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Bobby Ghosh is Interviewed about Israel-Iran Conflict; Russia Could Profit from Midde East Chaos; Avi Mayer is Interviewed about the Israel-Iran Conflict. Aired 6:30-7a ET

Aired June 18, 2025 - 06:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:31:31]

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

AUDIE CORNISH, CNN ANCHOR: We're following the breaking news out of the Middle East, the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.

Good morning, everybody. I'm Audie Cornish.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm John Berman.

Any moment now, Iran's supreme leader is expected to address his nation for the first time since Friday when these strikes began. Overnight, Israel and Iran trading new blows. Israel sent more than 50 jets to assist in strikes on Iranian centrifuge and missile production sites overnight. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office says Iran has launched more than 400 missiles toward Israel since Friday, including a new wave overnight, leading to explosions in Tel Aviv. You can hear the air raid sirens.

All while President Trump weighs the possibility of U.S. involvement. Direct U.S. involvement. Saying America's patience is wearing thin.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And a real end, not a ceasefire, an end, or a giving up entirely. It's OK too. I'm not too much in the mood to negotiate.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: Two officials, two, tell CNN, the president is warming up to the idea of using U.S. military assets to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, but he is still open to diplomatic solutions, Audie.

CORNISH: So, if the U.S. does get involved, what exactly is the goal? Terms like destabilization and regime change are being thrown around. This wouldn't be the first time the U.S. got involved in shaking things up in Iran. In fact, the U.S. helped overthrow the country's first democratically elected leader in the 1950s and reinstate the shah of Iran, a pro-western monarch. It was an act that led to Iran's revolution and the rise of its supreme leader, who wields both religious and political authority in the country.

And even if there is regime change, some lawmakers warn of the consequences that might bring.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. CHRIS MURPHY (D-CT): Whether or not Israel says that its intent is regime change, the nature of these strikes prompts the potential that this government will fall and potentially replaced by an even more dangerous regime.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: Joining me now to discuss is, Bobby Ghosh, a columnist and geopolitical analyst.

Bobby, thanks for being with us this morning.

BOBBY GHOSH, COLUMNIST AND GEOPOLITICS ANALYST: Good morning, Audie.

CORNISH: One of the things that I heard earlier today is the question of whether Iran -- whether Israel is going for regime change or just a failed state. Can you talk about the differences there?

GHOSH: Well, it seems clear that it is -- that is part of Israel's intention, although there's a lot of discussion about Iran's nuclear threat. If you look at the targeting of senior leadership, and if you look at some of the rhetoric coming out of Jerusalem, it seems quite clear that Benjamin Netanyahu's objectives include the decapitation -- that's a word that's often used -- the decapitation of both the political and military leadership of Iran.

Whether that leads to a failed state, there -- there are two questions. One is whether that is achievable. And that might be. Israel has shown that it has both the military capacity and the intelligence capacity to locate and take out senior leadership. We saw that happen in Lebanon with Hezbollah. And so, you have to assume that it can do so in Iran.

Whether that will lead to Iran becoming a failed state is a whole separate question. Iran is not like Lebanon or Iraq or like Libya or like Syria.

[06:35:01]

These are examples of countries where the removal of the top leadership led to, not just regime collapse, but societal dysfunction and political dysfunction. Iran is a -- is a -- is a very old country. The geography of Iran has -- the -- the map of Iran has been more or less established and set for a very long time. It was not an artificial construct created by colonial powers, as in many of these other countries I've named. It also has a much more homogeneous population than these other countries.

Iranians, whatever they feel about the regime, get along with each other. There's not a great deal of divide amongst themselves that would lead to a kind of civil war that we've seen in places like Libya or in Lebanon or in -- or in Iraq.

CORNISH: Yes. Right.

GHOSH: And they -- this is another very important point, Iraq -- Iran has some of the world's largest reserves of petroleum and natural gas, hydrocarbons, which means that it has access to revenues that would help it rebuild. And because those reserves are so high, it is in the global interest for those -- for Iran to be able to rebuild quickly. It is in nobody's interest for Iran to become a failed state.

If you are a part of the global economy, then Iranian oil and Iranian gas being part of that economy is very important, including, by the way, for, in America's interest, for Iran to be a stable country, regardless of what the leadership is.

