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CNN This Morning

U.S. Sees Possibility Of Israeli Ground Incursion Into Lebanon; Lebanese Officials Estimate One Million Displaced By Attacks; 60 Plus Deaths, 2.5 Million Without Power In Helene Aftermath; Trump, Harris Back On The Campaign Trail Today To Wrap Busy Weekend; Pew Research: Harris Performing Better Than Biden Among Latino Voters. Harris Visits Border in Arizona; White House on Nasrallah's Death; U.S. Officials Celebrating Nasrallah's Death; Iran Asks for U.N. Council Security Meeting; Tens of Thousands of Port Worker Threaten to Strike. Aired 7- 8a ET

Aired September 29, 2024 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[07:00:43]

AMARA WALKER, CNN HOST: Hi, everyone, welcome to our viewers in the U.S. and around the world. I'm Amara Walker in Atlanta.

Jim Sciutto is in Tel Aviv as we continue to follow breaking news out of the Middle East. And fears are continuing to grow that the exchange of fire across the border between Israel and Lebanon could turn into a ground incursion and potentially an even wider regional war.

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN HOST: That's right. It would be quite a step. U.S. officials say that Israeli troops have mobilized at Israel's northern border in preparation, at least, for a possible ground offensive inside Lebanon. Israel says, however, the crossing the border is only one option it is considering.

(BEGIN VIDEOCLIP)

LT. PETER LERNER, IDF SPOKESMAN: We need to understand, there's a huge amount of different tools that we have in our toolbox. Ground operations is one of them. We are preparing for that if it is required, if we receive the instructions.

(END VIDEOCLIP)

SCIUTTO: Well, it would be quite a significant tool. The IDF has not let up its air offensive inside Lebanon. Lebanese officials say four people were killed in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon in recent hours in Beirut. Smoke visible, rising above the skyline this morning.

Several Israeli airstrikes have hit the capital in recent days, including the one that killed the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah. Saturday's strikes in Lebanon reportedly killed more than 30 people and wounded close to 200 others. Caught in the middle of it all, the residents, civilians of Beirut.

Those airstrikes by Israel have displaced more than a million people just since Monday. Hundreds of families have now resorted to sleeping on beaches and in public squares.

CNN's Jomana Karadsheh is standing by in Beirut. We begin this morning, though, with Jeremy Diamond. He's in Haifa in northern Israel. Jeremy, we talk about preparations for a ground offensive inside Lebanon by Israel. I know you've seen some of those forces along the border. Can you describe how significant that force is at this point?

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT: Yes. Well, Jim, I don't have a full sense of exactly how many troops. I mean, northern Israel is mountainous territory. There are peaks and valleys, and certainly, there are areas where there were likely troops and tanks that we were not able to see.

But what we did as we were driving along the border on Friday was in at least one field, an array of tanks not dissimilar to what I saw in the lead up to Israel's invasion of Gaza in the first weeks of this -- of the war in Gaza. And these tanks are prepared. We know of course that in addition to what we saw, the Israeli military has activated two reserve brigades.

They've redirected the 98th division, which was a key fighting force in Gaza to the northern border. And, of course, Israeli generals in recent days have repeatedly made clear that they are indeed preparing for a ground offensive and that they are doing so in part through those airstrikes that have been carried out over the course of the last weeks.

That those airstrikes are not only designed to degrade Hezbollah, but also to prepare the terrain for the possibility of a ground force moving in. U.S. officials say that they've also seen evidence of areas near the Israel-Lebanon border being cleared by Israeli forces, which could be used to then move troops in.

But we should be really, really clear here, Jim, and that is that the Israeli government has not yet made a decision as to whether or not a ground offensive is in the cards. For now, what they are certainly doing, though, is they are taking advantage of what one Israeli official described to me as the disarray in Hezbollah right now.

And they are doing so by effectively trying to deal as severe a blow to Hezbollah, their operational capabilities, their weapons stores, as they possibly can amid this chaos following the killing of multiple senior Hezbollah commanders including, of course, Hezbollah's leader, longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, on Friday night.

And so, over the course of the last 24 hours, we have seen the Israeli military carrying out dozens of strikes in southern Lebanon. And we've also seen, of course, multiple strikes in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Dahiya, where Hezbollah has a very strong presence.

Of course, beyond the impact on Hezbollah, we have also seen, of course, a heavy impact on Lebanon's civilians, in terms of the number of people displaced, people -- civilians who have also been killed in many of these strikes.

