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Harris Gaining Momentum Ahead of Election Day; Selzer's Iowa Poll: Harris 47% to Trump's 44%; Severe Weather Threatens Southern Plains; Poll: Georgia Race too Close to Call. Aired 6-6:30a ET
Aired November 04, 2024 - 06:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KASIE HUNT, CNN ANCHOR: It's Monday, November 4. Right now on this special edition of CNN THIS MORNING.
[05:58:57]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT, 2024 PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Somebody would have to shoot through the fake news. And I don't mind that so much.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: He wouldn't mind. Donald Trump ramps up dark rhetoric in the final days of the election, once again going after the media.
And this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, 2024 PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Pennsylvania will be key, no doubt.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: All eyes on Pennsylvania. Both candidates to deliver their final messages in the crucial commonwealth.
And this --
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TRUMP: They tell me I'm down in Iowa. I don't think so.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: Iowa in play? We'd be surprised, but a shocking new poll shows Kamala Harris leading in the Hawkeye State, somewhere Democrats have not won since 2012.
And this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MAYA RUDOLPH, ACTRESS: The American people want to stop the chaos --
HARRIS: -- and end the dramala.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: Live from New York, it's Kamala Harris. The vice president following in the footsteps of past candidates, making a surprise cameo on "Saturday Night Live."
Just a few seconds before 6 a.m. here on the East Coast. A live look at Detroit, Michigan. With one day left before election day, both campaigns sending their V.P. hopefuls to this all-important Blue Wall state.
Good morning, everyone. I'm Kasie Hunt. It's wonderful to have you with us.
This is it. Tomorrow is election day. The first polls will open just 24 hours from right now. And the choice, your choice, could not be more clear in these final days.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HARRIS: As I travel, I see Americans from so-called red states to so- called blue states who are ready to bend the arc of history toward justice.
In times of uncertainty, we are reminded weeping may endure for a night, but joy cometh in the morning. And church, morning is on its way.
TRUMP: And having this piece of glass here, but all we have, really, over here is the fake news. Right? And, to get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news. And I don't mind that so much. Because I don't mind.
We've got a lot of crooked people out there. We're fighting like a son of a gun.
They are fighting so hard to steal this damn thing.
We had the safest border in the history of our country the day that I left. I shouldn't have left. I mean, honestly.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: Harris invoking Martin Luther King Jr. Trump closing with more violent rhetoric, raising the specter of reporters being shot and already casting doubt on the election results.
He said there he shouldn't have left in 2020. That is part of a broader strategy that we should be paying attention to in the race's final days.
"The New York Times" wrote it this way on Sunday: quote, "Former President Donald J. Trump and his allies are rolling out a late-stage campaign strategy that borrows heavily from the subversive playbook he used to challenge his loss four years ago."
So, what was that playbook? Let's review.
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TRUMP (via phone): So, look, all I want to do is this. I just want to find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have. Because we won the state.
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HUNT: He actually lost. Trump was pressuring Georgia's secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, to overturn the will of his state's voters. When Raffensperger wouldn't cave, Trump pressured his own vice president to simply overrule the American people.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: If Mike Pence does the right thing, we win the election. All Vice President Pence has to do is send it back to the states to recertify, and we become president; and you are the happiest people.
Mike Pence is going to have to come through for us, and if he doesn't, that will be a sad day for our country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: This was the scene shortly after Trump made those remarks on the Ellipse on January 6.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hang Mike Pence! Hang Mike Pence! Hang Mike Pence!
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hang Mike Pence! Hang Mike Pence! Hang Mike Pence!
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hang Mike Pence! Hang Mike Pence! Hang Mike Pence!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: Generating that mob relied on thousands of people believing Trump's lie that the election was stolen from him. And now, in 2024, as the "Times" goes on to right, quote, "Mr. Trump and his most prominent supporters have pointed to partisan pulling and betting markets to claim that he is heading for a, quote, 'crushing victory,' as his top surrogate Elon Musk recently put it. The expectation helps set the stage for disbelief and outrage among his supporters should he lose."
It's been the message behind the scenes, too, with Trump aides and supporters trying to create a sense of inevitability that would raise doubts in the event of a Trump loss.
