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Record-Breaking Cold Threatens Turnout At Iowa Caucuses; GOP Candidates And Allies Spent $123 Million In Iowa; Texas Facing Scrutiny After Woman, Children Die In Rio Grande. Aired 7:30-8a ET

Aired January 15, 2024 - 07:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL)

[07:33:24]

KASIE HUNT, CNN ANCHOR, "EARLY START": Good morning, everyone. I'm Kasie Hunt.

We are live in Des Moines, Iowa at the lovely Mars Cafe with a little less than 13 hours to go until the Iowa caucuses officially get underway this evening.

Here in Des Moines, it is negative 12 degrees right now and it is not expected to warm up all that much by caucus time. In fact, it will probably start getting cold again by the time we hit 7:00 p.m. local time. And tonight, Iowans are going to have to brave dangerous subzero temperatures if they want to go vote because it is forecast to be the coldest caucus night, basically, in modern record, as you can see from this graph here on your screen.

Despite these conditions, the Iowa Republican chairman Jeff Kaufmann predicted a strong turnout. Here's what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JEFF KAUFMANN, CHAIRMAN, IOWA GOP: I honestly believe that we're going to have a robust turnout as long as there's not ice on those roads. Iowans know those precautions. They know how to handle that. We're giving advice to all of our chairs to try to make sure that the lines are inside as they're moving through. This is Iowa winter and in the context of that, this is not anything that these individuals haven't faced over and over and over again.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNT: All right. Joining us right now is the man everyone wants to talk to today, Iowa Republican strategist David Kochel. Also, just a decades-long veteran of national campaigns as well. You ran the caucuses here in 1996. You've seen and done it all, but we've never seen anything like this.

Do you think Kaufmann is right? Like, is there actually -- I mean, you and I were talking last night about where turnout was going to be. Where do you think it's going to land and what's it going to mean? [07:35:04]

DAVID KOCHEL, IOWA REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST, FORMER SENIOR STRATEGIST, JEB BUSH CAMPAIGN, CO-HOST, "HIGHBALL POLITICS PODCAST", FORMER STRATEGIST FOR MITT ROMNEY: I had set the over-under at about 150,000 a week ago. That's a little less than we had in 2016. I don't think we're going to get there. I don't see a way to do it.

It's cold. It's not just cold though. We talked about this last week. This is painful. This is dangerous. In rural counties where they don't get plowed as quickly, you got in the ditch and your car is not coming out. Your battery might be dead. This is really different.

So I think we'll see something a little bit lower than we saw before, which might produce a surprise, which is kind of what Iowa is famous for anyway. So we'll see if that works.

HUNT: I know. I keep saying that there's not so much suspense with Trump. But I have to say it does feel like well, who knows? Maybe we are in for something of a surprise.

Let's walk through what each of these candidates really has to do here in Iowa. Let's start with Trump. I mean, what do you see as kind of the line he needs to hit and how will it play on either side of the line?

KOCHEL: Yeah. Look, he's been -- I think he's at 51 percent in the RealClearPolitics average in Iowa. That kind of sets the bar for him. And I think 50 percent is a little bit of an interesting psychological line. If he falls under 50 -- he was at 49 in the Register poll on Saturday night. If he hits under 50 that means over half of Iowa caucusgoers want something else. That's a real thing.

HUNT: Interesting when you think about it.

KOCHEL: That's a -- that's a -- that's a pretty important number. So if he comes in under that I think he walks out of here trying to have to explain that because he's had a huge lead all along.

I think Nikki Haley actually kind of has the easiest story to tell out of Iowa. She didn't do the 99-county tour. She didn't have a $120 million super PAC. She's really grown this thing from almost nothing and kind of come out of nowhere. Now the poll -- the Register poll has her kind of in second but her and DeSantis are really fighting for second place.

But she's strong in New Hampshire already. She's strong in South Carolina already.

