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Alan Gerard is Interviewed about Texas Flooding; Trump Weather Service Cuts Under Scrutiny; Search for Survivors in Texas; Texas Hits Flood Stage in Just Hours; Musk to Create Third Party. Aired 6:30-7a ET

Aired July 07, 2025 - 06:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[06:30:00]

PAMELA BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Fun and games. But then that river turned and it -- it created this devastation.

I want to bring in Alan Gerard from Norman, Oklahoma, to speak more to that, how a river can rise so fast without more warning. He's a retired National Weather Service severe storms lab employee.

So, thanks for joining us.

ALAN GERARD, RETIRED NWS NATIONAL SERVICE STORMS LAB EMPLOYEE AND CEO, BALANCED WEATHER: Sure.

BROWN: You know, NWS and other meteorologists recognized a favorable environment for very heavy rainfall and flash flooding across central Texas a few days ahead of time. Help us understand, do they have the ability to forecast the severity of the flooding ahead? I mean, are they able to be able to predict if a storm is just going to stall and cause that much rainfall that suddenly?

GERARD: Yes, we really don't have the -- the state of the science really isn't such that we can anticipate that even more than, you know, an hour or two in advance. The unfortunate reality is, we -- we can do a pretty good job of identifying the kind of overall environment that's supportive for flash flooding. But identifying the setup for a worst-case scenario like this, which this really was, is really beyond the state of what we can do right now.

BROWN: It's just, I keep reading about how where I am right here in central Texas is one of the most flood-prone areas in the country. How are so many people caught off guard, in your view?

GERARD: Well, I mean, you're right. I mean, we, you know, we in the meteorological field, you know, colloquially refer to that as flash flood alley out there in the hill country. And it is a very vulnerable area. But the reality of it is, this really was a worst case scenario where you had six to nine inches of rain fall in just a few hours, right on top of that south fork of the river. And the unfortunate reality is all the soil and hills in that area just funnel all of that rainfall right into the river, and you can just get these tremendous flood waves that develop extremely quickly. BROWN: And my understanding is that the drought leading up to this

could have actually made things worse in terms of not being able to absorb some of that water, potentially.

GERARD: Yes, the -- the soil type in that region, that part of the reason, why it's so flash-flood prone, is that when it's dry for a prolonged period, it becomes almost like concrete and just really does not absorb rain at all. It just runs off very quickly.

BROWN: The city manager of Kerrville, Texas, was asked why there were no evacuations despite warnings from the Texas Department of Emergency Management about potentially deadly flooding. Listen to this exchange.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REPORTER: Despite TDEM's warning on July 2nd and Jully 3rd that something like this could have happened, that the threat existed, why that information didn't get down to the camps and why they weren't evacuated. Can you answer that now?

RICE DALTON, KERRVILLE CITY MANAGER: That -- that is a great question. But again, we want to make sure that we continue to focus. We still have 11 missing children that we want to get reunited with our families. Until we can get -- until we can get reunited with our family -- with their families, we are not going to -- we are not going to stop --

REPORTER: (INAUDIBLE)?

DALTON: We are not going to stop until we do. So, thank you.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Clearly ducked the question there. But what do you think? Walk us through that question of whether evacuations should have happened and whether that could have potentially added to more issues. I mean, you know, there's still a concern even there, people evacuating could get caught up in the floodwaters.

GERARD: Yes, I mean, the reality is, I mean, the way this basically works is the National Weather Service works with emergency management and local communities and in the state to get this kind of information out to the public. And as, you know, was noted in that question, Texas DEM and the Weather Service had been, you know, alerting people. Texas DEM had pre-positioned resources in the region with the knowledge that there was potential flash flooding.

But the unfortunate reality is, we don't know exactly where that heaviest rain is going to fall. So, it's really up to these local jurisdictions, and then the actual individual people to decide, you know, based on the information they have, you know, how much of a risk do they feel they're in.

In this particular case, it seems like there may have been some breakdown in communication and some of the campgrounds and some of those areas may not have been fully aware of the -- the flash flood watch and the risk, but that's something I think that will come out in time.

BROWN: Yes.

At what point, as a meteorologist, do you see the weather pattern and what's happening and kick into high gear and alert emergency management in the city and that kind of thing?

GERARD: Yes, I mean, essentially what we're trying to do with, like, a flood watch and with alerting people is to make them aware that conditions are ripe for this kind of a, you know, a torrential rainstorm to occur.

[06:35:16]

But the reality is, if -- if people, you know, evacuated or didn't go into these areas every time there was a flood watch out, it would be very difficult for these places to, you know, operate because, I mean, it does happen fairly regularly, especially at this time of year. It's a very flood-prone area. So, there's always this balance.

