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Sources: U.S. Likely Hit Iranian School Due to Outdated Intel; U.S. Plans to Release 172M Barrels of Emergency Oil; FBI Memo Warns of Iran-Affiliated Drone Threats in California. Aired 6:30-7a ET

Aired March 12, 2026 - 06:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[06:30:00]

AUDIE CORNISH, CNN ANCHOR: All right. Welcome back to our breaking news coverage of the war with Iran. I'm Audie Cornish. Thank you for joining me on CNN This Morning. It's half past the hour, and here's what's happening right now.

Sources briefed on initial findings of an investigation say the U.S. accidentally hid an Iranian elementary school, likely due to outdated intelligence. Iranian state media reports the attack killed at least 168 children and 14 teachers. And more than 30 countries have agreed on a plan to release 400 million barrels of oil into the global market. This is the largest release of emergency oil in history. As part of that, the U.S. will also release more than 170 million barrels starting next week.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, U.S. PRESIDENT: The International Energy Agency agreed to coordinate the release of a record 400 million barrels of oil from various national petroleum reserves around the world, which will substantially reduce the oil prices as we end this threat to America and this threat to the world. We don't want to leave early, do we? We got to finish the job, right?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel again last night. They have creeped down a little bit this morning. We're going to keep an eye on it. And of course, oil is the big target as the U.S. war with Iran spreads to the sea. New video of two foreign oil tankers on fire in the waters off of Iraq. Iran claims it launched the attack that killed at least one person. And in the last few hours, there's been a fresh wave of attacks across Gulf states. Here in Oman, video showing the moment that a drone reportedly hit an oil facility at a port there.

And you heard a short time ago, the president saying the U.S. has already won and that it's just a matter of time of when they want the war to stop.

So, joining me now, CNN Chief International Security Correspondent Nick Paton Walsh. He's joining us from Jordan. Nick, we have heard here and there some social media posts and things from Iran. But can you talk about what a realistic off-ramp is?

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTENTIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: It's very hard to see at this point exactly how President Trump gets to declare victory in all of this without having to tacitly also accept that the Iranians haven't stopped the fight. There's a byproduct of the decapitation strike that we saw at the very beginning of this conflict, the removal of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. That left a vacuum, which appears to have been filled by IRGC hardliners, and they appear to have had a candidate that they're at least happy with, Mojtaba, Khamenei's son, taking the supreme leader's spot.

But Mojtaba isn't really a public figure prior to this, even less so now he has the job, fearing assassination, but also somebody who's very much been out of the spotlight. And so, there is a potential here, whereas the IRGC ultimately, their decimated ranks, their likely desire for vengeance for the removal of their hierarchy again and again through Israeli and American strikes, that may be dictating the plays here.

And they're also coming up against the familiar issue with the application of U.S. military power, that the American military often sells a project that is short-lived, fast, effective, and can be rounded off quite soon, but often meets an enemy, whose commitment to the task is often significantly stronger, because they live in the place that is being attacked, where the war is being fought, and wish to exact a price on the people they see as the invader or the occupier.

So, I think we're in a point now here where clearly President Trump's messaging for days has been, we've won, his officials have said, we define victory as we see it. But at the same time, because Trump isn't seeing any political concession from the Iranian side, he keeps saying we have to finish the job, because you can't fight a war if you're basically saying there's a limited timeline of how much longer you're willing to fight.

[06:35:00]

So, he's in this very complex place with the entirely predictable consequence that the Strait of Hormuz, which everybody can't get out of, could have told you was potentially going to be challenged or interrupted, and where we see six vessels hit, we see fuel depots nearby on fire, that that is being used to squeeze the U.S. economy. Another entirely predictable result of launching a war on this scale in an area where so much of the world's hydrocarbons emerged from.

So, we're in this really messy moment where it's going to be incredibly hard for President Trump to simultaneously pull this to a close in his own unilateral way, and find some kind of change in Iranian behavior that leads him to feel he's got the defeat that he ultimately wanted. The Iranians can continue to attack on a lower level, they continue to launch rockets, and that is ultimately going to inhibit President Trump's ability to say, well, we won, we can stop.

CORNISH: OK. That's Nick Paton Walsh in Jordan. Thank you for your time. I want to turn to this reporting on sources telling us that a military investigation found that the U.S.'s outdated intelligence led to that strike on the Iranian elementary school. President Trump has repeatedly claimed that it was potentially the case for Iran.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: No, in my opinion, and based on what I've seen, that was done by Iran. We think it was done by Iran. Because they're very inaccurate, as you know, with their munitions. They have no accuracy whatsoever. It was done by Iran.

