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CNN This Morning
Today: Trump & Haley Go Head-To-Head In New Hampshire; Israeli "Initiative" To Offer Hamas 2-Month Ceasefire For All Hostages. Aired 5-5:30a ET
Aired January 23, 2024 - 05:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[05:00:43]
POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, everyone. So glad you're with us.
The nation's first presidential primary, it is here. We are live at the Chez Vachon diner in Manchester, New Hampshire.
Phil Mattingly in New York, here with our friend Kasie Hunt as well.
And today, it is likely now or never for Republicans trying to topple Donald Trump as Nikki Haley works to pull off a strong finish in this state -- her last best chance to stop a Trump-Biden rematch in November. We are now just one hour away from the first big round of polls opening.
The first ballots have already been cast just after midnight in the tiny but important town of Dixville Notch. Haley won all six votes there.
In her final sprint across the state, Nikki Haley has been pushing back on the naysayers.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NIKKI HALEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: America doesn't do coronations. We believe in choices. We believe in democracy, and we believe in freedom.
Let's show the country what we can do.
(ENDVIDEO CLIP)
PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN ANCHOR: In the final hours before the primary and the voters actually had to the polls, Trump has been raking in endorsements from Republicans on Capitol Hill, both the House and Senate GOP campaign chairs have called for the party to unite behind Trump, the same day he delivered the ultimate show of force by bringing his former opponents up on stage for his last rally before voters vote.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. TIM SCOTT (R-SC): If you want four more years of Donald Trump, let me hear you scream!
(CHEERS)
If you want the race to be over tomorrow, let me hear you scream!
(CHEERS)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATTINGLY: Now, during that rally, Trump painted Nikki Haley as an establishment candidate who would lose head-to-head against President Biden.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, FORMER PRESIDENT: So important, most important vote you're ever going to take or make. You can declare that the Republican Party is never going to go back to those days of weak establishment candidates. So if you want a losing candidate who puts America last, vote for Nikki Haley.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARLOW: Let's start with our Omar Jimenez. He joins us live at a polling location.
So, first, six votes already cast, but the majority start to come in in less than an hour. What are you hearing this morning?
OMAR JIMENEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, we've just been hearing from poll workers here setting up this particular spot opens in just about an hour here, 06:00 a.m. Eastern. The day is finally here.
Well -- my team and wed been here 12 of the last 14 days talking to voters, rain, shine, and a lot of snow at this going. And people are ready to cast their ballots and let their voices be heard. As some have joked, they are ready for the ads and some of the mailers to stop, which, of course, they've been getting a lot of over the past months really at this point.
For Nikki Haley, the question is, she got her two-person race, but has she done enough to actually challenge the former president here? Well, today, voters get to decide.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JIMENEZ (voice-over): The New Hampshire primary is officially underway, with one lone Republican rival remaining against Donald Trump.
HALEY: Well, we've got a lot on the line here.
JIMENEZ: Nikki Haley is making her final pitch to New Hampshire voters, hoping to stop Trump's march to the Republican nomination.
AUDIENCE MEMBER: Nikki Haley! HALEY: Yes
AUDIENCE MEMBER: Will you marry me?
HALEY: Are you going to vote for me?
AUDIENCE MEMBER: I'm going to vote for Trump.
HALEY: Get out of here.
JIMENEZ: Overnight, the first primary ballots were cast in Dixville Notch, providing a very early glimmer of hope for Haley who picked up all six votes in this small New Hampshire town. Trump for his part, is trying to rally and consolidate Republican support, holding his final campaign rally in the Granite State, flanked by former Republican candidates offering their endorsement, including former Republican candidate and Senator Tim Scott, who just announced his engagement
TRUMP: The biggest story out there. He's engaged to be married. We never thought this was going to happen. What's going on?
JIMENEZ: Trump did target Haley during his rally.
TRUMP: The people behind Nikki Haley are pro-amnesty, pro-China, pro- open borders, pro-war, pro-deep state, and pro-Biden.