[07:05:01]

The Israeli military also taking out yet another senior Hezbollah commander, Nabil Kaouk, the commander of Hezbollah's Preventive Security Unit and a member of Hezbollah's central decision-making council. So for now, Jim, there is certainly no letup in this. And the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, warning the Israeli public that there will be difficult days ahead. Jim?

SCIUTTO: Listen, one open question is, how much can Israel accomplish from the air with those airstrikes, given that so much of the Hezbollah network in the south is underground? Can they penetrate those tunnels? It would certainly be dangerous for Israeli ground forces if they were to go in.

Jeremy Diamond in Haifa, thanks so much.

So let's go to Beirut now where Jomana Karadsheh is. Jomana, describe how Lebanese civilians have been affected by the ongoing air campaign by Israel there.

JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, Jim, as you were speaking with Jeremy there, we could hear a distant blast. It's unclear what that is, but this really has become commonplace here in Beirut over the last 48 hours or so.

You've had these intense Israeli strikes, this bombardment, especially on Beirut's southern suburbs. That, of course, was the seat of power of Hezbollah. That is where the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in that Israeli strike where you've had other top commanders also killed by the Israelis there.

But it's also home to hundreds of thousands of civilians. You know, right now, when we talk about these airstrikes, it's really unclear what the casualty toll is. We've heard from Lebanese officials saying that it's been very hard for them to get the exact figures because they say that there are many unidentifiable body parts, there's also people who are unaccounted for.

But as of last night, they say that at least 1,030 people have been killed. Now, there's no breakdown of how many of them are Hezbollah fighters and how many are civilians, but we've heard from Lebanese officials that many, many women and children have been killed in these strikes in different parts of the country.

And just to put it into context, Jim, the 2006 war, 34 days, about 1,100 people were killed in Lebanon. And then within a few days, since September the 17th, you've had at least 1,030 people killed and thousands others injured. That is one of the crises that the health sector here is dealing with, trying to treat the thousands of injured.

But you also have this other crisis that is unfolding right now, and that is the displacement. As you mentioned earlier, more than a million people, according to the estimates by the Lebanese government, have been displaced from their homes because the southern suburbs is one of the most densely populated parts of the country.

And in recent days, as these airstrikes have intensified, you've had this mass exodus with people either ending up in schools, turning into shelters like this one, or people with nowhere to go because there aren't enough centers set up for them that they have ended up on the streets sleeping on sidewalks, on benches in parks.

And this is what we saw earlier when we were out in different parts of central Beirut. Jim, we're talking about Lebanese citizens, Syrian refugees and many, many migrant workers who are here in Lebanon. I spoke with one young girl from Syria, a 10-year-old who lost her father during the Civil War, Jim, and she broke down.

She was crying hysterically saying that she is so afraid right now. She's so terrified of the prospect of leaving -- of losing her mother and her siblings.

SCIUTTO: Yes. Listen, like in Gaza, right, oftentimes the civilians, they are refugees more than one time. They move from one place to the next seeking shelter. That place becomes unsafe. They have to move to another one.

Jomana Karadsheh in Beirut, thanks so much for bringing us that story.

Joining me now is CNN National Security Analyst Peter Bergen, also Bobby Ghosh, Senior Editor at Bloomberg. Good to have you both on. And Peter, I want to begin with you, because you wrote a piece about the history of decapitation strikes or assassination strikes, whatever you want to call them, of terror leaders.

Of course, Israel has a long history of killing Hamas leaders, and those leaders are replaced. Same with the U.S., when you think of its experience with ISIS. Tell us, does it historically make a difference? And is it a question of who, and how powerful the leader is?

PETER BERGEN, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Jim, I think the short answer is no. I don't think it makes a difference in the long term. I mean, particularly when you're looking at an army of 30,000 men, 150,000 rockets and missiles. You know, they have a succession plan. They've been around for four decades.

It's very tempting to think that, you know, you get rid of the leader and suddenly everything changes. Obviously, a lot of the leaders have been killed by Israel (INAUDIBLE).

[07:10:06]

And if you take out the middle management as well, you know, that can affect an organization. But this is not a small terrorist organization like Al-Qaeda, which is relatively small. This is, you know, really an Army.