I will say that the Tomahawk, which is one of the most powerful weapons around, is sold and used by other countries. Numerous other nations have Tomahawks. They buy them from us. But I will certainly, whatever the report shows, I'm willing to live with that report.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: All right. Here's what he said yesterday after he was asked about it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A new report says the military investigation has found it was the United States that struck the school.

TRUMP: I don't know about that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: OK. Alex Plitsas, CNN national security analyst and director of the counterterrorism program for the Atlantic Council, is here in the chat. And man, we needed you. So, here is the thing. I'm hearing from, you know, the White House, the Republican establishment, and it is saying this. The media is making a big deal out of this thing, and that that is not fair.

But one of the reasons why I think people are interested is, if there was an imminent threat, if we've modeled going into Iran for years, why out of the gate would there be an error in a strike?

ALEX PLITSAS, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST AND DIRECTOR, COUNTERTERRORISM PROGRAM, ATLANTIC COUNCIL: So. I mean, at this point, we've struck something like 5,000 targets, and this is the only time we've heard of a target like this being struck by accident.

CORNISH: That's a pretty big one, right? I mean, to me, this feels, it's not like --

PLITSAS: It's big because of the outcome that happened, and I'm not going to diminish that by any means. There were 168 innocent people that were reportedly killed, and that is a travesty that we can't ignore.

CORNISH: And it was near a base. So, that's why I'm asking.

PLITSAS: That's precisely.

CORNISH: That sense of like, wait a second, was it an error? Someone on the panel was talking about the idea of there being somehow an actual error in the intelligence, or is it outdated? Did we launch something and not really have a grasp on where we were aiming those missiles?

PLITSAS: So, it appears to be outdated intelligence, and here's why. The compound itself, there were about six buildings right adjacent to each other, and then the school was sort of adjacent to the side. It appears that a wall had been built in between somewhere over the last decade or so when the building transitioned to a school. So, it appears it was part of an old target deck.

And the pilots are moving through, we call it an air-tasking order. So, they're moving down a series of targets in order. They're not hitting targets of opportunity. So, it wasn't that a pilot saw something and dropped, you know, a bomb. It was a missile, by all accounts, that came in. So, unfortunately, it appears coordinates were entered for an old building based on outdated intelligence. So, it would have actually been a targeting error.

CORNISH: So, you can see how people would then be like, well, wait a second. I thought we were ready for this I thought we had all the intelligence. I thought the Israelis were helping us. Like, what happened?

PLITSAS: Sure. I mean, this is -- again, it appears to be an isolated incident out of 5,000 strikes. We're not hearing like a lot of these. So, unfortunately, it does appear that one slipped through on this one and led to catastrophic circumstances where 168 innocent people were killed.

CORNISH: One of the reasons why I'm also interested in this is under Pete Hegseth and his Defense Department posture, which says we need to be more lethal, we need to streamline the red tape, he has downgraded some attorneys. He has said they shouldn't be clouding or muddying the line of decision-making. Can we expect oversight from a military that is literally downgrading the legal observers, the legal guys?

PLITSAS: Sure. So, there's still operations law attorneys who have to review all the strikes that are going on. So, U.S. Central Command, which is our military command that's responsible for the Middle East and Central Asia, is overseeing this at a four-star level, which is Admiral Brad Cooper.

[06:40:00]

He has lawyers in there as well that review the strike packages when they come in and make sure that they're legal. We're not seeing illegal targets being struck. These all appear to be to conform with the law.

CORNISH: But do you know what I mean, are the watchers there? Are the watchmen doing any watching? PLITSAS: So, at the command where it's happening, yes, and then I think the question for you is an oversight, right, at the most senior level. So, at least it appears now the Pentagon is investigating and they're going to come forth with the report, so I think we'll find out very quickly if the oversight is as robust as it is.

CORNISH: Yes, you're saying come forth, that's where I got to ask Betsy. Come forth. Fourth has been very vague for the administration. We heard about some of those soldier injuries a lot later than they happened. So, what are you hearing about how they're trying to handle this, or is the plan, say, as we just heard, it's one of 5,000 strikes and this is a war?

BETSY KLEIN, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Well, I think it was a very revealing moment yesterday when our colleague Kristen Holmes asked the president that question that you saw, and he said, I don't know. The issue is that this White House is going to have to figure out what their message is for this, because it's very clear that the U.S. military was involved according to this preliminary investigation, and it doesn't seem like they have resolved how they are going to talk about this.