But in the final hours of this presidential race, there are some signs that late momentum could be with Vice President Kamala Harris. The final new "New York Times"/Siena College poll showed the race
neck-and-neck in the battlegrounds but found signs that late-deciding voters are breaking for Harris, 55 percent to 44 percent.
And the highly-anticipated and well-respected Iowa poll from Ann Selzer and "The Des Moines Register" shocking the political world over the weekend with a three-point lead for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in the ruby-red Hawkeye State. That's a seven-point swing since the last Iowa poll in September.
And right now, Democrats are cautiously optimistic that things are breaking their way.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HARRIS: We have momentum. It is on our side. Can you feel it?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes!
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes!
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes!
[06:05:05]
HARRIS: And we have the momentum, because our campaign is tapping into the ambition, the aspirations, and the dreams of the American people. Because we are optimistic and excited about what we can do together.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: All right. Election day is tomorrow.
Joining us now to discuss: Zolan Kanno-Youngs, CNN political analyst and White House correspondent for "The New York Times"; Alex Thompson, CNN political analyst, national political reporter for Axios; Meghan Hays, the former director of message planning at the Biden White House; and Matt Gorman, former senior advisor to Tim Scott's 2016 presidential campaign.
Welcome to all of you. Thank you so much for being here, just one day out.
All right. So, Alex, let me start with you. What are you hearing? What do you know?
ALEX THOMPSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: I'm hearing Kamala Harris, underdog no more. I mean, you heard it in that clip right there. She's saying that she has the momentum.
The Trump campaign, I can tell you, there's more anxiety on the Trump side than I've heard in at least a month. I think morale was low in September when it appeared that the Harris momentum -- they didn't know when it was going to end. Now, you know, they feel a little bit on the ropes.
And I think both sides, if they're being honest with you, with truth serum, they'd be like, we don't know what's going to happen.
HUNT: Zolan, yes, no?
(CROSSTALK)
ZOLAN KANNO-YOUNGS, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes. I think what's interesting here is just the contrast between these two -- these two candidates at this point.
And by that, I mean you really are seeing the former president sort of lean on this dark portrayal of the country, trying to tap into anger of voters. Look, anger can be a motivator to get to the polls, as well.
On the other side, you have the vice president with this sort of optimistic, positive outlook. You know, going to a church yesterday on one of the final days for her closing argument.
You know, I've been following Vice President Harris and the Democrats a bit more than -- than the former president. And specifically with her sort of message, as well, I think it's interesting that the different sort of how she tailors different speeches to address different constituencies that amount to vulnerabilities for her campaign.
Yesterday, you saw her talk about Gaza. That represents Arab-Americans and sort of the vulnerability there for her.
HUNT: Because she was in Detroit.
KANNO-YOUNGS: That's absolutely right. You've seen her, the former -- former President Obama be deployed for Latino and black men, as well, trying to empathize, saying, look, I know that you feel as if the government may have neglected you, and trying to empathize there.
And of course, also, we're watching the gender gap in this race, as well.
HUNT: Yes. So, Meghan, I mean, what are -- what are your text threads saying? Do -- do Democrats right now feel a little bit more optimistic about where they were? Because there was this period of time in October where it seemed like Trump was closing the gap in the national polling. They were a lot more excited about where they stood.
I'm just trying to find out how much that's changing here in the final days.
MEGHAN HAYS, FORMER DIRECTOR OF MESSAGE PLANNING FOR BIDEN WHITE HOUSE: Yes, I think it started last week with the Cheney comments that you saw on Thursday. And I think that the winds are definitely changing. You definitely hear people saying they're more cautiously optimistic. Everyone's not Debbie Downer. I think everyone, you know, to Alex's point, no one knows what's going to happen.
But I think that Trump is tapping into the anger, because he knows there are no undecideds left to pick off. His message is not going to win with those undecided women in these -- in these battleground states. I mean, we saw that from the poll in -- the "Des Moines Register" poll.
And I think that that's why the vice president is leaning towards more optimism, because she knows there are still people to get out to vote. So, this is an election of now you have to get these people to the polls to vote.