[05:05:07]
JIMENEZ: And Haley is trying to make the case that both Trump and Biden are too old to effectively serve four more years.
HALEY: This really is an option. Do you want more of the same --
AUDIENCE: No!
HALEY: -- or do you want to go forward?
JIMENEZ: And saying she feels Trump has mentally declined.
HALEY: The more you age, it just does -- your -- you have declined.
JIMENEZ: The Democrats are also heading to the polls today. Congressman Dean Phillips has launched long-shot campaign against President Biden. Phillips is hoping the fact Biden won't appear on the ballot and is relying on write in support could help his chances.
REP. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-MN), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Because the sad truth is, I respect the man, but Joe Biden is not able to beat Donald Trump in the next election.
JIMENEZ: The New Hampshire attorney general is also investigating a fake robocall that appears to use an AI voice resembling Biden's, urging voters to stay home.
FAKE JOE BIDEN ROBOCALL: It's important that you save your vote for the November election. Voting this Tuesday only enables the Republicans in their quest to elect Donald Trump again.
JIMENEZ: It's unclear who's behind the call. Biden's campaign responded to it, writing spreading disinformation to suppress voting and deliberately undermine free and fair elections will not stand.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
JIMENEZ: And that in state-level investigation is ongoing. This polling site, as I mentioned here in Manchester, opens up and about an hour. We're going to start to see again, people here in New Hampshire casting their votes. I'm hoping to talk to a lot of them because I'm always curious when exactly it was that they made up their mind. People in the past that I've talked to sometimes it make up their minds literally while waiting in line.
So excited for that a little bit --
HARLOW: Yeah.
JIMENEZ: -- later this morning. But for now, were just getting ready.
HARLOW: It's one of the things that makes New Hampshire so exciting, not only being the first, but also the fact that there are a lot of undeclareds. We talked to one yesterday, who is going to decide between breakfast yesterday and breakfast this morning.
Omar, thank you very much.
Phil?
MATTINGLY: Well, it is a critical day for anti-Trump Republicans, Poppy, not just in New Hampshire, but really across the country as Nikki Haley faces what could be her last real chance to pull off a major upset and reset a race right now feels like a forgone conclusion.
So let's go out and take a look at what the Haley campaign has been keying on in the Granite State and they have been keying on the Granite State. Now, you look at the map right now, only one township is filled in.
Poppy was talking about earlier in the show, Dixville Notch. Nikki Haley getting six votes, 100 percent of the vote, how indicative of is this about what's going to happen over the course of the next 24 hours? It's not at all. I'm not taking anything away from the sixth voters who voted here, but they split back in 2016 between John Kasich and Donald Trump. You look at the 2020 presidential race, all five went for Joe Biden.
This is not going to tell you what's going to happen in the state. Now, what is going to tell you what's going to happen in the state, you could actually look back, pull back into last week, Iowa, and that dominant performance by Donald Trump in the state, Nikki Haley winning only one of the 99 counties, and that one county only winning it by one vote. That was a county she was supposed to run up big numbers with. The reason why, her strength is always considered suburban voters.
More moderate voters, the higher income voters, that will Trump won every county. But one that falls into that category for CNN.
However, Iowa was never viewed as a real strong suit for Nikki Haley. It's a more conservative bent ideologically, particularly social issues with a major burst of evangelical votes that don't usually align with somebody like Nikki Haley, and that, of course, is where New Hampshire comes in. When you look at this state right now, put away Dixville Notch, just for the moment again, no offense to my friends from Dixville Notch, this is a state that has higher capacity when it comes to educated voters, higher income voters and immediate income level. And more than that, it has moderate voters.
If you take a look at whether CNN polling has been over the course of the last couple of weeks, when it comes to ideology in New Hampshire, Donald Trump on moderate voters only gets 22 percent. Nikki Haley, 71 percent, completely inverts when it comes to conservative voters. They think the Haley campaign or more moderate voters in the state, that means it's an opportunity.