CORNISH: Do you guys think this is starting to reach the public? The injuries, the seven deaths, the civilian casualties. I ask because now this is going to be, again, one of the many distinctions of the Trump era and the Trump doctrine, how they prosecute a war.

MIKE DUBKE, FORMER TRUMP WHITE HOUSE COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: What I think is fair is for the media to question the president coming out so early to saying, I think it's Iran. I think that is fair to question that. Really what he should have done is, we're waiting for, frankly, what Secretary Hegseth said. We're waiting for the report.

I think, Alex, you're reporting on one of 5,000 mistakes are made, and unfortunately, actually more than 168, but with the teachers, 170 some odd lives were lost. But mistakes are made in war, and we need to accept that. I think the American people can accept that, if that's the explanation that comes out, but we can't get ahead of our skis. That's the problem.

CORNISH: OK. What are you hearing?

V. SPEHAR, DIGITAL JOURNALIST AND CREATOR, UNDER THE DESK NEWS: Listen, I'm very uncomfortable with us saying it was one mistake out of 5,000 strikes. How do we know that the 5,000 strikes were all perfectly done? I mean, there are going to be civilian casualties, and I think that that sort of diminishes the idea. Congress has not declared war, so we can't say, oh, we're at war. It's the fog of war. It's the fog of an excursion, according to Donald Trump.

CORNISH: (INAUDIBLE) were like this.

SPEHAR: And I think where we are different in this war compared to, like, when I was a young person and we were doing Iraq and Afghanistan war, is that people have cell phones. Citizen journalism is top-notch right now. We're seeing on-the-ground reporting from Iranian families who are able to get messages out somehow to their American family members, who are showing the truth of what's happening. So, we're not just getting the --

CORNISH: Yes. There's a massive Iranian diaspora.

SPEHAR: And when it comes to the military families, they are getting messages out, too, that they're doing what they need to do. But yes, people are very concerned for the way that we are being withheld information when it comes to how many casualties there are. It was five. Now, we know there's 37. Maybe there's 150 in Germany in the sick bays. Just tell the truth.

CORNISH: I think I want to say that I find CENTCOM, Caine, they come out, they just say what's going on. It's the distance between the military voice and the way the White House frames things. I know you don't consider yourself political, so you don't have to answer that. But it is -- I mean, it is a part of this conversation. We see every past war through the lens of how it was politically prosecuted.

PLITSAS: Sure. I mean, just to be clear, one in 5,000 was more as a ratio of how often this is happening to see if there's a systemic problem. The target decks all need to be reviewed. The first thing that pops up now is how many other targets potentially were missed in this entire cycle, and that does need to be validated. My understanding is that exercise has gone underway.

There's actually -- there's elements within the military that are responsible for reviewing these targets to make sure they're not struck. There was actually a second one in that compound that may have been questionable because I believe there was an IRGC medical clinic which also would have been prohibited from being struck.

CORNISH: Yes.

PLITSAS: So, not knowing what was going on inside the building also could have led to a problem. So, you're 100 percent correct there, so I didn't want to have that taken as a characterization that that's somehow acceptable. It's more, is there a more systemic problem that we're not seeing? So, far the evidence hasn't popped. It doesn't mean, Rumsfeld's famous phrase, right, the absence of evidence doesn't mean evidence is absent. We may not have seen it, to your point, with citizen journalists, but, you know, we'll see what pops up. And --

CORNISH: Wasn't there literally, though, a civilian office, like an office to look at civilian casualties that was among those that face cuts?

PLITSAS: I believe that that was the case. There were cuts there. There were also civil affairs officers, it's a branch within the military, who are also at Central Command, who are working alongside them, who also help to remove things, identify schools, mosques, et cetera., medical things that help with the targeting. So, that's part of the targeting process.

[06:45:00] CORNISH: Yes. Well, listen, you guys stay with us, we're going to have a lawmaker here, and this is important because if there's, when we talk about oversight, who's going to do that oversight? So, let's talk about more of the politics here. You've got California Governor Gavin Newsom responding to a warning here in the U.S. Federal authorities said in a memo that there were unverified claims that Iranian affiliated actors aspired to launch drone strikes targeting California.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. GAVIN NEWSOM (D-CA): As it relates to drone strikes, we're -- you know, we've been aware of that information. Drone issues have been always top of mind, and we've assembled some work groups specifically around those concerns. But that's all I'll share at the moment. I have nothing more insightful beyond just what's been reported and how we're transmitting what we know to our local partners, which is critical.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: OK. Turning to you guys to talk about this, I have to admit, alongside this claim, which unverified, they haven't showed us what it is, there were actually a pro-Iranian hack on a major U.S. medical devices maker.