And I think that the Trump campaign realizes that they need to turn out their base, and she is hoping she can get undecideds.
MATT GORMAN, FORMER SENIOR ADVISOR TO TIM SCOTT'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN: Here's the thing we don't know in this age of, you know, long, early voting, where this is one big election day.
Right now, if this was 2000 or 2004, we'd be at 5 p.m. on election day, where if you only voted in one day. So, it's an open question. We don't know.
Is it better to have momentum a week and a half ago? Is it better to have momentum now? Right? As of the 29th of October, 50 million people voted ready. Seventy-five million people yesterday. I bet 85 by the end of the day today.
So really, how do you quantify that? When is it best to peak? We're going to have a lot of answers by -- I think by this time next week on what that is.
HUNT: Yes. Can we talk about the Iowa poll for a second? Because let's bring up the track record that Ann Selzer has in Iowa over the course of the -- of recent cycles, because she obviously has had a very good track record. The last time she was wrong was back in 2004, and she was just kind of narrowly wrong.
Here it is. So, you can see that the numbers now -- now, again, I think we should note that the one that she has for Harris and Trump, it is within the margin of error.
Matt and I were talking about this on set in the 5 a.m. hour. I'm not talking to anyone that really thinks Kamala Harris is going to win in Iowa. What are they taking from this poll, Alex?
THOMPSON: Yes. It's not about Iowa at all. It's about what it says, especially, about white women and the surrounding Midwestern states.
If -- the biggest voting bloc in this country is not black men, which we've talked -- focused a lot about; not white men, that we've focused a lot about. The biggest voting bloc in this country is white women.
If there is a significant shift, even a small shift among white women in this country towards Kamala Harris, in -- in relation to the Dobbs decision, in relation to just being put off by Donald Trump, she could win this election pretty comfortably.
[06:10:03] HAYS: I -- I agree with you. I also think it's the 65 and older block.
And I also think it's showing how she's doing with rural voters, which I think people thought was going to be a problem for her.
And I think that we need to be paying attention to Kansas, Nebraska, and those votes -- results start coming in and how wide these gaps are.
HUNT: Yes. I mean, that's an interesting point, because that is one thing, when these returns start to come in. There are going to be states and places we know the outcome at the top line. But we're going to get a lot of really interesting information about the way these groups are moving.
All right. We're going to have much more coming up. Don't forget: tomorrow -- how could you forget -- it's election night in America! And from the first votes to the critical count, no one covers it like we do here at CNN.
Our special live coverage starts tomorrow at 4 p.m. Eastern right here on CNN. You can join me. I will be hanging out with our strategists, starting at 2 a.m., all the way through the morning.
And we do expect this go late into the night, early into the morning. So, I do hope you will join us.
Coming up ahead here on CNN THIS MORNING, we're going to have more on this. Gut punch for the Trump campaign. A new poll suggesting reliably red Iowa could have some blue leanings.
Plus, is Donald Trump prepared to tap RFK Jr. as the next head of Health and Human Services, if he wins?
Plus, we'll show you Kamala Harris -- Kamala Harris's cameo on "Saturday Night Live."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RUDOLPH: I'm going to vote for us.
HARRIS: Great. Any chance you are registered in Pennsylvania?
RUDOLPH: No, I am not.
HARRIS: Well, it was worth a shot.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
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[06:15:51]
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TRUMP: By the way, the polls are just as corrupt as some of the writers back there. They can make those polls sing. They can make them sing. They brag about it.
I got a poll, I'm 10 points up in Iowa. One of my enemies just puts out a pull, I'm three down.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: New reporting out that Donald Trump and his inner circle are reeling from the new Selzer poll in "The Des Moines Register." We were just discussing here at the table.
It found Kamala Harris with a three-point lead over Trump in the usually reliable red state. Of course, the former president has won handily twice before.
Sources tell CNN the former president is fuming over it, and Trump's advisers are trying to reassure him by claiming the poll's not accurate.
In the last five elections -- we showed you this -- the poll has only been wrong once. That was back in 2004. That poll, and Selzer's record, renewing questions about the accuracy of polling throughout the election.