What about education levels? That's also a key point here because they believe in the Haley campaign, the higher educated voters would trend towards Nikki Haley. That at least based on the polling, appears to be borne out, Donald Trump dominating know individuals with no college degree, 55 percent. Nikki Haley at 50 percent, those with a college degree, there are significantly more college-educated voters in the state of New Hampshire than there are an Iowa by about 16 or 17 percent.
So that's should say that Nikki Haley has a pathway here. The real question becomes whether or not this number breaks big her way.
As Poppy was noting, the undeclared voters in this race are critical. Whether or not undeclared voters who can go in and vote whichever side they want, decided to lean heavily towards Nikki Haley, particularly in Democratic strongholds -- remember Joe Biden won this state handily in 2020. If they start to move heavy towards Nikki Haley, then perhaps you have a race.
[05:10:03]
Right now though, the polling hasn't picked that up -- Poppy and Kasie.
HARLOW: Yeah, Phil, thank you.
What everyone's going to hear from the folks, Phil and I talked to yesterday who are in that category of undeclared see what they do.
Kasie, to you, she wanted this. Nikki Haley wanted this. She wanted a two person race. She got a two-person race. Now, what?
KASIE HUNT, CNN ANCHOR: Well, this isn't --
HARLOW: Tell us. HUNT: For a year, we have been waiting for this to happen, right? If you listen to any of the conversations, whether it was behind the scenes, over beers with Republican political consultants on television sets, the idea was, okay, we can get one person to stand up against Donald Trump in the Republican primary, then they'll be able to take him on and this is finally the test of that.
And at this hour, Poppy, it's not necessarily looking great for not just Nikki Haley, but all those forces out there and there are many who don't want to see Donald Trump win the Republican nomination. It just turns out there don't seem to be enough of them in the Republican Party maybe ever, definitely anymore.
But let's talk about -- can we talk about Dixville Notch for second? Because I love this place. But I think it also feels absolutely right. It's not necessarily predictive. But I do think it gives us a little encapsulation of what the story is in New Hampshire.
HARLOW: Yes.
HUNT: Which is if you look back to that 2016 primary, Phil showed us the Republicans, right? But there were also for Democrats in the town who voted for Bernie Sanders. Remember, undeclared voters can pull ballots in either primary. And this shows you that the Dixville Notch voters, they wanted to vote in the Republican primary.
We don't know. I don't know if there were Republicans or undeclared voters who cast those sections. I did not talk to all of six of them.
HARLOW: You didn't talk to all six of them at the night, Kasie?
HUNT: I would love -- it's very beautiful out there. Let me tell you, but it is a kind of a drive to the mountains.
HARLOW: Yeah.
HUNT: But if they were these undeclared voters and they pulled in the Republican primary, that's what Nikki Haley is counting on. If she surprises us tonight, if she puts in a stronger performance than we expected, its going to be because New Hampshire's voters who just absolutely relish their role in this process decided they wanted to play.
HARLOW: Governor Sununu, who very popular governor of the state endorsed Nikki Haley, told Anderson last night she doesn't have to win here. What's the path if she doesn't win here?
HUNT: Well, that -- that is a classic what we call setting of expectations here in politics. And I -- and they have moved, right? They've gone from the expectation being she could saying that, hey, she's got a win here to saying, well, I she doesn't have to win here.
The narrative right now is that she is on track to lose and Donald Trump almost has this locked up. So to the extent that anything can bust through that narrative, you know, it's not the worst place to be going into tonight if you're Nikki Haley campaign. I think the challenges that it only gets harder from here. So, if she
can't win in New Hampshire, they got to point to stay on the map and say this is where she can win.
HARLOW: Yeah. Okay.
Get back to very soon, Kasie. Thank you so much.
If Nikki Haley is successful in New Hampshire today, her campaign certainly gained a lot of momentum and critically time longevity, the results she needs when all the votes are counted next, and today marks a first for the Biden-Harris reelection campaign.