KLEIN: Yes, well, this would be one of those instances where it would be good to know that the White House had a good working relationship with the governor of California. But setting that aside, we really haven't heard a lot of messaging on the enhanced threats that we should expect during a conflict like this from the Department of Homeland Security. That is in part because they're experiencing a shutdown. But we're also seeing, to Alex's point, all these consequences of DOGE cuts in this war conflict short --

CORNISH: Yes. And I'll show you Governor Newsom's tweet on this, where he says, look, we're not aware of any imminent threats at this time. We remain prepared for any emergency in our state. And then I feel like that relationship, then all of a sudden there was like a bunch of bickering. Can you explain sort of what happened here?

KLEIN: Well, there's just been chronic back and forth between President Trump and Governor Newsom. And just last night he attacked, Newsom has a new book out where he talked about his diagnosis with dyslexia, and he opens up about how it motivated him to work harder. The president now attacking him as saying he has a disability.

CORNISH: Yes. So, the Trump -- Trump is saying he has mental problems and calling it a cognitive mess, and Newsom replying the way he does these days in dark woke, what do they call it?

SPEHAR: It's dark woke, yes. Also, a lot of the coolest people have dyslexia, myself included. You know, there's -- it's not a mental disability, it's just -- it requires you to work harder.

CORNISH: His response to it was, I know that's hard for a brain-dead moron who bombs children and protects pedophiles to understand. SPEHAR: And you know what, that's why he's the governor.

DUBKE: That's what dark woke mean?

KLEIN: So, I'm glad that that's the discourse that we're having, at the same time that there are very serious.

CORNISH: Yes. See, we left you out of that one. All right. Stay with us, because we've got senators who are demanding answers about the war with Iran.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. LISA MURKOWSKI (R-AK): Today, the president says we're almost done, and then we hear from others that, well, it's going to be weeks, maybe, maybe months.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: Will the White House agree to public hearings? Democratic Senator Peter Welch joins the group chat, and later on CNN. We're going to keep talking about those oil prices, right now hovering around $100 a barrel. Will the emergency release of reserves be enough to stabilize the market? Energy Secretary Chris Wright will be on CNN in the next hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:50:00]

CORNISH: Congress preparing to soon get a request from the Trump administration for more defense funding to keep up its war on Iran. So, far, the price tag is estimated to be more than $11 billion. That's according to some Senate Democrats. One Republican senator says that she needs more clarity from the White House in hearings before signing off on additional funds.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. LISA MURKOWSKI (R-AK): People kind of want to know, what can we expect with this? Is this going to be a war that continues and continues? What will it cost? We're already seeing the cost in terms of lives, having lost seven service members. These are not unreasonable questions for Americans to be asking.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: Joining the group chat, Senator Peter Welch, Democratic senator from Vermont. Thank you so much for being here. I wanted to talk to you because you're in that wing of the party that is way more dovish, does not believe that this is a legal war. So, what does that mean when the Defense Department comes to you, which they will, and say, we need more money?

SEN. PETER WELCH, (D-VT), SENATE JUDICIARY COMMITTEE: Well, first of all, I wanted to dispute the dovish. I'm for national security. This is a mistake. So, the president coming in asking for money for a war that he won't acknowledge we're in, and where he hasn't even come to the American people and explained what his objective is. The answer to that is no.

We haven't had any hearings. We've had a few secret briefings. But you know what? Those are useless because we can't talk about what it is we're told, not that we're told all that much. So, the president owes it to the American people to explain what the war is.

CORNISH: Yes. But as Colin Powell once said, like when you break it, you bought it. And it feels like the U.S. is now in the middle of what could be a protracted war. So, what if you guys say no? What does that mean for the service members, for the Strait of Hormuz? That's like we're in it now.

WELCH: Right. But we're at a point of enormous inflection because the question here is not about the nuclear program, which the president said is obliterated. It's not about the missiles, which he said have been severely degraded. It's about whether this is going to be regime change and that requires ultimately boots on the ground. That is absolutely essential.

[06:55:00]

CORNISH: Can you yank funding midstream?