CORNISH: Bobby, as you pointed out, Iran is not, quote/unquote, decapitated yet. We're expected to hear from supreme leadership today. Can you talk about what you're going to be listening for? I don't know if the fall of Iran's government is something that this leadership can survive.

GHOSH: Well, the -- the -- the leadership is going to be, I think, defiant, as it always is in these circumstances. It -- it will continue to send out the message that if the United States gets directly involved, as President Trump has been hinting, then there will be consequences for the United States and not just for Israel.

What I would be looking to hear is whether he, the supreme leader of Iran, suggests any specific targeting. Whether he, in his mind, attacking the United States means simply attacking American military installations, which has been the assumption, or whether he's prepared to widen the scope of sort of counterattack. After all, there are many ways to hurt the United States that don't involve attacking American military installations. The United States has other economic assets in the region. There are tens of thousands of Americans all over the Middle East.

And Iran has shown in the past that it is capable and willing to attack civilian targets all over the world in order to achieve what it regards as its aims. So, that would be something I would be looking forward to hearing. But to be honest, what I suspect we'll hear is more bluster from Khamenei, the supreme leader, more threats of -- of punishment and consequence. If the United States gets involved.

CORNISH: OK. Bobby Ghosh, columnist and geopolitics analyst, thank you. We -- we appreciate this.

We're actually now hearing from Iran's supreme leader. He said he will not accept an imposed peace or war. He also responded to President Trump's threats, saying, "those who know Iran's history know that Iranians do not answer well to the language of threat."

John.

BERMAN: Yes, we keep on monitoring what he is saying here. Sometimes the language is a bit circular and cryptic. We'll try to get a sense of the direction he seems to be pushing as he continues.

In the meantime, the fallout from the widening conflict between Israel and Iran could also affect Russia, Iran's strategic partner. In recent days -- now Russia's been very busy on its own. It's launched some of the deadliest drone attacks since the start of its war against Ukraine.

And remember, many of the drones it's used -- it uses are based on an Iranian design, or the flat out Iranian made. But now the Iranians may be redirecting their own drones to use against Israel, cutting off potential reserve supply for Russia. Russia could also potentially benefit monetarily from a surge in oil prices. Attacks on regional refineries have already led to the highest oil prices in nearly five months, meaning Russia's oil exports could grow even more valuable.

With us now, CNN correspondent Clare Sebastian in London.

So -- so, Clare, how could Russia factor into all of this?

CLARE SEBASTIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Russia has a unique position, John. It has a working relationship with both sides of this conflict. And case in point, President Putin actually called the leaders of both Iran and Israel when this flared up last Friday. He then, of course, also spoke to President Trump on Saturday. And President Trump has suggested that he would be open to Russia playing a role in mediating this conflict, as it has offered to do. It is hard, I will point out, to find anyone else, particularly among European countries, who thinks that's a good idea. Most people feel that Russia's actions waging war in the middle of Europe disqualifies it from mediating another conflict.

[06:40:04]

But that offer from Russia, I think, is one of the key reasons why it does stand to benefit from this. This allows Putin to essentially burnish his image as a regional power broker, a peacemaker, both at home and abroad. Though, of course, the pictures you show and the events in Kyiv in the last 48 hours tell a bit of a different story.

The second point clearly is the oil price. Oil is about a third of Russia's budget revenues, oil and gas, and the rise in the price of the back of several months of that price falling is extremely welcome, goes straight into the war economy.

And I think, thirdly, this is a distraction for the U.S., and this is a really big deal for Russia. You see this written about a lot in Russian media. They are looking at the U.S. now shifting its focus fully to the Middle East and thinking, essentially, that this provides an opening to Russia to -- to finish what it has started in Ukraine, with the U.S. looking elsewhere and also redirecting, as we've already seen it do, some of its military resources.

John.

BERMAN: Yes, again, in the meantime, as the discussions continue among all these different nations, Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, just saying that Iran will never surrender.

Clare Sebastian, thank you very much.

Audie, obviously, a lot going on as this morning develops.

CORNISH: Yes, and as people are waking up in Washington, more conversation about the future here.

We want to talk about this weapon known as the bunker buster. It's officially known as the GBU 57. And the bunker buster is a 30,000- pound bomb. It's capable of reaching Iran's most heavily fortified nuclear site.