SCIUTTO: That's a good point just in terms of scale and size. Bobby, I want to ask you about Iran's positioning on all this, because it's been notable in recent days to hear from Iran. There was one statement from the Supreme Leader talking about how the response -- seeming to signal that the response, retaliation, would come from Hezbollah and not Iran.

Do you believe that Iran continues to stand back somewhat for fear of getting involved in a broader war that it may not want with Israel right now?

BOBBY GHOSH, SENIOR EDITOR, BLOOMBERG: Well, all the reporting, Jim, seems to suggest that there is a considerable debate within the Iranian high command. There are the hawks who want a -- to lean in more and get much more involved and directly within the conflict with Israel. And then there are others like the president who are worried that by doing so, Iran may walk into a trap. And that's the dilemma now for the leadership.

As you say, the statement from Ayatollah Khomeini, the supreme leader, seems to suggest that he's comfortable with Hezbollah taking the lead. But Hezbollah is now leaderless in considerable disarray. A lot of their top commanders are out. A lot of their military installations have been bombed out.

They're facing a serious crisis. This does not seem to be the moment for its main patron to be saying you're out on your own, which is how many in Lebanon will interpret that message. So it speaks to Tehran being caught flat footed by the events.

The -- for all that, the Iranian regime prides itself for being in control of events in the Middle East. This time, this came out of the blue. The loss of Hassan Nasrallah, a personal friend and protege of Khomeini's, was a big blow. And Tehran has not yet formulated a clear line of rhetoric in this response, never mind a strategy of action --

BERGEN: Yes.

GHOSH: -- to respond to this crisis.

SCIUTTO: We've talked so long for months, well years really, Peter, about how Iran has grown and used its proxy forces, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, to squeeze Israel. But given not the elimination by any means, but the depletion of Hamas in Gaza based on this almost yearlong significant operation there, these latest operations against Hezbollah, has Iran's influence on the situation been reduced? And is it possible exaggerated to some degree based on what we've seen?

BERGEN: I think reduced is a good word. And, you know, picking up on what Bobby said, you know, when Iran's most important military leader, Major General Soleimani was killed by the Trump administration in early 2020, Iran really didn't respond. And that was one of their own top leaders.

So, you know, why would they respond in, you know, in greater, you know, kind of depth when it's really not even somebody who's part of their team, as it were. Obviously, it's there -- Hezbollah's on the team, but if not, you know, Soleimani was a national hero in Iran, and the Iranians continue to try and want to respond to that by, for instance, planning to assassinate President Trump and planning to assassinate John Bolton, his national security adviser.

So if they didn't respond in that case, it's hard for me to think that they'd respond in this case in any meaningful way, you know, in terms of like a larger war.

SCIUTTO: Bobby, rarely has the daylight between President Biden and the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu been clearer than in recent days and weeks, where the U.S. has pressed both for a ceasefire, hostage deal in Gaza, complained, behind closed doors at least, at least privately, about Netanyahu's interest or lack of interest in it, and now with the U.S. led effort for a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

Is that a short-term thing? I mean, is it your perception that Netanyahu sees a window here with the U.S. election coming, a lame duck U.S. president, that he has free reign to do what he wants?

GHOSH: Well, Netanyahu has been pursuing his own agenda consistently since the events of 7th of October, arguably even from before. He knows that he has bipartisan support in American politics. Whether the president, the occupant of the White House supports him or not, he understands that the president will not go against that bipartisan consensus, not beyond just rhetorical finger waving.

[07:15:04]

And he has acted in complete confidence in that knowledge. And now he will feel vindicated because not only has he taken out in short order two of Israel's greatest enemies, both the leaders of Hamas as well of Hezbollah in quick succession, and he has Hezbollah on the back foot. And the fears off the wider regional conflagration have not born out.

Against that, the White House will say that, yes, the wider war hasn't broken out, but we get closer and closer all the time. But maybe Netanyahu is showing that he's prepared to take that risk regardless of what President Biden has to say.

And he seems to be -- there's a lot of reporting to suggest that he's counting on the election in November to lead to Donald Trump returning to the White House, and he feels that that will liberate him more. I, for one, struggle to see that.

I don't think Donald Trump wants to come to office with a having to manage a major crisis in the Middle East if he can help it. But that seems to be Netanyahu's calculation.

SCIUTTO: Right.

GHOSH: So far, you have to say he's been borne out.

SCIUTTO: Peter Bergen, Bobby Ghosh, thanks so much to both of you.