You know, obviously, if we could have told people this rainfall was going to occur on this river, say six to nine hours ahead of time, that would have been a different situation and I think could have supported, you know, much more proactive actions, including potentially evacuations.

Unfortunately, we don't have that kind of skill yet. We're working with research to try to develop modeling and approaches to forecasting that would enable us to better provide that kind of information, but, unfortunately, we're just not really there yet.

BROWN: All right, Alan Gerard, retired NWS national severe storms lab employee. Thank you so much.

So, Audie, still a lot of questions about the warnings and the response. Not a lot of answers right now, but, of course, we are digging out here.

AUDIE CORNISH, CNN ANCHOR: Pam, if you don't mind me asking, you obviously have a long history with this camp and you've been talking with people on the ground. What are you hearing, if anything, from parents? I mean, I saw clips earlier of two little boys talking about swimming out of a window.

BROWN: Yes, I've been speaking to parents. I've been speaking to those who work at Camp Mystic. One of the parents told me she had three daughters at that camp, that the camp counselors, who were so young, I mean, just out of high school, imagine, had to jump into action. They were waiting for the camp owner to come pick them up in the car, but the water was rising so fast they realized, he's not going to be able to get here. Sadly, Dick Eastland (ph) ended up passing away in the storms.

And so these camp counselors, I'm told by the parent, got their key out and -- and took the mesh out of the back window of the cabin, went through that window, took the girls, one by one, handed them off in chest high water up to -- so they could get up to the hill to safety. And then they just held each other.

It was in the middle of the night. It was dark. It was cold. They held each other. They sang and they prayed. After going through such a traumatizing experience. Of course, not every camper was so lucky, and not every counselor was so lucky.

But there are many stories of heroism, of counselors, of the night manager who jumped into action and made sure he went to one of the cabins and kept the girls floating on their mattresses until the water receded. There's so many stories like that that are really inspiring. And the community is still just coming together, grappling with this here.

I just -- I couldn't sleep last night, Audie, thinking about all the heartbreak here.

CORNISH: Yes, it is -- it's actually unbelievable. And the fact that there are families out there now who are still awaiting some kind of news.

Pam, we're going to stick with you today for your reporting. Thanks so much.

Now, the president says he's probably going to visit Texas Friday to survey the flood damage. He's pushing back against criticism of federal staffing cuts ahead of this deadly disaster.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: If you look at that, that -- what a situation that all is. And that was really the Biden setup. That was not our setup. But I wouldn't blame Biden for it either. I would just say, this is a 100-year catastrophe, and it's just so horrible to watch.

REPORTER: In light of the floods, do you think that the federal government needs to hire back any of the meteorologists who were fired in the last few months?

TRUMP: I -- I wouldn't know that. I really wouldn't. I would think not. This was a thing that happened in seconds. Nobody expected it. Nobody saw it. Very talented people are there, and they didn't see it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: Group chat is back.

OK, I want to talk about this, not because we are assigning blame to any government agency. But, you know, one of the first stories I ever covered was Hurricane Katrina. And there were questions that needed to be asked about FEMA, about the Army Corps of Engineers. And I think that's what's driving this now a little bit of saying, hey, where was the government in all of this?

Isaac, how do you experience this? EDWARD-ISAAC DOVERE, CNN SENIOR REPORTER: Yes, I think it's not just,

where was the government in all the lead up to it, but where is the government going to be in the cleanup of it.

And the president is pointing to what we were just hearing of some ambiguity, at least, in whether there is direct -- a direct line from the cuts to -- to what happened. But what there is not really ambiguity about is that this administration has been cutting back on FEMA and on disaster relief.

[06:40:02]

That is true across the country. It was true in Arkansas, even with his former press secretary as the governor a couple months ago. And now we, I think, there are real questions to be asked about what kind of funding there's going to be, what kind of sustained response it will be from the federal government given all of these cuts.

CORNISH: Yes, it's --

KEVIN FREY, WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT, SPECTRUM NEWS NY1: Right.

CORNISH: Yes, go ahead.

FREY: I was going to say, I mean, to go off of that point. I mean, I -- I think back to the beginning of hurricane season, which we are now entering kind of the thrust of that. Craig Fugate, who was the FEMA director under, I believe, Obama, warned at the beginning of hurricane season that because of the basically brain drain we've seen at FEMA, he is concerned that we are back to 2005 type levels, especially when it comes to just the ability to interact with local officials and local individuals on the ground because that experience is just not there.