So, this Fordo nuclear facility, it's buried deep beneath a mountain. It reportedly houses close to 3,000 sophisticated centrifuges 300 feet below the earth's surface. Bunker busters are considered the only bomb capable of destroying it. The U.S. is the only country that has them. They're 20 feet long, about 15 tons, and only the American B-2 stealth bomber can carry them.

So, if President Trump decides to target Iran's Fordo facility, we could see a scenario where an American pilot is flying an American plane and dropping an American weapon on Iran.

Joel Rubin and Kim Dozier are back with me here.

This -- the existence of this weapon is what has put this question so firmly in the hands of the U.S. in so many ways.

Kim, first, can you just talk about what it is about Fordo, why this is so significant to spot? And also, this isn't a weapon, I understand, that you can just pass off to someone else.

KIMBERLY DOZIER, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Well, the U.S. doesn't want to share it with anybody else. It's, as you said, it's about a 30,000-pound bomb and it's dropped from 30,000 to 40,000 feet up, which gives it the ability to penetrate about 200 feet into the ground.

CORNISH: Right. It was developed as an alternative to nuclear weapons. It's like if you need to penetrate something, is there another way to do it? And the U.S. developed this weapon.

DOZIER: Specifically for these kind of deep, buried complexes, because North Korea also has complexes like this. But the problem with this is, right now, the Israelis just lost a drone taken out by Iranian air defenses. So, that means you're not going to fly your B-2 stealth bomber during the day. You're probably going to fly it at night, which puts any potential attack a few hours from now. You're definitely not going to use a B-52, which can technically carry them but doesn't -- isn't as stealthy as a B-2.

And also, once you've done it, you can almost guarantee that Iran is going to strike back against U.S. forces based in Iraq, based in Syria, based throughout the gulf. U.S. ships on the sea. Iran has a number of methods like swarming a large U.S. vessel with fast boats, and it's proven with things like the attack on the USS Cole to -- they can take them out.

CORNISH: What I hear you saying is also that despite the fulsomeness of the Israeli attack to start, taking out all kinds of systems, Iran is proving that it still has the ability to respond in some way.

Joel, can you talk about, as we're talking, actually, the supreme leader is talking and talking about potential threats.

JOEL RUBIN, FORMER DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE, OBAMA ADMINISTRATION: Yes.

CORNISH: We heard a guest say that, you know, attacking personnel is not the only way Iran could hurt the U.S.

Can you talk about how this conversation lives alongside any conversation about diplomacy or a negotiating table? Why is that even still in the air, given the way this is escalating?

RUBIN: Well, you know, Audie, my -- my first thought after hearing the readout of the supreme leader's speech is he may very well have signed his own death warrant with that speech.

CORNISH: Right.

RUBIN: Because this is the attitude that has led us into the moment that we're in right now.

Look, there have been off ramps provided to the supreme leader for many years, including by the Trump team. And I'm not going to say that their diplomacy was incredibly robust. It was sort of trying to figure out what the opportunities were with Iran.

[06:4501]

But they did offer -- Secretary Rubio did offer a civilian nuclear program to Iran in exchange for no enrichment, and Iran said no. And the supreme leader continues to drive Iran in this direction. And so, I think this is a real moment.

And going to this question about Fordo. Fordo is like a pincer grip.

CORNISH: Yes. And I don't -- we might have an image of it as well just to give people a sense of what's there.

RUBIN: And what's really important to understand now is that because of the strikes that have gone forward, in many ways Fordo must be hit, because if it's not hit, the enrichment capacity there is such that Iran could quickly move to enrich to weapons grade levels and try to test a crude nuclear device. That is the fear.

CORNISH: Yes, we can see some of the images here.

RUBIN: So, now we're in that trap.

CORNISH: And I believe this is actually somewhat near a holy city in Iran. But the idea is, all of these other places that had been hit, Israel was able to harm their capacity.

RUBIN: Yes.

CORNISH: Kim, I'm in your territory now.

DOZIER: Well, there's also another location, to pick up on what Joel was saying, where there is a stockpile of enriched nuclear material just sitting there, and the Israelis haven't hit it because they would essentially create a dirty bomb. So, unless they can go in and physically take it out with commandos, if Fordo is left intact, then the Iranians can just move that 60 percent refined material to Fordo and build a weapon.

