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New Polls Give Harris Slight Post-Debate Bump; Now: Israel and Hezbollah Trade Fire in Lebanon. Aired 6-6:30a ET

Aired September 23, 2024 - 06:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

KASIE HUNT, CNN ANCHOR: It's Monday, September 23. Right now on CNN THIS MORNING, a razor-thin race. New polling shows just how close things are in battleground states, now just six weeks out from November 5.

[05:59:56]

And --

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, 2024 PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Join me on the debate stage. Let's have another debate.

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HUNT: A debate dare. Kamala Harris accepting CNN's invitation for a rematch. Why Donald Trump claims it's too late.

And this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

(EXPLOSION)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNT: Extensive strikes. Israel warning civilians to leave parts of Lebanon as strikes ramp up.

And later --

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DONALD TRUMP (R), FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT, 2024 PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: We're going to win North Carolina.

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HUNT: In our battleground beat, is North Carolina really back in play? Democrats see a path to victory after a scandal rocks the governor's race.

All right, 6 a.m. here in New York City. A live look at the skyline on this Monday morning.

Good morning, everyone. I'm Kasie Hunt. It's wonderful to have you with us. We are now just 43 days until election day. It's just a little over six weeks, though, for some, the election already underway.

Early voting is now open across six states as of this morning. And with voters already casting ballots, new national polling over the weekend seems to be giving a slight edge to Kamala Harris. This is welcome news for her team.

A new post-debate NBC poll shows Harris with a five-point lead nationally among registered voters, 49-44.

Trump's 44 percent in this poll is the lowest level of support that the former president has seen in any poll that meets CNN standards since Harris entered the race in July.

But in the critical battleground states that will ultimately decide the election, Harris and Trump are in a virtual deadlock. The latest CBS/YouGov polls show Harris has a slight 2-point edge among likely voters following the debates. This is higher for Harris than it was last month, but it's still within the margin of error.

And it wouldn't be 2024 without yet another debate over debates. Over the weekend, Vice President Harris accepted a CNN invitation to debate Donald Trump in Atlanta on October 23. The setup would mirror the Trump-Biden debate from June.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HARRIS: Join me on the debate stage. Let's have another debate. There's more to talk about, and the voters of America deserve to hear the conversations that I think we should be having on substance, on issues on policies. What's your plan? What's my plan? A we should have another one before election day.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNT: While Harris pushes for a second showdown, Trump is telling his rally crowds, it's too late.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: The problem with another debate is that it's just too late. Voting has already started.

She's done one debate. I've done two. It's too late to do another. I'd love to in many ways, but it's too late. The voting is cast; the voters are out there immediately.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNT: Joining us now to discuss David Frum, staff writer for "The Atlantic"; Alex Thompson, CNN political analyst, national political reporter for Axios; Matt Gorman, former senior advisor for Tim Scott's presidential campaign; and Meghan Hays, the former director of message planning at the Biden White House.

Welcome to all of you. Thank you so much for being here.

Alex Thompson, let me start with you, because we also have some new polling out just this morning: "New York Times"/Siena College polling that shows Harris with a -- within the margin of error in North Carolina, 47-49. It shows a little bit of a wider spread in Georgia and in Arizona, the other Sun Belt states.

This polling news for her, which seems to be pretty positive, certainly got good reaction from the sources I've talked to you over the weekend.

Also, coupled with some reports in "The Washington Post," "The New York Times." Both did big stories about Donald Trump's relative lack of discipline and challenges inside his campaign here in the final weeks of the race.

What are you hearing about where things stand and how things are moving here with just six weeks to go?

ALEX THOMPSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes, I mean, these polls in Kamala Harris's world are really sort of keeping together this campaign, because this campaign, this is not the ideal way to run a presidential campaign, you know, entering just a few months ago.

And then, you know, none of these, a lot of these people are not people that she hired that are on this campaign. You know, it's sort of a combination of Biden people who she doesn't totally trust, her own people, plus all these Obama 2012 operatives.