More from New Hampshire, live ahead. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[05:17:20]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV. CHRIS SUNUNU (R), NEW HAMPSHIRE: When it comes to Republicans, we're tired of losing. We're tired of losing. We lost in '18 and '20. Were going to get that big red wave in '22. Hey, Donald Trump, what the F is the red wave? Give me a break!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: Where the F is the red wave?
Welcome back. I'm Kasie Hunt in Manchester, New Hampshire, where the nation's first presidential primary is already underway.
The tiny northern community of Dixville Notch kicked off the primary. They always vote at midnight. They've been doing it for more than 60 years this time around. All six, get that, six of them, Dixville Notch voters cast their ballots for Nikki Haley.
Joining me here in Manchester, senior political reporter for "The Boston Globe", Jess Bidgood, and national political reporter for "Axios", Sophia Cai.
I think you guys both so much for joining us with the classic Chez Vachon diner. I think the first time I was here was back in 2012, 2011 when Mitt Romney I was campaigning. It's really a storied spot.
I mean, Jess, you've been up here since the Iowa caucus. Basically, obviously, "The Globe" is right nearby. As we kind of head into these final days, I mean, Chris Sununu is making the argument that so many anti-Trump Republicans at make all the time, that this guy is going to lose Republicans elections.
But it's the same time, he is just on a glide path here. What chance does Nikki Haley have to make a dent in that path today?
JESS BIDGOOD, SENIOR NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER, THE BOSTON GLOBE: Good morning. And thank you so much for having us at "The Boston Globe" and for doing this daily tracking poll. And this morning shows Trumps lead widening over Nikki Haley. He's got 60 percent support today to her 38 percent.
That tells me that DeSantis, Governor DeSantis of Florida dropping out earlier this week is helping Trump and making -- making it all the harder for Haley to try to slow his momentum. But it's just going to do it. It's going to happen here, New Hampshire is really her last best its chance to slow him down.
HUNT: Sophia, you have been on the road with Nikki Haley in particular. We've sort of documented how she's been going after Trump more aggressively in this week since the Iowa caucuses as she tries to take advantage of this last chance that she has. I know you've also been writing about the other ways in which she's focusing her candidacy in the final hours. What are you noticing?
SOPHIA CAI, NATIONAL POLITICS REPORTER, AXIOS: Yes. She's leaning into her gender. I mean, this is something that she hasn't necessarily overtly mentioned, but she's been saying the fellows and she's -- this is a phrase that she uses, right? The fellas, the fellas is what they do. You know, when they asked her about DeSantis, endorsement without giving her a heads-up, you asked her about the Tim Scott endorsement. She said the fellas are going to do what the fellas are going to do. The fellas don't know how to talk about abortion.
So it is one of the contrasts that she's making when not much else is working.
[05:20:04]
And so, for Republican voters who may not be voting purely because she's a woman. They noticed that she sounds different. She looks different. She has a different style and I think this is one of the ways that she's trying to say, hey, look, were ready for someone new.
HUNT: Is that about these independent voters that she needs?
CAI: Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. I mean, there's more than 300,000 of these in New Hampshire and those independent voters, they recognize, I think they -- and her campaign recognizes that if she were to win, it would be setting a real precedent here.
And so, the songs that she plays, right, they pass out. Nikki, woman for Nikki t-shirts. They've appointed chairs, Women for Nikki chairs, and all of these states. I mean, these are like this subtle ways. She's not doing the identity politics.
HUNT: Right.
CAI: In fact, she's straight up has, you know, that that dam, but, but it is really one of the ways that we've seen. That's been a little bit different in the past couple of days.
HUNT: Well, when we know that especially college educated suburban women are a massive weakness for Donald Trump. And it's one that she could -- she could try to -- is trying to -- it sounds like based on your reporting, trying to exploit.
The other thing, Jess, that I think we can really get at here and filled it a little bit of this at the magic wall, and just in terms of the numbers, but you can really feel the difference between the types of voters who go for Donald Trump versus the people that are going to back Nikki Haley when you go to their events -- I mean, covering Nikki Haley events to me feels like the old country club Republican Party. I mean, her first event after the Iowa caucuses was at Bretton Woods, which is this very kind of high-end resort, Dixville Notch no longer has such a high-end resort, but it used to, and there's some of that kind of culture is left there as well.