I think DeSantis is the one who really needs a surprise here. And by surprise, I mean, he's got to -- there's got to be a delta between he and Haley so that he can come out of here with a little bit of energy. And I think the pressure is really on because of the investment in time and money they've made here and the endorsements that he has here. They've been talking about their organization, which is excellent. HUNT: Yeah.

KOCHEL: So we'll see. If he can -- if he can really push through and overperform where he's at in the polls right now that will help him. But I think that's kind of where it stands today.

HUNT: So, for DeSantis' organization -- I mean, how do you think the cold is going to affect him as it -- as compared to how it might affect, say, Donald Trump's turnout game? Because there -- I mean, DeSantis is really running a very traditional --

KOCHEL: Yeah.

HUNT: -- conservative, evangelical church-based --

KOCHEL: Um-hum.

HUNT: -- campaign. Those people are used to going to caucuses, right?

KOCHEL: Um-hum.

HUNT: And I know you've told me that the greatest predictor of whether someone goes to caucus is whether they've done it before.

KOCHEL: Yeah.

HUNT: So what's different between DeSantis and Trump here?

KOCHEL: Well, Trump's really building this organization for the first time. He didn't have it in 2016. He definitely has it this time.

What he -- what they're doing is pretty simple. They're actually calling caucus chairmen -- their own caucus captains, trying to line up SUVs and 4x4s that they can get people to the polls, if needed, because there are going to be some people who are going to struggle to get out on their own. People maybe over 70-75. They don't -- it's dark at 7:00 p.m. here now so they don't want to be out driving in this if they can help it. So they're actually doing that sort of thing.

DeSantis, definitely more traditional. They've got I.D. (PH) and supporters that they are calling today -- verify, reverify, triple- check. Make sure everybody's getting there. They're probably moving up the time when they want them to be at the caucus because there will be some caucuses that are big and have long lines.

You've got to be at -- you know, you've got to be ready to go at 7:00. It's not like -- this is a really different thing than a regular primary or general election. People have got to be there on time, in line, or they're not going to be able to vote.

So all these campaigns are pushing every way they can -- volunteer phone calls. They will probably have people on the doors today even, which is -- I mean, think about that. You don't want to be out walking around in this weather. It's hard.

HUNT: I've got to tell you. It's like, I walked from a car down the sidewalk into a hotel and I could feel my nose. That was the only part of me that was outside.

KOCHEL: Yeah.

HUNT: So that's where we are.

All right, David Kochel, it's always wonderful to have you. I'll take any excuse to talk to you. This caucus is the best one, though.

KOCHEL: Thank you.

HUNT: All right, back to you, Phil.

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN ANCHOR: Thank you, Kasie.

The candidates have spent some serious cash on campaign ads in the weeks leading up to caucuses. Ahead, we're going to see if this ad blitz could make a difference in the race.

This is CNN's special live caucus coverage.

(COMMERCIAL)

[07:43:43]

POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: If there is one thing Iowans can look forward to -- they have a lot to look forward to, especially today, regardless of who wins tonight -- it is a break from the non-stop political ads there. Republican candidates and their allies have bombarded Iowa residents with more than $123 million in advertising just this election cycle.

MATTINGLY: Now, according to data from Adimpact and The Washington Post, Haley's ad spending -- Nikki Haley's ad spending surged in December with more than $3 million spent a week, followed by Ron DeSantis with just over $2 million, and Trump, the frontrunner, with just over $1 million.

So what have those ads actually looked like?

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PRO-NIKKI HALEY PAC "SFA FUND" AD: Make America Great Again.

RON DESANTIS CAMPAIGN AD: Here's what Wall Street-funded Nikki Haley just said in New Hampshire.

NIKKI HALEY, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You know Iowa starts it. You know that you correct it.

RON DESANTIS CAMPAIGN AD: Haley disparages the caucuses and insults Iowa.

DONALD TRUMP CAMPAIGN AD: Americans were promised a secure retirement. Nikki Haley's plan ends that.

(END VIDEO CLIP) HARLOW: Joining us now, Kristen Soltis Anderson, Scott Jennings, and Natasha Alford. Also, Kate Bedingfield. Welcome, everyone.

