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CNN This Morning
New CNN Poll Finds Close Races in Battleground States; Jim McCain Criticizes Trump for Arlington Incident, Backs Harris. Aired 6- 6:30a ET
Aired September 04, 2024 - 06:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KASIE HUNT, CNN ANCHOR: It's Wednesday, September 4. Right now on CNN THIS MORNING.
[06:00:42]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT, 2024 PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: It looks close, but I think in the end, it's not going to be a close election.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: With just nine weeks left until election day, brand-new CNN polling, out this morning, shows just how tight the race is across key must-win states.
Plus, this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, 2024 PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Put bluntly, Michigan, y'all know how to win.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: Michigan, a state that went red in '16 and blue in 2020, is still a toss-up this time around. Michigan Congresswoman Haley Stevens joins us live.
And this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JIM MCCAIN, SON OF SEN. JOHN MCCAIN: The people who are buried there don't have an opinion.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: The youngest son of Senator John McCain calling out Donald Trump. Why he says Trump's photo-op in Arlington was a, quote, "violation."
Plus, later.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: As long as there are hostages there, alive or dead, we're going to continue and fight. They deserve it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: Outrage in the streets as nationwide protests in Israel enter their fourth day. The mounting pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
All right, 6 a.m. here in Washington. A live look at New York City. Look at that beautiful sunrise on this Wednesday morning.
Good morning, everyone. I'm Kasie Hunt. It's wonderful to have you with us.
There are just 62 days until election day and six days until Kamala Harris and Donald Trump meet on the debate stage in Philadelphia.
And there are just two days -- yes, two -- until the first mail-in ballots will be sent out. Voters are going to be voting.
New CNN polling released just this morning shows a race that is truly neck-and-neck among likely voters in key battleground states. Harris holds a lead over Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan.
In Arizona, Trump holds the lead. In nearby Nevada, there's no clear leader.
And in what are arguably the two most critical states, well, it's a tie. There is no clear leader in Georgia, and it is dead even in the must-win state of Pennsylvania.
Around 15 percent of likely voters in these swing states say they are open to changing their mind about which candidate they will support.
On average, about two-thirds of likely voters in these states say they're extremely motivated to vote in November.
And here is where you see evidence that Harris's momentum is from getting the Democratic base voters excited. In Michigan, 72 percent of Democratic-aligned registered voters say they're extremely motivated to vote. That is up from 58 percent back in March.
This new CNN polling shows that the race to 270, the path to the White House runs straight through Georgia and Pennsylvania. If Trump holds North Carolina and wins both of those states, then he can lose Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. It wouldn't matter.
If Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania and she holds Wisconsin and Michigan, she only needs one more electoral vote to get over the top. She's looking at you, Omaha.
And the post-Labor Day sprint kicks into high gear. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are sounding two very different tones. Watch.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: I can't believe that there's going to be a close election. You know, we're leading in the polls, but -- and it looks close. But I think in the end, it's not going to be a close election.
HARRIS: We are the underdog in this race, and we have some hard work, then, ahead of us. But here's the beauty of us in this room. We like our work. Hard work is good work! Hard work is joyful work!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: All right. Joining us now, our panel's here: Elliot Williams, CNN legal analyst, former federal prosecutor; David Chalian, CNN political director; Kendra Barkoff, former press secretary to Joe Biden; and Matt Gorman, the former senior adviser to Tim Scott's presidential campaign.
Welcome to all of you. Thank you so much for being here.
David Chalian, very exciting to have swing-state battleground likely voter screen polls here with just 62 days out.
DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: That's how you know we're past Labor Day.
HUNT: You do, and there's no one better than you to help us understand what we've learned in this CNN data.
So honestly, take us through it. What -- what did you find most interesting? What should we be paying attention to here?
CHALIAN: Well, first, just that map that you put up of what these polls tell us about the paths to 270, I think, is one of the big takeaways here.
[06:05:00]
Because we have talked so much about that Blue Wall: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. And as you noted here, we're seeing Harris with slight leads in -- in Michigan and Wisconsin.
And so, instead of our focus for the next 62 days just being on those Blue Wall states, I really think you've got to go down the side of the East Coast, that Pennsylvania-Georgia. We'll see. We don't have North Carolina in this set of polling. If that is acting like Georgia, those states may be the ones that determine this.
Because as you noted, Donald Trump has to have every just hold everything. Just hold everything he had in 2020, flip Pennsylvania and Georgia, he's the president again.
