The threat has never been stronger facing American democracy that is embodied by Donald Trump, who is out here every single day, when he's not talking about banning abortion and ripping away health care from folks, is rooting for the economy to crash and is pledging to rule as a dictator on day one if he's able to regain power. So, absolutely there is a sense of urgency, and the work of our campaign reflects that urgency.

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HUNT: So, if that's - if that's all.