Not the nicest of ads but we will see. They will be over soon for the most part.

[07:45:00]

You had an interesting piece talking about the not inevitable going to happen -- maybe not likely -- but the sort of beyond Trump majority. Could you speak to that?

KRISTEN SOLTIS ANDERSON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST AND POLLSTER: Yeah. So I really don't think that there is a majority of Republicans who, at this point, seem eager to turn the page from Trump, but there is a majority that says look, I want to keep my eye on the future. Donald Trump's not going to be around forever.

And so, right now, they I think entered this campaign season looking to see are there other candidates out there who can deliver the things I liked about Donald Trump but not the stuff I didn't like. And unfortunately, for both Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, they've made it here close to the finish line in Iowa of at least staying in the race but haven't yet demonstrated that they are those people. And frankly, I think it's because they've spent so much time attacking each other.

As you saw in those ads just there, there hasn't really been an opportunity for voters in Iowa or New Hampshire to say ah, here's why Nikki Haley and not Trump. Here is why.

HARLOW: He didn't give something to vote for.

ANDERSON: Well, I think Haley has tried, I think especially here in the last couple of weeks. Her really strong performance is part of why she's had that momentum.

But giving them something to vote for that is distinct in some way from Donald Trump and making that contrast clear, I think that's where these candidates really didn't quite do what they needed to do and is why they're likely to get second and third tonight in Iowa.

NATASHA ALFORD, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST, HOST THE THEGRIO WEEKLY: And maybe that explains the enthusiasm gap that we're seeing when we look at the polls about Nikki Haley. It reminds me of Joe Biden, right? This idea that people are coming out to make a statement about Trump as opposed to having some sort of belief in this radical vision. She doesn't propose that.

She continues to hit home this idea of moving past Republican chaos, right? That's that phrase that she brings up again and again. But what does Nikki Haley --

HARLOW: And her surrogate just brought up twice in our last --

ALFORD: Yeah. What does she stand for? KATE BEDINGFIELD, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, FORMER WHITE HOUSE COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: But it's interesting to me that none of them really made a concerted effort to go in on the electability argument. I mean, Haley kind of has in the final push here. She lifts up head- to-head polls with her and Joe Biden and says I would beat Joe Biden by 17 points.

But, you know, the Republican candidates didn't really band together at the beginning of this primary and make a concerted argument to Republican voters that Donald Trump is not a good general election candidate. That he is weak. That he is vulnerable for a lot of reasons, including all of the 91 indictments against him.

And so, they sort of signaled to Republican voters well, I'm sort of a Trump light. I'm not really taking him on. They never really found their footing. And that would have been a way -- I think that would have been a way to do it.

SCOTT JENNINGS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, FORMER SPECIAL ASSISTANT TO PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: Well, I think at the beginning you heard some people saying you may love Trump but he's going to lose. But that argument -- that strategic voting argument has been obliterated by all the polls showing him beating Biden not just nationally but in the swing states.

A few months ago when that Washington Post survey came out showing Trump up by, what, 10 points -- and then really, since that moment, Biden's been in trouble. Trump's been in good enough shape to win a national election.

And so, how do you go to the Republicans who say well, we really want Trump -- we like Trump more than anyone else -- and say well, he's destined to lose? And they're looking at evidence saying I'm not sure that's true.

ANDERSON: Well, shortly after last year's midterm elections I think there was an opportunity --

JENNINGS: Yeah.

ANDERSON: -- to say as a party we have got to turn the page or we are going to jeopardize being able to win things.

MATTINGLY: But who was saying that?

ANDERSON: But you're right. That's --

JENNINGS: But who did it? Republicans were all saying that -- maybe quietly, but they were all saying that back then.

BEDINGFIELD? Quietly?

MATTINGLY: No, no -- I know. But -- and then -- but this is what --

JENNINGS: To me, if DeSantis doesn't get the comeback kid here out of Iowa we're going to look at that November -- ANDERSON: Yeah.