And so, if Harris can win one of those states, that's a huge block that she puts up in the path for Donald Trump.
HUNT: Yes.
CHALIAN: And it sets her, potentially, on a course.
The other thing I would note: the motivation, obviously, is key. And that is what we've seen over the last -- since July 21 when Joe Biden stepped off the stage here, just the snap back into contention.
But it hasn't catapulted Harris into some commanding position in this race.
HUNT: Yes.
CHALIAN: What it has done is make this race extraordinarily competitive and tight again. And I just see -- you see that across this.
I would also note -- and I know you have these numbers. Put up the gender gap.
HUNT: Yes.
CHALIAN: I think this is fascinating. If you look at likely female voters across these states, you see enormous margins --
HUNT: There it is.
CHALIAN: -- for Harris. There. I mean, look. In Wisconsin, that's 17 --
HUNT: I mean 55 percent is a landslide in our post-Labor Day politics, right?
CHALIAN: So, she's plus 17. She's plus 16. She's plus 15. Those are --
HUNT: Chalian is doing math on live television, everybody.
CHALIAN: Sorry.
HUNT: No, this is like an awesome, awesome feat. We love it.
CHALIAN: Show the other side. Because among likely male voters, it's big advantage Trump. This is what we mean by the gap.
When we say gender gap, it's not just the advantage among female voters for a Democrat. It's the difference between the female voter advantage among Democrats and the male voter advantage among Republicans.
And you see what a big advantage that is for Trump among male voters. And that, to me, is going to be one of the definitional things when we are on election night looking at the results.
HUNT: Well, and Matt Gorman, that's one of the reasons why, you know, the Sunday "New York Times" had Trump courting the manosphere on its front page.
MATT GORMAN, FORMER SENIOR ADVISOR TO TIM SCOTT'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN: Yes.
HUNT: And why he is doing all these podcasts with these types of people, right? I mean, what do you -- when you look at these numbers David's digging into, what do you see?
GORMAN: A couple of things.
No. 1, you're absolutely right. Whoever wins their subgroup, like their gender, by more than the other one loses it, that's -- that's what the whole election is about. No. 1.
Pennsylvania, it's -- it's -- Pennsylvania is the ball game. There's no reasonable way you can really, in my opinion, win Pennsylvania and lose a state like Georgia or Nevada. They all kind of are linked, maybe not tangibly, but essentially.
Wisconsin and Michigan, they've always kind of gone together. That's less of a surprise. And look, I think Nevada is back in play, Arizona.
What was surprising to me obviously abortion. There's a referendum on the ballot. So, it tells me that there's not an automatic pro-abortion and pro-Harris linking together on that.
And then the last point is, look, it's 62 days away, I believe. That's July 4 to today. So, think back. It's -- it's not that far.
HUNT: Nothing has changed since July 4th.
GORMAN: Nothing -- yes, you know? So --
HUNT: Only the entire race.
GORMAN: -- think back where you were. Yes.
HUNT: David Chalian, can we talk about Georgia for a second? I'm interested to know what you think about what Matt said, in that maybe Georgia and Pennsylvania go together.
But this was -- this was something that, when I talk to Republicans, they say, well, this is kind of a tough hill for her to climb in Georgia. Do you agree with that? Our polling suggests maybe it's not quite there.
CHALIAN: Well, here's what I find fascinating about Georgia. Among white, non-college-educated voters -- that's obviously part of Donald Trump's base of voters -- he performs best in Georgia in that group. I mean, that I find really, really fascinating.
And in fact, even among white college-educated voters, Donald Trump is dominating in Georgia. And that is -- that is a demographic that, you know, Harris and Democrats over the last many years have been trying to -- to utilize to close the gap with Republicans in certain places.
That is why -- and again, the African-American vote in Georgia is going to be the ball game for Kamala Harris here, if she is going to be able to get over the hump here and repeat Joe Biden's performance. It's -- the white vote there looks different, no matter the education level than it does in a lot of these other states. It's just very -- it's a much more pro-Trump category.
And so, she has to significantly overperform with African-Americans there.
KENDRA BARKOFF, FORMER PRESS SECRETARY FOR JOE BIDEN: I was just going to say, as somebody who worked for Bob Casey in Pennsylvania and know the state decently, I would say it's -- I would be curious to know where the breakdown is, too.