Polling guru Nate Silver writes this: "A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong. Either Ann Selzer and 'The New York Times' or the rest of the polling industry."
Our panel is back. Matt Gorman, what do you think about this? Because I mean, this has been my biggest question. You know, the polls seem to all be showing the same thing, which is an incredibly tight race. Obviously, this Selzer poll is an outlier, from what we're seeing. Someone's going to be wrong, right, about it.
What do you think is underneath the hood here?
GORMAN: I mean, we talked about this in the last half hour. A couple things: No. 1, Selzer's probably wrong. I give her credit for putting this out that is so contrary to connection wisdom (ph). She doesn't necessarily have to. Ethically, it's the right thing to do, though.
Also, watch the campaigns' actions, right? If it was Vance or Walz going there, then then I would think this could be real.
But No. 2 is, Selzer is a little different. Unlike most pollsters, she doesn't model the electorate and try and guess what it will be. She finds geographic representation; doesn't stop until she gets kind of the appropriate number from every geographic.
Now, in the past, it's good. Because you can think about rural trends. 2014, Joni Ernst in a couple other areas, she was able to get on things first in that regard.
However, in the era where people aren't responding to polls as much, except in your -- for lack of a better term, a progressive super fan who just wants -- everybody to hate Donald Trump, it can skew the polls. And there are some things in there: democracy being over 50 percent, as opposed to the economy. No -- not publishing the recalled Biden number, for example, from 2020. It makes me think this is a little off.
HUNT: Meghan, you -- we were talking earlier about what this says about women, especially older white women in the Midwest. Obviously, the Blue Wall a huge focus.
I think my sort of big picture question about the polling and what we're seeing is because, look, pollsters can only really do -- they can only poll the last election. Right? That's the information that they have at hand.
This is the first presidential election since Roe fell. And I do think there are some potential X-factors we don't necessarily know about. Do you see some of that in here?
HAYS: Yes. And I also see just, like, a referendum on President Trump -- former President Trump. Right? Like, people are tired of it. It's exhausting.
But we also have to remember, the vice president has spent a significant amount of time in Iowa. So, people know her in Iowa more than they would in other states, when she was running for president in 2019. And I know she dropped before the election happened, but she did spend a significant amount of time there.
So there also, she could be benefiting from some of that. These people know her and have spent time with her, and they will still vote for her.
THOMPSON: I really think it's pick-your-own polling adventure here. The -- because you can make a convincing argument either way.
You can say that, you know, pollsters underrated Donald Trump in 2016. The COVID -- the COVID pandemic basically just screwed up polling in 2020. They're accurately counting Trump or undercounting Harris now.
You could also say -- you know, Nate Cohn in "The New York Times" polls, noted that the gap of -- of -- between Republican -- Republican white voters and Democratic white voters in terms of their response rate was as big as they had seen since the 2020 polls. It's possible that Republicans just don't trust a pollster when they say, "Hey, I'm with 'The New York Times.'"
GORMAN: Yes.
THOMPSON: And they're still undercounting Trump polls. You can make a convincing argument either way.
KANNO-YOUNGS: And I think we said, you know, I don't think there's many that think Vice President Harris has a chance of winning Iowa here.
But the trend you could pull out, if you're on her campaign, is that your message on reproductive rights is actually pushing people out and actually galvanizing folks, including in rural areas. And specifically, women, as well.
[06:20:07]
HUNT: All right. Coming up here on CNN THIS MORNING, Pennsylvania polls -- as we've just been discussing -- a dead heat on the eve of the election. We're going to talk to Mark McKinnon, who joins us with some new insights on the hundreds of thousands of Puerto Rican voters in that critical commonwealth.
Plus --
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LADY GAGA, SINGER/ACTRESS: It's time to get ready to vote. I'll see you guys in Pennsylvania.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUNT: More Hollywood A-listers lining up to campaign for Kamala Harris. Will it make a difference? We're going to talk about that and more with Pennsylvania Congresswoman Chrissy Houlahan. That's ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HUNT: All right. Welcome back. Developing right now, election week weather. The Southern Plains bracing for severe storms, strong tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, all expected in Oklahoma City and Springfield.