JENNINGS: -- to May period when he actually got into the race and say that was the moment when the page was begging to be turned. DeSantis hesitated. He went back to Florida. And what did Trump -- Trump did what he does best. He re-coagulated himself --

ALFORD: Um-hum.

HARLOW: Re-coagulated?

JENNINGS: -- and by the time -- I know.

MATTINGLY: Shoot, that's a hundred-dollar word.

HARLOW: On a Monday morning.

JENNINGS: Phil, Phil --

MATTINGLY: He's bringing --

JENNINGS: -- he pulled himself together. Let me just --

MATTINGLY: Thank you for that. I was going to say wow, you're bringing the A-game. Appreciate the translation.

To that point, though -- and I think this is what's interesting. You watch the millions of dollars in ads that are being spent. Is anything going to move the needle has been the thing we've been asking I feel like for months? This is the day we actually get to test the proposition.

ALFORD: Yes.

MATTINGLY: Do you see something happening tonight that everybody goes OK, wait a minute -- maybe we were counting the chickens a little bit too early?

ALFORD: Well, I actually want to go back to what Scott was saying about --

MATTINGLY: Re-coagulation.

ALFORD: -- this re-coagulation.

MATTINGLY: Yes.

ALFORD: I have this, like, image of a villain in a superhero movie, like, coming back, right?

JENNINGS: The "Terminator 2." The liquid --

MATTINGLY: This is --

JENNINGS: -- Terminator and he's like, oh, we just -- we just melted him. It's fine. MATTINGLY: Let's just follow this thread. Let's just keep going.

ALFORD: But what Donald Trump has done has effectively taken the momentum that we've seen with Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis and used it against them, right? Define Nikki Haley as a Wall Street-funded candidate who is getting a bunch of Democrats to come out and actually support her. She's not a true Republican.

Define Ron DeSantis as someone who is taking away Kim Reynolds, who was a loyal Trump supporter, right, and make this about loyalty and not actually about Ron DeSantis being about anything.

So I just think that hesitation allowed Donald Trump --

JENNINGS: Yeah.

ALFORD: -- to actually get a few more really effective hits that will likely support his winning tonight.

[07:50:00]

HARLOW: Kristen, I asked this to one of -- an Iowa state lawmaker, Austin Harris, who is a surrogate for Nikki Haley, a couple of minutes ago and didn't really get a number from him. I said what's a win for Nikki Haley tonight? You know numbers inside and out as a pollster. What is an actual win for Nikki Haley tonight, and then actual survive -- I can survive this for Ron DeSantis?

ANDERSON: I think it --

HARLOW: A number.

ANDERSON: I would say she has to be a fair distance apart from Ron DeSantis. I would say at least maybe five points ahead of him for it to be a really big, strong statement. But ultimately, I think some of this is really academic. I'm also not going to give you a firm answer.

HARLOW: But Ann Selzer said -- you know, she's on -- who did The Des Moines Register poll -- said Haley's on shaky ground.

ANDERSON: Right, and part of that is because her supporters are just less enthusiastic.

HARLOW: (INAUDIBLE).

ANDERSON: And she depends much more on the sorts of Democrats and Independents who you might not see in this big of a number in a Republican primary.

I think what she needs is to prove that she's still got life in her as they had into New Hampshire. It's kind of odd that we're saying something -- for Donald Trump, he's probably going to win, but what would a loss look like, even though he's going to win. At a certain point this is all academic.

Voters are going to say well, Donald Trump won and he won by double- digits, so is this over, right? And they have just got to be able to make the message clear -- no, this isn't over.

MATTINGLY: And you build on -- as somebody who was in the room in Iowa -- I mean, besides unintentionally short-circuiting the entire reporting process from the Iowa Democratic Party -- but expectations I think were something you guys had to have been weighing back then.

If you're the Trump campaign and you're thinking 50 plus one or beat Dole in '88's margin -- like, what are you thinking right now? How are you trying to --

BEDINGFIELD: Yeah.

MATTINGLY: -- spin this to some degree?