Because you see the big cities, the Pittsburghs, the Philadelphias, and then everything in between is a very different place, right? The -- the people vote differently.
And so, seeing the campaign get in there, to go to Harrisburg, go to the smaller Lancaster, go to these smaller cities, shows me that they -- every vote is going to count for these campaigns. And they recognize that by going to these small towns, by going to these small cities in Pennsylvania.
[06:10:01]
HUNT: Yes. Well, I mean, you have to raise the question, I mean, as to -- I mean, they're going to be looking back at the vice-presidential pick, if they didn't pick Shapiro and it all came down to Pennsylvania, perhaps ruing that decision.
ELLIOT WILLIAMS, CNN LEGAL ANALYST: Possibly. However, to the point that was raised before, there's a -- there's a scenario in which Nebraska's one electoral vote becomes relevant, and that Tim Walz is actually just --
HUNT: Our Jeff Zeleny was just there. It's his home state.
WILLIAMS: And for --
HUNT: Looking at that blue dot.
WILLIAMS: And for folks -- the term used is blue dot. And for folks who aren't familiar, Nebraska has one electoral vote, right around --
HUNT: Because they divide their Electoral College votes --
WILLIAMS: Right.
HUNT: -- by congressional district.
WILLIAMS: As opposed to statewide.
HUNT: If you win in Omaha, then the whole state can be red, but that dot can be blue.
WILLIAMS: And there's a scenario -- and correct me if I'm getting the math wrong here, David, but if Kamala Harris wins, I believe it's Pennsylvania --
CHALIAN: Michigan and Wisconsin.
WILLIAMS: -- and Michigan, and Wisconsin, then that one vote in Nebraska becomes quite consequential.
So, all of these decisions around who one picks as vice president can come up to bite. To bite or reward a candidate pretty spectacularly.
But no -- but of course, if she is to lose Pennsylvania, then I think the finger-pointing, come November 6th, will be huge.
HUNT: David, what does our poll tell us -- I mean, obviously, we know it's a dead heat in Pennsylvania. And our poll has this, you know, nose-to-nose. The number is the exact same.
Where are you kind of paying most attention in terms of Pennsylvania, specifically?
CHALIAN: Well, you've got three counties in Pennsylvania that are so- called these boomerang -- these pivot boomerang counties. They -- they went for Obama twice. They went for Trump. They went for Biden. Right?
And so, looking at a place like Erie, Pennsylvania; or Northampton County.
HUNT: Yes.
CHALIAN: These are not contiguous counties.
HUNT: No, Erie being way out West and Northampton County being East in -- near Allentown.
CHALIAN: I think watching how those -- those counties behave is really important.
Now, obviously, as Kendra was saying, you -- if you're a Democrat, you win Pennsylvania, obviously, by running up the margins in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. And what James Carville called Alabama in the middle, that's where Trump --
HUNT: Pennsyltucky is what some people in Pennsylvania call it.
CHALIAN: That is -- that is where Trump needs to run up the score. That's just the way the math of the commonwealth works.
But I do think there are interesting pockets like these counties that may show us some movement this cycle. What is different about '24 than was about '20 or '16.
HUNT: We were also talking, right before we came on the air, about the issue breakdowns. And you found interesting how voters were focused.
CHALIAN: Yes. So, I don't think it'll surprise any of us that the economy is issue No. 1. It is across all six of these battleground states. That is where voters are. That is what is most important to their vote.
What is so interesting to me in these numbers is, when you look at it by each candidate's supporters, among Trump voters, Trump supporters in all six of these states according to these polls, the economy is overwhelmingly No. 1 issue. OK?
Among Harris voters, if you just look at Harris voters in all six states, the No. 1 issue for them, protecting democracy.
So obviously, we know Trump is advantage on the economy, advantage on immigration. It's a good thing if you're a candidate like Trump, that your advantage category is also the No. 1 issue. There's no doubt about that.
We've seen Harris make the economy battle more competitive than it was with Biden, but she has more work to do there.
But protecting democracy is the thing that is top of mind for her voters, even more so than abortion rights.
WILLIAMS: And what's fascinating about the economy and where it fits in -- where people think about is two huge bits of economy news coming up in the next couple of weeks.
No. 1, jobs report coming this Friday.
No. 2, the Fed with an interest rate decision on September -- I think it's 18th.