If you go to Trump rallies, they are these kind of like ruckus affairs. You can see his supporters are more blue collar. I mean, how has that played out for you covering the primary this past week?
BIDGOOD: It's a fascinating divide. You go to a Trump rally and he has fans, people are deeply, deeply devoted to him. They have been for years. They love him for some of his supporters.
It borders on almost religious, kind of the depth of their devotion to him. At a Haley event, you've got voters who are a little more circumspect. Oftentimes, they are thinking less about Haley, than about Trump and how to slow him down, how to stop him. And they've come to see Haley is kind of a vessel to do that.
In many cases, as we've talked about, their independent voters. They're not part of the base. Oftentimes, maybe they voted for Biden in 2020, perhaps they voted for Trump in 2016, and they're deciding to figure out how to move forward.
And I think were seeing Haley really tried to appeal to those voters by seeking to link Biden and Trump as, you know, figments of the past and depict herself as someone who is younger, someone who's got more energy and who wants to move the party and the country forward?
HUNT: Yeah. You -- you also had this headline, I will say as much as I love New Hampshire, I love being here. This tradition is great. You write: The New Hampshire primary is a circus, but no one is having any fun.
I think that's sort of encapsulates just how much of a role Donald Trump is on here in New Hampshire.
Jess Bidgood, Sophia Cai, thank you guys both very much for being up early with us.
Phil, back to you in New York.
MATTINGLY: I dispute the idea no one's having any fun. I had fun in my one day back out of the campaign trail. I know --
(CROSSTALK)
HUNT: We were having more fun when you were here, Phil.
MATTINGLY: Thank you. I appreciate that.
Well, just ahead, early framework for a possible deal that could lead to the longest cease-fire Gaza since the Israel-Hamas war started. We'll have more next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[05:27:46]
HUNT: Twenty-one Israeli soldiers were killed in combat in southern Gaza on Monday. The IDF says and Israeli tank was hit by a rocket propelled grenade and an explosion happened in two buildings, causing them to collapse. That makes Monday the single deadliest day for Israeli forces since the start of this war.
In a significant development, there is now a, quote, Israeli initiative to offer Hamas a two-month ceasefire in exchange for the release of all of the hostages still being held in Gaza.
This is according to an Israeli official familiar with this negotiation. They do call it far from being a proposal, I should caution. Israel's military operations in Gaza have already killed more than 25,000 people there, according to the Hamas-controlled health ministry, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also facing increased pressure at home and around the world to secure the release of those Israeli hostages, and to ease the suffering of the civilians in Gaza.
Netanyahu has created controversy also after doubling down on comments he made that Israel must maintain security control of the Palestinian territories. He posted on X over the weekend, quote, I will not compromise on full Israeli security control over all the territory west of the Jordan and this is contrary to a Palestinian state.
Let's bring in from Jerusalem, former Israeli hostage negotiator and the Middle East director of the International Communities Organization, Gershon Baskin.
Thank you for being with me.
I was very surprised to read this reporting that came first from Barak Ravid at "Axios" and then I just told you CNN's reporting on this.
Do you -- do you think that this could actually happen? Israel would agree to a two month pause in fighting to bring all of the hostages that are being held, about 130 of them home? Because this would also include an unset number of Palestinian prisoners to be released from Israel.
GERSHON BASKIN, MIDDLE EAST DIRECTOR, INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITIES ORGANIZATION: Right. I think Israel would jump at the opportunity if this was really accepted by Hamas, because the Hamas demand is quite a lot more. Hamas is demanding a full end the war and a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and an all for all exchange, meaning all Palestinian prisoners in Israel an exchange for all the hostages.
That is something that Israel is not willing to do. And that's why Israel finally took an initiative and put an alternative on the table.