CORNISH: OK, you guys stay with me.

RUBIN: Sure.

CORNISH: There's a lot more to discuss today.

In moments -- in fact, just moments ago, CNN -- Iran's supreme leader was speaking, saying Iran will never surrender. We have reaction from on the ground in Jerusalem. Please stay with us.

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[06:50:48]

CORNISH: Just in to CNN, moments ago, Iran's supreme leader addressing his nation for the first time since the conflict began on Friday. And he has a warning for President Trump, if the U.S. intervenes, there will be, quote, "irreparable damage." He went on to say that Iran will never surrender or accept an imposed peace.

I'm going to bring in now Avi Mayer, founder of the "Jerusalem Journal."

Avi, I know that this information has just come out, but can you talk about sort of what you were hearing, some -- some aspects of the speech maybe some of us wouldn't have identified?

AVI MAYER, FOUNDER, "JERUSALEM JOURNAL": Well, Audie, we've heard a lot of rhetoric over the past few days. A lot of very scary statements and threats to the people of Israel. Last night the threat was that -- that Iran was going to attack Israel. It was something that would not be forgotten for centuries to come. It was a pretty quiet night.

And I can tell you that Israelis have learned to take threats by Iranian leaders with a heavy dose of salt. Now, that's not to say that there would not be ramifications should the U.S. participate in this effort to dismantle Iran's nuclear program. There would undoubtedly be some ramifications.

But I think that I would certainly take those threats with a -- a certain dose of salt in order to ensure that we're not sort of blowing them out of proportion. CORNISH: I also want to ask you now about leaders in the region. Their

response yesterday. King Abdullah of Jordan was speaking to the European Union, to the parliament, and he had this to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KING ABDULLAH II, JORDANIAN KING: With Israel's expansion of its offensive to include Iran, there is no telling where the boundaries of this battleground will end. And that, my friends, is a threat to people everywhere.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: So, at the same time, we're also seeing video of Jordan's air defenses mobilizing to shoot down Iranian weapons. Can you talk about this split that we're seeing in terms of how these nations are responding?

MAYER: Look, we've heard a lot of condemnations over the past few days from Arab leaders who are essentially hedging their bets. They don't know exactly how this is going to end. And there's this long standing practice of essentially criticizing pretty much anything Israel does.

Secretly, however, there isn't a single rational leader in this region, or indeed the world, who isn't breathing a sigh of relief and thanking their lucky stars that Israel has done what it has done. There's not a single country in this region that isn't safer off because of Israel's assault on Iran's nuclear program and its effort to essentially ensure that the country is defanged. Iran has proven a malign influence throughout this region and throughout the world, and there are many, many individuals and many leaders in this region who are indeed sending messages to that effect and indeed participating in Israel's defense as it engages in this war for its self-defense and survival.

CORNISH: Yes.

MAYER: Avi, I think that Israel has been very forceful and direct about what it is trying to do, as you said, dismantle this nuclear program. We're hearing also this idea of regime change. But have they laid out their vision for what victory even looks like?

Here's what Israel's president said this week.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ISAAC HERZOG, ISRAELI PRESIDENT: After all, the Iranian people have been oppressed for decades. And we -- we all believe they are fed up. And it is their chance to rise and change the regime. But it's not one of our objectives per se.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: That per se kind of doing a lot of heavy lifting there. So, what exactly would be considered a victory in this scenario? MAYER: Well, I think it's actually been stated fairly clearly, both by

President Herzog and by other Israeli leaders. The goal here is to remove the threat of annihilation from the state of Israel. It's as simple as that. That is what Iran poses -- the current regime poses to the state of Israel. They've said so very openly that they would like to wipe Israel off the map. We know that they have been developing a military nuclear program for decades now. This is an open secret. No one seriously doubts that that's the case.

CORNISH: And, Avi, can I interrupt you for a second.

MAYER: Sure.

[06:55:02]

CORNISH: I just want to make sure I'm understanding the answer here. So, is it that regime change, this ayatollah gone, this entire government, gone, is it Fordo being completely destroyed? I think people are wanting to know the answer, because it certainly determines the length of involvement.