Now, in any normal year, those would be almost inconsequential bits of information. Do we have 150,000 or 158,000 jobs? But these are the kinds of things that people really focus on in an election year and could latch onto.
BARKOFF: And I was going to say, and this is why she's starting to roll out her plans, right?
She's in New Hampshire today. She's talking about her economic plans for small businesses and tax cuts --
HUNT: Why is she in New Hampshire today?
BARKOFF: I think --
HUNT: Your face answers the question entirely.
BARKOFF: You know, every electoral vote counts is what we're going to go with, right? We were just talking about Nebraska.
I think she's -- she's getting out there. She's on the trail. She's talking to everybody across the country, is what I -- is what I'd go with.
WILLIAMS: Relentlessly on message. That was good.
GORMAN: What I -- what I would say, it's like it's heavily white. Trump was probably likely to flip it if Biden was still in the race. So, you keep an eye.
You're also close to New York and Boston for fundraising, so you can get there very easily. So, she's probably putting a fundraiser into it, too.
HUNT: There you go. And plus, you know, who -- no time in New Hampshire is ever wasted. Don't get me wrong. I'm a huge fan of New Hampshire. I don't want to -- don't want to say that.
Anything else, David, from this poll that, you know, you've got to reach the bottom floor (ph), that you think is going to be something that this race could turn on?
CHALIAN: I would just note that, in terms of sort of candidate qualities that we tested, people overwhelmingly see Trump as having very clear policies that -- clear policies.
But that doesn't necessarily mean it's a positive, right?
[06:15:03]
So, in a majority of voters in all six states -- it ranges -- 50 percent up from across all six states think his policies are too extreme, rather than generally mainstream.
It's the flip for her. Her policies are seen by the plurality or majority of voters across all six states as generally mainstream, not too extreme.
HUNT: Very interesting.
All right. We've got a lot more to talk about here on CNN THIS MORNING.
It's been described as a 50-50 state. This election cycle is no different. Michigan Congresswoman Haley Stevens joins us live to talk about the importance of the Wolverine State.
Plus, a former aide to the New York governor charged with acting as an agent for the Chinese government.
And up next, the son of John McCain has some strong words for Donald Trump after Trump's visit to Arlington Cemetery.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MCCAIN: Go, show respect. Under -- I understand that he was invited. Show respect and leave. It doesn't need to be videoed.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
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[06:20:33]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) MCCAIN: It's a violation, because these rules are set in place. The people who are buried there don't have an opinion. Where -- the point of Arlington Cemetery is to go and show respect for the men and women who have given their lives for this country.
When you make it political, you take away the respect of the people who are there.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: That was 1st Lieutenant Jim McCain, the son of late Republican Senator John McCain.
He is referring to Donald Trump's visit last week to Arlington National Cemetery, where he laid a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, as many political leaders do.
But it was what Trump did afterward that ignited controversy. He visited soldiers' grave sites in the cemetery's Section 60 at the invitation of some of their family members.
And while he was there, Trump and his aides filmed a TikTok video, apparently in violation of a federal law that prohibits partisan political activity throughout the cemetery.
A cemetery employee attempted to prevent a member of Trump's group from filming. It led to a confrontation so significant that Arlington reported it to the military police.
The employee declined to press charges, reportedly fearing retaliation.
And in a statement following the incident, the Trump campaign claimed the employee was, quote, "clearly suffering from a mental health episode."
Trump spoke about that controversy again yesterday to FOX's Sean Hannity.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP (via phone): There was no conflict. There was no fight. There was no anything. And I get home that night, and I get, like, a call that from one of the people that is press -- "Sir, there's a story that your people got into a tremendous fight with people representing the cemetery."
Did you notice that the person representing now doesn't want to talk?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: All right. Our panel is back.
Matt Gorman, this is -- what do you make of what Donald Trump said there? I mean, because -- because what Jimmy McCain, Lieutenant McCain said there is that, look, these -- these people who are buried there, they can't speak for themselves? And obviously, there are also family members to consider of all of those people, as well.
GORMAN: Yes, I think this is something that Trump's team has been wanting to kind of pivot off the story for a week now. I think they recognize this isn't helping them, and it's something they just kind of want to move past. And the McCain story gave it life in a very limited way.
And look, John -- Jim McCain has every right to vote for whoever he wants. He's a private citizen. Don't begrudge him one bit.
I also think it's going to have a lot of outsized influence. I'm not going to pretend it has a lot of outsized influence or really affect any vote other than maybe his or someone in his family's.