And the fact is that, as long as the polls are good, that things are going to keep going well. If -- if the polling ever turns South, there are a lot of sort of subtle tensions within this world, and you could start seeing some subtle finger-pointing.

Now that being said, they're going to keep saying, we're the underdog. We're the underdog. We're the underdog. That is their -- their talking point.

The fact of the matter is that they are feeling pretty good about where they are, and that's part of the reason also why they are not doing interviews. Because they feel that they can still coast and let Donald Trump be the main character and possibly still win.

HUNT: David Frum, your view on that, because of course, as Harris's team, I mean, I take Alex's point about the ways, if in fact, they were to stop feeling ahead again. It's much easier to run a campaign when you feel like you're winning. It's smoother sailing.

We are starting to see the Trump campaign, obviously have a little bit more infighting, some potential tensions between the top, Susie Wiles, Chris LaCivita, Corey Lewandowsky, some reporting in "The Washington Post." What do you make of all of it?

DAVID FRUM, STAFF WRITER, "THE ATLANTIC": Can I start with your headline about the polls? We opened this segment by saying there are new polling this week in that show Kamala Harris, probably five percentage points ahead of Donald Trump in the polling, but it's closer in the battleground, states.

Now why don't we rephrase that? Kamala Harris is five points ahead in national polling, which translates to an advantage of probably seven or 8 million votes. But in the states where it's close, it's close.

Because the way you get to be a battleground state is it's the state where it's close. But this election is widening.

And it's very much what happened. I think this year, what happened in 1980 with Ronald Reagan, were between Reagan and Carter, it was close, close, close until it suddenly wasn't close in the last month-and-a- half of the election, when the leader pulled away.

What we're watching is the leader pulling away. And I think one of the questions I am contemplating is, when it's all said and done, will the Trump campaign say the problem was that the president was older, and he didn't -- got lazy. He didn't work very hard. And we need to find a harder working, younger Trump.

Or do they learn some real lessons here? About -- about what the country is like? And this kind of authoritarian, racist, corrupt style of politics doesn't work. It doesn't work in North Carolina. It doesn't work for Donald Trump. And it doesn't work when you give it a law degree and a better haircut in J.D. Vance.

HUNT: Matt Gorman, let me -- let me give it to you to respond to what David said there and also with the question, is he right that Harris is pulling away here? Is that what we're seeing?

MATT GORMAN, FORMER SENIOR ADVISOR FOR TIM SCOTT'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN: Yes. I mean, look at the -- the public polling nationally, she's -- she's going to have a consistent lead. I mean, I think what you've probably see is the popular vote. She might likely get.

Again, in the swing states, she can run the margin in the more Democratic states. Swing states that were tight before they're tight again.

It's a matter of kind of what it is. I think what we're seeing now with "The New York Times"/Siena polls, along with kind of some of the other polling, is this is going to really zone in on three states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina. And really, who can get two of those three states?

I mean, North Carolina kind of got the headlines the last couple of days because of Mark Robinson, understandably. But really, Pennsylvania is also going to be the biggest prize. You know, it's so hard to get where you need to go for 270 without it.

And then if you -- if you get it, you're adding to open up immeasurably. You only need Georgia along with Pennsylvania or, obviously, North Carolina. So, I think that is that. Look, I think this is -- you know, you're seeing a bit of a polling

bump for Harris. Absolutely. It's the -- it's the debate combined with also we haven't really ad a coherent message from the Trump campaign since the debate ended.

And then this is a byproduct of that.

HUNT: Meghan Hays, do you agree?

MEGHAN HAYS, FORMER DIRECTOR OF MESSAGE PLANNING, BIDEN WHITE HOUSE: Yes, I actually do really agree with Matt here. I also think that, you know, polls are a snapshot in time which we've all talked about. And I think that the polling -- I'm not sure that the polling is accurate and enough to kind of capture some of the things.

I think we always thought it was going to be close. It was going to be close when Joe Biden was running. It's now close when the vice president is running.