WELCH: Can the president deny us any information before we're going to send men and women into Iran and be in harm's way? And are we going to get into yet another forever war? You know, what you have here is a war that was started with executive overreach. Should that be met with congressional capitulation? I mean, this is our job. And the fact is that there is a real question about what the long-term plan is for the president, because if this is regime change and that's how it's looking with the intensification of the bombing, then that is a question where the American people do not want that to happen.

CORNISH: All right. Our folks here are going to have some questions, but I just want to ask you one other thing, which is that, you know, CNN is reporting an Iran linked cyber-attack on a medical device maker Stryker. I just want to show you this headline. The reason why I'm asking is because cybersecurity is under the Department of Homeland Security, funding of which currently held up by Democrats over ICE tactics. Do you need to take a break on the ICE conversation to make sure that the U.S. is prepared for threats?

WELCH: Well, two things. Number one, we need to fund that. So, we have put legislation on the floor and we're prepared to vote for it to open up the TSA and the cyber resources that we have in FEMA.

CORNISH: Yes.

WELCH: Our beef is with ICE. You know, what happened in Minneapolis cannot happen again. Two innocent people getting shot.

CORNISH: So, you're holding on to the ICE red line, even if it might be at the risk of delaying that? WELCH: Well, let's be clear here. We're saying let's fund those.

CORNISH: Right. But with the reforms?

WELCH: We're ready to do it. We can fund those today and have a separate battle about ICE. I mean, the bottom line here is that ICE should be subject to the same requirements that every police department in this country is subject to. Why are they the exception? And we saw what happened when they did.

So, our point of view is let's have our ICE debate. By the way, they're funded.

CORNISH: Yes. Yes, they are.

DUBKE: That's the key.

CORNISH: They are.

DUBKE: They're funded.

CORNISH: Because these other departments aren't. That's why I want to ask.

DUBKE: The other departments are, and ICE --

CORNISH: Now, (INAUDIBLE) that position.

DUBKE: -- which is holding all of this up is already funded, but we don't have the funding. So, I'm very surprised that Republicans wouldn't jump on that legislation because they know ICE is funded. Why not fund TSA? Why not fund FEMA?

WELCH: That's exactly right.

DUBKE: So, there's -- I feel like there's something more to this.

CORNISH: Is there? I think that's a question.

DUBKE: That is a question.

WELCH: They're holding back on ICE.

CORNISH: Yes.

WELCH: They don't want to change ICE. That's the bottom line.

DUBKE: But ICE is funded.

WELCH: They want a free hand.

DUBKE: For at least at least eight months.

SPEHAR: They don't want to admit that what they were doing was wrong. They don't want to admit that wearing face masks was wrong. They don't want to admit that their tactics were ineffective and wrong. And they'd have to sort of admit that if they were willing to make changes.

CORNISH: I want to ask about something we've been talking about all morning. Oil prices. You have Senator Rick Scott saying that higher prices are just short-term. It's a short-term cost of preventing a nuclear Iran. Here he is.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SEN. RICK SCOTT (R-FL): So, I mean, we all want gas prices to come down. Nobody wants gas prices higher. This president doesn't want gas prices higher. But we have to be realistic. If you believe that Iran was going to use nuclear weapons against us, we had no choice but to do this. And there are problems short-term.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WELCH: Wishful thinking. I mean, this oil price increase in this ongoing war with no end in sight, no definition to what the objective is, and where the Netanyahu objectives are significantly different than the American objectives. I mean, he's fine with a failed state in Iran.

CORNISH: Yes. But can you stipulate that there has been a degradation of their missile capacities? I mean, do you see parts of the military operation that have been a success?

WELCH: Yes. That's what I said. The nuclear program has been obliterated. That's a good thing. The missile program has been severely degraded. That's a good thing. Those are two military successes. But the question of whether we now go into making Iran a failed state --

CORNISH: Making Iran a failed state.

WELCH: Well, if you have this massive bombing and you destroy all the civilian infrastructure, then a failed state is absolutely not in our national interest. Netanyahu doesn't care. He thinks a failed state in Iran is fine. But we saw what happened with a failed state in Iraq.

So, we're seeing the moment where history can start repeating itself. This is extremely urgent. So, this question about funding is really about, what's the point here? What are we doing? What's the objective? And that question has to be asked now. And --

CORNISH: Are Republicans ready to ask it?

WELCH: Well, I'm not seeing it. You saw Senator Murkowski. They want some answers to this. But the bottom line here is that this is absolutely serious --

[07:00:00]