But I think, if you're the Trump campaign, the sooner you can get off this story, the better it is for you.
HUNT: Yes. I mean, David Chalian, how do you think this actually impacts votes? This story?
CHALIAN: Well, I think that it feeds into an already existing narrative around Donald Trump that is problematic for him. So, I think -- so I think Matt is right, and I think that's why they would like to get off this story, because it -- it goes back to the comments that John Kelly has told everyone about the suckers and losers.
I know Trump denies ever saying those things.
And this notion of not comprehending what service is. And it fits into this larger frame that Harris and Democrats want to paint around Trump, that he's in this for himself and that she is in it for you.
And so, I just think, for all those reasons, it's -- this incident alone, I don't think would -- but it's a compounding thing that fits into this larger narrative that Democrats are building around Trump. And I think that becomes a problem.
HUNT: Well, and of course, John McCain -- the senator, John McCain, was part of this narrative. I mean, let's flash back to Iowa in 2015. I mean, this was kind of the original incident when people thought, oh, well, Donald Trump could never win the election, because he says things like this. Watch.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: He hit me.
FRANK LUNTZ, POLLSTER: He's a war hero.
TRUMP: He's not a war hero.
LUNTZ: He's a war hero.
TRUMP: He's a war hero --
LUNTZ: Five and a half years in a POW camp. TRUMP: He's a war hero because he was captured. I like people that weren't captured, OK? I hate to tell you.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
WILLIAMS: Yes. Pretty remarkable. John McCain also plays an important role in this story, as well, in that, in 2000, he himself, McCain, filmed footage that got used in a campaign ad for him at Arlington.
Now, the difference is the moment he discovered that it was a problem, the moment that it made it through the campaign, he immediately took that footage out and immediately apologized for it.
I think, No. 1, it's to the point that David was making. It's a character issue in terms of what we all know about former President Trump.
And I think what's striking here and, you know, your question to Matt was, well, how will this move people?
[06:25:03]
Well, who's surprised at this point, based on the litany of statements that the former president has made and conduct of his, about how he's regarded the military?
HUNT: Yes. There's one other thing I want to touch on, speaking of the military. And that is J.D. Vance, the vice-presidential nominee on the Republican side, spoke with Laura Ingraham on FOX.
And he raised questions about -- well, he said, you know, who -- nobody is going to want to serve in Kamala Harris's military. Let's -- let's watch what he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. J.D. VANCE (R-OH), VICE-PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: We really are on the brink of serious readiness issues, because nobody wants to put on a uniform and serve in Kamala Harris's military.
This is a person who wants the United States Army to be about gender inclusion, ridiculous diversity politics, instead of about serving your country and uniting together as Americans to serve on the same team and defend your nation.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: David Chalian, can I just ask for your reaction to him saying that? This is, of course, someone who wants to be the No. 2 to the commander in chief.
CHALIAN: And who served his country admirably.
My reaction is it's not Kamala Harris's military. It's the United States's military. And I think -- I just think that this is not a road that is going to serve them well. I understand he's saying it on FOX. I totally understand the politics behind that and speaking that way to the base.
Though J.D. Vance has not just been living in a FOX echo chamber in this campaign. He's been doing a ton of local interviews, doing a ton of communication more broadly to try and speak to the middle of the electorate.
And that -- that kind of comment, I just -- I think will not serve him well. When you politicize the military in that way, I just think a lot of voters respond to that, that that doesn't comport with their understanding of the U.S. military.
BARKOFF: I also think that he tries to make comments to see what's going to stick, right? We heard his comment about women and cats. I think he just throws things out there to be more Trumpian. And I just don't think it works for a whole host of reasons.
WILLIAMS: Well, and it goes back to what we were talking about the last block. Are they trying to win over the manosphere or the middle?
And yes, that kind of comment does resonate with some voters, but certainly, not the kinds of voters that they need to attract to win, if they actually intend to win.
HUNT: All right. David Chalian, so grateful to have you on the show.
CHALIAN: Thank you.
HUNT: Thank you so much for being here. See you soon, I hope.
The rest of the panel is going to be back in just a few minutes.
Still to come after the break, just days away from the next presidential debate. This time, Kamala Harris faces off against Donald Trump. How each is preparing.
Plus, the gala honoring January 6th suspects at Donald Trump's resort in New Jersey has been postponed indefinitely.
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