CORNISH: Yes, because there's a couple elements we're talking about here. Theres's forecasting and the weather service.

FREY: Right.

CORNISH: There have been cuts there. Then there's the alert system. And then, as you said, there's rescue and recovery.

You know, Trump was actually asked about his pledges to eliminate or overhaul FEMA. I want you to take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REPORTER: Mr. President, are you still planning to phase out FEMA?

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Well, FEMA is something we can talk about later, but right now they're busy working. So, we'll leave it at that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SABRINA RODRIGUEZ, NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER, "THE WASHINGTON POST": I mean, I think listening to -- to President Trump say that is -- is certainly a shift for him because we have heard him repeatedly this year talk about how he wants to get rid of FEMA, about how he wants it to be local and state officials that are in charge of this. But I think here you sort of see a recognition that, OK, wait, there's going to have to be a response to what just happened. And let's not get ahead of ourselves here. This is something where the federal government is going to have to step in.

But I think to Kevin's point here, I mean, as the season goes on, you know, hurricane season, see, I'm the Floridian on this panel, so very sensitive to -- to anything related to disaster relief. I think there is a recognition that something is going to have to be done, that this is not something you can do overnight. Of course, President Trump makes shifts very quickly. So, I think it will be interesting to see in the weeks to come.

CORNISH: Yes.

DOVERE: And it does sort of take me back. I was thinking this morning about, if you remember when that train derailment happened in East Palestine under Biden, and Trump himself made a big deal out of, Biden didn't go, Pete Buttigieg didn't go, he went. So, it's -- it's a thing always to go and visit the site.

CORNISH: Yes.

DOVERE: And he seems like will go later this week.

But what happened in East Palestine is that, yes, Biden never went and Buttigieg went after Trump did. But over the course of a year and a half, two years of response and cleanup, they actually did fix that situation and -- and take care of what happened there because of what the federal government was doing, working with local authorities. And that's more than what happens with, you know, the photo op visit that all the presidents always make to these sorts of things. That's the real question here, what this looks like on here (ph).

CORNISH: Yes, and also I think it's going to be interesting. It's all fun and games when you're talking in the abstract about what could happen or issue warnings. It's very different when you are faced with those things in the moment, and that's where your politics are put to the test.

FREY: Well, I was going to -- just to build off of what she was just touching on. Like, I worked in Louisiana at the beginning of my career. And so, people there are both frustrated and understand the necessity of FEMA. They have plenty of complaints about how recovery works.

CORNISH: Yes.

FREY: The hurdles that exist. But at the same time, there are still open questions which Trump was -- was batting around right there as to, OK, but what fills the void? And is the -- the sledgehammer that Democrats have been warning about, is that going to have the ripple effects? CORNISH: OK, you guys, I want you to stick around. Thank you for this

discussion. There's actually still a lot more to talk about in this hour.

Straight ahead on CNN THIS MORNING, we're going to talk more about the search and rescue effort in that catastrophic flooding in central Texas. Dozens of people are still missing, and there's still the threat of rain.

Plus, Elon Musk declaring the formation of a third political party. How President Trump described it in just one word.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:48:33]

BROWN: We are back with our breaking news. This hour, the devastating flood in Texas. At least 82 people have died, 28 of them children. Hundreds of rescuers across nearly two dozen government agencies continue the search for survivors.

I'm live in Hunt, Texas, home to Camp Mystic, which was devastated by the floodwaters. Thirty years ago I was one of those campers sleeping in those dorms, swimming in the Guadalupe River, having the time of my life. Many of those young girls were saved by the staff at Mystic. Security guard Glenn Juenke tells CNN, quote, "each of those sweet girls were cold, wet and frightened, but they were also incredibly brave. They trusted me and we leaned on each other through a long, harrowing night together inside their cabin." He also told us that he kept the girls on their mattresses in their cabin as the water continued to rise. And then, fortunately, it receded just in time. Those girls in his cabin were saved. But as we know, several other were -- were washed away. Several bodies have been found, and several are still missing.

I'm joined now by my colleague, correspondent Leigh Waldman.

Leigh lived in this area for several years. You know the Texas hill country well. And you know where we are right now really well. This is the Hunt Store, kind of the gathering for this community where people would come to have a good time after being on the river.

Tell us more about this store that is now dilapidated, but -- but still the center of the community.

LEIGH WALDMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Pam, I mean you can see the -- the donations behind us here. This is a spot where people here, they would get off the river after floating the river.