BEDINGFIELD: Well, you declare victory and move forward, right? I mean, you -- I think as soon as this race is called for him tonight you send your people. You say we went wire-to-wire here. Obviously, there's this 50 percent threshold. If he's over 50 percent he can fully declare that the vast -- that the majority of Iowa voters -- Republican voters voted for him.

But it's also thinking about what are the next two or three steps. Where do you send your surrogates? Where do you send your candidate? Does he go to New Hampshire or does he just go on to South Carolina where the expectation is that he's going to -- that he's going to run a much stronger race?

MATTINGLY: Right.

BEDINGFIELD: And does he just say I'm already looking to the general election? Like, I won this thing and I'm moving forward. I have the ability.

MATTINGLY: Would you skip New Hampshire if you were him?

BEDINGFIELD: I would not because I think that Nikki Haley has a little momentum and I think that the risk that she outperforms there is a -- is a potential threat to him. So if I were him I would not skip New Hampshire but I would essentially say hey, I won this thing and now I'm looking to the general election.

JENNINGS: He has two wins and this thing is over.

MATTINGLY: (INAUDIBLE).

JENNINGS: I mean, he blows it out in Iowa and even a short win in New Hampshire, he's got a real good public argument to say Republicans have spoken. Let's all get behind -- and by the way, there will be a lot of people in the party from all corners of the party saying yep, I think Donald Trump is right. Let's wrap this up.

MATTINGLY: A re-coagulation if you will.

HARLOW: I'm going to get Phil a t-shirt.

MATTINGLY: That says -- HARLOW: Thank you all.

MATTINGLY: Thanks, guys, very much.

And next hour, Gov. Ron DeSantis joins CNN THIS MORNING just hours before tonight's high-stakes caucuses.

HARLOW: Also, heartbreak at the U.S.-Mexico border. Three migrants, two of them children, drown in the Rio Grande just days after Texas blocked Border Patrol agents from accessing that area. We will take you live for reporting in Eagle Pass, Texas.

(COMMERCIAL)

[07:57:38]

MATTINGLY: A CNN exclusive this morning. The White House is demanding that Texas give U.S. Border Patrol agents immediate access to the area along the southern border where three migrants -- a woman and two children -- drowned this weekend trying to cross the Rio Grande. The deaths come just days after the state seized control of the Shelby Public Park in Eagle Pass, fencing it off and blocking federal agents from the 50-acre area.

HARLOW: So, Texas Democratic Congressman Henry Cuellar wrote this in a post. Quote, "Texas Military Department soldiers state they would not grant access to migrants even in the event of an emergency, and they would send a soldier to investigate instead."

Our Rosa Flores is covering all of this and has the reporting from Eagle Pass, Texas. A complete tragedy, right? Three migrants, two of them children, dead.

What more do we know about how the agents were barred from this area, and also what actions the Biden administration is taking?

ROSA FLORES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, let me take you through this, Poppy, because we have video of what this takeover looks like.

So take a look at this video. This is Shelby Park. This is the park that Texas took custody of last week. And you'll see that there is fencing and gates. And there are members of the Texas Military Department determining who goes in and who goes out.

And look, this is an escalation. This is a new high when it comes to the feud between Texas and the Biden administration over border security. We've covered the legal battles. They are ongoing. The border buoys, the razor wire -- they're just downriver where -- from where I'm standing. There's the immigration law SB4.

Well, now it's turned tragic. It has turned deadly. A migrant mother and her two children died over the weekend -- they drowned. And DHS says that Border Patrol asked Texas Military Department access during that distress call and that they were not provided access. And the Texas Military Department says that is completely inaccurate.

And if your brain is spinning you're not alone. Here's how you need to look at this.

So, the state of Texas, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, and the Biden administration don't see eye-to-eye when it comes to border security and border security tactics. And Texas has taken this extraordinary step of blocking a federal law enforcement agency from its jurisdiction and not allowing border patrol to enter.

Now, the Biden administration has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene. Texas replied to the high court saying that it is going to work to get access to border patrol to ramp out that park that I just showed you. But this shows the ramping.