Let's go back to Amara in Atlanta.

WALKER: All right, Jim Sciutto, thank you. And still to come, Hurricane Helene, one of the most powerful storms to hit the country, barreled through the southeast. The massive cleanup operation facing the region now underway.

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[07:21:16]

WALKER: At least 62 people have died because of Helene and officials are working around the clock to assess the damage that has been left behind, and it is monumental. President Biden has issued disaster declarations for North Carolina, Florida and Tennessee. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp said, quote, "It looks like a bomb went off and it's not just here."

In North Carolina, emergency responders rescued more than 200 people from floodwaters, while more than 60 people in one county are still unaccounted for. Even getting safe drinking water is a challenge in North Carolina since 17 water plants there have no power.

And speaking of power issues, more than 2.5 million people are still without electricity across five states this morning. And down trees, landslides and communications issues are ongoing.

Some Florida residents have been left homeless by Helene, and there are boil water orders in multiple counties. The state also has about a quarter of a million customers without power.

Now, one of the areas where Helene left devastating damage is Asheville, North Carolina. Recovery efforts are underway right now, but emergency services are having a hard time keeping up with the calls for help. Basic services people take for granted are now unavailable.

(BEGIN VIDEOCLIP)

CHIEF MIKE CAYSE, CITY OF ASHEVILLE FIRE RESCUE: I can tell you the City of Asheville is in dire straits right now. We've lost communications capabilities. We -- it's very difficult for us to move around the community. Many, many of the roads are closed. Trees are down. We're clearing those as quickly as we can. And a lot of the critical infrastructure that we become used to every day in normal times is now gone and we have to work around it.

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WALKER: CNN's Rafael Romo takes us to Asheville as it is struggling to get a handle on the devastation.

RAFAEL ROMO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The impact of Hurricane Helene is going to be felt across the southeast for many months to come, perhaps even longer. Take a look at the devastation behind me. That is a mobile restaurant, a taco stand that is still submerged.

But what you see behind me is not water. This is mud and it's several inches that are covering the wheels of that taco stand. Now, let me show you something else. The level of the water, the debris can show you that this is a debris line, which means that the water got up to this level, several feet above the street level that you saw right behind me.

And we are also hearing from education officials, the University of North Carolina Asheville announced that they will suspend classes until October nine. We heard from chancellor Kimberly by North who said that there are so many fallen trees and there are so many areas of campus that are inaccessible that it is not possible to be able to hold operations normally.

Also, mobile service and internet are down. And we've been talking to people here who tell us that they had never seen anything like what they saw in the last few days. Earlier, I spoke with the gentleman who told me that he's been living 40 years here in Asheville, and he's still amazed at the devastation of Mother Nature.

Let's take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEOCLIP)

There's a railroad bridge just north of town, and that's never been underwater, even in, I believe, it was 1916 was a big flood. That wasn't under water. And yesterday it was underwater.

(END VIDEOCLIP)

ROMO: Another main problem here in Asheville is that water service has been disrupted pretty much across the city. And people are wondering when will we get the service back? What officials are saying, and that's what they said in a statement on Saturday, is that they are assessing, they are sending crews across the city to assess the damage caused by the storm.

[07:25:13]

And they have at least one water main break that they have to deal with and they -- they're taking a close look at the system to see what they can prioritize to make sure that they do it slowly, but the proper way so that they do not contaminate the water even more. Again, that process may take several days before people can get water back up.

Also, cell phone service and Internet services are down for most of the population. Amara, back to you.

WALKER: Just Asheville is unrecognizable. So sad.

Rafael Romo, thank you.

And for more information about how you can help Hurricane Helene victims, go to CNN.com/impact.

All right, we are about five weeks out from the presidential election, and both candidates are wrapping up a busy weekend on the campaign trail. Former President Donald Trump will be in the battleground state of Pennsylvania after a visit to Wisconsin last night.

And Vice President Kamala Harris will be in her home state of California for a fundraiser in Los Angeles. And then she will head to Nevada for a rally in Las Vegas. Now overall, polls are mostly showing the two in a dead heat. But that's not the case for specific groups of voters, including Latino voters.

A CNN poll released just days ago shows Harris leading Trump by 19 points among likely Latino voters. That is well outside the margin of error.