[06:50:04]

It's a beloved tradition here in Texas. Not only the Guadalupe, but the Comal. Like, all of these rivers were meeting points during the summertime when the sun was up. And this was a music venue. It was a restaurant where families would come for lunches, for dinners. There used to be a post office on the other side of the Hunt Store. It was a white brick building, and it's -- it's gone. It's washed off the map. It's no longer here. You can see what's left behind by the -- the gas pumps here. Everything is destroyed. And -- and you come here and it takes your breath away once you know what this used to be.

And I know people want this returned. I have friends who were here on Thursday. They were texting me. They -- they got off of the river. They were here. And now, seeing the images of it, it takes your breath away because this was a staple here in this community.

BROWN: And in many ways it still is. I came here last night after my live shots and I spoke to several members of the community, and they were just gathered here, hugging each other, crying, grieving. Everyone had a story of loss or a feeling of, oh my gosh, I can't believe I survived this. And just -- they're still in a state of shock, frankly. But it is really inspiring to see how they're coming together.

And I spoke to the co-owner of the Hunt Store as well. And she told me this harrowing story of how the general manager and her daughter nearly escaped. They were in an apartment right up there. And now the roof is collapsed and they were able to get on the roof and ride it out.

Here's what she had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HALEY LEHRMANN, CO-OWNER, HUNT STORE: I was really just concerned. My general manager and her daughter were in the apartment upstairs. And she called --

BROWN: We'll walk over here.

LEHRMANN: Yes. She called about 4:30-ish and said that there was water in the apartment. And the apartment is above the store. So, I just couldn't wrap my head around that. And --

BROWN: Because the apartment is -- was right up here.

LEHRMANN: Yes. Y es.

BROWN: And so, you thought, well, how did the water get all the way up there?

LEHRMANN: Yes. I thought she was maybe talking about like there was a leak or something like -- I just couldn't fathom. And she said, no, it's the river. And we just -- I just -- yes, I said, get on the roof as fast as you can. And they stayed there until the water receded.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: So, there are so many stories of -- like that where people, you know, evacuated, in this case, a mother and her daughter and very fortunate to be where they were on that roof because, as she said there, as we heard from Haley Lehrmann, the other side collapsed. But there are so many stories told and still a lot of just grappling

with the loss here and the concern for those still missing as the search and rescue is still underway.

WALDMAN: Absolutely. You know, I have friends from college who live in Kerrville. I went to school. I grew up in Texas. And my friends say they have dozens of people they have not been able to hear from who they don't see their homes, they don't see their RVs anymore. They're waiting to hear about their loved ones. Former colleagues tell me they have loved ones and friends who had kids at Camp Mystic. Unfortunately, some of their children have died. Others, they don't know where their children are.

And we know that there's camps that have been here for decades all along the Guadalupe, because it's a beautiful part of Texas. It's why people flock to the hill country. You spent time and have cherished memories at Camp Mystic.

BROWN: Yes.

WALDMAN: So, to see what it's become, I'm sure even for you it's heartbreaking. It's hard to wrap your mind around what happened here.

BROWN: Yes, Camp Mystic left an indelible mark on me. I was ten years old and I came here and I found it to be such a magical place. And it has been that for so many generations of campers. You get there on the ground and you feel a sense of peace and calm and joy. And so much of your days are spent in nature, in that river, playing, playing games, laughing. You're just so full of joy. And to think about that river being the source of the devastation and terror, I just, I can't get over that.

And to think about what these young campers have been through, I couldn't sleep last night thinking about that, thinking about those young girls. I couldn't help but see myself in those young girls. You know, you have so much innocence at that age, and not only lives have been lost, but innocence has been lost too.

WALDMAN: Absolutely.

BROWN: Leigh Waldman, thank you so much.

Audie, back to you.

CORNISH: Thank you, Pam.

Now, this flooding disaster unfolded extremely quickly, as you've been hearing. It made it difficult to get out of harm's way. This time lapse video shows just how far the waters rose, how fast it happened, and this shows the water spiking to major flood levels along the Llano River in just the span of an hour.

So, a flood gauge from another river, the Guadalupe River, shows the water levels rose more than 22 feet early Friday morning, triggering the flash flooding disaster.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SCOTT WALDEN, FLOOD VICTIM: Over (INAUDIBLE) five minutes, the water went from like right there to right here. And then another ten minutes, the water was like this high. It was scary. It was really scary.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[06:55:04]

CORNISH: So, how did this happen? How did this storm turn into such a major emergency so quickly? We're joined now by CNN meteorologist Derek Van Dam.

DEREK VAN DAM, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Audie, there are multiple reasons why this disaster unfolded. But in terms of the climate, we know that climate change is making heavy rain events more frequent and more intense. And it all boils down to water vapor.