But I do think that some of these unfortunate incidents that are happening with the Republican Party in North Carolina and some of the other stories that are making news will impact turnout, which I do think will have an end -- will have a result in the end, in November.

And like Matt said, with Trump not being able to get a cohesive message, that is only in the Democrats' favor. So, where the vice president is running on vibes and being able to capture the enthusiasm, we are also being able to capitalize on some of Donald Trump's downfalls.

FRUM: I don't think we should say that Donald don't have a clear message. He's got a very clear message.

This country needs to go to war with Taylor Swift and stop Haitians from eating dogs.

HUNT: Well, I mean, and that was, you know, the subject of two of these big -- these big stories in "The Times" and "The Post" over the weekend, as you point out, that that is -- that is what they have that's breaking through at the moment. Your point -- your point is well taken.

All right. Coming up here on CNN THIS MORNING, a battle without limits. That is how Hezbollah describes the new phase of fighting with Israel underway as we speak.

Plus, returning to earth. A trio of astronauts undocking from the International Space Station and heading home. That's going to be one of the five things you have to see this morning.

Plus, will North Carolina flip blue for the first time in 16 years? We're going to ask the state's former Republican governor when Pat McCrory joins us live.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) TRUMP: Forty-five days from now, we're going to win North Carolina. We're going to defeat Kamala Harris. And we're going to make America great again. We're going to make it great again.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HUNT: Developing right now in Lebanon, a region on the brink. Live images showing smoke rising over Lebanon as Israel and Hezbollah engaged in their most intense fire since the war in Gaza began nearly a year ago, deepening fears of a wider war in the region.

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(EXPLOSIONS)

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HUNT: Today, Israel's military is urging Lebanese citizens to evacuate areas where the militant group operates immediately warning that they plan to engage in extensive, precise strikes.

Despite the U.S. urging Israel to de-escalate, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issuing this message over the weekend.

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[06:15:08]

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL (through translator): Over the past few days, we have struck Hezbollah with a series of blows it didn't imagine.

If Hezbollah didn't get the message, I assure you they will get the message we are determined to return our citizens in the North to their homes safely.

No country can tolerate incoming fire against the citizens, incoming fire against its cities. And we, too, the state of Israel won't tolerate it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUNT: Joining us now, CNN international diplomatic editor, Nic Robertson, who's live for us in Tel Aviv.

Nic, bring us the latest here. We've been looking all morning at a live picture of the horizon where you can see the smoke rising from Lebanon.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: A huge number of strikes. Extensive is how the IDF spokesman described it this morning. And when he described it earlier this morning, those early dawn strikes, he said there were about 150 of them into Lebanon over a wide geographical area, perhaps the widest area in Lebanon that we've seen in one series of strikes.

But late this morning, there's been a second wave of Israeli air force strikes into Lebanon. That's what we're looking at now.

And according to the IDF, that's over 300 strikes into Lebanon. And for the first time, as you were mentioning, the IDF is warning residents and villages along the Lebanese-Israeli border to evacuate and leave their homes if they believe that houses nearby have Hezbollah teams, Hezbollah missiles within them.

It's a very clear warning from the IDF. And if we look at what they've done and what they've said previously in other arenas, such as Gaza, when they say these -- when they make these warnings to civilians, the IDF very generally follows up with those strikes.

And they've released video today, showing a strike on a building they say had a Hezbollah cruise missile inside of it.

So, it really is becoming a much more widescale offensive today. Administrative information in Beirut has said that they've also received a warning to evacuate their building directly. They received a phone call.

They say that this is psychological scare tactics. But what we're witnessing in Lebanon at the moment is a number of people and a number of villages and towns are evacuating and moving away.

Quite how many people isn't clear at the moment, but at the White House, this of course, creating concern. And John Kirby, the national security adviser [SIC] there -- had this very clear statement for the Israeli leadership.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN KIRBY, SPOKESMAN, NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL: We don't believe that a military conflict -- and we're saying this directly to our Israeli counterparts, George -- we don't believe that escalating this military conflict is in their best interests.