MAYER: Look, I -- I don't think that Israelis care very much about who leads Iran. That is certainly for the Iranian people to decide for themselves. Israelis are mostly concerned for their own safety and their own survival. And so, once that threat is removed, the dismantlement of the nuclear program, either by means of some kind of diplomatic effort or indeed through military action, coupled with the removal of the threat posed by Iran's long range missile program, I think that would be considered success and that would be considered the end of this effort from Israel's perspective.

CORNISH: We've had sources telling CNN that Donald Trump is warming to the idea of U.S. military assets being used. What exactly is the request, do you think, from Israel's government that the U.S. could step in and -- and change the trajectory of this conflict?

MAYER: Look, Israel's long-standing doctrine has been that it can fight its wars for itself. It certainly appreciates the support in terms of resources, in terms of equipment that it receives from the United States and other countries. But at the end of the day, Israel knows how to fight its own wars.

There is one element of this nuclear program, as you discussed earlier, the facility at Fordo that is extremely difficult to hit by use of conventional weapons in Israel's possession, in which case it would be certainly useful, helpful for the U.S. to become involved. But we now know, based on reports this morning from "The Wall Street Journal," that Israeli officials are saying that even that can effectively be targeted should Israel be given the time to do so.

So, yes, of course it would be helpful in many respects if the U.S. were to become involved. But if it came down to it, Israel can do this on its own as well.

CORNISH: Avi Mayer is founder of the "Jerusalem Journal."

Thank you.

And if you're just joining us, Iran's supreme leader addressing his nation just moments ago. He has a warning for President Trump, if the U.S. intervenes, there will be, quote, "irreparable damage." He went on to say that Iran will never surrender or accept an imposed peace.

Now, before we go, I want to call out the difference between that National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard has said about Iran's nuclear ambitions versus that of her boss.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TULSI GABBARD, NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DIRECTOR: The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon, and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003. The IC continues to monitor closely if Tehran decides to reauthorize its nuclear weapons program.

REPORTER: Tulsi Gabbard testified in March that -- that the intelligence community said Iran wasn't building a nuclear weapon.

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I don't care what she said. I think they were very close to having one.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: It's notable because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been sounding the alarm about Iran being on the brink of developing a nuclear weapon for years.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: It will take them anywhere up to three years to cross all the nuclear technology threshold, and then it takes about a year or two to weaponize. But this, at most, would give us five years. It could very well be next year.

By next spring, at most by next summer, at current enrichment rates, they will have finished the medium enrichment and move on to the final stage. From there it's only a few months, possibly a few weeks, before they get enough enriched uranium for the first bomb.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: OK, that was in 2012.

Kim Dozier and Joel Rubin, I want to hear your final thoughts about what you're going to be listening for, at least the rest of today. We won't even take on the rest of the week.

RUBIN: Yes, Audie, I think we have to really see if the White House is willing to continue to give time to what we should call coercive diplomacy. The supreme leader, as I mentioned a moment ago, might have signed his death warrant.

That said, that doesn't mean we need to take military action. And we can continue to watch Israel degrade Iran's defenses. Or are we going to just sort of go for it? And is the president, who's an impulsive decision maker, going to decide enough is enough, I just want to -- want to go and drop this bomb and see what happens.

CORNISH: Yes. Though he's been cautious about some decisions, as we heard earlier, about potentially taking out the supreme leader.

RUBIN: Yes.

CORNISH: Saying no to that.

Kim, what are you going to be listening to?

DOZIER: I'll be watching for Trump's tweets or Truth posts this morning to see how he responds to the supreme leader. We might see in -- at nightfall in Iran a decision to go ahead with a strike.

The risk is that Iran has somewhere between 700 to 1,200 missiles in reserve. Some of them, Iran alleges, are hypersonic missiles, hard to avoid, hard to shoot down. And those could be aimed at U.S. troops and Israeli populated areas and actually cause a lot more destruction than what we've seen so far.

[07:00:01]

CORNISH: Yes, this is a very grim math that we're having to do in counting these weapons and understanding what's at stake in the region and beyond.

DOZIER: Yes.

CORNISH: I want to thank you guys for helping to guide me through this hour.

RUBIN: Thanks.

CORNISH: Very helpful.

And I want to thank you for waking up with us. As I said, "CNN NEWS CENTRAL" starts, and our breaking news coverage continues now.