So, imagine our atmosphere as this balloon. As it warms, it expands, allowing it to hold more water vapor. Just like a bigger balloon can hold more air. Now, of course, the atmosphere doesn't expand in the same way that this balloon does, but it's all about the capacity of the air to hold moisture at these higher temperatures as the earth warms.

And we certainly had a lot of water vapor to work with. And I want to show you this, because this is significant. We have this water vapor imagery from SERA (ph), and it shows the tropical influence, in fact, the remnants of a Tropical Storm Barry, which made landfall well to the south, that stuck over the same region and held on for several days. And unfortunately, it was at the confluence of the Guadalupe River, where the majority of this flooding took place.

Now, we've got a lot of evidence that strings together climate change and not only drought, but also these heavy rain events. We get stronger evidence connecting the two And we certainly had some of the worst drought conditions across America at this time once the heavy rain overtook these extremely dry, dry ground.

So, it overtook this ground. It super saturated everything in the atmosphere, and it fell from the sky in buckets. We're talking three to seven inches per hour for an extended period of time, allowing for the rain gauges to max out over a foot in many locations.

And we're not done yet. There's not a lot of steering winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere to push this remnant tropical moisture out of the region. So, they have extended this flash -- or this flood watch through these same hard-hit areas and even extended it a little further towards the east, near Austin. So, not only is Kerrville, Kerr County and the other locations along the Guadalupe River under threat for more additional rainfall and flash flooding, the area to the east is also at threat as well. So, we need to keep a close eye to the sky. We need to keep very in tune with the local weather forecasts on the ground because it's very, very challenging to pinpoint exactly where the heaviest rainfall will take place. It's a very isolated amount. They talked about it in their discussions

this morning. Isolated pockets of ten inches or more possible with today's rainfall. That doesn't mean everybody will get ten inches. But the locations that do, that could overwhelm the drought-stricken areas of Texas. And we know what the result is when we get that amount of rain in that short period of time.

Audie.

CORNISH: That's CNN meteorologist Derek Van Dam. Thank you so much.

All right, you guys, I want to turn to the last topic of today, which is somewhat related, frankly, which is Elon Musk and his politics.

The man behind DOGE now has a new mission for himself. And that is to create a third party somehow. It's going to be called the America Party. And the spark is him being upset, allegedly, about the big, beautiful bill.

I have to be honest. I'm -- I can't think of a person who is, like, more unpopular in a lot of ways. I'm -- I'm being very generous here, politically.

FREY: Yes.

CORNISH: But, Isaac, who --

DOVERE: Look, the last successful third party was the Republican Party. It started in 1856, who got a presidential candidate elected in 1860. It is a hard thing to do.

That said, Musk has a lot of money. And you are right about his political unpopularity, but many people --

CORNISH: And by that I mean Democrats are very much not interested.

DOVERE: For sure. Yes.

CORNISH: And now perhaps he's rocked the boat with his Trump support.

DOVERE: I don't think perhaps. Definitely. And that said, many people doubted that he would actually follow through with the spending that he promised he would do for Trump. And he did. Many people doubted that he would be a really effective force in DOGE cuts, and he was.

CORNISH: Yes.

DOVERE: So, let's see what happens here.

CORNISH: You guys.

RODRIGUEZ: Yes, I mean, hearing him speak about why he's doing this, I mean, he talks about, you know, that there's no -- the political middle doesn't have a party. And that is a fact. I mean, going out and talking to folks, you know, increasingly people don't identify with either party. They look at both parties as out of touch, not actually helping Americans. Poll after poll shows that going out and talking to people, you hear it. So, he certainly is identifying that.

But again, with his unpopularity, with how difficult it is to establish that party, I think it's going to be sort of made uphill.

CORNISH: Yes. And you don't have to win. You can certainly alter the future of an election.

FREY: I just was going to say, you can -- if you can play the spoiler in some sense, perhaps.

[07:00:01]

And especially if you're willing to throw millions and millions, billions of dollars into these sorts of things. And he certainly has no shortage of that.

My question is, what is the constituency here? Because, as you mentioned, Democrats aren't in favor. And Republicans are sticking with Trump. They seemingly aren't being swayed by him. Is this a fiscally conservative, socially moderate party? Like, what does -- what is the -- the image here?

CORNISH: Yes. And as people think about what his political legacy is, there's going to be a lot of questions.

I want to thank you for being with us. And please stay, because we've got lots of reporting out of Texas about that flooding.

"CNN NEWS CENTRAL" starts right now.

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