Joining us now is Pew Research Director of Race and Ethnicity Research, Mark Hugo Lopez. Mark, good morning to you. Thank you so much for joining us. A big picture here first off. From your perspective, Mark, is Harris where she needs to be today with Latino voters to win?

MARK HUGO LOPEZ, DIRECTOR OF RACE AND ETHNICITY RESEARCH, PEW RESEARCH CENTER: Well, she's likely to win the Latino vote as Democratic presidential candidates have over the last several decades. But what's interesting here is that her level of support is a little bit about where Biden was in 2020, maybe a little bit behind.

And so that could have implications in some of the battleground states as you look at places like Arizona and Nevada and Pennsylvania. So we'll have to see, but she's running about as close to Biden as we've seen in recent polls.

WALKER: Yet, she, as you mentioned, is still trailing Biden in 2020 when it comes to the Latino vote and the black vote between six to eight points. She's trailing Biden. Why this disparity?

LOPEZ: Part of it, I think, has to do with some of the changes we've seen in terms of Latino voters' support for the different candidates and how they're viewing the parties. Our surveys over the last couple of years have shown that Latinos have generally said, while the Democratic Party may be the better party for the Latino population, it's also one that they feel isn't necessarily aligned with the issues and concerns of Hispanic voters.

So, for example, this year, the economy, inflation, prices have been a top issue for Latinos, not necessarily immigration. And as you look at who Latinos say would be the better candidate on the issue of the economy, actually, they're split. Some say Trump in about an equal share say Harris.

WALKER: So -- and speaking of which, you authored a Pew Research report this week titled, "In Tight U.S. Presidential Race, Latino Voters' Preferences Mirror 2020." And you write that economy is the top issue for Latino voters, including health care, violent crime, gun policies as well. So it's -- but it's the economy, not immigration as some people might typically think, is the main issue for Latino voters?

LOPEZ: That's exactly right. And, in fact, what's really interesting here is that while it, overall, it may not be the top issue, I would want to point out that for Latinos who say they're going to vote for Trump, it is the third most important issue for determining their vote. 71 percent of Latino Trump supporters say that.

When you take a look at Harris Latino supporters, though, immigration is much farther down the list. The top issues for them are the economy, healthcare, gun policy, and only 37 percent say immigration is important for determining their vote.

So while overall it may not be the top issue, there is a difference in preferences and importance of the issue of immigration for Latino Trump supporters versus Latino Harris supporters. That's not much different from what we see from all U.S. registered voters. Overall, there is this divide with the importance of immigration for Trump supporters versus Harris support.

WALKER: Very interesting. So, top issue for Harris supporters is more immigration than economy. Let me ask you this then, because when you see Harris out and about in these border states like Arizona, she'll be in Nevada tonight.

These are crucial swing states where you have a significant portion of the electorate being Latino voters and you hear her messaging. I mean, she's obviously gone to the right on immigration. She wants tougher border security measures. She's promising to revive that bipartisan bill that Trump tanked himself. Does she risk alienating some Latino voters by using the stronger language?

LOPEZ: She may, but also by using the stronger language, she else may be attempting to attract some of those Latino voters who rate immigration as a top issue and also say they're going to be voting for Donald Trump. Many Latinos on the -- who say they're going to vote for Donald Trump also indicate that the border and border security is an important issue for them as well as deporting immigrants who are in the country without authorization.

That contrast with what you see among Latino Harris supporters who might say, for example, a pathway to citizenship for the undocumented is one of the top issues for them when it comes to immigration. So, her move may be an attempt to attract some of those Latino voters who have indicated they're going to support Donald Trump.

I would say though that in terms of our surveys, we have seen that Latino Trump supporters, over 70 percent of them, say that their vote is going to be for Trump. They're unlikely to change their vote. So, we'll see what happens.

WALKER: Well, you know, the variety of opinions that you see within the Latino voters, that population just underscores that when we talk about, you know, ethnic groups like the Latinos, the black vote, the Asian vote, we're not all a monolith, right, in these groups. I mean, there's obviously a diversity of opinions within the group as well. Mark Hugo Lopez, we appreciate you. Thanks so much.

LOPEZ: Thank you.

WALKER: And be sure to watch Tim Walz and J. D. Vance in their first and only face-to-face debate, a CNN special event. The Vice Presidential Debate simulcast will be hosted by CBS News. It airs live Tuesday at 7:00 p.m. I mean -- 9:00 p.m. Eastern on CNN. 9:00 p.m. Eastern, everybody.