It's certainly not going to be in the best interest of all those people that Prime Minister Netanyahu says he wants to be able to send back home.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTSON: But if you look at what's been happening over the past week now for the decision to Israel's cabinet decision, the government's decision here to make the Northern front, the border with Lebanon, part of their war aims, we've seen this steady escalation. And that escalation is continuing today all right.

HUNT: All right. Nic Robertson for us this morning. Nick, very grateful to have you. Thanks for being there for us.

All right. More to come after the break. A scandal throwing the North Carolina governor's race into turmoil. Will it cause issues for the top of the ticket, Donald Trump, in that battleground state?

Plus, a robot helping police with a standoff in Texas. It's one of the five things you need to see this morning.

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[06:23:11]

HUNT: All right, 22 minutes past the hour, five things you have to see this morning.

Police in Canada say they've now arrested a woman who ran over someone while stealing their car.

Police say the 18-year-old suspect was posing as an interested buyer when she got into the car and put it in reverse, running over the car's owner.

Police say more arrests in the case are pending. Hmm.

A police standoff in Texas with a dramatic ending. A robot fired tear gas at a suspect barricaded in a motel room. Then when he tried to flee, the robot ran over the suspect, pinning him until police could take him into custody.

Right now, NASA astronaut Tracy Dyson, two Russian cosmonauts are returning to earth. Their spacecraft separated from the International Space Station just two hours ago.

Dyson has been in space for 184 days.

Forty-niners wide receiver Jauan Jennings may have just made the catch of the year in the NFL in Sunday's game against the Rams. The San Francisco wideout reeled in this grab over a Los Angeles defender.

Jennings had a huge day with three touchdowns, but the Rams got the last laugh with a last-second victory over the Niners.

And meet Pesto, the King Penguin. At just nine months old, he weighs 50 pounds. And he's already bigger than his parents.

Unlike most penguins, Pesto is covered in brown feathers and eats more than 30 fish a day. That is twice as many as the average adult penguin.

Oh, buddy.

All right. Time now for weather. Something may be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is watching for a tropical system to form in the next couple of days.

Let's get straight to our meteorologist, the weatherman, Derek van Dam. Derek, what are you seeing?

[06:25:03]

DEREK VAN DAM, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Good morning, Kasie.

You'll be hearing a lot about Helene in the days to come. That is our next name on the Atlantic hurricane season. And for good reason.

The National Hurricane Center has tagged a very organized cluster of showers and storms over the western and Caribbean. Invest, meaning that they're going to focus a lot of attention on this approaching storm system that will develop likely into, into a depression, tropical storm, and eventually, a hurricane with the potential of a powerful landfall in hurricane by later this week as it approaches the Florida Gulf of Mexico coastline.

Now is the time to review your hurricane evacuation routes, get your hurricane kit in place, and also keep an eye on the forecast anywhere from the Florida Panhandle right through Tampa Bay. That is where the clustering of our ensemble monitors -- models that we look at the weather models that give us the guidance on where the storm is going, although there has been some shifting to the East in the overnight model. So, we'll monitor that quickly.

One thing's for sure. A lot of warm water ahead of this storm system. That means we have the potential for a strengthening storm. And you can see the differences between the European model, a weaker storm further to the West, the American model, further to the East, and a stronger, more powerful storm, making landfall about the same time later Thursday and into the early Friday morning.

We're going to monitor the Gulf of Mexico for Helene in the days to come. Lots of rain, potential for flooding, and tornadoes with this system, as well.

HUNT: All right. Lots to watch.

VAN DAM: Busy week.

HUNT: Derek van Dam for us this morning. Derek, thank you.

All right. Still ahead here on CNN THIS MORNING, there's a plan in place to avoid a costly government shutdown. Is it going to work? We'll have details just ahead.

Plus, former North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory joins us to talk about the race in North Carolina. Could a Democratic candidate for president win there for the first time since 2008?

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I feel pretty good about North Carolina, which is great, because two months ago we did not.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

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