[06:25:09]
Over the weekend, at least five tornadoes touched down in the state, two of those categorized as EF-3s.
Let's get to our meteorologist, Derek van Dam, with more on this. Derek, good morning.
DEREK VAN DAM, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Yes, Kasie. That is a minimum of 136 mile-per-hour winds. And that left the damage you see behind me.
Look at that individual, sifting through the rubble, trying to make sense of the destruction that struck in the overnight period, adding to the danger.
Now, some of the greatest importance now is getting electricity restored to these neighborhoods, because of the polling centers and voting centers, of course, with the big election day happening tomorrow.
But no rest for the weary. Another round of severe weather possible today in and around Oklahoma City, where you saw that damage from, and to the East. This is the area where I -- highlighting some of the strongest storm potential for the afternoon and evening hours.
Even though there have been a few tornado-warned storms, there are no active warnings in terms of tornadoes at the moment. There are, however, a few severe thunderstorm warnings just to the West of Oklahoma City.
So, we're getting the act together. There's a strong upper-level environment that's fueling these thunderstorms as a cold front marches Eastward into the day tomorrow, of course, being election day.
This is the cold front. Ahead of it, record warmth. There's the weather that will impact places like Chicago all the way to Little Rock. But from New York to Atlanta, mainly dry and generally warm for Tuesday's voting forecast -- Kasie.
HUNT: All right. And we will have more of that for you tomorrow morning.
VAN DAM: Definitely.
HUNT: Derek van Dam for us. Thanks, Derek.
All right. It is, of course, all about the seven battleground states on the eve of the presidential election. Democrats hoping to keep Georgia blue after flipping the state in 2020.
Here is your look at the latest CNN poll of polls. Trump leads Harris by two points in Georgia. That is, of course, within the margin of error. There's no clear leader.
CNN's Nick Valencia, standing by live at the Gwinnett County Voter Registration Center in Lawrenceville, Georgia.
Nick, good morning.
So, Trump made --
NICK VALENCIA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.
HUNT: -- of course, so many false accusations about Georgia election workers in 2020. We saw so much high-profile activity; so many, quite frankly, lives disrupted.
How has the state prepared for 2024?
VALENCIA: Well, they're very well-prepared, Kasie. And if you believe Georgia elections officials, these are some of the most secure in the country.
The problem is, though, there are plenty of people who don't believe what they're hearing.
And over the weekend, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican, was on "60 Minutes" on CBS and talking about the deep mistrust between MAGA loyalists and the conservative election officials here, and how difficult it's been to stop the flow of election misinformation.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BRAD RAFFENSPERGER (R), GEORGIA SECRETARY OF STATE: They said there were 66,000 underage voters. There were zero.
Then they said that there's 2,423 nonregistered voters. There were zero.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But you're a Republican. He was your president.
RAFFENSPERGER: I work for the people of Georgia. I respond and I work for the voters of Georgia. My job is to run a fair, honest, accurate election.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VALENCIA: And we saw those efforts of disinformation pop up last week, Russian disinformation effort. A video circulating online, purporting to be of a Haitian migrant, who said he arrived in the country just six months ago and yet had already cast a vote for Kamala Harris and was on his way to do so again.
That video, obviously a fake, was knocked down by elections officials. But you can see what's already taking off. That video seemed to take off, have a life of its own.
Meanwhile, though, elections officials continue to push forward that message that these elections are safe and secure. You remember last time, though, this race was extremely tight, and it's shaping up to be tight again.
And for an election that was decided by just about 12,000 votes last time, it could be a similar scenario this election cycle, as well -- Kasie.
HUNT: All right. Nick Valencia for us in Lawrenceville, Georgia. Nick, thank you very much for that.
All right. Still to come here on CNN THIS MORNING, the election, of course, comes down to a handful of states. We're going to talk to Democratic Congresswoman Chrissy Houlahan about what she's seeing on the ground in her home state and actually, a very critical region, little spot in Pennsylvania that she knows a lot about.
Plus, if elected, Donald Trump considers letting RFK Jr. handle health.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. (I), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I want to be in the White House, and he's assured me that I'm going to have that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
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