Well, the death of Hezbollah's leader is adding to fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East. Coming up, how the White House is reacting with just six weeks to go for the U.S. presidential election.

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[07:35:00]

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back. Jim Sciutto live in Tel Aviv. Some U.S. officials celebrating the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Like many of its Western allies, the U.S. designates Hezbollah a terrorist organization. The Republican Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell, posted a statement saying, quote, "Hassan Nasrallah authored decades of terror and suffering across the Middle East. Israelis, Americans, Lebanese, and Syrians are safer without him on the battlefield."

House Speaker Mike Johnson, House Majority Whip Steve Scalise, and Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik issued a joint statement calling Nasrallah a puppet of the Iranian regime. There were also statements from President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris calling this a measure of justice for the victims, the families of victims of Hezbollah's attacks.

Joining me now, CNN White House Reporter Camila DeChalus. Camila, we know the Defense Secretary Austin spoke with the Israeli Defense Minister on Saturday. Do we know what the U.S. position is on Israel's potential incursion on the ground into Israel, but also on U.S. force posture in the region?

CAMILA DECHALUS, CNN WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Well, Jim, U.S. officials say that they fully believe that Israel is within its right to defend itself against terrorist organizations. But they also stress the need for a ceasefire deal in order to de-escalate the tensions in this region.

Now, just yesterday, President Biden put out a statement and this is what he had to say. He said, ultimately, our aim is to de-escalate the ongoing conflicts in both Gaza and Lebanon through diplomatic means. Now, Biden also just went on to say that they are pursuing a ceasefire deal that's backed by the U.N. Security Council.

Now, even though he did not go into more specifics about what this deal would entail, he made it very clear that he believes that the only path forward is through diplomatic means in order to really mitigate the tensions in this region.

SCIUTTO: Yes, of course, one has to wonder where that ceasefire effort stands given the escalation in strikes in recent days by Israel. Camila DeChalus in Washington, thanks so much for joining us.

We continue to follow all the threads here in Israel. And we will be right back

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[07:40:00]

WALKER: Tens of thousands of port workers are threatening to strike Tuesday morning if a deal is not reached, and the impact could be far reaching, affecting industries as diverse as autos, auto parts to furniture, agriculture and even alcohol. CNN's Vanessa Yurkevich has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

VANESSA YURKEVICH, CNN BUSINESS & POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: It'll be the first port strike on the East and Gulf Coast in nearly 50 years. The International Longshoremen and the U.S. Maritime Alliance, USMX, have yet to reach a deal, which means tens of thousands of dock workers could go on strike at 12:01 a.m. on Tuesday morning.

Now, that would impact three dozen locations at 14 major U.S. ports from Maine all the way down to Texas, agriculture, furniture, alcohol, autos, and car parts would have no way to get in and out of the U.S. through these ports.

Now, for example, nearly 90 percent of all imported cherries, 80 percent of imported beer, wine, whiskey, and scotch all arrive at East and Gulf Coast ports. And any cargo that's left on the docks, if there is a strike, it'll not be accessible, which means that food could spoil.

The union and USMX. Haven't met face to face since June, and the Maritime Alliance felt an unfair labor practice charge with the National Labor Relations Board to try to force the union back to the table before Tuesday's deadline. The union, though, calling this a publicity stunt, adding that the Maritime group has failed to offer or provide an acceptable deal.

USMX have -- has offered wages upwards of 40 percent in wage increases over the six-year contract, and that's according to a source familiar with the negotiations. Now, many retailers who saw this potential strike coming brought in their merchandise early or rerouted to the West Coast so holiday shopping doesn't get disrupted. But any strike would be disruptive. Just a one-week strike would take ports over a month to recover, according to Oxford economics.

[07:45:00]

Now, President Biden does have the power to end the strike through the Taft-Hartley Act, but an administration official has said he's not considering it.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WALKER: All right. Vanessa Yurkevich, thank you. Let's discuss on how this could affect you and of course, the big picture, the U.S. economy. Jason Miller, associate professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, joining me now. Good morning to you.

OK. Jason, so, if the Longshore Union members walk out, this could become the most disruptive strike to the U.S. economy in decades, right? How so?

JASON MILLER, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT, MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY: Yes. So, the last time we had an Eastern Gulf Coast port strike was 1977. There was far less trade back then. So, we really are in uncharted waters in terms of the economic impact. And so, right now, we're just waiting to see, you know, we're getting to the 11th hour if negotiations will resume, if a deal will be struck, and then, if we do go on strike, really just understanding how long that will take place.

WALKER: So, obviously, a lot will depend on how long this potential strike lasts, right? So, what would be the threshold then when you know, we consumers would actually start feeling the impact since perhaps seeing shortages at the grocery store or what have you?

MILLER: I would say the magic number is two weeks. Anything beyond two weeks is going to be very, very, very disruptive. And at that point, we will essentially be digging ourselves out of the sort of backlog still through January at that point.

If it would be a short strike of only a few days, that won't be that disruptive because you can think about it that ports often have to close down due to extreme weather events like hurricanes for a day or two. And we don't have, you know, rampant shortages. So, it's really a, you know, two-week period that's kind of, to me, the threshold.

WALKER: OK. So, then if it -- the strike does happen, it lasts beyond two weeks, what kind of impacts will we consumers start to feel?

MILLER: Yes. So, you're going to start running into situations where, let's say, certain fresh fruits or vegetables may be in short supply because there isn't an alternative way to get those to the store shelf. You may start seeing, you know, sporadic, you know, shortfalls of, let's say, your favorite wine from Europe as an example, because there's no other way to get that here. Your favorite piece of -- the piece of furniture that you're wanting to buy, that may not be here as well because that's also waiting to be unloaded.

WALKER: I think you also told our producer that the car industry will be the most impacted. Could you elaborate and what does that mean for, you know, people who are in the market to buy a new car?

MILLER: Yes. So, the auto industry brings in tens of thousands of containers of auto parts. It's numbers that are really difficult to comprehend. And with auto production, we don't bring in a lot of inventory of parts ahead of time. And so, a lot of the parts that would be needed to produce vehicles, let's say, towards the end of this month will be on those boats right now. And so, if those don't get unloaded, you start having sporadic plant slowdowns, and at that point, that could mean workers even being put on temporary layoff, that then cascades further upstream to domestic part suppliers, and you have some of these ripple effects like we saw in 2021, albeit it's important to understand we're not looking at a disruption unless this is a very, very long strike, anywhere near the degree we were experiencing in 2021 or the first half of 2022.

WALKER: Then I have to ask because the holidays are not that far away, could it impact our holiday shopping?

MILLER: Fortunately, holiday shopping should not be that impacted. What we -- since this was an event that we knew could potentially happen, a lot of retailers were bringing in these holiday items ahead of time. And so, a lot of the inventory of toys and Christmas items is very likely already sitting in warehouses, or it's right now being routed, planned rerouting through the West Coast. And so, if it's showing up here in October, it was planned to arrive on the West Coast.

WALKER: Got it. All right. Well, we'll watch this closely. Jason Miller, appreciate you breaking down all of this for us. Thank you.

We will be right back

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[07:50:00]

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Full power, and liftoff of Crew-9.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WALKER: There you see it, the SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft successfully launching from Florida's Cape Canaveral yesterday. A two- man team is now on the way to bring two NASA astronauts home from the International Space Station. Astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore have been stranded on the ISS since June after their Boeing Starliner capsule was deemed too risky for the flight back to Earth.

A NASA astronaut and Russian cosmonaut will now join Williams and Wilmore for five months of work aboard the floating lab, and all are due to head home in February.

Well, this week's episode of "TV on the Edge" looks at diet culture and how Oprah Winfrey and daytime TV was reflective of society's fixation with losing weight. Here's a preview.

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TIGRESS OSBORN, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION TO ADVANCE FAT ACCEPTANCE: I have concerns when it comes to the Ozempic era, and I wish that one of our favorite question askers would be asking more questions in this moment.

[07:55:00]

LEAH WRIGHT RIGUEUR, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF HISTORY, JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY: This diet culture has been around forever. We're just experiencing a new iteration of it. And I do think it's important that Oprah is on both ends of it. She was there in the beginning and she's here now.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WALKER: Be sure to tune in to a new episode of "TV on the Edge: Moments That Shaped our Culture" tonight at 9:00 p.m. Eastern right here on CNN.

All right. That is our time. Thank you so much for being with me this morning. I'll see you back here next weekend alongside Victor Blackwell. He will be back feeling good after his lovely vacation. Inside Politics starts after a quick break. Manu Raju will be joined by Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

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